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Federal Liberals Fall in Poll to 40.5% But Would Have Bigger Majority If Election Held Now


DonLever

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The Federal Liberals have fallen significantly in popular vote in latest poll.  The results are about the same as the 39.5 % they got in the 2015 election.

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-quarterly-polls-feb2017-1.4005495

 

Liberals 40.5%

Conservatives 31.5%

NDP 15.6%

Green 5.4%

Bloc 4.8%

 

However, if an election were held today, the Liberals would actually would have a bigger majority since they will increase their seat total from 184 to 200.  This due to the increase in support in Quebec to 44% from 35% in the last election and weakness of the NDP there.   Any seats lost in Ontario and elsewhere would be made up in Quebec.

 

So, why would the Liberals want electoral reform when they can easily get a majority with 40% of the vote.  Obviously, under a strict  proportional electoral system, neither the Liberals or any other party can get a majority with 40% of the vote.

 

Funny thing is, only the Conservatives under Diefenbaker and Mulroney, ever reach over 50% in popular vote in recent memory in a multi-party system.   The Liberals, in power so many years, never got over 50% popular vote in the multi-party system.

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25 minutes ago, Tom Sestito said:

not really sure that's a fair statement

Well a Canadian government with a majority is one of the most powerful in the world and to only have 40% of Canadians supporting you is troublesome. I understand it's always been that way. Look at 1980 for example, liberals had two seats in Manitoba and zero seats west of Manitoba yet passed legislation for all of Canada without question.

 

The system needs fixing, multiple governments promise to fix it but then they win under the current system and then understand why do we want to hurt ourselves.

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We can complain all we want about our electoral system, but the matter of fact is, changing it will cost us billions $ and it's still ain't going to be perfect, in a few years we would complain about another flaw in that system too.

 

Look at the US, Trump won without the popular vote.   If you look every American election almost end up in a 52/48% more or less split between the republican and democrat. 

 

Therefore whatever system we use, people will always be divided and no system will give you a 70-80-90% support vote in any election. 

 

I say put our money/ressources elsewhere.

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One thing is for sure, Trudeau is smart by maintaining his popularity/relevance by constantly appear on social media feeds and "news".

 

A lot of:

"Trudeau's young adult photos found!"

"Trudeau help some wheel-chair guy down the stairs!"

"Trudeau grabbing Starbucks"

etc.

 

Sometimes I wonder how much is staged.  It's starting to become Hillary Clinton level type of publicity.  

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6 hours ago, DonLever said:

Funny thing is, only the Conservatives under Diefenbaker and Mulroney, ever reach over 50% in popular vote in recent memory in a multi-party system.   The Liberals, in power so many years, never got over 50% popular vote in the multi-party system.

No, the real funny thing is, if they were actually following through on key issues like electoral reform, their approval ratings would likely be a LOT higher.

 

5 hours ago, Ryan Strome said:

Well a Canadian government with a majority is one of the most powerful in the world and to only have 40% of Canadians supporting you is troublesome. I understand it's always been that way. Look at 1980 for example, liberals had two seats in Manitoba and zero seats west of Manitoba yet passed legislation for all of Canada without question.

 

The system needs fixing, multiple governments promise to fix it but then they win under the current system and then understand why do we want to hurt ourselves.

In a multi-party system, no party is realistically going to break that 50% barrier very often.

 

Math.

 

Where the current system fails more so is in the representation of the smaller parties. Not only do they end up with zero representation despite having 'X percent' of the popular vote but because of that lack of representation, the system tends to drive voters away from those parties they might otherwise support.

 

THAT is why we need election reform. Majority parties will continue to be elected by less than half the voting populace regardless but election reform would force them to work more closely with smaller parties ensuring a fairer and more accurate representation of ALL Canadians.

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1 hour ago, J.R. said:

Where the current system fails more so is in the representation of the smaller parties. Not only do they end up with zero representation despite having 'X percent' of the popular vote but because of that lack of representation, the system tends to drive voters away from those parties they might otherwise support.

 

THAT is why we need election reform. Majority parties will continue to be elected by less than half the voting populace regardless but election reform would force them to work more closely with smaller parties ensuring a fairer and more accurate representation of ALL Canadians.

The problem with that is, who gets represented by the MPs that are only in there due to proportional representation?

 

For example (and please correct me if I have this totally wrong)...

 

The Greens are currently at about 5%.  That would mean 15 seats.  Only one riding has ever elected a Green member.  So what other 14 ridings would be forced to be represented by a Green Party MP, even though they never elected one?  What does that mean to the candidates that did win the local vote?  Too bad?

 

On the other hand, I suppose it would eliminate the possibility of MPs crossing the floor, as the seats would be assigned to the party based on the popular vote.

 

It just seems too problematic to me.  Or maybe I just don't understand how it would work. 

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9 minutes ago, goalie13 said:

The problem with that is, who gets represented by the MPs that are only in there due to proportional representation?

 

For example (and please correct me if I have this totally wrong)...

 

The Greens are currently at about 5%.  That would mean 15 seats.  Only one riding has ever elected a Green member.  So what other 14 ridings would be forced to be represented by a Green Party MP, even though they never elected one?  What does that mean to the candidates that did win the local vote?  Too bad?

 

On the other hand, I suppose it would eliminate the possibility of MPs crossing the floor, as the seats would be assigned to the party based on the popular vote.

 

It just seems too problematic to me.  Or maybe I just don't understand how it would work. 

 

And that's where the debate on voting reform needs to be. Not on whether to do it or not. 

 

There are multiple systems FWIW.

 

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/making-sense-of-electoral-reform-what-are-canadas-options/

 

Edit:

(I like ranked ballot myself with proportional being my second choice).

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Lancaster said:

One thing is for sure, Trudeau is smart by maintaining his popularity/relevance by constantly appear on social media feeds and "news".

 

A lot of:

"Trudeau's young adult photos found!"

"Trudeau help some wheel-chair guy down the stairs!"

"Trudeau grabbing Starbucks"

etc.

 

Sometimes I wonder how much is staged.  It's starting to become Hillary Clinton level type of publicity.  

Trudeau will stay as PM so long as he is portrayed as a pretty boy.  I really think this modern media coverage promotes his good looks, and a lot of people might be voting for his party because of it.

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24 minutes ago, J.R. said:

 

And that's where the debate on voting reform needs to be. Not on whether to do it or not. 

 

There are multiple systems FWIW.

 

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/making-sense-of-electoral-reform-what-are-canadas-options/

 

Edit:

(I like ranked ballot myself with proportional being my second choice).

 

 

 

Would you like the idea of top two have a run off?

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15 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Trudeau will stay as PM so long as he is portrayed as a pretty boy.  I really think this modern media coverage promotes his good looks, and a lot of people might be voting for his party because of it.

If he keeps up this defecit I doubt the liberals get re-elected. He will be forced to raise taxes and cut things. This infrastructure money seems to be so slow getting out to areas that need it. Hopefully Bernier wins the conservative leadership.

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22 minutes ago, Ryan Strome said:

If he keeps up this defecit I doubt the liberals get re-elected. He will be forced to raise taxes and cut things. This infrastructure money seems to be so slow getting out to areas that need it. Hopefully Bernier wins the conservative leadership.

Electoral reform is the biggest issue IMO. Their handling and reversal on that is going to hurt them and the opposition will HAMMER them with it next election. 

 

Sent my MP an email on it and got a typical canned response from her assistant to which I responded:

 

Quote
Be careful with the (in my opinion, insincere/dishonest) intellectual "shell game" your party appears to be playing on this subject. 
 
As far as I can see, it will only confuse the less intelligent or less involved voters and insult and alienate the more intelligent and involved ones leaving the Liberals in opposition again next election.

She thanked me for additional input and told me to have a wonderful weekend :lol:

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7 minutes ago, J.R. said:

Electoral reform is the biggest issue IMO. Their handling and reversal on that is going to hurt them and the opposition will HAMMER them with it next election. 

 

Sent my MP an email on it and got a typical canned response from her assistant to which I responded:

 

She thanked me for additional input and told me to have a wonderful weekend :lol:

Just sent an email of my own, told them their decision may cause me to vote NDP next time.

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