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2018 NHL Entry Draft


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25 minutes ago, Alflives said:

I think we get to choose between Boqvist, Bouchard, and Dobson.

Dahlin

Svechnikov

Tkachuk

Walstrom

Zadina

Hughs

Then us. 

I think you're right. Forwards could be pushed up in the draft cause their trajectory is easier to judge. Boqvist is my prime candidate for dropping. Not that he should, but his concussion issues are concerning. He's also too passive in letting forwards cross the blueline, and teams might not like that. Of those 3, I take Bouchard.

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44 minutes ago, NaveJoseph said:

I think there's a pretty good chance he falls to us, especially if Wahlstrom gets drafted top 6, as I think he will. Kotkaniemi could get drafted higher than expected too. It's starting to look like Hughes will be the first D taken after Dahlin.

this is because a few pages back, some user who claims he is close to Holland who said that they really really like Bouchard.

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Does anyone feel that this years draft there is way less consensus from 4-9? During mid-season it seemed like it was either Boqvist or Bouchard. Now it feels like it's a five or six horse race with anyone of Tkachuk, Hughes, Dobson, Bouchard, Wahlstrom and Kotkaniemi being available at 7. I don't recall there being so much discord in previous drafts.

 

I also wonder how teams value defenseman vs wingers vs centers? What I mean by this is do you apply a mathematical value to the player based on projected ceiling outcome plus your own internal value of worth? If I was GM I would probably rank by doing something like this:

 

Here's my example:

I would rate a #1 pairing defenseman as most important with a value of 100 (Most of my values are based on what I think I could fetch or acquire via trade)

A #1 center would be second with a value of 85

A #1 Winger would be valued at 70

A #2 pairing defenseman valued at 60

A #2 center valued at 60

A #2 Winger valued at 40

 

Then we take the probability that we think that player will reach his ceiling and multiply it by the value to reach our final value. (Please note that these are my own values and I didn't really put too much thought into this)

Tkachuk 70% chance of reaching 1st line winger

Bouchard 80% chance of 1st pairing D-man

Dobson 80% chance of 1st pairing D-man

Hughes 70% chance of 1st pairing D-man

Boqvist 70% chance of 1st pairing D-man and so forth

 

Final value:

Tkachuk 49

Bouchard 80

Dobson 80

Hughes 70

Boqvist 70

 

This is a pretty simplistic view and you obviously have to take into account expected floor as well but I think that's also why D-men need to for sure go higher than wingers.

 

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2 hours ago, MoneypuckOverlord said:

this is because a few pages back, some user who claims he is close to Holland who said that they really really like Bouchard.

For what it's worth, my buddy is a die hard Wing and he's 100% convinced the wings will take Bouchard. Apparently Holland had said something referencing him being exactly what the team needs or something. But that's just what I have heard. 

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4 hours ago, MoneypuckOverlord said:

It’s too bad he’s gone by 7.  He would have been magic for us in the long run, and our offensive guys can score more goals because of him.

Interesting how everyone figures their favourite will be gone by 7.  Someone gon' be pleased...

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42 minutes ago, TGokou said:

Does anyone feel that this years draft there is way less consensus from 4-9? During mid-season it seemed like it was either Boqvist or Bouchard. Now it feels like it's a five or six horse race with anyone of Tkachuk, Hughes, Dobson, Bouchard, Wahlstrom and Kotkaniemi being available at 7. I don't recall there being so much discord in previous drafts.

 

I also wonder how teams value defenseman vs wingers vs centers? What I mean by this is do you apply a mathematical value to the player based on projected ceiling outcome plus your own internal value of worth? If I was GM I would probably rank by doing something like this:

 

Here's my example:

I would rate a #1 pairing defenseman as most important with a value of 100 (Most of my values are based on what I think I could fetch or acquire via trade)

A #1 center would be second with a value of 85

A #1 Winger would be valued at 70

A #2 pairing defenseman valued at 60

A #2 center valued at 60

A #2 Winger valued at 40

 

Then we take the probability that we think that player will reach his ceiling and multiply it by the value to reach our final value. (Please note that these are my own values and I didn't really put too much thought into this)

Tkachuk 70% chance of reaching 1st line winger

Bouchard 80% chance of 1st pairing D-man

Dobson 80% chance of 1st pairing D-man

Hughes 70% chance of 1st pairing D-man

Boqvist 70% chance of 1st pairing D-man and so forth

 

Final value:

Tkachuk 49

Bouchard 80

Dobson 80

Hughes 70

Boqvist 70

 

This is a pretty simplistic view and you obviously have to take into account expected floor as well but I think that's also why D-men need to for sure go higher than wingers.

 

Define #1 D?  Do you really think there's an 80% chance Dobson and Bouchard become a #1 D? or a 70% chance of Hughes and boqvist. that seems rather optimistic

 

 

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16 minutes ago, shayster007 said:

For what it's worth, my buddy is a die hard Wing and he's 100% convinced the wings will take Bouchard. Apparently Holland had said something referencing him being exactly what the team needs or something. But that's just what I have heard. 

It was in The Athletic's mock draft at the end of April.

 

It's paywalled but there's an excerpt here

https://news.hockeyfeed.com/nhl-news/rumor-red-wings-will-select-one-of-these-three-players-at-the-draft

 

Quote

 

The Red Wings of course aren't about to tell anyone what they plan on doing with the pick, but rumors suggest that the decision for Detroit has come down to a choice between three players, two young defensemen and a young forward. Those players are defenseman Adam Boqvist, defenseman Evan Bouchard and forward Oliver Wahlstromand at the time of this writing the two defensemen are largely believed to be the favorites. 

Detroit Red Wings insider Craig Custance believes that the Red Wings will eventually select 18 year old Evan Bouchard, although Bouchard would not be his first pick. From The Athletic:

The Red Wings really like Bouchard and they’d be getting a 6-foot-2 defenseman rated by Central Scouting as the No. 4 overall ranked North American skater. He can play big minutes in a lot of different situations and has the offensive skills to run an NHL power play. “He plays a ton,” said one Eastern Conference talent evaluator. “Dale (Hunter) loves to play his better players.” Earlier this year, Hunter compared Bouchard to Capitals defenseman John Carlson, the kind of player the Red Wings would take in a heartbeat.

 

...Although I'm not sure I completely buy it, and I wonder if it's some GM poker face bluffing going on trying to trade up/down, like JB did with Glass last year.

 

And actually, as someone who's been a little high on Dobson - the more I've dwelled on it the less him & Bouchard feel right. Like, they just don't strike me as Benning first rounder types. I think, given that top 3 is kinda set, and a C is still a bit of a longshot, he's most likely honed in on the separate tier of 4 guys - the two big rugged wingers in Tchuck n Wahlly, and the two crafty speedster D in Hughesy n Boqs.

 

Given the simple math that one of them is guaranteed to be there, I think that's our guy. Except of course if two of them are still around, but them's first world problems.

 

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6 hours ago, Alflives said:

Guddy proved he is a 25 minute per game guy in the playoffs while (healthy) with Florida.  He and Edler were an excellent top pair for us ending last season.  

Canucks.Com

I think this is well in the past - guddy just doesn't fit today's game. Now defence men need to contribute offensively so that it's not a 3v5 in the offensive zone, have good playmaking abilities, and be fast. Guddy doesn't really fit this bill. 

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5 hours ago, MoneypuckOverlord said:

this is because a few pages back, some user who claims he is close to Holland who said that they really really like Bouchard.

How close we talking here.. hehe

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2 hours ago, shayster007 said:

For what it's worth, my buddy is a die hard Wing and he's 100% convinced the wings will take Bouchard. Apparently Holland had said something referencing him being exactly what the team needs or something. But that's just what I have heard. 

I won't be shocked he has played in their back yard, and if they look at him like button does makes sense

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a lot of detroit fans on their boards think they will takes hughes if he is still there. the gm, isn't going to let their plans slip out. burke said publicly he will lie and mislead fans on what his plans are. JB, has talked about several of the top picks but i haven't heard him say anything about bouchard. last year he never said squat about pettersson. 

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14 minutes ago, smithers joe said:

a lot of detroit fans on their boards think they will takes hughes if he is still there. the gm, isn't going to let their plans slip out. burke said publicly he will lie and mislead fans on what his plans are. JB, has talked about several of the top picks but i haven't heard him say anything about bouchard. last year he never said squat about pettersson. 

For sure.   I work with a member of the holland family.   He obviously talks to Ken whenever he can, being a sports nut.  It doesn’t mean it’ll happen or anything...  but he also says the wings love Bouchard.   I mentioned it earlier as well.  

 

He also told told me the wings would expose mrazek to expansion because he has s**t work ethic and a bad attitude...  which I thought was crazy, but low and behold...  he gets exposed and then traded in season.  

 

Take it for what its worth I guess lol. 

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13 hours ago, Canuck Surfer said:

Kane Bo Brock

Roussel Sutter Eriksson

Baer Pettersson Jake/Leipsic 

Granlund Gaudette Jake/Leipsic 

 

Gagner, Goldobin, Gaunce, Motte, Archibald 

FTFY

 

Just two UFA'S and voila, nobody playing over their head and that looks to me like five, highly capable, spares only one of whom has the tiniest shred of not requiring waivers left. Never mind a guy like Dahlen pushing for a spot as well. Injuries aren't going to cover that.

 

Even assuming we can't entice Kane and only sign one UFA (Roussel or otherwise), yes that pushes a Baer or Leip in to a role slightly over their heads...we're rebuilding. Still leaves four guys fighting over 13th F spot though (some of whom are ill fitted to that role IMO). 

 

We need to move a couple bodies. 

 

And I wouldn't mind a UFA/PTO C (or ideally, trade for Jenner) to push Petterson and Gaudette as well (on top of our 'sometimes C's' Granlund, Gaunce and Gagner). You could probably include Roussel in that list as well should we nab him.  

 

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5 minutes ago, aGENT said:

FTFY

 

Just two UFA'S and voila, nobody playing over their head and that looks to me like five, highly capable, spares only one of whom has the tiniest shred of not requiring waivers left. Never mind a guy like Dahlen pushing for a spot as well. Injuries aren't going to cover that.

 

Even assuming we can't entice Kane and only sign one UFA (Roussel or otherwise), yes that pushes a Baer or Leip in to a role slightly over their heads...we're rebuilding. Still leaves four guys fighting over 13th F spot though (some of whom are ill fitted to that role IMO). 

 

We need to move a couple bodies. 

 

And I wouldn't mind a UFA/PTO C (or ideally, trade for Jenner) to push Petterson and Gaudette as well (on top of our 'sometimes C's' Granlund, Gaunce and Gagner). You could probably include Roussel in that list as well should we nab him.  

 

Utica is an option. Jake has a few games left before he is no longer eligible and can start in Utica.. Motte a single game. Goldobin 99 games. All according to Cap Friendly;

 

 https://capfriendly.com/teams/canucks

 

Just Archibald & Boucher have to go through waivers. Assuming they're signed?

 

We could add 4 or 5 UFA's, and still make it work.  Not that we will?  

 

But I'm not off page with you. I like that roster way better. Roussel, I guess its a shut down line not true 2knd line?  Green made many guys work in that role trialing quite a few players. Is not really a second line situation, so deployment considered I guess its ok...

 

And you still don't have to make trades. Jake & Goldobin don't require waivers. There remains no guarantee Gaudette will earn a spot out of camp. There will be injuries. If that line up is solidied, I agree we probably would at that time. But there will be injuries...  It will then buy you time to deal with it.  

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3 minutes ago, Canuck Surfer said:

Utica is an option. Jake has a few games left before he is no longer eligible and can start in Utica.. Motte a single game. Goldobin 99 games. All according to Cap Friendly;

I dont think capfriendly is 100% accurate. Well technically they are but waivers is based on games played OR seasons complete (which ever comes first). And since this is still considered the 2017-18 season it’s not counting this year as a completed season. After July 1st it will. 

 

Goldi will require waivers at the start of next year since it will be past his season limit. Same with virtanen. Motte still has one season left. 

 

 

 

 

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38 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

I dont think capfriendly is 100% accurate. Well technically they are but waivers is based on games played OR seasons complete (which ever comes first). And since this is still considered the 2017-18 season it’s not counting this year as a completed season. After July 1st it will. 

 

Goldi will require waivers at the start of next year since it will be past his season limit. Same with virtanen. Motte still has one season left. 

 

 

 

 

I think Goldy will be able to hold a spot on the team this year. We know Virtanen will.

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