Bur14Kes17 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 GaryComing off a season where every Canadian franchise failed to make the Stanley Cup playoffs, we’re ready to play prognosticator in this space, predicting (by percentage) the chances each of the seven clubs has at finding their way back into the postseason to chase a championship next spring. Montreal Canadiens - 95 per cent Preseason prediction - 75 per cent Current Point Percentage: .739 Point Percentage needed to make Playoffs: .508 Will they make it? Absolutely. Well almost. It’s hard to throw around certainties in early December, but the Habs are close to a lock. Montreal is 16-5-2 for 34 points and first in the Atlantic Division. They have a plus 19 goal differential, and with 67 goals for, have proven to be much more than just Carey Price. Price is still their MVP and key to their success. Without him the Habs are a much more ordinary team, as backup Al Montoya’s record of 3-3-0 would suggest. Still, the emergence of Alex Galchenyuk and the impact of newcomers Shea Weber and Alexander Radulov are storylines that can’t be ignored. Lemay: Everyone has to produce for the Habs to break scoring slump RDS analyst Martin Lemay joined McKenna, Starr and special co-host Arpon Basu from LNH.com to preview the Habs versus the Sharks. What they need: GM Marc Bergevin needs to add a top-four defenceman and a second-line centre. Driving possession from the back end has been a missing component as a result of P.K. Subban's departure. Nathan Beaulieu, who started the season as Weber's partner, has fallen down the depth chart. Centre Tomas Plekanec isn’t getting it done, and his line with Brendan Gallagher and Max Paciorettyhas struggled as a result. Scott Cullen’s Statistically Speaking Stat: .947 SV% – A healthy Price is about all the Habs need. They are a solid enough team otherwise, but the best save percentage in the league is the foundation for their success. Ottawa Senators - 75 per cent Preseason prediction - 55 per cent Current Point Percentage: .625 Point Percentage needed to make Playoffs: .554 Will they make it? It sure looks like it. At 14-8-2 they have 30 points and are a top-five team in the East. They’ve become a stingy defensive squad, and that’s the foundation for success. With 59 goals against they’re in the top half of the NHL and they’ve been getting brilliant goaltending from Craig Anderson. Coach Guy Boucher has made the Senators a tough team to play against. The resurgence of Dion Phaneuf and Cody Ceci as a second pairing has gone a long way to make the Senators a better matchup team. Garrioch: Sens in the market for a forward Steve and Todd are joined by Postmedia's Bruce Garrioch to talk about the Sens 3-2 OT loss last night, they chat about the possible outdoor game at TD Place and look ahead to tomorrow's game against the Panthers. What they need: More Scoring. The loss of winger Clarke MacArthurput a hole in Ottawa’s top six which they haven’t been able to fill. Can GM Pierre Dorion find a way to add punch to a lineup that knows how to defend? That’s a huge storyline for the Senators moving forward. Scott Cullen’s Statistically Speaking Stat: 2.21 Goals/60 – The Buffalo Sabres and Vancouver Canucks are the only teams scoring at a worse overall rate than the Senators. They’ve received great goaltending from Anderson, which has led to a solid record, but without more goals, trouble is on the horizon. Edmonton Oilers - 65 per cent Preseason prediction - 40 per cent Current Point Percentage: .560 Point Percentage needed to make Playoffs: .561 Will they make it? The West isn’t as powerful this season and the Oilers have spent a lot of time near the top of the Pacific. Edmonton is 13-10-2 for 28 points. They’re a streaky bunch, and a lot of nights they can outscore their defensive lapses. Head coach Todd MacLellan has done a nice job converting this team from an easy opponent into a threat. Connor McDavid is among the best players in the league and he’s getting help from a lot of different spots in the lineup. The Oilers have pop. Oilers flex offensive muscles in win over Jets Sara Orlesky and Gary Lawless take a closer look at the Oilers' offensive outburst against the Jets, break down Patrik Laine's two-goal effort and discuss Winnipeg's overall play as of late. What they need: Above all, time. In a year or two this roster is going to be a heavyweight in the NHL. They need a right-shot defenceman who can work on the power play. Goalie Cam Talbot is among the busiest in the NHL right now. He could use some help. Scott Cullen’s Statistically Speaking Stat: 52.8 score/venue-adjusted Corsi For% - For the first time in the Analytics Era, the Oilers are getting the better of the shot differentials at even strength, currently ranking seventh. That’s the base around which this team can finally turn the corner toward sustainable success. (year-by-year back to 2007-2008: 48.1%, 47.1%, 43.1%, 44.3%, 47.0%, 45.1%, 43.9%, 47.2%, 46.1%) Winnipeg Jets - 45 per cent Preseason prediction - 45 per cent Current point percentage: .462 Point Percentage needed to make Playoffs: .607 Will they make it? Good question. The Jets are up and down, looking great for a stretch of periods and ugly for others. They’ve weathered a serious injury bug, losing seven veterans from the lineup at various times, but at 11-13-2 they may have fallen too far out of the hunt. They can score, but their defensive play has been lacking and goaltending has been an issue on a lot of nights. They’re young and inconsistent. Scheifele, Laine a potent dynamic duo They've become one of the most potent threats in the NHL. Craig Button explains why Mark Scheifele and Patrik Laine compliment each other so well. What they need: Like the Oilers, time will be this group’s best friend. They have a budding star in Mark Scheifeleand Patrik Laine’s 15 goals puts him in the hunt for the Calder Trophy. They need to be better at the bottom end of the lineup, in particular on defence. A solid and consistent presence in goal would go a long way to covering up the mistakes of youth. Scott Cullen’s Statistically Speaking Stat: 51.7 Corsi For/60 – The Detroit Red Wings are the only team generating fewer shots per minute during 5-on-5 play than the Jets. When healthy, they have the talent to produce much more. Calgary Flames - 45 per cent Preseason prediction - 55 per cent Current Point Percentage: .462 Point Percentage needed to make Playoffs: .607 Will they make it? The Flames are in the same boat as the Jets. They’ve put themselves in a tough spot early and will really to crank it up in order to get back into the playoff picture and stay there. The goaltending has been spotty and coach Glen Gulutzan hasn’t struck the right chord with this group just yet. They’re near the bottom of the NHL in both power play and penalty kill. Johnson solidifying himself as Calgary's No. 1 Chad Johnson made 39 saves to beat the Maple Leafs for his third shutout in his past eight games. TH2N talks about Johnson solidifying himself as the Flames number one goalie. What they need: GM Brad Treliving thought he had addressed his goaltending needs in the off-season but with a combined .901 that hasn’t been the case. There’s a lot of young talent on this team, but one has to wonder if the organization isn’t losing patience. Scott Cullen’s Statistically Speaking Stat: .902 SV% - The Flames overhauled their goaltending in the offseason, bringing in Brian Elliott and Chad Johnson, and yet Calgary has only moved from 30th to 25th in the league in save percentage. They have other shortcomings, but the goaltending is the one with the greatest likelihood of sabotaging their season. Toronto Maple Leafs - 35 per cent Preseason prediction - 30 per cent Current Point Percentage: .522 Point Percentage needed to make Playoffs: .593 Will they make it? No. They can score but don’t defend. Coach Mike Babcock’s challenge (just like Paul Maurice in Winnipeg) to teach a young group of skilled players to keep the puck out of their net while continuing to put in the opposition goal. It takes time. What they need: Certainly they need help on the blueline, and word has it they’re willing to part with some veteran scoring to try and make improvements in those areas. The verdict is out on Frederik Andersen, but he gets peppered a lot of nights. Until team defence improves it will be hard to tell if he’s the answer. The Leafs are just figuring out what they have in a number of their young players and major adjustments aren’t expected. Is it time for a new backup plan in Toronto? TSN Hockey analyst Ray Ferraro was a guest on OverDrive Thursday to discuss the early season struggles of Jhonas Enroth and whether or not his time in Toronto might be nearing an end. Scott Cullen’s Statistically Speaking Stat: 60.7 Corsi Against/60 – Only the Arizona Coyotes and New York Islanders allow more shots per minute at 5-on-5 than the Maple Leafs. They’re a fun, high-scoring team, but if they are going to be a playoff team, they have to tighten up defensively. Vancouver Canucks - 20 per cent Preseason prediction - 25 per cent Current Point Percentage: .458 Point Percentage needed to make Playoffs: .603 Will they make it? No. They’re too far behind at this point. They struggle to score and to defend. Injuries have hurt an already flawed roster. The hardest thing to define with the Canucks is what kind of team they are and what are they trying to accomplish at this point as an organization. Ferraro: Canucks need to play their youth now Ray Ferraro joins the midday show & says the Canucks need to accept the growing pains of playing their youth now for a better long-term payoff. Ferraro also weighs in on recent trade rumors surrounding the Flames' Dougie Hamilton & whether he'd be a good fit in Toronto. What they need: A plan and the discipline to stick with it. They need a re-think from the top down. Head coach Willy Desjardins will likely be the fall guy in Vancouver but one can’t argue he’s had the players needed to succeed. This isn’t his mess, but he’s been asked to clean it up without a mop, broom, dust pan or vacuum. You get the point. Scott Cullen’s Statistically Speaking Stat: 96.7 PDO – The Canucks have the lowest combined shooting percentage and save percentage during 5-on-5 play, with the shooting percentage (6.0 per cent) playing a bigger part. Even if they remain worst, the percentages are likely to get better as the season progresses, so the Canucks may be a little better than their not-so-impressive start. It doesn’t mean they are a playoff team, but more like they aren’t favourites for the top lottery pick. Just continues to show and prove what a joke these guys are. Do they ever even watch the Canucks play or are they in bed before the game even starts? A pre season prediction of 25% I totally get and understand. But after the additions of Tryamkin and Stetcher and the way Bo is playing and Louie and Sven have come on lately, this team is actually way better then I thought they would be and I've been very impressed in the past two weeks. If anything we ought to be up 5-10% around 35% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiDeN Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Canucks are at .458 winning percentage, which makes the "way to far behind" to make the play offs, yet the Flames are .462 and have a 45% chance of making the playoffs? These guys are idiots. We have had some serious injuries at the top of our line up, and when those guys are healthy, then we have a good shot at winning each and every game. Sedin Sedin Hansen Rodin Horvat Eriksson Granlund Sutter Baertchi Burrows Gaunce Dorsett Edler Tanev Hutton Gudbranson Tryamkin Stetcher Markstrom Miller That line up is quite respectable, and even if a couple guys are injured we have some depth at each position. That line-up is more formidable than a lot of line-ups around the league. Just think of how much different the Anaheim game would have been if that is what we were playing with. I see no reason to think they can't make the playoffs. No one is running away with the division. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xbox Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Stop reading TSN! They are a joke. Lets just all be thankful they're next to irrelevant now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 The TSN 'braintrust' in action. Write it in stone. Cullen's "analytics" on Sutter and Gudbranson. "The reasonable expectation is that Sutter is a third-line centre." "see him (Gudbranson) for what he actually is, an NHL defenceman, but maybe not one worth giving up a prospect and picks to acquire." "Straight-up, the Panthers would be happy with a McCann-for-Gudbranson swap" "results were okay (52.1 SAT%) this season when partnered with Brian Campbell, but not so effective (45.3 SAT% or worse) with his next three most-common partners, which might lead one to believe that Campbell was the one driving the possession train on the Florida blueline." Duh - his corsi was better when playing with Campbell in a complementary role to a pmd than they were in an exclusively shutdown role playing with Willie Mitchell et al. There's no denying - this Cullen guy is a genius. Florida should have added him to the payroll - he's got the analyticz. Remarkable how utterly simple these guys are - but not surprising that it's good enough to meet TSN standards. Can we have a hero chart and some words from Yost as well? Worst pdo in the league - bound to regress to the mean - but hey, when you're 3 pts out of a wildcard spot and bound to improve, the analyticz tell you that their chances have decreased. The logic. Projected them as a lottery team and don't have the integrity to own their stupidity. Even with their top pairing and three forwards out the team is better than these shizzgoggles trolls projected. Sign these geniuses up. We need moar analyiczzz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipBlunt Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Just now, Xbox said: Stop reading TSN! They are a joke. And end thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Anyone claiming that TSN is a joke obviously didn't read their Canucks need to suck it up Leafs are better article today. it was actually so far beyond bad it made Ezra Levant look credible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bur14Kes17 Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 The Winnipeg Jets also have a 45% chance of playoffs with a .003 higher win percentage then us. Apparently .003 increases your playoff chances by 25%. When we have a healthy line up tho, I'd still like to see Burrows stick with Bo and Baertschi and Stetcher and Edlet together Sedins Hansen Rodin Sutter Erickson Baertschi Horvat Burrows Grandlund Gaunce Dorsett Edler Stetcher Hutton Tanev Tyramkin Gudbranson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apollo Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 9 minutes ago, Xbox said: Stop reading TSN! They are a joke. Lets just all be thankful they're next to irrelevant now. Agreed. But Sportsnet is just as much of a joke and they are extremely relevant. It's sad times to be anything but a Toronto fan sports media wise. Really miss the regional coverage... Don Taylor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumerman77 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Bur14Kes17 said: TheWinnipeg Jets also have a 45% chance of playoffs with a .003 higher win percentage then us. Apparently .003 wincrease your playoff chances by 25%. When we have a healthy line up tho, I'd still like to see Burrows stick with Bo and Baertschi and Stetcher and Edlet together Sedins Hansen Rodin Sutter Erickson Baertschi Horvat Burrows Grandlund Gaunce Dorsett Edler Stetcher Hutton Tanev Tyramkin Gudbranson Yes, but there are better ways to predict future wins than using past wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
khay Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Another one of Cullen's article had Sedin-Sedin-Eriksson as one of the best lines in the NHL in terms of corsi for whereas Sedin-Sedin-Sutter as one of the worst (link: http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-the-best-nhl-lines-1.621279). And a quote: Quote - Brandon Sutter playing with the Sedins has not provided remotely positive results in Vancouver. Anybody watching the Canucks will say the otherwise. They have generated many scoring chances together and the Sedins looked much better with Sutter than with Eriksson. And that is what the coaching staff thinks as well, otherwise they would have been broken up already. This goes to show that evaluating hockey solely on analytics is not a good idea. Analytics is a useful tool that can help you to find something that is missed by the eye but it cannot replace what you see with your eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipBlunt Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 12 minutes ago, oldnews said: The TSN 'braintrust' in action. Write it in stone. Cullen's "analytics" on Sutter and Gudbranson. "The reasonable expectation is that Sutter is a third-line centre." "see him (Gudbranson) for what he actually is, an NHL defenceman, but maybe not one worth giving up a prospect and picks to acquire." "Straight-up, the Panthers would be happy with a McCann-for-Gudbranson swap" "results were okay (52.1 SAT%) this season when partnered with Brian Campbell, but not so effective (45.3 SAT% or worse) with his next three most-common partners, which might lead one to believe that Campbell was the one driving the possession train on the Florida blueline." Duh - his corsi was better when playing with Campbell in a complementary role to a pmd than they were in an exclusively shutdown role playing with Willie Mitchell et al. There's no denying - this Cullen guy is a genius. Florida should have added him to the payroll - he's got the analyticz. Worst pdo in the league - bound to regress to the mean - but hey, when you're 3 pts out of a wildcard spot and bound to improve, the analyticz tell you that their chances have decreased. Projected them as a lottery team and don't have the integrity to own their stupidity. Even with their top pairing and three forwards out the team is better than these shizzgoggles trolls projected. Sign these geniuses up. We need moar analyiczzz. These geeks are sucking the life out of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsbergTheGreat Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Did they not take the division into consideration? I mean if your going to make a playoff prediction there is far more to it than Shooting and Save % or even winning % when the difference is less than .1% you're expectations are going to be incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipBlunt Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Just now, khay said: Another one of Cullen's article had Sedin-Sedin-Eriksson as one of the best lines in the NHL in terms of corsi for whereas Sedin-Sedin-Sutter as one of the worst (link: http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-the-best-nhl-lines-1.621279). And a quote: Anybody watching the Canucks will say the otherwise. They have generated many scoring chances together and the Sedins looked much better with Sutter than with Eriksson. And that is what the coaching staff thinks as well, otherwise they would have been broken up already. This goes to show that evaluating hockey solely on analytics is not a good idea. Analytics is a useful tool that can help you to find something that is missed by the eye but it cannot replace what you see with your eyes. Exactly. One of many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipBlunt Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said: Did they not take the division into consideration? I mean if your going to make a playoff prediction there is far more to it than Shooting and Save % or even winning % when the difference is less than .1% you're expectations are going to be incorrect. No time for divisional considerations when predicting Corsi/Fenwick trajectories based on quantum mathematical projectories! Floyvin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, khay said: Another one of Cullen's article had Sedin-Sedin-Eriksson as one of the best lines in the NHL in terms of corsi for whereas Sedin-Sedin-Sutter as one of the worst (link: http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-the-best-nhl-lines-1.621279). And a quote: Anybody watching the Canucks will say the otherwise. They have generated many scoring chances together and the Sedins looked much better with Sutter than with Eriksson. And that is what the coaching staff thinks as well, otherwise they would have been broken up already. This goes to show that evaluating hockey solely on analytics is not a good idea. Analytics is a useful tool that can help you to find something that is missed by the eye but it cannot replace what you see with your eyes. "Analytics" are only as good as the analyst. Cullen is an amateur at best, and probably more accurately, a troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xbox Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 7 minutes ago, apollo said: Agreed. But Sportsnet is just as much of a joke and they are extremely relevant. It's sad times to be anything but a Toronto fan sports media wise. Really miss the regional coverage... Don Taylor You'd think so, but honestly it's really not. I like both the Maple Leafs and Canucks, I always have and always will. For me, nothing beats a Saturday night of watching the Leafs at 7 then the Canucks at 10. I have apparel and collectables from both teams. I also love the Toronto Blue Jays. That said, being a Toronto fan does not make TSN any better. If anything it makes them even more annoying because of all their bulls**t articles they make on your team. All I heard in June was Stamkos this, Stamkos that. Like get a clue TSN jeez. I strongly believe TSN plays a massive roll in the hatred of the Maple Leafs. Even with baseball they post articles about one of our best players re-signing and signing elsewhere every day directly contradicting themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chon derry Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 the only thing left ,worth watching or listening to on tsn is their W.JR coverage with g.miller and b,mac nothing else NOTHING about tsn matters anymore ! unless your into curling, darts or ping pong . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apollo Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 7 minutes ago, Xbox said: You'd think so, but honestly it's really not. I like both the Maple Leafs and Canucks, I always have and always will. For me, nothing beats a Saturday night of watching the Leafs at 7 then the Canucks at 10. I have apparel and collectables from both teams. I also love the Toronto Blue Jays. That said, being a Toronto fan does not make TSN any better. If anything it makes them even more annoying because of all their bulls**t articles they make on your team. All I heard in June was Stamkos this, Stamkos that. Like get a clue TSN jeez. I strongly believe TSN plays a massive roll in the hatred of the Maple Leafs. Even with baseball they post articles about one of our best players re-signing and signing elsewhere every day directly contradicting themselves. Honestly this is my problem... When sportsnet was regional, you turn on the news and you get canucks coverage first... now I have to sit through Raptos, Jays, Leafs, etc etc... The worst is home town hockey on sundays... they don't even talk about the canucks game going on during the intermissions. Also regular nights, there's barely any post game or pregame coverage. I just really miss actually having sportsnet pacific be controlled locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 1 hour ago, PhillipBlunt said: These geeks are sucking the life out of the game. They're not even geeks wadr to them. Geeks value intellect at the base. Geeks would dig deeper, geeks wouldn't let their egos and predilections slant underlying simpleton perspectives. This is thinly veiled bias dressed up in 'analytic' terms that would fool only people that can't be bothered to take a cursory look. These guys aren't geeks = they're more akin to political 'analysts' with simpleton, party politics perspectives. They should lose the 'analytical' pretenses - they can't live up to them. Geeks would be embarrassed of this crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipBlunt Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Just now, oldnews said: They're not even geeks wadr to them. Geeks have intellect at the base. Geeks would dig deeper, geeks wouldn't let their egos and predilections slant their perspective. This is thinly veiled bias dressed up in 'analytic' terms that would fool only people that can't be bothered take a cursory look. These guys aren't geeks = they're more akin to political 'analysts' with simpleton, party politics perspectives. They should lose the 'analytical' pretenses - they can't live up to them. Good point. Hacks. Lecherous, wankerous hacks with bad hair, and even worse faces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.