CaptainLinden16 Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Year 2008 Round 2 Roman Josi Jake Allen Patrick Wierchioch Justin Schultz Derek Stepan Travis Hamonic Marco Scandella Jimmy Hayes 226 144 262 323 496 430 350 290 Round 3 Adam Henrique Zak Smith Lance Bouma Michael Stone Jori Lehtera 410 458 286 328 210 Round 4 Gustav Nyquist T.J. Brodie Dale Weise Braden Holtby 317 399 378 290 Round 5 Matt Martin Mark Borowiecki Matt Calvert 499 199 333 Round 6 Zac Rinaldo Tommy Wingels Ben Smith Cam Atkinson Jared Spurgeon 275 351 236 360 427 Round 7 Jason Demers Matt Bartkowksi 484 216 Year 2009 Round 2 Ryan O'Reilly Kyle Clifford Alex Chiasson Jakob Silfverberg Anton Lander Robin Lehner Richard Panik Eric Gelinas Dmitri Orlov Brandon Pirri Tomas Tatar 550 466 301 323 215 150 243 189 262 217 323 Round 3 Tyson Barrie Brayden McNabb Reily Smith Kevin Connauton Nicolas Deslauries Cody Eakin 316 221 344 182 200 359 Round 4 Casey Cizikas David Savard Craig Smith Mathias Ekholm Marcus Foligno Sami Vatanen 343 304 419 289 329 248 Round 5 Marcus Kruger Gabriel Borque Mike Hoffman 378 248 239 Round 6 Anders Lee Darcy Kuemper 240 97 Round 7 Jordan Nolan Erik Haula 288 243 Year 2010 Round 2 Justin Faulk Tyler Taffoli Devante Smith-Pelly Jon Merrill Alex Petrovic Ryan Spooner Martin Marincin Cale Jarnkrok Johan Larsson Oscar Lindberg Jason Zucker 377 272 260 198 140 197 173 229 178 114 228 Round 3 Joakim Nordstrom Radko Gudas Bryan Rust 183 252 105 Round 4 None Round 5 Brendan Gallagaher Petr Mrazek Michael Ferland John Klingberg 304 131 156 201 Round 6 Mark Stone Jesper Fast Dalton Prout 235 206 224 Round 7 NONE Year 2011 Round 2 Nikita Kucherov Matthew Nieto Markus Granlund Brandon Saad Victor Rask William Karlsson Dmitrij Jaskin Boone Jenner Thomas Jurco 264 243 162 346 218 162 181 245 160 Round 3 Adam Lowry Vincent Trocheck 217 207 Round 4 Tobias Rieder JG Pageau Johnny Gaudreau 213 229 213 Round 5 Andrew Shaw Nikita Nesterov 370 127 Round 6 Josh Manson 162 Round 7 Ondrej Palat 285 Year 2012 Round 2 Jake McCabe Chris Tierney Jordan Martinook Damon Severson 143 183 145 184 Round 3 Jimmy Vesey Shayne Gostisbehere Colton Parayko Fredrik Anderson 61 121 140 175 Round 4 Jacob Slavin Cedric Paquette Josh Anderson 121 174 77 Round 5 Ben Hutton Connor Carrick 125 108 Round 6 NONE Round 7 NONE Year 2013 Round 2 NONE Round 3 Anthony Duclair Brett Pesce Sven Adrighetto 140 127 82 Round 4 Andre Copp 124 Round 5 NONE Round 6 NONE Round 7 NONE Compound All Star Round 2 Roman Josi Ryan O'Reilly Justin Faulk Tyler Taffoli Nikita Kucherov Brandon Saad Boone Jenner 4.67% 226 550 377 272 264 346 245 Round 3 Tyson Barrie Shayne Gostisbehere 1.33% 316 121 Round 4 T.J. Brodie Braden Holtby Johnny Gaudreau 2.67% 399 290 213 Round 5 Mike Hoffman John Klingberg 1.33% 239 201 Round 6 Mark Stone Cam Atkinson 1.33% 235 360 Round 7 Ondrej Palat 0.67% 285 Compound Very solid Player Round 2 Justin Schultz Derek Stepan Travis Hamonic Damon Severson Victor Rask Ryan Spooner Jakob Silfverberg Dmitri Orlov Tomas Tatar Jimmy Hayes 11.33% 323 496 430 184 218 197 323 262 323 290 Round 3 Colton Parayko Vincent Trocheck Reily Smith Cody Eakin Michael Stone Jori Lehtera Adam Henrique 6.00% 140 207 344 359 328 210 410 Round 4 Craig Smith Mathias Ekholm Sami Vatanen Gustav Nyquist 4.67% 419 289 248 317 Round 5 Brendan Gallagaher 2.00% 304 Round 6 Anders Lee Jared Spurgeon 2.67% 240 427 Round 7 NONE 5 year draft odds.xls This is for all of our friends that worry about 4th and 5th round picks. I hope this helps you sleep easier at night. The numbers below the player are games played. The blue ones are top end players and the red ones are solid players. The excel is attached too. You have a 4.67% chance of getting Roman Josi that Means roughly 20 - 2nd round picks to get one Josi. So when Jim throws in a 5th rounder that has a 1.3% chance of becoming Mike Hoffman just cool your jets a little bit. That's nearly 100 - 5th round picks. That's a lot of picks that you would need to get one great player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kloubek Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Of course there will be certain players that still turn into something. On the flip side, not all 1st rounders are ever going to ever play in the NHL. The numbers are very stacked against later round picks, but we managed to find a few of the better ones in Bieksa and Hansen for certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainLinden16 Posted June 8, 2017 Author Share Posted June 8, 2017 1 minute ago, kloubek said: Of course there will be certain players that still turn into something. On the flip side, not all 1st rounders are ever going to ever play in the NHL. The numbers are very stacked against later round picks, but we managed to find a few of the better ones in Bieksa and Hansen for certain. Every team in the NHL has found a few players in later rounds. That's the point there is only a few to go around. The argument is that there is way too much value and emphasis put on acquiring picks as if they are lotto ticket to a superstar. Its very low probability stuff. If you can trade a 2nd for Baertschi or make similar types of trades then I say do it 100% of the time. Everyone loves the picks way too much. This should be a trading loop hole we should be exploiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, CaptainLinden16 said: Every team in the NHL has found a few players in later rounds. That's the point there is only a few to go around. The argument is that there is way too much value and emphasis put on acquiring picks as if they are lotto ticket to a superstar. Its very low probability stuff. If you can trade a 2nd for Baertschi or make similar types of trades then I say do it 100% of the time. Everyone loves the picks way too much. This should be a trading loop hole we should be exploiting. Higher the pick though, the more likely to get an impact player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainLinden16 Posted June 8, 2017 Author Share Posted June 8, 2017 Just now, Alflives said: Higher the pick though, the more likely to get an impact player. yes that is absolutely correct. No shame in collecting 30 first round picks. People just need to realize that a 3,4,5,6,7 round pick really is just an absolute toss in. They are almost entirely meaningless. Yes there are good players drafted in those rounds but you are talking about 1-2% odds that you get a real player. Even if your GM is 100% better at drafting which lets be honest isn't all that realistic. Then you are still talking about 3-4% odds. Terrible...just terrible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
appleboy Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Second round picks are too important to throw away. Tanev for more picks would be what I wold like to see. A third overall would be nice but a deal for a mid round first, a second plus prospects would do nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Neilsons Towel Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 @CaptainLinden16 This is not Canucks Talk. Moved to Around The NHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PunjabiCanucks Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 In terms of acquiring a pick, there may always be a prospect that you have your eyes on that is set to go in a specific round. For example, lets say we want someone who is set to go in the late 3rd round. We could gamble and hope to get said pick in the early 4th rd or use our early 3rd rd pick. If we have someone else in mind, we may use the 3rd pick on them, and trade our 4th rd pick and a 5th or so to get a late 3rd. All depends.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jägermeister Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Pretty cool analysis. I'd even go so far as to argue that picks in the tail end of the 1st round aren't even very valuable. A lot of people think the value of picks in the 20's are incredibly high, but in reality you're more likely to get a Tim Erixon or a Matt Puempel than you are to get a John Carlson or a David Pastrnak. You are lucky if you even draft a serviceable NHLer like a Mark Pysyk or a Brendan Gaunce or a at that point. If you can trade a late 1st for an established NHL player you're most likely getting a good value for the pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vinny in Vancouver Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 If it's Jim Benning picking, the value goes higher. I gotta give it to the guy on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kloubek Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 12 hours ago, vinny_in_vancouver said: If it's Jim Benning picking, the value goes higher. I gotta give it to the guy on that one. Maybe. Even with high picks he has been hit and miss. Jury is out on Juolevi, but I think we can safely say the Virtanen isn't likely to be the player we were all hoping he would be when he was selected. He's managed to get some solid pickups in his later picks with guys like Demko, Tryamkin (although that didn't go as expected), and Boeser (obviously a nice find in the late 1st) but he has had a lot of misses too - as do all GMs. Overall, I get the feeling he is better than average with his drafting but not exactly the mastermind some make him out to be. I think the overall reason for the OP is sound though. So many are upset that Benning has given away some draft picks, but even with his likely above-average ability it is unlikely such picks would have resulted in NHL players anyway - and especially not the kind of elite players we need in our lineup now. I would gladly trade all our 2nd and later round picks if we could combine them with a lesser roster player to yield a return of a top 6 forward or top pairing defenseman. Look at this year's draft, even. After the top two who are *almost* guaranteed to be NHL players, the rankings has been a game of musical chairs. Guys who were ranked up in the 5,6,7 range have fallen out of the top dozen. And guys like Makar and Glass who were originally ranked low in the first round and almost off the radar are now ranked up there. The fact is that assessing young talent is a huge challenge and it is so difficult to gauge how a player will develop, or how they might fare on a different ice surface or against bigger and faster competition. This is nothing new though. This thread focuses on later picks, but even if you look at 1st round picks, maybe 3/4 of them end up playing in the NHL, and perhaps only around 1/3 of them are actually what I would consider truly worthwhile NHL players, with maybe only a half dozen really high end players out of the entire bunch. Then, as pointed out already, it goes dramatically down from there in the later rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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