luckylager Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 I think the twins stick around next year and embrace their much dimished offensive roles as they graduate to 4th line minutes. I don't think we'll have 11 forwards that play hockey better than the twins next season AND I see the value in allowing guys to develop for a while in Utica before placing any expectations on them. Being rushed in did no good for Virtanen (or McCann.) The twins might even have two years left in them before they take on other roles with the Canucks, in coaching or the front office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nuxfanabroad Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 *********************Thorough, sustainable progress, vs uneven peak/crash cycles****************** I'd argue this is the trend or pattern-differentiation we have to be aware of. Teams like Edm(past decade), Col, Flo, NYI & Phil have had seasons of marked improvement, mostly on the backs of precocious youth, which then peter-out, & they may regress lower than from the point where they began climbing. 1 or 2(or more!) stars wind up overpaid from this frustratingly short, resurgent period. Contrast this with TBay, Pitt, Chi, LA(& others), who hit bottom, but then trended upwards(mostly steadily) over an extended length of years. It can't only be their obvious stars that define the difference. An important variable to factor is the cap period(post 2005), necessitating the comparison-studies are relatively recent. A recent promising team to perhaps emulate might be the Canes. Is it because their depth seems more impressive on the blueline, vs their young fwds(could help in cap context)? This even illustrates a stable market is likely not even a required ingredient! (can't call Carolina stable) Ottawa's another interesting study to me. They seem to have banked more on vets, as opposed to many rivals..although they may have an impending cap-crunch on the way. ^All of these success stories & cautionary-tales seem to underscore the importance of holding back(perhaps?) the first waves of incoming youth, so they might arrive en masse, in a coordinated, cooperative approach. It seems JB, TL & TG are well aware, & have implemented this philosophy. When we really start climbing, it'll probably be sustainable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spook007 Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, luckylager said: I think the twins stick around next year and embrace their much dimished offensive roles as they graduate to 4th line minutes. I don't think we'll have 11 forwards that play hockey better than the twins next season AND I see the value in allowing guys to develop for a while in Utica before placing any expectations on them. Being rushed in did no good for Virtanen (or McCann.) The twins might even have two years left in them before they take on other roles with the Canucks, in coaching or the front office. That is exactly the flip side of the coin... It really is the 64.000 $ question. To be or not to be.... Sedins are heading south, but are the prospects heading north quickly enough, not to be ruined by getting into the league too early a la JV and McCann. There will without a doubt be a few more prospect entering the team next year, and who will be there to support them will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaudette Celly Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 1 hour ago, NUCKER67 said: Interesting with the Sedins, they'll retire when they know they're done. I wonder what they're thinking? I can see them re-signing for $1-2 million for one more year, but I find it astonishing how quickly they've slowed down. It seems only a few years ago they were both in Top 5 NHL scoring. Now, they'll be lucky to end up with 30 points each. Their leadership is invaluable, but will they continue to need them for that moving forward? Players like Gagner, Vanek (if he stays), Dorsett, Sutter, Eriksson, Tanev, Del Zotto and even Horvat can provide leadership. Maybe it's time to cut the cord. Hello, $14 million. I love the idea of bringing in Kane. The next phase will be this spring, when Gaudette comes in and if/when Vanek and/or other vets are moved at the TDL, likely Goldobin as well. The difference between the Sedins and the rest of the team will become even more pronounced. If at least one of them doesn't even make 40 points this year, I think they'll be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckylager Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 Just now, spook007 said: That is exactly the flip side of the coin... It really is the 64.000 $ question. To be or not to be.... Sedins are heading south, but are the prospects heading north quickly enough, not to be ruined by getting into the league too early a la JV and McCann. There will without a doubt be a few more prospect entering the team next year, and who will be there to support them will be interesting. Well Eriksson and Gagner will be here, barring some miracle. I don't care how fast they skate, I'd prefer the twins over those two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipBlunt Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 43 minutes ago, skategal said: I am not a proponent of advanced analytics at all, I don't pretend to understand them to any great degree, but am trying to learn more. I was looking at the Corsica.com website last night and looking at the Canucks defense. Gudbranson is notably lower in almost every category than any of the other d players on the team. I haven't dug into the definitions of each stat to better understand why that might be but found it interesting as I've seen comments regarding his stats referenced in a couple of recent articles I've read. He's big and tough, I hope that isn't masking underlying issues with his play that we should be considering? I love watching him play, love watching him crush opposing players but before we offer him a significant long term contract we should be sure what we're signing on for. Gudbranson's defensive play is sound. I've watched every game this season, and he makes the calm, sound play out of the zone every time, and is extremely effective in getting the puck out of the zone without coughing it up to a forechecker. He's had quite a few shots on goal in the last few games, but hasn't had much luck in getting them through, but he's shooting far more than he has before. What I've noticed is that the majority of analytics articles aren't as contextual as they could be and look to conflate numbers to serve a narrative, rather than offering unbiased statistical information. Look no further than the embittered asshole bloggers at Canucks Army (Vanessa Jang excluded) to see how derisive some analytical approaches are. The way I see it, Gudbranson is a keeper. He is a smart player, who doesn't play risky. He uses his size to shield the puck and remind the opposing team that they are in hostile territory. The psychological advantage that a player like Gudbranson brings is extremely effective. He injects fear into the opposition, whilst lessening it in his teammates. Jannik Hansen mentioned that having a player like Gudbranson helps to make everyone on the ice with him play larger than they are, because they know they are safe to do so. Corsi doesn't measure confidence in a player, nor does it measure apprehensiveness in the opposition, but those factors do affect the flow and momentum of a game. I remember when Lucic played with the Kings, how he and his linemates would storm into the Canucks zone and staple both defensemen to the boards, and the third forward would scoop up the loose puck unabated, and have all kinds of time, with very little resistance, to score. Keep in mind that Gudbranson's not cruising his zone looking for a big hit, or a fight. He plays a disciplined team game. If he can make the hit without giving up his position, he'll do so. And he'll stand up for his teammates in a way that no other Canuck has. Yes Bieksa is a tough hombre, but his size made his overall physicality (and occasional pugilism) a moot point against the larger, more aggressive forwards. Gudbranson has that same fearlessness, but is much larger and arguably tougher than Bieksa, and has a decent set of wheels as well. I don't think Gudbranson should be getting 6x6 though, unless he starts generating significant enough offense to warrant it. His solid defensive play and physicality do warrant $4.5M a season though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckylager Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, Nuxfanabroad said: *********************Thorough, sustainable progress, vs uneven peak/crash cycles****************** I'd argue this is the trend or pattern-differentiation we have to be aware of. Teams like Edm(past decade), Col, Flo, NYI & Phil have had seasons of marked improvement, mostly on the backs of prodigious youth, which then peter-out, & they may regress lower than from the point where they began climbing. 1 or 2(or more!) stars wind up overpaid from this frustratingly short, resurgent period. Contrast this with TBay, Pitt, Chi, LA(& others), who hit bottom, but then trended upwards(mostly steadily) over an extended length of years. It can't only be their obvious stars that define the difference. An important variable to factor is the cap period(post 2005), necessitating the comparison-studies are relatively recent. A recent promising team to perhaps emulate might be the Canes. Is it because their depth seems more impressive on the blueline, vs their young fwds(could help in cap context)? This even illustrates a stable market is likely not even a required ingredient! (can't call Carolina stable) Ottawa's another interesting study to me. They seem to have banked more on vets, as opposed to many rivals..although they may have an impending cap-crunch on the way. ^All of these success stories & cautionary-tales seem to underscore the importance of holding back(perhaps?) the first waves of incoming youth, so they might arrive en masse, in a coordinated, cooperative approach. It seems JB, TL & TG are well aware, & have implemented this philosophy. When we really start climbing, it'll probably be sustainable. Beauty post, NFA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nuxfanabroad Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, luckylager said: Beauty post, NFA. You're starting early on that wknd-lager! :^) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spook007 Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, luckylager said: Well Eriksson and Gagner will be here, barring some miracle. I don't care how fast they skate, I'd prefer the twins over those two. No argument there... But Gagners contract is not an anchor, and we can live with him for another 2 years. Erikssons however... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nuxfanabroad Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 Y'all are being too hard on Loui E..a little faith is required here. With the right linemates(& healthy), I predict he'll hit 25/45 pace again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckylager Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Nuxfanabroad said: You're starting early on that wknd-lager! :^) Nope, just enjoyed the way you laid it out. Interesting comparisons, for sure. I agree with your thinking in that the powers that be are essentially positioning to unleash a new kind on hell on the NHL in 2019-20. 1 minute ago, spook007 said: No argument there... But Gagners contract is not an anchor, and we can live with him for another 2 years. Erikssons however... Oh, no question. I just still have a big ol soft spot for the twins and as we know, personal bias affects sound decision making... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckylager Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Nuxfanabroad said: Y'all are being too hard on Loui E..a little faith is required here. With the right linemates(& healthy), I predict he'll hit 25/45 pace again. Ok, when he returns from injury I'm gonna hold my breath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nuxfanabroad Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, luckylager said: Ok, when he returns from injury I'm gonna hold my breath If nothing else, all these Swede vets seem pretty damned dedicated. Don't see this guy as a type happy to just cash unearned cheques. He'll get his game in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-AJ- Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, luckylager said: Ok, when he returns from injury I'm gonna hold my breath Don't suffocate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckylager Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, Nuxfanabroad said: If nothing else, all these Swede vets seem pretty damned dedicated. Don't see this guy as a type happy to just cash unearned cheques. He'll get his game in order. He better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green Building Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 16 minutes ago, Nuxfanabroad said: Y'all are being too hard on Loui E..a little faith is required here. With the right linemates(& healthy), I predict he'll hit 25/45 pace again. Faith was was for last year, now it's time for Loui to put out. It's not like he's a leaking wet bag of leaves, he's a pro hockey player and should be able to figure some of this out beyond Green's deployment of him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kloubek Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 1 hour ago, zzbottom said: I still think he will sign with Vegas simply because he lives in the city. Somehow a combination of Vegas and Kane seem like like a disaster waiting to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green Building Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 Just now, kloubek said: Somehow a combination of Vegas and Kane seem like like a disaster waiting to happen. I know I'm not alone in being happy for our management team not trading for him back when all the rumours surfaced, but I sure as hell welcome him as a FA addition. For me, aside from where Tavares goes he's the most interesting FA next summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipBlunt Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 14 minutes ago, kloubek said: Somehow a combination of Vegas and Kane seem like like a disaster waiting to happen. As far as I know, Evander still lives in Vancouver during the offseason. He probably visits Vegas, but I've not heard of him taking permanent residence there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boudrias Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 51 minutes ago, PhillipBlunt said: Gudbranson's defensive play is sound. I've watched every game this season, and he makes the calm, sound play out of the zone every time, and is extremely effective in getting the puck out of the zone without coughing it up to a forechecker. He's had quite a few shots on goal in the last few games, but hasn't had much luck in getting them through, but he's shooting far more than he has before. What I've noticed is that the majority of analytics articles aren't as contextual as they could be and look to conflate numbers to serve a narrative, rather than offering unbiased statistical information. Look no further than the embittered asshole bloggers at Canucks Army (Vanessa Jang excluded) to see how derisive some analytical approaches are. The way I see it, Gudbranson is a keeper. He is a smart player, who doesn't play risky. He uses his size to shield the puck and remind the opposing team that they are in hostile territory. The psychological advantage that a player like Gudbranson brings is extremely effective. He injects fear into the opposition, whilst lessening it in his teammates. Jannik Hansen mentioned that having a player like Gudbranson helps to make everyone on the ice with him play larger than they are, because they know they are safe to do so. Corsi doesn't measure confidence in a player, nor does it measure apprehensiveness in the opposition, but those factors do affect the flow and momentum of a game. I remember when Lucic played with the Kings, how he and his linemates would storm into the Canucks zone and staple both defensemen to the boards, and the third forward would scoop up the loose puck unabated, and have all kinds of time, with very little resistance, to score. Keep in mind that Gudbranson's not cruising his zone looking for a big hit, or a fight. He plays a disciplined team game. If he can make the hit without giving up his position, he'll do so. And he'll stand up for his teammates in a way that no other Canuck has. Yes Bieksa is a tough hombre, but his size made his overall physicality (and occasional pugilism) a moot point against the larger, more aggressive forwards. Gudbranson has that same fearlessness, but is much larger and arguably tougher than Bieksa, and has a decent set of wheels as well. I don't think Gudbranson should be getting 6x6 though, unless he starts generating significant enough offense to warrant it. His solid defensive play and physicality do warrant $4.5M a season though. According to the gang on 1040 Gudbranson is playing 'sheltered' TOI! Like you I have watched most games and would argue at times Gudbranson has been dominating. No idea what his contract will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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