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Game against Arizona most important game of the season!?


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1 hour ago, Hutton Wink said:

...and the tankers still won't get it.  "Tank harderrrr!"

The tankers get it better then most. It is just about odds and how far you can slip in the lotto. It is also about the rest of the rounds. The lotto only effects the first round.

If we ended up in 29th then we can't slip past 5th. At third you also have the Vegas effect. Third means you are in forth and can slip  to 7th.

Simple math.

 

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1 hour ago, Hutton Wink said:

...and the tankers still won't get it.  "Tank harderrrr!"

And anti tankers still won't get it.  It's not just about winning the lotto that matters when finishing as low as you can go, but also protecting how far you drop if you drop the max of three spots.  Finishing 2nd lowest and the lowest you can drop is 5th, compared to 7th finishing 4th.  It's a little fact anti tankers have yet to grasp. "More meaningless winssss!"

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3 hours ago, Curt said:

Because of the NHL lottery draw I can't believe how overrated by the fans going down 1 spot in the standings is. It doesn't make a big difference so why hoping the Canucks to lose?

This is the right call. Having a slightly better chance of getting a lottery pick will not matter much. Also, the players at the top of draft are not as good this year as in the two years. There are no blue chip franchise players or even obvious potential first liners in this year's draft. There will of course be some first line forwards from this draft but it is hard to say right now who they will be. Most people think the top two guys stand out, and I guess they do, but not like in the last two years. And any guy taken in the top 7 or 8 probably has a decent shot at turning out as the best player in the draft down the road.

 

So the benefits of losing are pretty small this year. And it is pretty discouraging that the Canucks, as a cap team with a big fan base is, right now, in the same place as the most dysfunctional franchise in the NHL. 

 

Finishing 29th would have been worth it last year or the year before.

 

And I don't have a lot of confidence in Benning's ability to make the right pick with high draft picks.

 

Benning has had 4 first round picks. He took Virtanen over Nylander and Ehlers, he took McCann over Pastrnak, he took Boeser, and he took Juolevi over Tkachuk. One of those picks was good (Boeser). The others were pretty big mistakes in my view. (And we through away a high second round pick last year on the Gudbranson trade.)

 

 

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2 hours ago, vinny_in_vancouver said:

Ah, but Toronto got Matthews...

That's exactly the point -- Toronto beat 5:1 odds.  It's all a crapshoot, and to claim the necessity of getting a 2% better chance when in the meantime you potentially damage or ruin the development of players and the team because of such mentality is horribly simple-minded and short-sighted, not to mention disrespectful to the integrity of the sport itself.

 

1 hour ago, appleboy said:

The tankers get it better then most. It is just about odds and how far you can slip in the lotto. It is also about the rest of the rounds. The lotto only effects the first round.

If we ended up in 29th then we can't slip past 5th. At third you also have the Vegas effect. Third means you are in forth and can slip  to 7th.

Simple math.

 

Wrong, and this has been beat to death.  So many factors not taken into consideration, the least of them the fact that it's a LOTTERY and that draft picks never turn out in linear order from the top down.  Rather than worry about 4th or 7th overall, one should be concerned with scouting and player evaluation in choosing the best or right player.

 

Can't wait until LA and Detroit get the first two picks, and almost hope that they do to spite all this loser-mentality nonsense.

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Anyone saying that this game does not matter because there is a lottery is wrong!

 

Assuming everything goes against the Canucks in the lottery the difference is 

win tommorrw Canucks pick 8th

lose tomorrow Canucks pick 5th (there are a couple other variables with the results of the last few games). No matter the results the Canucks will slide further back with a loss. 

 

this also doesn't even include the fact that Vancouver will have a much better chance at picking in the top 3 if we lose.  It's possible a team finishing 27th gets a top 3 pick but obviously the odds are worse than 29th. 

 

 

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7 hours ago, Coconuts said:

Wouldn't have written it up that way at the start of the season, but that's how it looks. If we lose to Arizona we likely lock down the second spot, because the way the Oilers are playing and the way we're playing we likely don't have a chance in hell unless Edmonton doesn't show up. God damn that's a depressing reality.

 

Could see Jersey taking the Wings or the Isles but likely not both. Would be nice to have a bigger buffer.

Couldn't have said it any better myself!

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36 minutes ago, Hutton Wink said:

That's exactly the point -- Toronto beat 5:1 odds.  It's all a crapshoot, and to claim the necessity of getting a 2% better chance when in the meantime you potentially damage or ruin the development of players and the team because of such mentality is horribly simple-minded and short-sighted, not to mention disrespectful to the integrity of the sport itself.

 

Wrong, and this has been beat to death.  So many factors not taken into consideration, the least of them the fact that it's a LOTTERY and that draft picks never turn out in linear order from the top down.  Rather than worry about 4th or 7th overall, one should be concerned with scouting and player evaluation in choosing the best or right player.

 

Can't wait until LA and Detroit get the first two picks, and almost hope that they do to spite all this loser-mentality nonsense.

Nothing you say makes any sense. No one is suggesting that the players or the coach get asked to throw the game. (Loser-Mentality) The management cut bait with the year when they traded Burrows and Hansen.(Fact) Fans are just looking at the odds and hoping for the best. It is math and can't be argued with. A top 5 pick gives you a better shot at the best player then an 8th pick. It is not rocket science that we are dealing with here.

Yes scouting is extremely important but the player your scouts want may not be there when you pick. The higher up you pick the better the opportunity. That also goes for the  latter rounds. Every position can count.

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1 hour ago, FireGillis said:

And anti tankers still won't get it.  It's not just about winning the lotto that matters when finishing as low as you can go, but also protecting how far you drop if you drop the max of three spots.  Finishing 2nd lowest and the lowest you can drop is 5th, compared to 7th finishing 4th.  It's a little fact anti tankers have yet to grasp. "More meaningless winssss!"

This!  I like your train of thought

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1 hour ago, JamesB said:

Benning has had 4 first round picks. He took Virtanen over Nylander and Ehlers, he took McCann over Pastrnak, he took Boeser, and he took Juolevi over Tkachuk. One of those picks was good (Boeser). The others were pretty big mistakes in my view. (And we through away a high second round pick last year on the Gudbranson trade.)

 

 

Although Tkachuk is looking like a good pick (and definitely the type of player that we need), we really won't know if he will end up being the better pick. Plus, at the time of the draft, defense was our biggest need. So I don't have a problem with the Juolevi pick.

 

Obviously the Virtanen pick isn't looking so good right now but hindsight is always 20/20. That and Pastrnak was drafted 25th overall. So it's not like JB was the only GM to miss out on him.

 

Let's wait a few more years and see how Juolevi and Virtanen turn out before we label Benning's draft record/ability. After all, I'd say 80% of CDC was calling for his head when he traded Shink for Granlund. Sometimes time is the only answer.

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