Bur14Kes17 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 GaryComing off a season where every Canadian franchise failed to make the Stanley Cup playoffs, we’re ready to play prognosticator in this space, predicting (by percentage) the chances each of the seven clubs has at finding their way back into the postseason to chase a championship next spring. Montreal Canadiens - 95 per cent Preseason prediction - 75 per cent Current Point Percentage: .739 Point Percentage needed to make Playoffs: .508 Will they make it? Absolutely. Well almost. It’s hard to throw around certainties in early December, but the Habs are close to a lock. Montreal is 16-5-2 for 34 points and first in the Atlantic Division. They have a plus 19 goal differential, and with 67 goals for, have proven to be much more than just Carey Price. Price is still their MVP and key to their success. Without him the Habs are a much more ordinary team, as backup Al Montoya’s record of 3-3-0 would suggest. Still, the emergence of Alex Galchenyuk and the impact of newcomers Shea Weber and Alexander Radulov are storylines that can’t be ignored. Lemay: Everyone has to produce for the Habs to break scoring slump RDS analyst Martin Lemay joined McKenna, Starr and special co-host Arpon Basu from LNH.com to preview the Habs versus the Sharks. What they need: GM Marc Bergevin needs to add a top-four defenceman and a second-line centre. Driving possession from the back end has been a missing component as a result of P.K. Subban's departure. Nathan Beaulieu, who started the season as Weber's partner, has fallen down the depth chart. Centre Tomas Plekanec isn’t getting it done, and his line with Brendan Gallagher and Max Paciorettyhas struggled as a result. Scott Cullen’s Statistically Speaking Stat: .947 SV% – A healthy Price is about all the Habs need. They are a solid enough team otherwise, but the best save percentage in the league is the foundation for their success. Ottawa Senators - 75 per cent Preseason prediction - 55 per cent Current Point Percentage: .625 Point Percentage needed to make Playoffs: .554 Will they make it? It sure looks like it. At 14-8-2 they have 30 points and are a top-five team in the East. They’ve become a stingy defensive squad, and that’s the foundation for success. With 59 goals against they’re in the top half of the NHL and they’ve been getting brilliant goaltending from Craig Anderson. Coach Guy Boucher has made the Senators a tough team to play against. The resurgence of Dion Phaneuf and Cody Ceci as a second pairing has gone a long way to make the Senators a better matchup team. Garrioch: Sens in the market for a forward Steve and Todd are joined by Postmedia's Bruce Garrioch to talk about the Sens 3-2 OT loss last night, they chat about the possible outdoor game at TD Place and look ahead to tomorrow's game against the Panthers. What they need: More Scoring. The loss of winger Clarke MacArthurput a hole in Ottawa’s top six which they haven’t been able to fill. Can GM Pierre Dorion find a way to add punch to a lineup that knows how to defend? That’s a huge storyline for the Senators moving forward. Scott Cullen’s Statistically Speaking Stat: 2.21 Goals/60 – The Buffalo Sabres and Vancouver Canucks are the only teams scoring at a worse overall rate than the Senators. They’ve received great goaltending from Anderson, which has led to a solid record, but without more goals, trouble is on the horizon. Edmonton Oilers - 65 per cent Preseason prediction - 40 per cent Current Point Percentage: .560 Point Percentage needed to make Playoffs: .561 Will they make it? The West isn’t as powerful this season and the Oilers have spent a lot of time near the top of the Pacific. Edmonton is 13-10-2 for 28 points. They’re a streaky bunch, and a lot of nights they can outscore their defensive lapses. Head coach Todd MacLellan has done a nice job converting this team from an easy opponent into a threat. Connor McDavid is among the best players in the league and he’s getting help from a lot of different spots in the lineup. The Oilers have pop. Oilers flex offensive muscles in win over Jets Sara Orlesky and Gary Lawless take a closer look at the Oilers' offensive outburst against the Jets, break down Patrik Laine's two-goal effort and discuss Winnipeg's overall play as of late. What they need: Above all, time. In a year or two this roster is going to be a heavyweight in the NHL. They need a right-shot defenceman who can work on the power play. Goalie Cam Talbot is among the busiest in the NHL right now. He could use some help. Scott Cullen’s Statistically Speaking Stat: 52.8 score/venue-adjusted Corsi For% - For the first time in the Analytics Era, the Oilers are getting the better of the shot differentials at even strength, currently ranking seventh. That’s the base around which this team can finally turn the corner toward sustainable success. (year-by-year back to 2007-2008: 48.1%, 47.1%, 43.1%, 44.3%, 47.0%, 45.1%, 43.9%, 47.2%, 46.1%) Winnipeg Jets - 45 per cent Preseason prediction - 45 per cent Current point percentage: .462 Point Percentage needed to make Playoffs: .607 Will they make it? Good question. The Jets are up and down, looking great for a stretch of periods and ugly for others. They’ve weathered a serious injury bug, losing seven veterans from the lineup at various times, but at 11-13-2 they may have fallen too far out of the hunt. They can score, but their defensive play has been lacking and goaltending has been an issue on a lot of nights. They’re young and inconsistent. Scheifele, Laine a potent dynamic duo They've become one of the most potent threats in the NHL. Craig Button explains why Mark Scheifele and Patrik Laine compliment each other so well. What they need: Like the Oilers, time will be this group’s best friend. They have a budding star in Mark Scheifeleand Patrik Laine’s 15 goals puts him in the hunt for the Calder Trophy. They need to be better at the bottom end of the lineup, in particular on defence. A solid and consistent presence in goal would go a long way to covering up the mistakes of youth. Scott Cullen’s Statistically Speaking Stat: 51.7 Corsi For/60 – The Detroit Red Wings are the only team generating fewer shots per minute during 5-on-5 play than the Jets. When healthy, they have the talent to produce much more. Calgary Flames - 45 per cent Preseason prediction - 55 per cent Current Point Percentage: .462 Point Percentage needed to make Playoffs: .607 Will they make it? The Flames are in the same boat as the Jets. They’ve put themselves in a tough spot early and will really to crank it up in order to get back into the playoff picture and stay there. The goaltending has been spotty and coach Glen Gulutzan hasn’t struck the right chord with this group just yet. They’re near the bottom of the NHL in both power play and penalty kill. Johnson solidifying himself as Calgary's No. 1 Chad Johnson made 39 saves to beat the Maple Leafs for his third shutout in his past eight games. TH2N talks about Johnson solidifying himself as the Flames number one goalie. What they need: GM Brad Treliving thought he had addressed his goaltending needs in the off-season but with a combined .901 that hasn’t been the case. There’s a lot of young talent on this team, but one has to wonder if the organization isn’t losing patience. Scott Cullen’s Statistically Speaking Stat: .902 SV% - The Flames overhauled their goaltending in the offseason, bringing in Brian Elliott and Chad Johnson, and yet Calgary has only moved from 30th to 25th in the league in save percentage. They have other shortcomings, but the goaltending is the one with the greatest likelihood of sabotaging their season. Toronto Maple Leafs - 35 per cent Preseason prediction - 30 per cent Current Point Percentage: .522 Point Percentage needed to make Playoffs: .593 Will they make it? No. They can score but don’t defend. Coach Mike Babcock’s challenge (just like Paul Maurice in Winnipeg) to teach a young group of skilled players to keep the puck out of their net while continuing to put in the opposition goal. It takes time. What they need: Certainly they need help on the blueline, and word has it they’re willing to part with some veteran scoring to try and make improvements in those areas. The verdict is out on Frederik Andersen, but he gets peppered a lot of nights. Until team defence improves it will be hard to tell if he’s the answer. The Leafs are just figuring out what they have in a number of their young players and major adjustments aren’t expected. Is it time for a new backup plan in Toronto? TSN Hockey analyst Ray Ferraro was a guest on OverDrive Thursday to discuss the early season struggles of Jhonas Enroth and whether or not his time in Toronto might be nearing an end. Scott Cullen’s Statistically Speaking Stat: 60.7 Corsi Against/60 – Only the Arizona Coyotes and New York Islanders allow more shots per minute at 5-on-5 than the Maple Leafs. They’re a fun, high-scoring team, but if they are going to be a playoff team, they have to tighten up defensively. Vancouver Canucks - 20 per cent Preseason prediction - 25 per cent Current Point Percentage: .458 Point Percentage needed to make Playoffs: .603 Will they make it? No. They’re too far behind at this point. They struggle to score and to defend. Injuries have hurt an already flawed roster. The hardest thing to define with the Canucks is what kind of team they are and what are they trying to accomplish at this point as an organization. Ferraro: Canucks need to play their youth now Ray Ferraro joins the midday show & says the Canucks need to accept the growing pains of playing their youth now for a better long-term payoff. Ferraro also weighs in on recent trade rumors surrounding the Flames' Dougie Hamilton & whether he'd be a good fit in Toronto. What they need: A plan and the discipline to stick with it. They need a re-think from the top down. Head coach Willy Desjardins will likely be the fall guy in Vancouver but one can’t argue he’s had the players needed to succeed. This isn’t his mess, but he’s been asked to clean it up without a mop, broom, dust pan or vacuum. You get the point. Scott Cullen’s Statistically Speaking Stat: 96.7 PDO – The Canucks have the lowest combined shooting percentage and save percentage during 5-on-5 play, with the shooting percentage (6.0 per cent) playing a bigger part. Even if they remain worst, the percentages are likely to get better as the season progresses, so the Canucks may be a little better than their not-so-impressive start. It doesn’t mean they are a playoff team, but more like they aren’t favourites for the top lottery pick. Just continues to show and prove what a joke these guys are. Do they ever even watch the Canucks play or are they in bed before the game even starts? A pre season prediction of 25% I totally get and understand. But after the additions of Tryamkin and Stetcher and the way Bo is playing and Louie and Sven have come on lately, this team is actually way better then I thought they would be and I've been very impressed in the past two weeks. If anything we ought to be up 5-10% around 35% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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