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2018 NHL Entry Draft


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43 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

 

I'm not deny that the odds get lower, what i'm saying is that realistically players picks at 5 and 6 don't go on to be franchise players.  The drop off is after 2nd overall.   Top 5 and 6 is really pushing it.

The last 3rd overall to become a world class athlete is Toews, (12 years ago) 

The last 4th overall to become a world class athlete is Pietrangelo (10 years ago), maybe jones can reach that level. But 2 players in the last 10 years.

The last 5th overall to become a world class athlete was Price (13 years ago) maybe reilly can reach that level but again 2 players in the last 13 years.

The last 6th overall to become a world class athlete was OEL (9 years ago)

 

I could go on but I think you get the point.  That's why most drafts have that player vs player. 

McDavid & Eichel.

Mathews & Laine

Taylor & Tyler

Tavares & Hedman

Stamkos & Doughty

Ovi & Malkin

 

Not every top 2 pick becomes world class but the drop off starts at 3rd overall, but the point is if you're expecting the player at 3-6 (especially a D) to be a world class player, you better no a really good prayer because the odds are not in your favour.  

 

 

 

In the last 20 years canucks have drafted a total of 4 D in the 2nd round.   Compare that to the Blackhawks who in the last 20 years have drafted 12 D in the second round.  There's a reason we haven't found any D gems in the second round, we trade our picks away.  And add to that we never had JB as the scouting GM.  But we did find Edler in the 3rd round. Bieska in the 5th round.  JB since being the GM has found Forsling, Tryamkin, and Brisebois looks like an NHLer, again all without selecting a D in the 2nd round.  

 

 

 

I understand how drafting works, but that the point is regarding around getting a franchise D. outside the top 2 picks, the odds are extremely unlikely, which is why it's not smart to pass BPA.  

 

 

Sean monohan was pretty good at 6th overall.

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You make a very good case @ForsbergTheGreat

 

But the same case you are making (nice research btw) which suggests elite players cannot reliably be picked past 2knd overall?  Doesn't it also suggest no one after that reliably stands out as a better pick? Ergo BPA...

 

I'm pickin straws.  As I said, you make a good case.  I'm also on record as agreeing with the BPA philosophy. Assuming there is a clear tactical or physical advantage one player can be projected to have over another. Which most likely will see them as the more successful player over time.  

 

What I find amusing, a general observation not one directly associated with you, is it virtually always translates to guys suggesting the forward is the BPA. It leads to bad drafting practice. The problem is we have have avoided good D in every round looking for hero picks.  The problem is guys miss when D are in fact, the BPA.

 

We've only drafted two D in the last twenty years in the first round. 

 

Juolevi & Luc Bourdon in the first round then Byan Allen 20 years ago this year.

 

Taylor Elington, Yan Sauve, Kiril Koltsov, Denis Grot in the 2knd round.

 

No one should die guessing we might have been able to build a better defence if we invested in it more often...

 

   

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5 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

World class though?

Some might say better then oel. Point is world class players can be drafted after the first couple picks if teams scouting staffs and development staffs can identify and deveop properly. If your looking at a world class player developed that wasnt taken in the first couple picks then mark schieffle is your man.

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9 minutes ago, Canuck Surfer said:

You make a very good case @ForsbergTheGreat

 

But the same case you are making (nice research btw) which suggests elite players cannot reliably be picked past 2knd overall?  Doesn't it also suggest no one after that reliably stands out as a better pick? Ergo BPA...

 

I'm pickin straws.  As I said, you make a good case.  I'm also on record as agreeing with the BPA philosophy. Assuming there is a clear tactical or physical advantage one player can be projected to have over another. Which most likely will see them as the more successful player over time.  

 

What I find amusing, a general observation not one directly associated with you, is it virtually always translates to guys suggesting the forward is the BPA. It leads to bad drafting practice. The problem is we have have avoided good D in every round looking for hero picks.  The problem is guys miss when D are in fact, the BPA.

I think that typically happens because team needs always seems to be D

 

9 minutes ago, Canuck Surfer said:

We've only drafted two D in the last twenty years in the first round. 

 

Juolevi & Luc Bourdon in the first round then Byan Allen 20 years ago this year.

 

Taylor Elington, Yan Sauve, Kiril Koltsov, Denis Grot in the 2knd round.

 

No one should die guessing we might have been able to build a better defence if we invested in it more often...

Yep this team has not really put any sort of effort on D in the draft.  Even last year, we had 4 picks in the first 3 rounds and ignored D.  Don't get me wrong I like our picks, but you can't expect to land a D if you don't draft any. I was really hoping for Ferraro

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5 minutes ago, Isam said:

Some might say better then oel. Point is world class players can be drafted after the first couple picks if teams scouting staffs and development staffs can identify and deveop properly. If your looking at a world class player developed that wasnt taken in the first couple picks then mark schieffle is your man.

I don't think anyones argued that, the point that "has" been argued is that finding a world class player even in the 3-6 picks is still unlikely.  

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2 minutes ago, Isam said:

Is a a guy like werenski not world class? There are other examples but saying that you need a top two pick constantly just to get a world class player is wrong.  Yes percentages go down, but it is not entirely impossible.

I think you need to re-read the discussion. 

First off all I never said you can't find a world class player, i said it's highly unlikely.  History show that's

Second of all the discussion was based on picks 3-6,  So you cherry picking a 7th overall and a 8th overall does nothing to this discussion. 

 

If you want to include 7th overalls

You have Scheifele and Provorov (potentially) and maybe Keller eventually as world class players in the last 20 years. 

If you want to include 8th overalls you have Werenski and Ristolainen as the world class players in the last 20 years.  

 

The math shows, the odds are not favourable. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

I think you need to re-read the discussion. 

First off all I never said you can't find a world class player, i said it's highly unlikely.  History show that's

Second of all the discussion was based on picks 3-6,  So you cherry picking a 7th overall and a 8th overall does nothing to this discussion. 

 

If you want to include 7th overalls

You have Scheifele and Provorov (potentially) and maybe Keller eventually as world class players in the last 20 years. 

If you want to include 8th overalls you have Werenski and Ristolainen as the world class players in the last 20 years.  

 

The math shows, the odds are not favourable. 

 

 

I actually agreed with that the odds do go down, but its not entirely doom and gloom. Thats why teams invest heavily in scouting and player development.

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i wouldnt move strether for dumba, stech is a local kid, who gives it every night, and I do not get the hype on liljgren or whatever but I would make that trade with TO, just not the MIN trade.

 

we need to hit some home runs in this draft and then sign a top d man like John Carlson, I would love to sign doughty and think with one more great draft this year the cupboards could be full enough.

 

shed hutton, guddy, ganger, sedins resign for 5 mil, vanek 2 mil

 

beartschi horvat Boeser

Sedin Sedin Virtanen

Vanek Petersson Ericksson

Dowd Sutter Granlund

 

Doughty Tanev

Edler Stetcher

Pouliot MDZ

Juolevi

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4 hours ago, Canuck Surfer said:

The problem with trading down, say from #4 or #6, is who will pay you what its worth including a 9th or 11th pick?  More likely you get a good roster player, perhaps a mid pick and 17th?

 

I suspect we might be lucky if Body Wilde or Noah Dobson were still around? And they bucked fate and developed into top pairing elite D as McAvoy did...

 

My real guess is that we could trade down no lower than 12th to still get that calibre of D with any certainty? Will 12th be available in a trade down???

Yeah, I just kind of tossed that out there... it’s  a tough one.  If you could nab a mid 1st (10-15) and a 2nd or decent prospect I’d be all over it, assuming I thought I could get a comparable D prospect. 

 

Drafting a winger isn’t the worst case scenario but I have a sinking suspicion we’d eventually need to make a trade to acquire another top D to play with Juolevi then and there’s not a lot to choose from to make that deal.

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3 hours ago, Canuck Surfer said:

What I find amusing, a general observation not one directly associated with you, is it virtually always translates to guys suggesting the forward is the BPA.

Ding, ding, ding! 

 

2 hours ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

World class though?

I'd say any consistent, legit top 6 forward/top 4 D would be considered 'world class'.

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6 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Speaking of snarky, I have no problem with Tkachuck. I simply preferred Juolevi. 

You’re simply trolling and I don’t have time for that. You know we’re were discussing elite players. You want to change the bar to simply top 6 forwards or top 4 d be my guest

 

 But as you say, chase your tail somewhere else. I got better things to do than discuss semantics. 

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1 minute ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

You’re simply trolling and I don’t have time for that. You know we’re were discussing elite players. You want to change the bar to simply top 6 forwards or top 4 d be my guest

 

 But as you say, chase your tail somewhere else. I got better things to do than discuss semantics. 

I'd happily take a Monahan on my team.

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1 hour ago, ilduce39 said:

Yeah, I just kind of tossed that out there... it’s  a tough one.  If you could nab a mid 1st (10-15) and a 2nd or decent prospect I’d be all over it, assuming I thought I could get a comparable D prospect. 

 

Drafting a winger isn’t the worst case scenario but I have a sinking suspicion we’d eventually need to make a trade to acquire another top D to play with Juolevi then and there’s not a lot to choose from to make that deal.

For the record.  I am down, encourage, salivate, wish for drafting D.  I made note in another thread, maybe somewhere in this one, that we drafted in the past 20 years;

 

> In round one just Olli Juolevi & Luc Bourdon. Then Byan Allen 20 years ago this year.

> In round two just Taylor Elington, Yan Sauve, Kiril Koltsov, Denis Grot.

 

6 Picks in 20 years in the top two rounds, 40 potential picks???

 

From video on the draft floor? It looked like Vegas was discussing trading up with JB last year. Then backed out and we made our Petterson pick.  It is a good strategy, potentially game breaking, if you are going off the board so to speak. Would Vegas have offered us the 13th and 15th pick? 6th and 34th? Vegas ultimately picked Glass who we were rumoured to be after!

 

Petterson would have been gone by 13th.  But I would have taken 6th and 34th, rolled the dice...    

 

edit, ah crap, but yeah if you believe Petterson last year was going to be what he is turning out to be...  The next D on most peoples lists was Cal Foote who went (ahead of some projections) at 14.  That is a case of BPA taking precedence & its hard to argue? The same will be the case this year it appears.  The top 5 seems to be consensus, with some variation in picks 3-5. If Zadina or Tkachuk is what is left if we draft 5th, I may think hard before trading down. If we draft 6th, I've yet to pick a fave among the next 6 or 8 guys. I would be very open to moving down.

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