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[Discussion] A great article for the budding GM


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9 hours ago, Rob_Zepp said:

"Baer" has more goals in his first two full NHL season than Daniel Sedin had playing on a much better team (scored far more goals).   
"Baer" is a former high first round pick who put up 2 points per game in CHL in draft +1 year .... something VERY few players have done over past decade and may be showing that promise and you think he is a "cast off"?!    

 

He is not a "cast off" - he is a premier offensive talent who simply took a bit longer to find this professional game and could be poised to really break out.    


Good grief.   

Hey, I like Baer too, but don't see him as an impact player.  He's 25.  He's in his prime now.  We should be trading guys like him away for second and third round picks, especially seconds.  We need more picks!  More picks = more prospects, increasing our chances to get real difference makers.  

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1 minute ago, Alflives said:

Hey, I like Baer too, but don't see him as an impact player.  He's 25.  He's in his prime now.  We should be trading guys like him away for second and third round picks, especially seconds.  We need more picks!  More picks = more prospects, increasing our chances to get real difference makers.  

Well, he is actually still 24 if you are being picky and he only has two full NHL seasons under his belt and his "prime" may well be coming over the next two to three seasons and as he is showing signs of being that higher first round talent - he would have been a brilliant second or third round pick.    Most teams get someone like Baer in the second round and they consider a massive win for their franchise.   Not you apparently.  

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10 hours ago, Rob_Zepp said:

"Baer" has more goals in his first two full NHL season than Daniel Sedin had playing on a much better team (scored far more goals).   
"Baer" is a former high first round pick who put up 2 points per game in CHL in draft +1 year .... something VERY few players have done over past decade and may be showing that promise and you think he is a "cast off"?!    

 

He is not a "cast off" - he is a premier offensive talent who simply took a bit longer to find this professional game and could be poised to really break out.    


Good grief.   

You are comparing Daniel's draft + 2 and draft + 3 seasons with Baertschi's draft + 5 and draft + 6 seasons. Daniel also had to transition from a larger ice surface to a smaller one unlike Baertschi who played junior hockey in the WHL. Daniel also only got ~12min of ice time playing on the 3rd line while Baer got ~14.5min including top 6 time playing with Horvat. Basically Daniel's first two years blow Baer's out of the water, considering age, difficulty adjusting to a smaller surface, linemates and ice time. 

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27 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Well, he is actually still 24 if you are being picky and he only has two full NHL seasons under his belt and his "prime" may well be coming over the next two to three seasons and as he is showing signs of being that higher first round talent - he would have been a brilliant second or third round pick.    Most teams get someone like Baer in the second round and they consider a massive win for their franchise.   Not you apparently.  

I would rather have a chance at drafting a Duncan Keith than trading that second for a stalled prospect like Baer.  Answer me this: why not simply sign a UFA to play Bear's role and KEEP our second?

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1 hour ago, Toews said:

You are comparing Daniel's draft + 2 and draft + 3 seasons with Baertschi's draft + 5 and draft + 6 seasons. Daniel also had to transition from a larger ice surface to a smaller one unlike Baertschi who played junior hockey in the WHL. Daniel also only got ~12min of ice time playing on the 3rd line while Baer got ~14.5min including top 6 time playing with Horvat. Basically Daniel's first two years blow Baer's out of the water, considering age, difficulty adjusting to a smaller surface, linemates and ice time. 

Yup, am comparing them for simple reason Daniel played at time when goals per game were roughly 1 higher and points much easier for the team he played on, ages were similar (season Sedin was 24 he had 18 goals and averaged nearly 16 mins a game, more than Baer).   I am NOT saying Baer is a HOF player like Sedin, just saying equating him to a "cast off" when he is far from that is an error and statistically, comparing him to one of Vancouver's all-time greats over their first two full seasons and/or even same age shows very similar production - and fact Baer did it one less ice time per game (thanks for bringing ice-time up, as at 24 Sedin had more than Baer did last year) and that fact Sedin played on a far more productive team makes Baer's production even more relevant.

 

My only point was, is and remains - he is NOT a poor return for a second round pick at all.   He is a very nice find for that.    Do I like draft picks?  Yup!   Do I think trading them is a good idea?  Nope - not often.   However, if you are going to trade a second round pick and get a Baer in return, you are doing quite well with at least that move.

 

THAT is the point I have been trying to make.   

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On 8/23/2017 at 10:57 AM, Alflives said:

Baer is not an impact player though.  He got what 35 points?  The second we gave up for him (Bartschi)  had a far better chance of becoming impactful.  Trading picks for other teams' castoffs is not smart.  We need more picks, not less.  

Would a team give us a second for Cole Cassels or Jordan Subban?  Of course not.  

1

Not true. Sven Baertschi is good value.

 

Depending on whether early or late in the round, what year, % says 20 to 30% of drafted 2knd rounders will make the NHL for nominal careers. That's 6 to 10 out 31 draft picks spend some time on your squad. 3 or 5 have long careers. 1 to 3 make a big impact, become top line impact players?

 

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2008e.html

 

In 2008, selected randomly, 12 guys played 100 games to date. Derek Stepan & Roman Josi are the only top line / top pairing D guys in the crowd. Voynov, Hamonic, Scandella & Jake Allen make up a functional starter and strong 2knd pair players. Justin Schultz is a late bloomer. Illustrating some guys can play. But only if surrounded by the right team? A couple more guys, like Jacob Markstrom, are still hanging around. Only 5 guys remotely resemble having had an impact for the team that actually drafted them.  That is 1 in 6 years?  Baer is better than the 1 in 6 year bet his pick represented. 

 

Better than the 1 in 3 odds represented if you throw in the fact that we ''wasted'' another pick on Vey. Allthough, the 107 games we achieved with Vey is more than all but 7 guys who drafted by their teams that year. In reality, its not sexy, but we achieved fair value on Vey's pick. Good value on Dorsett's. Great value on Sven! 

 

2008 was actually a good year. In 2007 only 6 players drafted in the 2knd round played 100 NHL games. Wayne Simmonds & PK Subban are very notable. But nobody else became as good as the next tier, Hamonic, Scandella, Allen or Voynov from 2008.  

 

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2007e.html

 

Baer, at 24 years old, has over 200 games and appears he will be in the NHL at least another 3 years. Maybe a full career? With 93 points he already has more points than all but 5 guys from that 2008 draft. And will probably finish behind only Josi & Stepan, maybe Justin Schultz for his career?  

 

But hell, why not, throw the 1 in 6 pick away hoping you get Derek Stepan? :frantic:

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1 minute ago, Canuck Surfer said:

Not true

 

Depending on whether early or late in the round, what year, % says 20 to 30% of drafted 2knd rounders will make the NHL for nominal careers. Thats 6 to 10 out 31 draft picks spend some time on your squad. 3 or 5 have long careers. 1 to 3 make a big impact, become top line impact players?

 

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2008e.html

 

In 2008, selected randomly, 12 guys played 100 games to date. Derek Stepan & Roman Josi are the only top line / top pairing D guys in the crowd. Voynov, Hamonic, Scandella & Jake Allen make up a functional starter and strong 2knd pair players. Justin Schultz is a late bloomer. Illustrating some guys can play. But only if surrounded by the right team? A couple more guys, like Jacob Markstrom, are still hanging around. Only 5 guys remotely resemble having an impact for the team that actually drafted them.  Thats 1 in 6 years?  Baer is better than the 1 in 6 year bet his pick represented. 

 

Better than the 1 in 3 odds represented if you throw in the fact that we ''wasted'' another pick on Vey. Allthough, the 107 games we achieved with Vey is more than all but 7 guys who drafted by their teams that year. In reality, its not sexy, but we achieved fair value on Vey's pick. Good value on Dorsett's. Great value on Sven! 

 

2008 was actually a good year. In 2007 only 6 players drafted in the 2knd round played 100 NHL games. Wayne Simmonds & PK Subban are very notable. But nobody else became as good as the next tier, Hamonic, Scandella, Allen or Voynov from 2008.  

 

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2007e.html

 

Baer, at 24 years old, has over 200 games and appears he will be in the NHL at least another 3 years. Maybe a full career? With 93 points he already has more points than all but 5 guys from that 2008 draft. And will probably finish behind only Josi & Stepan, maybe Justin Schultz for his career?  

 

But hell, why not, throw the 1 in 6 pick away hoping you get Derek Stepan? :frantic:

I understand what you're saying, but why not just get a UFA to fill Baer's role, and keep our picks?  It's not like Baer will be a difference maker on a .Cup team, right? 

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6 minutes ago, Alflives said:

I understand what you're saying, but why not just get a UFA to fill Baer's role, and keep our picks?  It's not like Baer will be a difference maker on a .Cup team, right? 

How many UFAs that were first round picks and could score like Baer has scored could you have gotten for the contract terms that Baer was obtained for?   How many would been this young (he only has two full NHL seasons now under his belt) and not yet in their prime?   UFAs are typically past their second contracts and you know full-well their potential - with Baer, he is not even at his prime yet in most likelihood.

 

Your point on value of draft picks is a good one but your argument against this one player continues to not make a lot of sense.

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Just now, Alflives said:

I understand what you're saying, but why not just get a UFA to fill Baer's role, and keep our picks?  It's not like Baer will be a difference maker on a .Cup team, right? 

Once every 10 to 15 years does a 2knd round draft pick land a pick that turns out better?

 

Guys like Baertschi, Bryan Rust,  & Jake Guentzel look perfectly good when they land with some impact players? Tanner Pearson was a solid piece for LA. Artem Anisimov in Chicago?  Sven is not dissimilar.

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8 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

How many UFAs that were first round picks and could score like Baer has scored could you have gotten for the contract terms that Baer was obtained for?   How many would been this young (he only has two full NHL seasons now under his belt) and not yet in their prime?   UFAs are typically past their second contracts and you know full-well their potential - with Baer, he is not even at his prime yet in most likelihood.

 

Your point on value of draft picks is a good one but your argument against this one player continues to not make a lot of sense.

I like Baer, but not at the expense of the draft pick.  Yakupov was the first pick overall.  UFA, no?

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16 minutes ago, Alflives said:

I like Baer, but not at the expense of the draft pick.  Yakupov was the first pick overall.  UFA, no?

....Yakupov was indeed and had shown zilch interest in developing versus Baer who showed lots.   

 

You are relentless  :lol:

 

How about this, Baer scores 25 or more goals in one of the next two seasons and/or passes 50 points in one of them and you will agree it was a good move and if his totals last year were peaked out I will put a picture of Alf as my signature.   Deal?

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1 hour ago, Alflives said:

I understand what you're saying, but why not just get a UFA to fill Baer's role, and keep our picks?  It's not like Baer will be a difference maker on a .Cup team, right? 

Why Alf hate Baer so much? Did he save a kitten you had your eye on?

 

it's going to be a tough season for Nux fans Alf but watching 'cheese will be one of the brighter spots

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1 hour ago, Alflives said:

I like Baer, but not at the expense of the draft pick.  Yakupov was the first pick overall.  UFA, no?

You really don't give up.

 

Canucks had roster space but few prospects due to the Gillis era. Acquiring guys like Granlund and Baertschi are savvy moves because the Canucks had room for young players and they didn't give up much in return to aquire roster players with potential.

 

Yakupov is 23 now and is hovering on bust at this point. You are correct that he is the type of player a rebuilding team can pick up for free and try to salvage. His value at the moment though is near zero for a reason.

 

As for being a 1st overall this is true, but he wasn't the clear cut favorite to go 1st pre-draft and the 2012 draft wasn't particularly strong. There was no Taylor vs Tyler, no generational talent. Yakupov in a lot of years would go a lot lower than 1st in a draft

 

Baertschi was a higher valued player than Yakupov when he was acquired. Canucks had roster space and they gave up a second to get a player with a lot of potential that was misused on his last team

 

I suggest reading this article. It details Baertschi's time with the flames, where it all went wrong, and why he was available in a trade

https://flamesnation.ca/2015/03/03/when-did-the-flames-go-wrong-with-sven-baertschi/

 

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2 hours ago, Salacious Crumb said:

Why Alf hate Baer so much? Did he save a kitten you had your eye on?

 

it's going to be a tough season for Nux fans Alf but watching 'cheese will be one of the brighter spots

 

1 hour ago, HockeydownUnder said:

You really don't give up.

 

Canucks had roster space but few prospects due to the Gillis era. Acquiring guys like Granlund and Baertschi are savvy moves because the Canucks had room for young players and they didn't give up much in return to aquire roster players with potential.

 

Yakupov is 23 now and is hovering on bust at this point. You are correct that he is the type of player a rebuilding team can pick up for free and try to salvage. His value at the moment though is near zero for a reason.

 

As for being a 1st overall this is true, but he wasn't the clear cut favorite to go 1st pre-draft and the 2012 draft wasn't particularly strong. There was no Taylor vs Tyler, no generational talent. Yakupov in a lot of years would go a lot lower than 1st in a draft

 

Baertschi was a higher valued player than Yakupov when he was acquired. Canucks had roster space and they gave up a second to get a player with a lot of potential that was misused on his last team

 

I suggest reading this article. It details Baertschi's time with the flames, where it all went wrong, and why he was available in a trade

https://flamesnation.ca/2015/03/03/when-did-the-flames-go-wrong-with-sven-baertschi/

 

I love Baer.  He seems like a great guy.  I'm not supporting the concept of giving up picks for 21/22 year old (stalled IMHAO) prospects.  Prospect for prospect, okay fine. Just look at JB's success in round two!  Now add a few more to that group of young guys.  

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26 minutes ago, Alflives said:

 

I love Baer.  He seems like a great guy.  I'm not supporting the concept of giving up picks for 21/22 year old (stalled IMHAO) prospects.  Prospect for prospect, okay fine. Just look at JB's success in round two!  Now add a few more to that group of young guys.  

Did you actually read the article about Baertschi?   He was an elite offensive prospect who now may be living up to those expectations and you still don't think he is worth a second round pick?   Again, and you don't seem to want to answer, how many goals need he score next season for you to admit he is worthy of a second round pick?

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27 minutes ago, Alflives said:

 

I love Baer.  He seems like a great guy.  I'm not supporting the concept of giving up picks for 21/22 year old (stalled IMHAO) prospects.  Prospect for prospect, okay fine. Just look at JB's success in round two!  Now add a few more to that group of young guys.  

? Aside from this draft that just happened Benning has only had one second round pick. It was Demko so he's 1 for 1 it seems so far

 

I can agree that Benning should hold onto his draft picks a little more than he has. It's hard to argue against what he's managed though. Bringing in Dahlin for Burrows was magic and he got another solid prospect in Goldobin.

 

I think the reason he's traded draft picks for young players is the same reason he's traded vets for young players. There was a void of young talent on the club. In a short time Bennings turned that around. I think now that there are a number of young players in the pipeline you'll see him hold his picks and likely aquire more when possible 

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5 hours ago, Salacious Crumb said:

Why Alf hate Baer so much? Did he save a kitten you had your eye on?

 

it's going to be a tough season for Nux fans Alf but watching 'cheese will be one of the brighter spots

Lol it took me a minute to figure out the cat reference. I was thinking "why would anyone get upset over a saved kitten...?"

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21 hours ago, Alflives said:

Hey, I like Baer too, but don't see him as an impact player.  He's 25.  He's in his prime now.  We should be trading guys like him away for second and third round picks, especially seconds.  We need more picks!  More picks = more prospects, increasing our chances to get real difference makers.  

He may just be entering his prime. You can`t just trade away guys if you don`t have someone to replace them with! Yes, we want and need all the picks we can get but still need to compete.

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  • -SN- changed the title to [Discussion] A great article for the budding GM

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