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(Official) 2016-2017 Magic Number Thread


cleowin

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Hello, 

 

Welcome back to another year of collecting data and presenting information regarding Vancouver's odds of making the playoffs.

 

New This Season:

Due to last year's dismal interest in my work, I decided to wait it out this season until we figure out where Vancouver places by mid-season. Due to uncertain demand for this information, I have decided to do no visual chart, but rather present information for Vancouver's odds to make the playoffs through a series of stats. I will update this thread at the conclusion of every Canucks game. If demand is sufficient, I will bring back the chart following the Trade Deadline. Conversation and questions are always welcome.

 

Stats to follow with the conclusion of the game versus Arizona.

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 2017-01-26 at 3:00 PM, Shaelon said:

Hello, 

 

Welcome back to another year of collecting data and presenting information regarding Vancouver's odds of making the playoffs.

 

New This Season:

Due to last year's dismal interest in my work, I decided to wait it out this season until we figure out where Vancouver places by mid-season. Due to uncertain demand for this information, I have decided to do no visual chart, but rather present information for Vancouver's odds to make the playoffs through a series of stats. I will update this thread at the conclusion of every Canucks game. If demand is sufficient, I will bring back the chart following the Trade Deadline. Conversation and questions are always welcome.

 

Stats to follow with the conclusion of the game versus Arizona.

I think TSN 1040 said that after our last loss or playoff chance dropped to 2.9%.

 

im curious to see how yours is measured, and if it's different.  Do you send your stats to JB, in hopes he will get moving on the trade front?

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They have a 0% chance.  To get the last wildcard they would need 90 points most likely.

That means they need to get 34 points in the last 24 games.  Which would be the equivalent of getting 116.2 points over 82 games.

In 2011 we got 117 in 2012 111.  If we lose tomorrow, we need to play 121.   

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Just now, kingofsurrey said:

Way too many fans here on CDC vastly over rate our team and our prospects.

 

I guess it is human nature.

 

Having a glass of wine right now wishing JB hits a few home runs  this year at the draft.  We surely need it. 

Sounds like Gaudette was a home run extraordinaire.

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4 minutes ago, kingofsurrey said:

Is he 6th overall in NCAA points ?

 

I think he is first overall in shots taken......  I like that stat...

He's big, fast, skilled, and plays nasty too.  I'm hoping Gaudette, Boeser, and Lockwood all leave school this spring, and come to camp ready to push the vets for spots on the big club this September.  

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2 hours ago, Alflives said:

He's big, fast, skilled, and plays nasty too.  I'm hoping Gaudette, Boeser, and Lockwood all leave school this spring, and come to camp ready to push the vets for spots on the big club this September.  

6'1" 183.  Not big, but not a concern.  Having a hell of a year.  21-24-45 in 29 games.  But don't go Trump on us Alf :bigblush:

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8 hours ago, Alflives said:

I think TSN 1040 said that after our last loss or playoff chance dropped to 2.9%.

 

im curious to see how yours is measured, and if it's different.  Do you send your stats to JB, in hopes he will get moving on the trade front?

Screenshot_20170217-214955.thumb.png.3b8b644d8d631f47f96c8d441fe8bc12.png

Playoff% on far right

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On 1/26/2017 at 3:00 PM, Shaelon said:

Hello, 

 

Welcome back to another year of collecting data and presenting information regarding Vancouver's odds of making the playoffs.

 

New This Season:

Due to last year's dismal interest in my work, I decided to wait it out this season until we figure out where Vancouver places by mid-season. Due to uncertain demand for this information, I have decided to do no visual chart, but rather present information for Vancouver's odds to make the playoffs through a series of stats. I will update this thread at the conclusion of every Canucks game. If demand is sufficient, I will bring back the chart following the Trade Deadline. Conversation and questions are always welcome.

 

Stats to follow with the conclusion of the game versus Arizona.

I for one enjoy seeing your info/chart. Looking forward to it, even in a non-playoff year.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Interest or the actual playoff implications are not really great for me to bring back the chart, so I have an update on how Vancouver is going to make the playoffs.

 

(I am projecting the best case scenario for the Canucks, and I am going to offer as realistic as potential predictable outcomes as possible)

 

VAN:

NYI @ VAN - WIN

PIT @ VAN - OT/LOSS

BOS @ VAN - OT/WIN

DAL @ VAN - WIN

VAN @ EDM - LOSS

VAN @ CHI - OT/LOSS

VAN @ STL - OT/WIN

VAN @ MIN - WIN

VAN @ WPG - WIN

ANA @ VAN - OT/WIN

LAK @ VAN - WIN

SJS @ VAN - OT/LOSS

VAN @ SJS - LOSS

VAN @ ARI - WIN

EDM @ VAN - WIN

VAN @ EDM - OT/LOSS

 

Total: 23 Points, Total: 88 (10-2-4), Final Record: 38-32-12

 

STL:

ANA @ STL - OT/LOSS

NYI @ STL - LOSS

STL @ LAK - WIN

STL @ ANA - OT/LOSS

STL @ SJS - LOSS

STL @ ARI - WIN

STL @ COL - LOSS

STL @ VAN - OT/LOSS

STL @ CGY - LOSS

ARI @ STL - WIN

STL @ ARI - LOSS

STL @ COL - WIN

NSH @ STL - LOSS

WPG @ STL - WIN

STL @ FLA - LOSS

STL @ CAR - LOSS

COL @ STL - WIN

 

Total: 6-8-3 - 20 Points - 86

 

I feel STL will win a few more games that I predicted, but that's the best case scenario for the canucks at this point. STL doesn't need a strong record to eliminate Vancouver, .500 would be more than enough if Vancouver only wins what I outlined above.

 

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