Mafia: California Dreaming [Mafia Win!!]

[Blue Jay 22]

57 minutes ago, Master Radishes said:

SHROOP...? 

?

 

Btw, I see you Stamkos

 

[JAY JAY]

@Zfetch

You need to clear some messages (PM's)

[Master Radishes]

Theory: Zfetch was Sheriff

 

First of all, NVIM is likely the Vig. 'Inigo Montoya' is not an SK character. T-rex, in the last two games, gave his SKs names that were obviously SK.

 

That means the Vig is still alive, as they are last in kill order, so it is impossible for any of our three dead specials to have been Vig.

 

This means the Doc and Sheriff are dead. J-23 claimed TB which now seems likely to be genuine. So either Hashtag or Zfetch were Sheriff.

 

Hashtag gave no indication of who she thought clean/guilty other than suspecting otherwise. Otherwise is now known to be TP.

 

Zfetch did give a very clear indicator of who he thought was scum. He also posted rather distinctly this game, saying things like:

 

On 2017-05-09 at 9:09 PM, Zfetch said:

I investigated BJ and he came up mafia. 

 

On 2017-05-10 at 7:51 PM, Zfetch said:

Any scum list containing me is factually incorrect.

 

17 hours ago, Zfetch said:

You can't lynch me it will be a mistake.

 

14 hours ago, Zfetch said:

Voting me out rn would be unwise and a very odd choice.

 

He was telling us all along he was Special. Which seems more likely: Doc or Sheriff? We don't know, of course. But I think it's reasonable to assume Z could have been Sheriff.

 

 

More to follow.

[Blue Jay 22]

I already see where this is going. Let me crash the train before it picks up. If Zfetch was sheriff and thought I was mafia, why would he vote for the guy I went after hard last round?

[AV.]

12 minutes ago, Blue Jay 22 said:

I already see where this is going. Let me crash the train before it picks up. If Zfetch was sheriff and thought I was mafia, why would he vote for the guy I went after hard last round?

So as to avoid making himself an obvious threat to the mafia team to prevent him from being MK'd.

 

Proved to be futile since they took him out which means that the mafia team picked up on his soft-claims and he was speaking the truth.

 

Players I could see picking up on his soft-claims:  Yourself, TL, MR.

 

 

[Blue Jay 22]

1 minute ago, Alain Vigneault said:

So as to avoid making himself an obvious threat to the mafia team to prevent him from being MK'd.

 

Proved to be futile since they took him out which means that the mafia team picked up on his soft-claims and he was speaking the truth.

 

Players I could see picking up on his soft-claims:  Yourself, TL, MR.

 

 

That makes no sense for Zfetch. If you think of him as an intelligent player, then surely you would think he would go after his mafia suspect rather than the theory of a potential bus. Zfetch and I had a back and forward confrontation last round. He could have delivered a bombshell on me or try to sway the consensus on me, but he didn't.

 

How are you so sure the mafia team picked up on his soft claim as well and not that his MK was a result of them targetting a senior player or taking a random shot?

 

Btw, I didn't pick up on his soft claim. Out of your list I would agree with those names, but you also left out a name who could have, and who obviously did pick up or at least theorize that he was soft claiming: AV

 

vote AV

[Blue Jay 22]

Btw, I'm not making the assumption that Zfetch was the sheriff. I don't know if he was the sheriff, nor do I know if he did investigate me, but I do know it would be impossible for me to come back as mafia in an investigation. Therefore, there is no indication that he was sheriff and that he could have been another special.

[AV.]

Just now, Blue Jay 22 said:

That makes no sense for Zfetch. If you think of him as an intelligent player, then surely you would think he would go after his mafia suspect rather than the theory of a potential bus. Zfetch and I had a back and forward confrontation last round. He could have delivered a bombshell on me or try to sway the consensus on me, but he didn't.

 

How are you so sure the mafia team picked up on his soft claim as well and not that his MK was a result of them targetting a senior player or taking a random shot?

 

Btw, I didn't pick up on his soft claim. Out of your list I would agree with those names, but you also left out a name who could have, and who obviously did pick up or at least theorize that he was soft claiming: AV

 

vote AV

In a game of no PMs, he has less leeway and safety as sheriff.  Therefore, I speculate his plan was to float the claim that you were mafia as softly as possible without making him an obvious pick as sheriff for the mafia to target (although he flat out said it).  In round one, we're all capable of throwing out claims that turn out to be very accurate in the end so its easy to see why the mafia wouldn't kill him just yet.  They probably just figured he threw out your name by chance.  In his later posts (thanks for digging MR), you see that he was alluding to a role, which is likely the sheriff.  Maybe nobody from the mafia picked up on it and the kill selection happened to be random but I don't buy that when names like MR, TL, yourself, maybe even myself are still on the board.  Did Z really look that much more townie than all of us?

 

Saying that you didn't pick up on his claim really doesn't do much as a defence.  You could have teammates that did or you could be purposely playing naive.

 

What's most telling for me at the moment is that right after MR's post, you tried to stop a potential wagon before it even occurs.  MR didn't even vote for you at that point.  A wagon could have picked up in round one but it didn't.  Why were you so nonchalant then and aren't now?

[Blue Jay 22]

6 minutes ago, Alain Vigneault said:

In a game of no PMs, he has less leeway and safety as sheriff.  1.Therefore, I speculate his plan was to float the claim that you were mafia as softly as possible without making him an obvious pick as sheriff for the mafia to target (although he flat out said it).  In round one, we're all capable of throwing out claims that turn out to be very accurate in the end so its easy to see why the mafia wouldn't kill him just yet.  They probably just figured he threw out your name by chance.  In his later posts (thanks for digging MR), you see that he was alluding to a role, which is likely the sheriff.  Maybe nobody from the mafia picked up on it and the kill selection happened to be random but I don't buy that when names like MR, TL, yourself, maybe even myself are still on the board.  Did Z really look that much more townie than all of us?

 

Saying that you didn't pick up on his claim really doesn't do much as a defence.  You could have teammates that did or you could be purposely playing naive.

 

2. What's most telling for me at the moment is that right after MR's post, you tried to stop a potential wagon before it even occurs.  MR didn't even vote for you at that point.  A wagon could have picked up in round one but it didn't.  Why were you so nonchalant then and aren't now?

1. This is the first time I am hearing of this speculation and its only coming after MR's theory. Again, this is only insulting Zfetch's intelligence. To begin with, his claim that I was mafia came in round 1, so I would have been an N0 investigation. Do you really think Zfetch would pay no attention to me until I called him out last round in round 2, and then subsequently vote for J23 as his final vote, whom I was the first to call out at the beginning of round 2? How does that make sense to you? I asked that before and you didn't answer it. I think that deserves an answer because that is the basis to my whole defense.

 

2. What potential wagon in round 1 are you talking about? I had no votes on me for the first 2 rounds. Are you asking why I didn't take his whole investigation thing seriously in round 1? Because obviously I didn't take it seriously since I knew it to be untrue. You are comparing apples to plutonium between Zfetch's statement and MR's post. Zfetch's claim came in R1 and no votes subsequently followed - MR's post came in R3 with one vote already on me and sheriff theory that could potentially see my lynch if left unchecked as it casts me in a negative light.

 

[AV.]

4 hours ago, Master Radishes said:

It was? Which parts were solid? It's all baseless speculation based off an assumption that Arm and I were colluding. There's no actual line of reasoning to it. 

Forgot to respond to this.

 

I thought it was solid because of his effort to build a case.

 

I have no idea if he's right about any of it but I feel putting in that work is very townie on him.  I don't really think he does any of that as maifa or even chooses you if he is mafia and was looking for a player to form a wagon on.

[Blue Jay 22]

Unvote for now

 

[AV.]

3 minutes ago, Blue Jay 22 said:

1. This is the first time I am hearing of this speculation and its only coming after MR's theory. Again, this is only insulting Zfetch's intelligence. To begin with, his claim that I was mafia came in round 1, so I would have been an N0 investigation. Do you really think Zfetch would pay no attention to me until I called him out last round in round 2, and then subsequently vote for J23 as his final vote, whom I was the first to call out at the beginning of round 2? How does that make sense to you? I asked that before and you didn't answer it. I think that deserves an answer because that is the basis to my whole defense.

 

2. What potential wagon in round 1 are you talking about? I had no votes on me for the first 2 rounds. Are you asking why I didn't take his whole investigation thing seriously in round 1? Because obviously I didn't take it seriously since I knew it to be untrue. You are comparing apples to plutonium between Zfetch's statement and MR's post. Zfetch's claim came in R1 and no votes subsequently followed - MR's post came in R3 with one vote already on me and sheriff theory that could potentially see my lynch if left unchecked as it casts me in a negative light.

 

Apologies for quoting the host but...

 

Quote

 

The Sheriff: The goal of the Sheriff is to uncover as many mafia members as he/she can. For every 24 hours, the Sheriff is allowed to submit 1 name to be investigated STARTING ON THE FIRST NIGHT. Meaning that the Sheriff must PM T-Rex the person that he/she chooses to investigate and the GM will reply with whether or not the player is a member of the mafia. If the Sheriff investigates Doctor or Vigilante, the investigation results will show the actual result. But if Sheriff investigates the Serial Killer, it will return as a TP.

 

SHERIFF NOTE: Please direct all investigations to T-Rex via PM. Sheriff's round start as soon as I send out the PMs. Next available investigation will be based on when you first submitted your initial investigation.

 

Unless I'm lacking in reading comprehension at the moment, it says nothing about receiving a N0 investigation or that a N1 investigation is a night-action.  This means he could have investigated you and received results right away.  Again, I can only speculate but I imagine he didn't want to go all out on getting you lynched for it would have made him an easy pick for the mafia which is why he didn't push the claim as much as he should have.  

 

I actually intended to respond to your question but got too caught up in making my points.  But here's my answer:  Why he voted for J23, the best I can offer is that maybe he thought like the rest of us and saw his post as scummy and deserving of lynching.  It's possible he saw that by you pushing for J23 that you were bussing a potential teammate and went along with it (to keep quiet, avoid suspicion of the mafia, look sheepish, whatever the reason for not stepping up and suggesting you).  After all, if he knew you were mafia and J23 also looked to be mafia, getting pontentially two out is better than getting just one guaranteed (well debatable but I think you see what I'm trying to say).  In hindsight, he should have pushed for you because it would have preserved a TP and special in J23 but if he believed J23 was mafia, maybe he felt best to get him out by lynch first and push for you in the next round or hope Inigo would take you out (I did suggest that he take one of you or Z out).  I'll give you a point by saying most sheriffs would probably just go with what they know rather than what they think but I don't believe that what I'm suggesting in my speculation is far too intricate for Zfetch to think of and act on in order to preserve his status as alive.

 

As for the wagon comment, I guess the urgency to stop it right away was off-putting and inconsistent with what to reasonably expect.  You're worried that people will look at what MR quoted and put it together to get you lynched.  Yes, I'm on you with a vote but no guarantee that a wagon would form.  But when Zfetch flat out came out and said you were mafia, you just played it off because you knew it to be untrue.  Why is this time around really different if you know it to be untrue? 

 

FWIW, Zfetch said that me and Armbar are probably teammates.  I guess I should be worried that the town will turn on me because the likely sheriff associated me with a mafia?

 

 

[otherwise]

6 hours ago, T-rex930 said:

 

Napa Valley Inigo Montoya:

@otherwise gets drunk with Inigo Montoya and gets his head chopped off. 

 

*her

[Master Radishes]

A guy has dinner and watches a movie and he comes back to find another player has laid out his exact case against BJ? Pfft. Rude, AV.

 

But yeah, obviously Zfetch's soft claim is something to seriously consider. He also confronted Blue Job in R2 though did not vote for him. Could easily be a Sheriff trying to push a choice without being too obvious. I think AV has covered this all.

 

Also, two more things from this post:

 

6 hours ago, Blue Jay 22 said:

I know I'm not mafia and I've decided I don't want to lynch MR this round because he's actively contributing to the scum hunt unlike the majority of remaining players. That leaves:

 

AV

DM

Stamkos

TL

Virt

 

Gonna have to take a closer look at AV and TL, but I think it should be noted that DM has been putting all in energy on taking down MR this game rather than expanding his suspects.

 

Bold 1: So we're barely into the new round, there's been little discussion, and BJ has already ruled out one of the players because they (i.e. I) are active. Not 'because I think he's TP.' No, 'I don't want to' because 'he's actively contributing.' There's a difference in that sort of wording/claiming. I think I'm TP; I think I'm doing a good job of looking TP; and I even think I'll likely be the scum's kill tonight all things considered. But another TP who is in the dark does not leave me off the hook so easily.

 

Bold 2: I think this is a classic case of SHROOP (Scott Howard's Rule of Odd Posting [Scott is a player from other mafia sites.]) Basically, a mafia is going to be far more concerned with the wording/tone of their posts, and will therefore be far more likely to read over before submitting and edit or re-draft to alter their tone. This leads to unintentional grammatical errors of a certain kind. Not basic spelling or punctuation errors, but ones that look like someone began to write one thing, then decided to switch to a different phrasing. It's very easy to accidentally leave a word in, etc. I realise TP will edit their posts as well - I do - but I think it could apply here because the relevant sentence is a simple sentiment to express, and I'm not sure a TP would really care to re-draft how they express it.

[Master Radishes]

2 hours ago, Alain Vigneault said:

Forgot to respond to this.

 

I thought it was solid because of his effort to build a case.

 

I have no idea if he's right about any of it but I feel putting in that work is very townie on him.  I don't really think he does any of that as maifa or even chooses you if he is mafia and was looking for a player to form a wagon on.

Thanks for clarifying. I agree with you - DM is putting in some actual work, as flawed as it may be.

[Master Radishes]

Anyway, Vote Blue Jay. I am wary of tunneling at a crucial point in the game, but I don't, at the moment, see a more viable candidate.

 

Since the Vig seems to be listening to me, maybe hold off tonight. We can't afford to drop in numbers too fast if we're wrong about BJ.

[DarthMelvin]

1 hour ago, Master Radishes said:

Thanks for clarifying. I agree with you - DM is putting in some actual work, as flawed as it may be.

Thanks  But I must say this your theory has a flaw. 

 

As I looked back on all the specials that have been killed Hash had my suspect Armbar  up fo a vote. Then he died.

 

Z had BJ now he's dead.

 

What makes for a solid case though is BJ's reaction to this. 

 

VOTE BlueJay22

 

 

[Time Lord]

AV's case against BJ seems legit and I didn't like BJ's response, especially this part of his post:

 

4 hours ago, Blue Jay 22 said:

How are you so sure the mafia team picked up on his soft claim as well and not that his MK was a result of them targetting a senior player or taking a random shot?

 

Btw, I didn't pick up on his soft claim. Out of your list I would agree with those names, but you also left out a name who could have, and who obviously did pick up or at least theorize that he was soft claiming: AV

 

vote AV

 

His defense is basically "no you're mafia"

 

Vote BJ

 

[Blue Jay 22]

59 minutes ago, DarthMelvin said:

Thanks  But I must say this your theory has a flaw. 

 

As I looked back on all the specials that have been killed Hash had my suspect Armbar  up fo a vote. Then he died.

 

Z had BJ now he's dead.

 

What makes for a solid case though is BJ's reaction to this. 

 

VOTE BlueJay22

 

 

I'm getting lynched. When I die and come back as TP, if the game is not over, here is who you vote for.

[Blue Jay 22]

Gonna lol when it's revealed after the game Zfetch isn't even the sheriff.