Camel Toe Drag Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 1 hour ago, .Naslund said: As of right now, I'm praying for a top 4 pick. My choices would be (in order): Dahlin, Svechnikov, Boqvist, Zadina You can just say you like Boqvist more than Zadina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlwaysACanuckFan Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isam Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 2 hours ago, ForsbergTheGreat said: More like a slow news day. The writer stated right off the bat that he has know idea and that is all just speculation. His brother is two years older. We’re they twins. . Considering he’s been on the international radar since he was 13 it would be pretty hard for someone to fake two years. Maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isam Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 3 hours ago, Alflives said: So this Svenchikov has small hands and doesn’t like cold weather? Okay, really don’t want him now. NFL drafts are actually pretty interesting Alf in how players can be marked down. Teams and media can do some shady $&!#, but it makes for some good tv. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canuckledraggin Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canuck Surfer Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 9 hours ago, aGENT said: I thought we were talking about 'in 4 years'? One good Tanev trade, a solid draft and further development and voila. Building blocks for future D core. And yes, even after this/next year, we should continue to draft D. And Edler is far from done. You should trade Edler. He's UFA a year earlier than Tanev 3 or 4 years older. And we have more prospect depth at left D. Including Juolevi who is at least ''close?'' And do it next deadline, when we get most value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canuck Surfer Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 8 hours ago, Eastcoast meets Westcoast said: Ellis for Tanev? Ellis finally can get top billing and Tanev can take the responsible minutes to allow Subban to take risks. We want youth assets if we engage in a trade. Will we will be likely contenders before next year? It makes zero sense to target Ellis who will be a UFA next summer. No matter how good he is.... Nor does Nashville, of any team in the NHL, need Tanev? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JeremyCuddles Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 11 hours ago, mikeyman109 said: are you implying that he isnt? did you see him on Staals goal last week against Minny? He battles ok in the corners and skates well but that doesnt mean success in his own end. he is undersize and we have way too many players that play smaller than they are. I like Stecher, i really do and if he is the One and I say ONE again for impact player that is that small and plays D great. We need to have a player like that for Offense from the D but only one. The rest have to be able to move the puck up and join the offense when they can do it intelligently.They are called defense for a reason. We need some better 1-4 D to help defend. You can nitpick everyone and to have less than stellar defensive plays. Even golden boy the walking crutch Tanev has moments where he blows it defensively. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messier's_elbow Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Do Boqvist and Liligren seem similar to you guys? Boqvist looks good, but Hughes is out producing Maker in NCAA. Hopefully they are both being heavily scouted, along with Bouchard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shiznak Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 6 hours ago, aGENT said: Elia is a great player but imo it's too early to make a move like that. Doesn't fit our timeline. Lol wut? So, exactly how does keeping a player two years older "fit" our timeline? Ideally you would want prospects or high draft picks coming our way, but if Nashville offers Ellis for Tanev straight up. I think you'd be insane not to take that deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nave Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 I'm starting to think we should take Boqvist or Bouchard over Zadina, because our defense is so outrageously bad at scoring. We only have 15 goals from our backend... both Boqvist and Bouchard could potentially match that on their own. If we get #3, maybe we should trade down and pick one of the two, and get the ammo to trade back into the top 10. If we could get two of Bouchard, Hughes, and Boqvist I would cream myself. Never going to happen, but I can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dura_mater Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Interesting article from Canucks army about Svechnikov. Apparently he could be 15-27 months older than his file claims. 20 Photo Credit: Miranda Zilkowsky Photography Facebook Twitter Google Reddit Andrei Svechnikov and the Pivotal Importance of Precise Age March 16, 2018, 4:00 PM | Jeremy Davis The 2017-18 season is winding down, and with playoff games on the horizon, we’ve got nearly a full season sample with which to assess this year’s crop of draft prospects. Trends have emerged, some players have separated themselves, while others are falling into the pack. One player that stands alone is Rasmus Dahlin, and unless your hot take machine is on overdrive, he should be a clear number one in your rankings. After that however, things aren’t as clear as they appeared earlier in the season. The second overall spot once seemed reserved for Russian power winger Andrei Svechnikov, but a couple of developments have leveled the playing field a little, opening up the number two spot for some good old competition. The 2018 World Junior Hockey Championship certainly has a role in this story, and Svechnikov’s chief forward competitors – Filip Zadina and Brady Tkachuk – were among the most impressive players in that tournament. Tkachuk compiled nine points (three goals, six assists) in seven games, while Zadina scored seven times in seven contests while adding an assist. Svechnikov was held goalless in five games, but did pick up five assists, while playing a noticeably smaller role with Russia that Tkachuk and Zadina did with their respective clubs. Svechnikov averaged just 11:07 per game in ice time, dwarfed by Tkachuk’s 19:36 and Zadina’s 20:27. If we look at their domestic campaigns from a statistical perspective, the order shakes out like this: Svechnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk. That’s the rank order provided by both the pGPS cohort model and the SEAL adjusted scoring model. It’s close, but Svechnikov remains on top. Moving away from just pure production measures, Svechnikov reigns supreme in on-ice measures as well, besting his competitors in both 5-on-5 goals-for percentage (GF%) and relative goals-for percentage (GF%rel). He provides a greater net value to his team in terms of goal differential than almost any other draft eligible player. All that is marvellously impressive, and I’d be inclined to declare him the winner of this race for second best. However, because Svechnikov plays in a junior league, all expectations need to be reconciled based on his exact age, and unfortunately, there’s a bit of an issue there: there are rumors starting to float around that Svechnikov may be older than his file claims him to be. Just to be up front on this, I want to clarify that I don’t know for certain if this is the case. I’ve been told that his birth date could actually been in 1998 (which would make him somewhere between 15 and 27 months older than he was thought to be), but I am in no position to be able to confirm this. So what follows here will simply be an exploration of what that difference in age would mean when analyzing his statistical output. If you are in a position to verify his age, and he does turn out to be older than he’s supposed to be, you’d do well to consider the implications of that, as laid out below. Before we get to that, let’s review a cautionary tale of a player who was in a similar situation. Grigorenko: A Cautionary Tale You may recall similar age-related rumors with Mikhail Grigorenko back in 2012. Once considered a sure-fire star, Grigorenko’s stock began to fall during his draft year when rumors began to circulate that he was a couple of years older than he was supposed to be. At least partially as a result of these rumors, Grigorenko, who tore apart the QMJHL that year collecting 85 points in 59 games, fell all the way to 12th, where he was taken by the poor Buffalo Sabres. Now, by all published accounts, that rumor was apparently false. According to Andrey Osadchenko of MapleLeafsNation at the time, the FSB – successors to the KGB, who you may have heard of – looked into the situation and found nothing suspicious. You can choose to believe that account if you wish, but given Russia’s penchant for corruption – which has only gotten worse since then – it’s awfully difficult to give anyone involved in that situation the benefit of the doubt. Another thing that’s gotten worse since 2012: Grigorenko’s career path. Since those stories about how Grigorenko’s age definitely wasn’t faked were written shortly before he was drafted, Grigorenko has done little more than struggle. He struggled to make the NHL, he struggled to stay in the NHL, and he struggled to produce there. Finally, just this season, he returned to mother Russia to join CSKA Moscow, after totaling just 64 points in 217 career NHL games split between Buffalo and the Colorado Avalanche. There are a myriad of potential explanations for why Grigorenko failed to become an impact player in the NHL. The teams he played for (Buffalo and Colorado) were outrageously bad, so he wasn’t exactly given a lot of help. The Sabres tried to shoehorn him into their lineup in both his draft-plus-one and draft-plus-two seasons, but both times he ended up back in junior. In his draft-plus-three season, he was again given a chance to stick on the big club roster, but spend the majority of that season in the American League instead. Additionally, reported issues with his work ethic and intensity level could easily have hampered his ability to succeed even if he was the age he was supposed to be. It’s hard to ignore that in those three seasons, Buffalo finished 23rd, 30th and 30th (the years that netted them Rasmus Ristolainen, Sam Reinhart, and Jack Eichel), and he did improve when he was traded to Colorado prior to the start of the next season (he averaged 25 points over two seasons there), but it’s also hard to ignore that Grigorenko’s career trajectory looked an awful lot more like a guy who was 20 was he was drafted than a guy who was 18. While we may never definitely know that truth about Grigorenko, the fact that similar rumors are now emerging around Svechnikov should, at the very least, make one stop and consider the implications of a false age, even if you aren’t inclined to believe that the rumors are true. As one person put it to me, by the time the draft rolls around, most teams will be aware whether or not he is older than he seems, but many won’t be aware of what that really means. So let’s take a journey through the numbers and see what those implications might be. What a Difference a Year (or Two) Makes Age adjustments have been a big part of what we do here at Canucks Army for quite some time. Former managing editor Rhys Jessop’s work prior to the 2014 draft introduced a lot of extremely important fundamental concepts that laid the groundwork for PCS (and subsequently pGPS), and age adjusting the production of draft eligible prospects was a part of that. Since then, age adjustments have been incorporated into both pGPS and SEAL (the ‘A’ stands for Age, as you may know), so I’ve become extremely familiar with the formulas myself. One thing that you’ll notice if you look at an array of age adjustment coefficient for various leagues is that they have quite a wide range. Junior leagues, capped at 20 or 21 years of age, tend to have large age adjustment coefficients, while professional leagues, with no age caps, have much smaller coefficients. Age Adjustment Coefficients for Forwards in Prominent NHL Feeder Leagues WHL OHL QMJHL USHL NCAA AHL SHL Liiga Russia Czech Allsvenskan Superelit 0.149 0.141 0.159 0.107 0.066 0.027 0.052 0.037 0.037 0.050 0.063 0.140 The reason for this, in my opinion, is the age ranges of the leagues. In the junior leagues, specifically the CHL, where there is an age range of only about five years, growth and development play a massive role. The different in physical and mental maturity between a 16 and a 19 is enormous, and their point rates are often reflective of that. The coefficients above are drawn from a pool of players that played at least three seasons in a given league (to reduce the effect of mortality) between 1990 and 2016. In the CHL leagues, players can expect to gain a point per game boost between 0.14 and 0.16 for each year of development. That’s a huge amount, and it can seriously affect the statistical projection of a player if the age is changed even by a year or two. Since he’s the topic of our discussion, let’s take a look at Svechnikov here. First, let’s look at how his SEAL adjusted scoring rate (which, again, takes into account exact age), and how it changes as months are added to his age. First of all, Svechnikov’s situational production seems built for SEAL – he thrives in all the right areas, and the areas in which is isn’t among the league’s best (such 5-on-5 secondary assists) are areas that he can get away with having lower rates in. Svechnikov, as it stands, gets a small bump from age adjustments, as the system adjusts his production as if he were exactly 18 years old at the cut off date (September 15th prior to the start of the season). Naturally, once you start adding months to his age, that age adjustment bonus disappears and quickly becomes a deficit. The following chart shows the different SEAL adjustments at a variety of precise ages, starting at his reported age (17.47) and increasing in increments of three months as you proceed down the chart. The data labels in the middle represent his SEAL adjusted rate, while the error bars (in white with a red glow) denote the change from raw points per game to SEAL adjusted points per game. Next we’ll perform the same exercise with pGPS. First, if we assume that his reported age is correct, Svechnikov looks like a pGPS stud. His 99.6% is the highest expected likelihood of success of anyone available in the draft (though Rasmus Dahlin simply doesn’t have any comparables since he’s scoring at an unprecedented rate for a teenaged defenceman in the SHL). Svenchnikov’s comparables currently include the likes of Steven Stamkos, Tyler Seguin, Taylor Hall, Rick Nash, and Eric Staal – clearly we’re dealing with some elite offensive talent here. But what if we increase his age a little bit? Similar to what I did with Cole Cassels, where I ran pGPS numbers based on a spectrum of production at his precise age, I put together this spectrum chart below for Svechnikov based on his exact production with varying ages. The yellow line signifies his reported age, with his 99.6% expected likelihood of success percentage. The green area indicates the range of ages possible if we operate under assumption that the 1998 birth year rumor has truth to it. You can see how precipitously his XLS% drops as his potential age increases. It’s also notable that even as he increases towards age-20, his likelihood of success is still very high. The conclusion to draw from that is that even if Svechnikov is 18 to 24 months older than he’s supposed to be, he’s still a very promising prospect. As it stands, Svechnikov ranks second in SEAL adjusted scoring (to Dahlin) and first in pGPS expected value (with Dahlin essentially being off the charts). If we imagine an 18-month increase in exact age, giving him a September 26th, 1998 birthday and a precise age of 18.97, Svechnikov drops to sixth in pGPS expected value, and twelfth in SEAL adjusted scoring. Conclusion I’ll say this once more: I don’t have any conclusive evidence regarding Andrei Svechnikov’s age or birthday, so don’t bother asking. There will undoubtedly be people that scoff at these rumors, and call them ridiculous, much as many did with Grigorenko in 2012. I’m not here trying to convince anyone that he needs to drop because he’s too old. What I am trying to do is demonstrate the paramount importance of precise age when it comes to prospects in junior leagues. If you happen to be in a position to definitely determine that Svechnikov is in fact older than he was thought to be, I urge you to at least consider what I’ve written here. Understand the effect that that extra bit of growth and development have on a player who is dominating teenagers. Because this situation remains murky, I’m in a tough position with regards to how to rank Svechnikov at this point. If the rumors are completely false, he probably deserves to stay at second overall. However, if the rumors are true, he probably deserves to be in the five-to-seven region. At the top of the draft, a handful of spots is a pretty huge swing in potential value. As a result of the uncertainty, he’s just going to have to go somewhere in between. Given how close Zadina is already, it’s a no-brainer to bump him up to second. I’m not sure I’d feel comfortable moving Tkachuk ahead of him at this juncture (I tend to think Tkachuk’s a bit overrated already to be honest), but I’d be inclined to move defenceman Quinn Hughes, who’s tearing up the NCAA and is clearly the second best defenceman in the draft (sorry Adam Boqvist), ahead of the big Russian winger. I think for now, fourth is as low as I’d go with Svechnikov. If we can get any definitive confirmation before the draft rolls around, then we can rank these players with much more certainty. Until then, we’ll do the best we can with what we’ve got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dura_mater Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 12 hours ago, Sugar baby watermelon said: anyone catch the article on Svechnikov and the rumors he may be older than what everyone actually thinks he is.... it's worth a read but at this point only speculation https://canucksarmy.com/2018/03/16/andrei-svechnikov-and-the-pivotal-importance-of-precise-age/ You beat me to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JeremyCuddles Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Lets hope these rumors stay floating around until after we draft him 5th overall, assuming we don't win 1st overall, then right after the draft they confirm he is indeed 17/18. Although from the sounds of it, GMs inside the top 10 aren't willing to risk drafting someone a year or two older than 18 in the top 10 in the case of Grigorenko. Has anyone ever been found to have actually been older than they claimed to be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
appleboy Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Bouchard or Tkachuk. I want more meat and potatoes type of players. Guys who are willing and able to get into the trenches. If we win first overall then that's a no brainer. I think we have the skill coming. Pettersson, Dahlen , Lind. Boeser as we have seen is a pure goal scorer. The two players I have mentioned add skill ,grit and hockey sense. I see Bouchard as a D man who has unlimited upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noble 6 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noble 6 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aGENT Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 8 hours ago, Canuck Surfer said: You should trade Edler. He's UFA a year earlier than Tanev 3 or 4 years older. And we have more prospect depth at left D. Including Juolevi who is at least ''close?'' And do it next deadline, when we get most value. Edler also has an NTC, seemingly no desire to waive and lower trade value if either of those problems were to be solved. Also our depth at left D isn't presently of the 23+ minute variety. I'd not be remotely shocked to see him extended honestly. But if not, both should be moved at some point in the next couple years. This isn't an Edler vs Tanev situation. 4 hours ago, shiznak said: Lol wut? So, exactly how does keeping a player two years older "fit" our timeline? Ideally you would want prospects or high draft picks coming our way, but if Nashville offers Ellis for Tanev straight up. I think you'd be insane not to take that deal. Who says I want to keep Tanev? Imo, you move him for a good, early 20's D prospect and a 1st. Not another guy who will also be exiting his prime by the time we're a contender again. Besides, Nashville is about the last team to need Tanev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeyman109 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 8 hours ago, N7Nucks said: You can nitpick everyone and to have less than stellar defensive plays. Even golden boy the walking crutch Tanev has moments where he blows it defensively. Lol. Anyone can nit pick any statement made on this site. I believe until we make some severe changes on the back end the losing will continue. if we put Demko behind this group he will fail as have Markstrom and Nilsson. We have a bunch of D men in the system that are basically 5-8 D Trying to re tread other teams throwaways is not working in Edmonton and its not working here. We need to draft probably 2 D men this year in the deep draft year for D and then look at what is available next year. I have been having debates on who we pick as a D with a number of people here but in respect to them they recognize we need D. All the MDZ or Pouliot pick ups off the waiver wire or signings of depth guys on other teams does not generate a 1-2 D man here in Vancouver. Its time to rebuild the D so many focused on the forward group being re built but we have prospects coming that will need good Defense men to move to puck to the forwards, join the rush where it is intelligent and clear the crease at our own end. No disrespect to those that post, just seems clear to me what we need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, mikeyman109 said: Anyone can nit pick any statement made on this site. I believe until we make some severe changes on the back end the losing will continue. if we put Demko behind this group he will fail as have Markstrom and Nilsson. We have a bunch of D men in the system that are basically 5-8 D Trying to re tread other teams throwaways is not working in Edmonton and its not working here. We need to draft probably 2 D men this year in the deep draft year for D and then look at what is available next year. I have been having debates on who we pick as a D with a number of people here but in respect to them they recognize we need D. All the MDZ or Pouliot pick ups off the waiver wire or signings of depth guys on other teams does not generate a 1-2 D man here in Vancouver. Its time to rebuild the D so many focused on the forward group being re built but we have prospects coming that will need good Defense men to move to puck to the forwards, join the rush where it is intelligent and clear the crease at our own end. No disrespect to those that post, just seems clear to me what we need Could we trade one of our top forwards for a top (young) D? Kind of how Columbus got Seth Jones? No one really wants to trade Bo (I even think it’s sinful to suggest) but if we could get a young number one dman in return do we consider it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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