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[Discussion] How close are the Canucks really?


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Compete for a cup?

 

hard to really put a timeline on it but I see no resemblance to us and what is happening in the conference finals right now from player personnel to systems on out.

 

personally I see contending and making the playoffs as two different things.

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19 minutes ago, riffraff said:

Compete for a cup?

 

hard to really put a timeline on it but I see no resemblance to us and what is happening in the conference finals right now from player personnel to systems on out.

 

personally I see contending and making the playoffs as two different things.

Agreed, I think we're a few pieces away from making the playoffs but not sure if this young core will ever contend, we may need to wait until the NEXT generation. Looking around the league at the elite young teams, our young core aren't even 25% of what they need to be to compete with the Oilers, Panthers, Jets, Maple Leafs and Flames for example. We're well off. Horvat is our best player and he's a scrub compared to Matthews and McDavid to be brutally honest.

 

It'd be nice to have at least one generational talent, and it's not coming in the 2017 draft so we'll have to draft and scout well, and stock up on decent players. 2018's Dahlin would, to be honest, change the franchise completely, but barring some miracle, I don't see us making a deep run soon.

 

Even if in the ideal world we acquire a top line center and top pairing defenceman in the next year or two to go along with our young core, I don't know if we'll be good enough. We have a potentially generational goalie in Demko who will get us to the playoffs. Fantastic. No one else is generational or elite. Horvat is close to elite. Juolevi looks like he'll be sound, a great top-4 guy, but far from Norris-worthy. All of our skilled wingers have potential but again, none of them are Laine/Ovechkin-good unless Boeser can blow it up.

 

We're going to have to get a bit lucky if we want to win a Cup. It'll start with savvy trades at the 2017 draft, but really come down to the 2018 overall pick.

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We're still at least 2 years away from making the playoffs, IMO. The Sedins will be gone by then and we'll need a couple young forwards to replace their 50+ point production at that time if we want to compete for a spot (Boeser? Goldobin? Someone new we acquire?). Then it'll take probably another 2 years to actually become a legit contender. This is all assuming Demko becomes the true #1 we think he can be, Juolevi successfully takes over for Edler and we find someone to replace the hard minutes Tanev eats up assuming that in 2-4 years he will probably have declined a bit (or might not be on the team all together).

 

Which is about 7 years for the full rebuild (if almost everything goes right), which is too long, but we won't get into that in this thread :P

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This is starting to feel like the old days to me. Edmonton will be leading the division and making playoff runs consistently, Calgary will be their runner-up, and somewhere below that will be the Canucks. Sometimes in the playoffs and sometimes out, but never a real cup threat.

 

With the way things are going I'm not confident this Canucks team has the makings of a steady contender, especially with what's going on in Alberta. If things do go this route though I'd bet there will be a year where the cards fall our way/we catch lightning in a bottle and go on an '82/'94 type run.

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WE are missing many things.   The first thing we are MISSING are FANS that will CHEER and not get angry if one does cheer.   OMG, sometimes I hate being a Season Ticket HOLDER here just because of that. . .  

If we are one or two years away from getting the right players through the draft which I believe is true, then we are 5-7 years away from being a Contender . . .   So, lets start cheering these boys through this pain that we have to go through.  

I went to the first two games of ROUND 2 to see our boy BURR in Ottawa.   SENS won both of those games and were behind by two goals with 4 minutes left in the second game.   They tied it and it went to overtime and they stayed in it to win it.   I had the best time of my life - those fans cheered from the beginning of the game to the end and we don't even do that in the PLAYOFFS, never mind the regular season . . .

IMG_2377.JPG

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6 hours ago, goblix said:

Not many vets left...

Sutter and Erickson are pretty close to untradeable. Sedins not going anywhere... Pretty much only leaves Tanev and Edler :P

 

Also to OP... Boeser doesn't really play like a PWF, he's plays more like a sniper. IF you want a PWF then hope for Virtanen to develop.

 

My guess is 2-3 years we'll start trending upwards.

I know that I'm shoe-horning a few players into the model.  Namely, Boeser and Juolevi.  But it's only a guideline.  I would see both those players as future core pieces.

 

And like I say, with future core players in place, we have to wait for them to develop which means 2-3 years (some would argue more) before the Canucks would be competitive.  This years draft pick would likely be 5 years before having a real impact.

 

Support pieces always need to be added and maintained.  

 

The point is, while the overall team performance in in the sewer, most of the pieces that they need are already in the system and more good players are on the way with high draft picks.

 

 

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3-5 years away they went with the oilers decade long model. Pretend to be "competeative" for three years realize the media and hockey experts were right and the team has no talent sell and draft for 2-3 years develope and be bad enough to hopefully draft a game changer for 2-3 years. 

Go through 3-5 coaches and 2-4 gms before finding one that has a plan and the skill to execute it and doesn't stick his foot in his mouth at  every presser.

 

 

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I'm thinking this year and next year of bottom dwelling and a constant rise from the bottom started in year 3 with some good luck drafting and players coming Into their primes along with good signings and trading id say the earliest 3 years from now 

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Like others have said were probably 2-3 drafts of picking in the top 10 (we will not pick # 1 overall so no generational talents unfortunately). Then you add development time for those picks which adds a few more years. That said making the playoffs and actually being considered a contender are different things. For the playoffs could see by 2021-22 but to be a contender again (and that means getting lucky with our picks and development) probably looking at late next decade.

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4 minutes ago, Ronaldoescobar said:

Like others have said were probably 2-3 drafts of picking in the top 10 (we will not pick # 1 overall so no generational talents unfortunately). Then you add development time for those picks which adds a few more years. That said making the playoffs and actually being considered a contender are different things. For the playoffs could see by 2021-22 but to be a contender again (and that means getting lucky with our picks and development) probably looking at late next decade.

BASED on YOUR comment, which could very well be true, I most likely won't be doing hockey . . .     I am OLD now . . .

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3 minutes ago, Zhukini said:

Two more years and then steady improvement from the third year on is the popular idea that I agree with.

 

Whats interesting is who of Linden, Benning and Travis will be around to get to the glory days. 

What is more interesting to me is where will I be?   I am OLD!!!!!

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59 minutes ago, billabong said:

We're in that Cogliano, gagner, Nilsson part of the rebuild that edm was in like 6 years ago soooo ya were be bottom 5 for at least 2 more years 

Hopefully the Canucks won't be drafting players like Riesen, Henrich, Rita, Mikhnov, Niinimaki, Pouliot, Schremp, Paajarvi and Yakupov in the first round.

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I think it needs to be expanded.

 

1.  Centre 1  ....................  Horvat

2.  Centre 2  ..................... ?

3.  Power forward  ...........  Virtanen

4.  Playmaking wingers .... Baertschi, Granlund

5.  Skilled goal scoring ....   Goldobin, Dahlen, Boeser

6.  Specialist  ...................  Gaudette, Cassels

7.  Offensive D  ...............   Stecher, Subban

8.  Shut down D  .............   Gudbranson, Juolevi

9.  Goalie  .......................  Demko

 

I think they're in fine shape so far, still need that #2C and scoring from the D.

 

C - Vilardi, Mittelstadt

D - Liljegren, Makar

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3 hours ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

Agreed, I think we're a few pieces away from making the playoffs but not sure if this young core will ever contend, we may need to wait until the NEXT generation. Looking around the league at the elite young teams, our young core aren't even 25% of what they need to be to compete with the Oilers, Panthers, Jets, Maple Leafs and Flames for example. We're well off. Horvat is our best player and he's a scrub compared to Matthews and McDavid to be brutally honest.

 

It'd be nice to have at least one generational talent, and it's not coming in the 2017 draft so we'll have to draft and scout well, and stock up on decent players. 2018's Dahlin would, to be honest, change the franchise completely, but barring some miracle, I don't see us making a deep run soon.

 

Even if in the ideal world we acquire a top line center and top pairing defenceman in the next year or two to go along with our young core, I don't know if we'll be good enough. We have a potentially generational goalie in Demko who will get us to the playoffs. Fantastic. No one else is generational or elite. Horvat is close to elite. Juolevi looks like he'll be sound, a great top-4 guy, but far from Norris-worthy. All of our skilled wingers have potential but again, none of them are Laine/Ovechkin-good unless Boeser can blow it up.

 

We're going to have to get a bit lucky if we want to win a Cup. It'll start with savvy trades at the 2017 draft, but really come down to the 2018 overall pick.

I wouldn't say we need a "generational" player to contend and there doesn't seem to be any coming soon as they only come ever generation. I do agree that we need some star power but that's all luck, could come in a form of 5th overall or in the 5th round, it's going to take good drafting and a lot of luck for us to get back to cup contender but for now I think playoffs are in 2 years.

 

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1 hour ago, Ronaldoescobar said:

Like others have said were probably 2-3 drafts of picking in the top 10 (we will not pick # 1 overall so no generational talents unfortunately). Then you add development time for those picks which adds a few more years. That said making the playoffs and actually being considered a contender are different things. For the playoffs could see by 2021-22 but to be a contender again (and that means getting lucky with our picks and development) probably looking at late next decade.

I have to disagree you on that, we have some pieces that will be ready in a couple years to put us in the playoffs. Are you going on the belief that none of our prospects and young players will ever get better and have to wait for the next wave of players?

 

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2-3 years on the bottom hopefully drafting/trading well. Those picks will need time to develop.

4-5 years from playoffs. Building momentum.

6-8 years contending. Young deep team ready to pounce.

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