The Gudbranson dilemma

[PhillipBlunt]

1 hour ago, Matt_T83 said:

For anyone that missed this article that came out just before Christmas, JD Burke posted a nice analysis of the Gudbranson situation on the Canucks Army website.
Link: http://canucksarmy.com/2016/12/22/should-the-canucks-extend-erik-gudbranson-s-contract

 

He points out that Gudbranson rejected a 4-year, 16M deal the Panther's offered him just before being traded to the Canucks. He suggests that Gudbranson will be demanding 5M+ per year, on a long term deal. However, JD's analytics also suggest that Gudbranson is underperforming for the 3.5-5M/year range.

 

Given how stubborn Benning is, and the price he paid to acquire Gudbranson, I am genuinely worried that we will shell out 4.5-5M per year, for 5-6 years, to extend Guddy. If the analytics are right, we could be stuck with a 5M/year 3rd pairing defenseman for years to come. Now, some people may say we are rebuilding and it doesn't matter, but rebuilding teams NEED cap space. Why? One of the best things you can do as a rebuilding team is have cap space to take bad contracts. You can negotiate deals with contending teams to trade a decent player (say Hansen) in exchange for prospects/picks, and take a bad contract in return. Taking that bad contract can garner an extra late round pick or a better prospect. But if you have no cap space, you can't do that.

 

The dilemma: Do we re-sign him and just give him what he wants? Or do we take him to arbitration? At arbitration we could get him at 3.5M/year, but probably only for 2-3 years. If we put him in that spot, he will certainly hate us and leave the team ASAP. 

1. Erik Gudbranson was traded abruptly to a new team in a different conference. Players, on average, can take up to half a season to properly acclimate themselves to their new surroundings. Having to unlearn a system, coaching style, division/conference playing styles and tendencies, and then learn a whole new and different system, coaching style, and conference/divisional styles and tendencies takes time.
2. He was probably playing with a broken finger and a fractured (?) wrist for some time before it was determined that surgery was required.
3. He was given a sophomore partner to mentor, even though he's only 6 months older than Hutton.
4. JD Burke is an absolute tool. His crapass Canucks Army blogs are rife with negativity dressed up as realism, and he tries to pass off his tired and biased opinion as ironclad fact.

But this fan base always needs a whipping boy, and due to Sbisa's strong play, and even with the overall strength of a burgeoning young defensive corps evident, someone has to be put in the gallows. Gudbranson's the guy right now.

 

Maybe it's the analytics crowd who feel underappreciated by the league and it's refusal to let the geeks take over that has them firing off their PDO's and Fenwick cannons in some futile hope of turning that tide.

 

Personally, I'd like to see what Gudbranson can provide with a healed hand and some more time to get used to his new surroundings before calling him a bust.

[NewbieCanuckFan]

6 minutes ago, stawns said:

 

any time he wasn't paired with Hutton, his game went way up.

I cut Hutton a little more slack (even though is play has been often awful this season) since he's a sophmore  (developing prospects will have their ups & downs).

[luckylager]

I don't see a huge problem. If the price seems too high, take him to arbitration.

 

If he doesn't like the outcome, he doesn't have the character we want - as in thinking he deserves more than his actual worth as determined by arbitration.

 

Then trade him for a good return prior to his UFA contract if he hasn't been extended prior to TDL.

[Warhippy]

Just now, PhillipBlunt said:

1. Erik Gudbranson was traded abruptly to a new team in a different conference. Players, on average, can take up to half a season to properly acclimate themselves to their new surroundings. Having to unlearn a system, coaching style, division/conference playing styles and tendencies, and then learn a whole new and different system, coaching style, and conference/divisional styles and tendencies takes time.
2. He was probably playing with a broken finger and a fractured (?) wrist for some time before it was determined that surgery was required.
3. He was given a sophomore partner to mentor, even though he's only 6 months older than Hutton.
4. JD Burke is an absolute tool. His crapass Canucks Army blogs are rife with negativity dressed up as realism, and he tries to pass off his tired and biased opinion as ironclad fact.

But this fan base always needs a whipping boy, and due to Sbisa's strong play, and even with the overall strength of a burgeoning young defensive corps evident, someone has to be put in the gallows. Gudbranson's the guy right now.

 

Maybe it's the analytics crowd who feel underappreciated by the league and it's refusal to let the geeks take over that has them firing off their PDO's and Fenwick cannons in some futile hope of turning that tide.

 

Personally, I'd like to see what Gudbranson can provide with a healed hand and some more time to get used to his new surroundings before calling him a bust.

But that's common sense?  What would we panic about....

[WhoseTruckWasIt]

49 minutes ago, Matt_T83 said:

 

That's why I'm worried... Benning is so stubborn and seemingly idiotic at times. He gave Sbisa and Dorsett raises on faith. Granted, Sbisa has actually improved his play against all odds, but chances are that won't happen with Gudbranson. Benning could very well give him 5M per year, maybe 4.5, for like 5-6 years. 

 

I think we should take Gudbranson to arbitration and force out 3-4 years at 3.5M/year. He may hate us, but it's a more cautious approach.

You should be drawing the other conclusion.  You were wrong about Sbisa, and you're likely wrong about Gudbranson.  The idea that he will get less than 4 mill is downright laughable.  4.5 x 6 would be a huge win for us.

[WHL rocks]

4 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

He's an RFA for 1 more year.  His play does not warrant $4 million.  And if it does this forum is about to panic over a .5 to a 1.5 million salary increase when we've almost $20 million coming off the books in the next 17 months.

 

It's REALLY not that important a subject when you look at the cap space vs the possible increase OP is claiming.

I don't think there is any way possible he signs for under 4 mill. That is not going to happen. If he wanted to do that he would have done so in FLD and lived in a city with no state tax and beautiful weather. He's going to want close to 5 mill. JB will have to pay 4.5 mill to sign him. 

 

This is the dilemma, is EG a legit top 4 Dman and is he going to be worth 4.5 mill per year on a long term deal? If not, decisions need to be made. And this is going to be a huge issue for this franchise from now until he signs an extension or is traded. 

 

If you want to build a contender you need to be underpaying guys by .5 to 1.5 mill, not overpay. Sutter is overpaid, EG will be too, those amounts add up and cost a solid player on the lineup. 

[ShakyWalton]

7 minutes ago, Alflives said:

I know it's a Guddy thread, but we need the money to sign him.  That's why Miller NOT being resigned is important to Guddy.  There are other guys like Burr coming off the books too, who could be replaced by younger (cheaper) players.  

When do we need to have Guddy resigned before it's a qualifying offer only?  July?

not sure ..but I think so  after the draft.

[Angry Goose]

47 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

Everyone cried about Sbisa getting 3.6 and he's turned out to be worth that value.

 

I wouldn't worry about the contract Guddy gets, he's worth it.  Analytic's don't tell the whole story and should be taken with a grain of salt not something that should be the basis of reasoning.

 

 

 

the  real Q is whether you were one of the ones constantly ridiculing Sbsia 

[Warhippy]

Just now, WhoseTruckWasIt said:

You should be drawing the other conclusion.  You were wrong about Sbisa, and you're likely wrong about Gudbranson.  The idea that he will get less than 4 mill is downright laughable.  4.5 x 6 would be a huge win for us.

But....dammit you and Phillip are using common sense!  Don't do that here.

 

@oldnews see what's happened now?  They're using this number crunching nonsense to light fires to stay warm

 

anarchy I tell you

 

ANARCHY!   

[Warhippy]

Just now, WHL rocks said:

I don't think there is any way possible he signs for under 4 mill. That is not going to happen. If he wanted to do that he would have done so in FLD and lived in a city with no state tax and beautiful weather. He's going to want close to 5 mill. JB will have to pay 4.5 mill to sign him. 

 

This is the dilemma, is EG a legit top 4 Dman and is he going to be worth 4.5 mill per year on a long term deal? If not, decisions need to be made. And this is going to be a huge issue for this franchise from now until he signs an extension or is traded. 

Then he gets a 1 to a 1.5 million increase.

 

Why are people worried

[PhillipBlunt]

1 minute ago, Warhippy said:

But that's common sense?  What would we panic about....

[Tearloch7]

Gudbranson is going nowhere .. great perspective Hippy.

[Warhippy]

1 minute ago, PhillipBlunt said:

I love everything about this.  Can we petition to have this the official panic post for the forum?

[PhillipBlunt]

Just now, Warhippy said:

I love everything about this.  Can we petition to have this the official panic post for the forum?

I second that emotion.

[Alflives]

Just now, Tearloch7 said:

Gudbranson is going nowhere .. great perspective Hippy.

So which of those four dmen is going?  Sbisa? Tanev? Edler? Gudbranson?  One of them will either get traded, or be exposed, and likely selected by Vegas.  

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

25 minutes ago, appleboy said:

If Sbisa keeps playing like he is and maybe even improves as he gets older and more stable, he will get 5mil as a UFA.

Sbisa is such an interesting comparison for this Gudbranson discussion. He's two years older than Guddy. And two years ago, he's played roughly the same number of games as Gudbranson has to-date. At the time, analytics bloggers said Sbisa's underlying numbers defined him as a fringe NHLer. And they said that based on the number of games he'd already played, his ceiling was already locked in. 300+ NHL games. What you see is what you get. Or so they said.

 

Benning had a different view. He saw Sbisa as a player with a strong set of tools who could develop into a solid top-4 D and who came with a wealth of "intangibles" that can not be measured by analytics.

 

Today, we see Sbisa posting his second consecutive season with some of the best on-ice goals metrics in the league among NHL defensemen. The analytics bloggers have had to scramble to revise their positions on this player.

 

Who's to say we won't see a similar trajectory from Guddy? Benning's eye test appears to have won out over the numbers with Sbisa. And I'd be willing to bet on JB being proven right again with Gudbranson.

 

Regardless of what the hero charts say.

[ForsbergTheGreat]

7 minutes ago, SILLY GOOSE said:

 

the  real Q is whether you were one of the ones constantly ridiculing Sbsia 

Lets find out

 

On 4/9/2015 at 3:24 PM, ForsbergTheGreat said:

What is all the outcry for on these deals. Canucks needed to sign future depth and that’s what they did. Are people forgetting that we have a number of players reaching UFA status over the next 3 years? There’s a real good chance considering all ages of the players, mixed in with a players we have coming up through the system that we trade prior or let the players walk at the end of their term,

 

 

There really should be a cry for cap space.

 

• UFA’s at the end of next year: Vbrata (5.0 cap hit), Juice(4.6 cap hit), Hammer(4.5 cap hit)

14.1 extra cap space

 

• UFA’s at the end of 2017: Burrow (4.5 cap hit), Higgins (2.5 cap hit), Bonino (1.9 cap hit), Miller (6.0 cap hit)

13.9 extra cap space

 

• UFA’s at the end of 2018: D.Sedin(7.0 cap hit), H.Sedin(7.0 cap hit), Hansen (2.5 cap hit)

16.5 extra cap space

 

• That’s 44 million $ locked up in players that have a good chance of not being with this team by the end of year 3.

 

At the end of next year both of Hammer and/or Juice will not be here, either by trade or letting walk as UFA. Sbisa becomes a good replacement for Bieska, 8 years younger, cheaper contract, isn’t afraid to lay the body.

 

Canucks now have 3 of their D locked up long term, Edler, Tanev, Sbisa (all under the age of 29), a couple of bubble D that may break out over the next few years (Clendening, Corrado, Pedan, The Russian, Subban). I wouldn’t be surprised to see canucks go out sign another top 4 D and ship out one of Bieska and Hamhuis this summer.

 

The Dorsett signing was key, Many of our upcoming prospect have top 6 skillsets. Signing a player like Dorsett long term allows the canucks to have solid leadership without eating up a roster spot that the rookies will take. He still brings a needed element to the team no matter what line he is put on. He’s going to be a great role model for a player like Virtanen.

 

Canucks now currently have 18 contracts looked up for next season and 68.26 million tied up in cap. With the cap going up to 71-73, that gives up 3-5 million to fill up the 23 man roster. UFA; Richardson, Matthias RFA; Clendening, Vey, Baertschi, Kenins, Markstrom, Weber, Stanton. Baertschi costing us a second and RFA is forsure going to be playing here next year and that also takes up another LW spot, it kind of shows a trade is upcoming for a current roster LW, no re-signing Matthias? Trading Higgins?.

 

I think it’s safe to say that Benning does have some trades planned to not only open up cap space but also allow roster space.

A couple players that could very well be moved are Higgins, Bieska, (goalie). Moving those two skaters opens up 7.1 million in cap space. If Miller gets moved even more $ is opened up.

 

Overall we've locked down two players that will be useful to this team over the next few years, Nothing really to complain about

[apollo]

Rejected 4 years 16 mill... oh boy. Package him with another asset or two and land a guy like Duchene. 

[Warhippy]

7 minutes ago, Tearloch7 said:

Gudbranson is going nowhere .. great perspective Hippy.

Awful isn't it?  He's like top 4 maybe bottom 6 herpes.  We're stuck with him.  And he might cost an extra million for the pleasure long term.  I mean, I'm looking at a hero chart.  It shows Yannick Weber might actually be better than erik Gudbranson

 

http://public.tableau.com/shared/TPWPPGHF9?:display_count=yes

 

Maybe we should throw Nashville a 2nd as well?  

 

 

 

[WHL rocks]

4 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

Then he gets a 1 to a 1.5 million increase.

 

Why are people worried

I think what some ppl are concerned about is his play and ceiling. Will he be a legit top 4 Dman like most expect after he gets used to the new team and conference? Or will he be a career #5 Dman who can fill in at #4 spot. If he is a 5D then it's going to suck being stuck with that contract. 

 

I'm hopeful he'll pan out. Hutton hasn't had a great sophomore season and EG was paired with him for the most part. I'm not a huge analytics guy I just go by what I see. I think JB will pay him 4.5 mil, I just don't see JB taking him to arb. I probably wouldn't do that either. Not a good example to set on a rebuilding team with a player you just traded for.