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timeline to contention


whytelight

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What are your thoughts on a reasonable timeline for us to contend again?

 

The Penguins, for example, sucked from 2001 to 2006.  They now have 2 cups since then.

 

We could very well suck hard until 2022....which I'm ok with.    Develop those pics and prospects and take runs from 2022 onward. 

 

 

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Sure hope I don't have to wait til 2022 like u say... 

 

The penguins drafted 2 generational talents in Gino and Sid... Can argue 3 with Fluery. In the same world, we should have had 2 top 3 picks back to back years but they changed the rules on us... sucking doesn't get you the top pick anymore. 

 

The nhl sucks. 

 

Jimbo is a terrible gm but his rookie scouting which seems to be incredible could be the difference... Perhaps his drafting in later rounds can land us a gem and get us to a cup... 

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I hope we don't have to wait that long. 

 

When the WCE era ended in 2006, I was thinking that the Sedins will at best be a PPG player and that this team would suck for a while... I was completely wrong. Sedins proved me wrong by becoming the best offensive duo of their era, Kesler's hands caught up to his feet, we got Luongo, and Salo, Bieksa, Burrows, Edler, Hansen, Schneider all stepped up out of nowhere and all of a sudden, we became a great team.

 

I think the next season is going to be pretty bad. But beyond that, we really don't know what will happen. Some of the players in the system may prove us all very wrong by reaching a whole new level. Granlund has already surprised me as did Horvat to some extent. No one saw Stecher and Hutton to play this good. Juolevi, Boeser, Goldobin, Demko and Dahlen are all promising prospects.

 

And we might draft great this season. And who knows? We might finally get to win the lottery and draft a franchise player in the next draft? Look at Toronto, you add one franchise player in Matthews and all of a sudden they make the playoffs. Sure, they have great coaching as well as some grade A prospects like Nylander and Marner but without Matthews, I don't think Nylander and Marner alone would have carried that team to the playoffs this season. A lot can change in one or two season in the current NHL.

 

I'm expecting the next season to be one of the worst but after that, I think we will be competitive. Two years is enough of a time for most of our prospects to step up.

 

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I'd say we begin to flirt with the playoffs by the 2019-20 season or so. As for Cup contention, add another two years or so I'd say. By 2022 we should be a great team if things go well.

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It takes a perfect storm, with all aspect of the roster Benning assembly straight from the draft and if all panned out accordingly to their timeline, it just takes 20 roster players that drafted and developed plus some depth in AHL for call-ups for any injury that might occur.   If you average 3 to 4 NHLers per draft year that is above their weight in term of skill and work ethics, it will take about 5-6 years for a complete roster turnover if you start from 2013, at the most for them to be a playoff contender and plus 2 or 3 extra years for young talent beating out the regulars that was a part of rebuild process and is surplus in term of talents and use them for a trade for any upgrade for proven players like a top C or a top D.  It could take just 3 years if you pick all 7 picks for all 7 rounds within 3 years who panned out, a lucky three 7 stars.    So far, we have gotten about 10 potential young talents from last 3 years alone to go with established veterans but this is not enough because of the core that is getting older so you may need another 10 to complete the roster turnovers.    If there is positive attribution about Benning is the ability to draft players from any rounds to become a regulars here.  If he is able to improve pro scouting staff, and we're golden.  One thing I wish that WCE era is that the Sedin would be at 2009-2011 form in 2003 and could have won the cup one of those years.  It just takes a perfect storm for the team to be a unstoppable force for one of future years.  

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Gotta think it's probably sooner than we imagine.

Like @khay said, some of the young guns are already sticking with us (Bo, Sven, Brock, Granny, Troy, Hutton, probably Goldie) and forming a foundation moving forward (with the young vets e.g. Sutter, Eddie, Tanev), and more will be added as they become ready (Thatcher, Olli, Dahlen, Jake, Gaudette?).  With the maturation of the NHL-roster guys and prospects alike, and in particular if Thatcher really becomes a stud #1, then he and the emerging back end group can form a solid backbone for a rising contender (much like how the Predators were built from the back end out).  The forward group already has solid scoring potential, it just might be a matter of when they are ready (and if we can get a Vilardi or Mittelstadt this year then even the center group could be really good). 

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I'm an optimist.  Two years ago we were 28th.  Last year we were heading for about 24th before Benning started the tank up.  I fully expect, because we will be throwing the kids in the deep end next season, that we will once again be a team heading for around the 24th place in the league.  Give us a year or two after that for steady progress and we should be back in the finals race about 2020. 

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It will be a while.  Don't hold your breath.

 

Horvat is our best player going forward and he's very good, but keep in mind the difference between Horvat and someone like Crosby, Malkin, Kane, Toews, Karlsson, etc.  Horvat has the potential to maybe be a Selke finalist, but consider where such a player (e.g. Kesler) is on the depth chart of a Cup contender.  It's usually not the #1 player on the team.

 

We need, need, need top end talent - Art Ross / Hart Trophy talent - and we're unlikely to get our hands on that without getting lucky in the draft lottery in a good year.

 

We have to get our hands on another Bure / Daniel / Henrik level talent, if not more than one, and as it stands there are no guarantees that it will happen at all, let alone in accordance with any desirable timeline.  The Canucks have had very few Hart candidates or even 100-point players at all in their history, so we are somewhat used to not having the Grade A talent that is generally needed to win a Cup.

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7 hours ago, whytelight said:

What are your thoughts on a reasonable timeline for us to contend again?

 

The Penguins, for example, sucked from 2001 to 2006.  They now have 2 cups since then.

 

We could very well suck hard until 2022....which I'm ok with.    Develop those pics and prospects and take runs from 2022 onward. 

 

 

Not sure I will still be alive.

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1 hour ago, Kevin Biestra said:

It will be a while.  Don't hold your breath.

 

Horvat is our best player going forward and he's very good, but keep in mind the difference between Horvat and someone like Crosby, Malkin, Kane, Toews, Karlsson, etc.  Horvat has the potential to maybe be a Selke finalist, but consider where such a player (e.g. Kesler) is on the depth chart of a Cup contender.  It's usually not the #1 player on the team.

 

We need, need, need top end talent - Art Ross / Hart Trophy talent - and we're unlikely to get our hands on that without getting lucky in the draft lottery in a good year.

 

We have to get our hands on another Bure / Daniel / Henrik level talent, if not more than one, and as it stands there are no guarantees that it will happen at all, let alone in accordance with any desirable timeline.  The Canucks have had very few Hart candidates or even 100-point players at all in their history, so we are somewhat used to not having the Grade A talent that is generally needed to win a Cup.

I agree:  We have a few B+ and possibly one or two A- types of players.   We lack the A and A+ players.  Lucky drafting is really the only way to acquire that type of talent.  Trading away 3 B+ players for one A+ does not make a lot of sense. 

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There isn't a magical formula. There is a human element that can't be projected. 

 

Look at Buffalo, they've been loading with talent for a LONG time and have an elite level centre to build around. I expect they will be improved this year, but who knows?

 

It takes a strong foundation built around 2 elements; 1) Talent 2) Effort. Without both of those in big supply a team goes nowhere. Talent is acquired, effort can be taught. 

 

As it stands, Canucks don't have enough of both. 1 lucky strike in the draft can solve talent, good coaching/management can solve effort. 

 

IF i were in JB shoes i would continue to acquire talent as fast as possible, then when you feel talent is there, start weeding out the passengers and loading with effort guys. Thats when you get on a run. Look at Ottawa, they weren't supposed to be where they are, but add in some big time effort guys to a few high talent guys and boom. winning formula. 

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8 hours ago, The 5th Line said:

It's literally impossible to predict, I don't know why anyone even bothers.  After the Leafs scorched earth they were predicting a 5-7 year wait period...1 season later they nearly beat the Capitals in the first round.

 

 

This right here.

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8 hours ago, The 5th Line said:

It's literally impossible to predict, I don't know why anyone even bothers.  After the Leafs scorched earth they were predicting a 5-7 year wait period...1 season later they nearly beat the Capitals in the first round.

 

 

True, but the Leafs got Matthews, who looks to be even better than McDavid - especially in the playoffs. 

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