JamesB Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Today (Wednesday) was a pretty bad day for Canuck fans: 1. We are coming off what has to be the worst loss of the season, blowing a 3 goal lead going into the third period, ultimately surrender 6 goals in the third period. 2. Boeser won't play in the World Juniors due to surgery on his wrist. 3. Brisebois was cut from Canada's world junior team. 4. Canada will have only one player on a strong team (Juolevi) at the WJC and one more player in the tournament (Jasek). For a team coming off a couple of disappointing seasons, the Canada's presence at this year's WJC is weak 5. Utica lost again tonight (but in OT and Rodin got a point). And Utica, like the Canucks, is a long way from legitimate playoff contention. Bottom line: The Canucks are sitting in 28th place, the AHL farm team is not doing well, and the amateur pipeline is not looking good either. Right now the season is looking like a train wreck. And maybe we finally win a lottery pick this year -- the weakest draft year in a long time. One way of looking at the problem is in terms of performance per dollar. With a cap in place, a team that pays its players "market value" or the "going rate" for a given performance level will be an average team. That is just arithmetic. In order to win a team has to get a lot from players on a per dollar basis. Winning requires getting high performance per dollar. That means that players need to be paid less than average per point scored. When the Canucks made it to the SCF in 2011, they got great value from a lot of players: Ehrhoff, Edler, Hammer, Salo, were very good value, and even Bieksa was decent value. The Sedins were well paid at 6 million each, but that was a bargain given their performance. Lu was good value for his cap hit (although the length of his contract was a problem) and Schneider was great value. Right now the Canucks are a bad team that is spending close to the cap. That means that some players getting overpaid in cap terms relative to their performance. Nothing too surprising here, but here are the biggest problems. 1. Sedins. In 2011 Daniel had 104 pts in 82 games (1.27 PPG) and won the Art Ross trophy. He was a very impressive +30. The pattern was similar for Henrik. They were not fast or physical but they were great defensively because they spent most of a typical shift in the other team's end, making to tough for the other team to score. And their cap hit w as 6 million each. This year Daniel has 20 pts in 30 games (.67 PPG) and is -6. Still not fast or physical, the Sedins now often get trapped in their own defensive zone for long periods. And their cap hit is higher than it was in 2011. (The cap is also a bit higher but the Sedin's salary has gone up by more than the cap.) The Sedins' productivity per dollar (all things considered -- scoring and defence) is probably less than half of what it was in 2011. 2. Eriksson. has 12 pts in 30 games (0.4 PPG) and is -9. He is slow and soft. He is getting a cap hit of 6 million. This is very poor performance on a per dollar basis. 3. Miller has a cap hit of 6 million. His save percentage is .909, placing him 25th in the NHL. Not good value for money. 4. Gudbranson. He has 6 pts, and he is big and strong and he is supposed be a good skater for a big man. But he has really struggled in a shutdown role with Tanev and Edler out. He has the worst +/- on the D at -14. He was terrible against Carolina and played a big part in the 3rd period collapse. If we had kept Hammer instead of trading for Gudbranson we would probably have won that game. His salary is only 3.5 million, but he allegedly turned down 4.5 to sign long term with Florida. But even at 3.5 his performance to salary ratio is poor. 5. Sutter has 16 pts in 30 games (0.53 PPG). That is not too bad for a cap hit of 4.375 but his plus/minus is a team worst -16. He is contending for the green jacket. He is supposed to be a good skater but he has not looked fast, and he is not a physical player. And his point totals have been helped by very favorable ice time. Overall he has not been good value. 6. Burrows (4.5) and Sbisa (3.6) are getting well paid but they are actually contributing pretty well also. They are are not great value, but they are not bad. GOOD VALUE PLAYERS Naturally, the good values in terms of perfomance per dollar are young guys on entry level and RFA contracts: Horvat, Baertschi, Stecher and other young guys have done well. And the "replacement" type players like Skille, Chaput, Gaunce, and Megna are not paid much and contrbute pretty well on a per dollar basis. Of the veterans, Hansen is of course great value. The basic message is that it is hard to win without a core of good young players who provide good value per dollar. Maybe the Canucks have that young core on the team or in the pipeline but it would take rose-colored glasses to place a high probability of developing a cup contender based on the current group. So I am baffled by Benning's insistence on not trading away players for draft picks at the deadline. I just hope he does not trade AWAY any more draft picks or promising young players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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