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2016 TDL, Offseason + Expansion (Discussion) LONG READ


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42 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

Guddy currently makes 3.5, he's not going to take a cut because he had an injured season.  Sbisa was signed at 3.6 having proved less at the time of the signing.  Guddy will be commanding a pay raised based on what he's expecting to grow into.  If he's willing to take a 1 year deal them maybe he will accept what he's currently making but not a chance he takes a cut.  Anything over a one year deal 4+.

 

Rackell was signed this year. Prior to signing the contract Rackell's career high was 43 points (he did this as a 22 year old).  Horvat is on pace to be in the 50 point range this year (which he's doing as a 21 year old playing with higher D-zone starts), so he will be way higher than rackell

 

Rackell had a break out season this year but that's after the contract was signed.  Horvat's having a break out season before the contract.

 

Better comparables would be players in his same age range.

 

Monahan 6.375

Barkov 5.9

MacKinnon 6.3

Forsberg 6.0

 

You could throw in a comparable of

Scheifele 6.125. 

 

Prior to signing his contract he had 3 years in the NHL where he put up 34 points, then 49 points and then 61 points.   

Horvat entered the NHL a year younger than Scheifele and has put up 29 points, then 41 points and now is on pace for 52 points.

 

You can make a case that Horvat doesn’t deserve to be in the 6 range but he’s clearly in the 5+ range,

Good points Forsberg! We shall see. Gudbranson probably does sign for 3.5, but in that case i try a 3 year deal. 

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53 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

Guddy currently makes 3.5, he's not going to take a cut because he had an injured season.  Sbisa was signed at 3.6 having proved less at the time of the signing.  Guddy will be commanding a pay raised based on what he's expecting to grow into.  If he's willing to take a 1 year deal them maybe he will accept what he's currently making but not a chance he takes a cut.  Anything over a one year deal 4+.

 

Rackell was signed this year. Prior to signing the contract Rackell's career high was 43 points (he did this as a 22 year old).  Horvat is on pace to be in the 50 point range this year (which he's doing as a 21 year old playing with higher D-zone starts), so he will be way higher than rackell

 

Rackell had a break out season this year but that's after the contract was signed.  Horvat's having a break out season before the contract.

 

Better comparables would be players in his same age range.

 

Monahan 6.375

Barkov 5.9

MacKinnon 6.3

Forsberg 6.0

 

You could throw in a comparable of

Scheifele 6.125. 

 

Prior to signing his contract he had 3 years in the NHL where he put up 34 points, then 49 points and then 61 points.   

Horvat entered the NHL a year younger than Scheifele and has put up 29 points, then 41 points and now is on pace for 52 points.

 

You can make a case that Horvat doesn’t deserve to be in the 6 range but he’s clearly in the 5+ range,

 

Its going to be somewhere in the 40-45/8 year range. He'd certainly get that on an offer sheet from many other teams. 

 

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12 minutes ago, KKnight said:

Good points Forsberg! We shall see. Gudbranson probably does sign for 3.5, but in that case i try a 3 year deal. 

I think he'll land between Sbisa and Tanev, and if he's hoping for more then it might be a long summer. 

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1 hour ago, S'all Good Man said:

 

Its going to be somewhere in the 40-45/8 year range. He'd certainly get that on an offer sheet from many other teams. 

 

40 over 8 would be a fair deal for both sides. But the reason i was leaning towards a 6 year deal was because he would still be an RFA and then we could sign him again before he hits UFA status. Could be wrong just logical to me. 

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Just now, KKnight said:

40 over 8 would be a fair deal for both sides. But the reason i was leaning towards a 6 year deal was because he would still be an RFA and then we could sign him again before he hits UFA status. Could be wrong just logical to me. 

For sure. The recent trends for guys like Bo doing so well coming out of their ELCs is the full 8 but we'll see. Either way is fine by me.

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On 1/30/2017 at 2:41 AM, Whale Tail said:

Gud will want more more than a qualifying offer to extend. 

He's not actually offering Guddy a qualifying offer. He's offering a $1m pay cut. He'd have to be offered his current $3.5m to qualify him and retain his rights. Guddy would have to become an unrestricted free agent to offer him less, unless he actually believes he couldn't get more and accepts the offer. Highly unlikely. Meaning of course he's on the market for anybody to sign without compensation July 1st. I think they could take him to arbitration to reduce his salary but truthfully, no matter how you slice, it I don't see him getting less than he's currently earning.

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18 hours ago, KKnight said:

Good points Forsberg! We shall see. Gudbranson probably does sign for 3.5, but in that case i try a 3 year deal. 

If he signs again at the same $3.5m he won't make it a three year deal. He wouldn't give Florida a multi-year at that salary why would he do it here after one season?

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2 hours ago, Alflives said:

Alf likes Domi, but hasn't he stalled (or even gone backwards) in his development?  Maybe Virtanen will be the better (or more impactful) player?  If Tanev is traded, it's to Toronto for their 1st. and 2 seconds.

How has Domi stalled?  He's on the same point production pace as he was last year even though his line mate Duclair has completely slumped.  He hasn't played since early December since breaking his hand in a fight. 

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14 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

How has Domi stalled?  He's on the same point production pace as he was last year even though his line mate Duclair has completely slumped.  He hasn't played since early December since breaking his hand in a fight. 

His points are stalled, and he's an offensive minded player.  I'm thinking Jake might actually end up being the better player:)  

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24 minutes ago, Alflives said:

His points are stalled, and he's an offensive minded player.  I'm thinking Jake might actually end up being the better player:)  

Virtanen hasn't even shown enough to prove he's NHL-ready yet...and probably needs a trip to rehab too. Asking way too much of Virtanen to be better than Domi, Jake needs to get himself healthy, improve his skating, make smarter plays, improve his vision, and be better defensively before he's even in consideration. Maybe in a couple years he'll be there, but by then Domi will probably have 250-275 points in the NHL. 

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2 hours ago, Alflives said:

His points are stalled, and he's an offensive minded player.  I'm thinking Jake might actually end up being the better player:)  

I fail to see your logic on this one Alf. Who has Domi had to play with? Duclair. If i was Arizona id be worried more about Duclair than Domi. Domi is a different breed Alf. 

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