Will not hurt this team to miss the playoffs and draft well

[CanadianRugby]

Another high pick is exactly what this team needs.. but wait, aren't losing seasons supposed to ruin our prospects (like in Edmonton) or something?  Hasn't that been the CDC mantra since Benning was hired?  Weird that Boeser is doing so well after the last two seasons we've had. 

[bloodycanuckleheads]

3 minutes ago, MrCanuck94 said:

You're comparing two franchise caliber prospects picked 1 and 2 to Juolevi.

That's why I included the player we should have chosen (Tkachuk).

 

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Didn't know 13 points in 30 games was first line centre production.

Tell that to his coach, who currently has him centering the top-line of one of the best teams in the NHL!

 

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but remember, it isn't about who makes the show first, it's about the long-run.

For the long-run, Juolevi is starting at least 2 seasons behind these other players.  It's likely that they'll have longer careers because of that.  The average NHL career-length for defensemen is less than 6 seasons.  So, starting (at least 2 seasons) behind is actually a big deal.  And, before you say 'defensemen have longer careers than forwards' - that link shows that d-men only play a third of one season longer (on average).  And, before you say Juolevi needs more seasoning, remember that Victor Mete played the same position, on the same junior team, was chosen 95 spots later, and is currently in the NHL.

 

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I've posted about this before, but you gotta realize, although it seems Jake isn't the best pick we could've made, at least he's developing into a solid NHL player who could make an impact on our team.

When you choose 6th overall, getting a player who just makes a (minor) impact is a gigantic waste of a pick.  When you choose that high, you expect to get a game-changing star.  Someone who dominates.

 

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Benning is not inconsistent at drafting, polar opposite actually, he's drafting at least two (or potentially 2) NHL players per draft, that's extremely good drafting. Heck, he drafted 5 NHL players in his first draft.

Look at how high Benning's draft picks have been!  Getting 2 NHL'ers per draft is just average from that position.  Everyone here compares Benning to Gillis, without realizing that Benning is getting some of the best picks in each draft, whereas Gillis was getting the worst.

[bloodycanuckleheads]

10 minutes ago, coastal.view said:

i'm thinking benning is in the top 1/3 of the league when it comes to drafting

Benning has drafted #5, #5, #6 and #23, that's an average of (slightly better than) 10th overall.  10th overall is in the top-third (of each round).  So, being in the top-third just means he's drafted average.

 

Oh, is that not the context you were hoping for?

[coastal.view]

4 minutes ago, bloodycanuckleheads said:

Benning has drafted #5, #5, #6 and #23, that's an average of (slightly better than) 10th overall.  10th overall is in the top-third (of each round).  So, being in the top-third just means he's drafted average.

 

Oh, is that not the context you were hoping for?

so you simply refuse to answer the question

but deflect to something else

you are boring

[BI3KSALLENT]

35 minutes ago, bloodycanuckleheads said:

Just to point out...

 

Here are the top-6 picks from Juolevi's draft:

 

1.  Matthews - currently KILLING IT in the NHL, the #1 ranked league.

2.  Laine - currently KILLING IT in the NHL, the #1 ranked league.

3.  Dubois - currently 1st line center in the NHL, the #1 ranked league.

4.  Puljujarvi - currently playing OK in the NHL, the #1 ranked league.

5.  Juolevi - currently playing very well in the Liiga, the #5 ranked league.

6.  Tkachuk - currently KILLING IT in the NHL, the #1 ranked league.

 

Every single player is playing 4 leagues above Juolevi right now, and three of them are major stars (4 if you count Dubois, who's playing great right now).  So don't go pretending that playing well in the Czech league is somehow as good as starring in the NHL.

2001: 5th OA pick - Stanislav Chistov (missed on Mikko Koivu)

2002: 5th OA pick - Ryan Whitney (missed on Lupul, Semin) 

2003: 5th OA pick - Thomas Vanek (good pick but could have had Suter, Carter, Seabrook, Parise, Getzlaf, Burns, Kesler, Richards, Perry) 

2004: 5th OA pick -Blake Wheeler (best pick)

2005: 5th OA pick - Carey Price (best pick)

2006: 5th OA pick - Derrick Brassard (Okposo, Giroux)

2007: 5th OA pick - Karl Alzner (Voracek, Coutre, McDonagh, Shattenkirk) 

2008: 5th OA pick - Luke Schenn (Karlsson) 

2009: 5th OA pick - Brayden Schenn (OEL)

2010: 5th OA pick - Nino Niederrieiter (Skinner, Fowler, Tarasenko, Kuzy)

2011: 5th OA pick - Mika Zibanejad (Scheifele)

2012: 5th OA pick - Morgan Rielly (Forsberg, Vasilevskiy)

2013: 5th OA pick - Elias Lindholm (Monahan, Horvat, Nurse, Ristolainen, Wennberg, Mantha)

2014: 5th OA pick - Michael Dal Colle (Ehlers, Nylander, Larkin, Pastrnak) 

2015: 5th OA pick - Noah Hanifin (Provorov, Werenski, Rantanen, Barzal, Connor, Chabot, Boeser)

Just to give u a visual on how hindsight is 20/20. Way too early to be screaming the sky is falling with a guy like Juolevi, and I can only imagine this fan base if we drafted the Sedin's now. 

 

[48MPHSlapShot]

38 minutes ago, MrCanuck94 said:

Didn't know 13 points in 30 games was first line centre production.

It apparently is if you don't play for the Canucks.

 

Also, he was picked higher than Juolevi anyways, so we never had a chance to select him.

[MrCanuck94]

9 minutes ago, bloodycanuckleheads said:

That's why I included the player we should have chosen (Tkachuk).

 

Tell that to his coach, who currently has him centering the top-line of one of the best teams in the NHL!

 

For the long-run, Juolevi is starting at least 2 seasons behind these other players.  It's likely that they'll have longer careers because of that.  The average NHL career-length for defensemen is less than 6 seasons.  So, starting (at least 2 seasons) behind is actually a big deal.  And, before you say 'defensemen have longer careers than forwards' - that link shows that d-men only play a third of one season longer (on average).  And, before you say Juolevi needs more seasoning, remember that Victor Mete played the same position, on the same junior team, was chosen 95 spots later, and is currently in the NHL.

 

When you choose 6th overall, getting a player who just makes a (minor) impact is a gigantic waste of a pick.  When you choose that high, you expect to get a game-changing star.  Someone who dominates.

 

Look at how high Benning's draft picks have been!  Getting 2 NHL'ers per draft is just average from that position.  Everyone here compares Benning to Gillis, without realizing that Benning is getting some of the best picks in each draft, whereas Gillis was getting the worst.

Lmao, with that logic, Megna was a first line NHL right winger last season!

 

Yeah, don't put words in my mouth, every player develops differently, literally. If you think Mete is better than Juolevi I really don't have more to say.

 

Getting an impact player at 6 is the goal, but once again, hindsight is 20/20. I'm not comparing Benning to Gillis, I'm comparing him to every GM past and present in the league, the amount of picks he's hitting is really good.

 

[48MPHSlapShot]

Just now, MrCanuck94 said:

the amount of picks he's hitting is really good.

At the end of the day, that's what it comes down to. 

 

It's funny that in all of the criticism being thrown at Benning for Virtanen and Juolevi (both of whom are FAR from busts), there's no mention of the glut up players picked up in later rounds that are projecting to be impactful NHLers. Demko,Tryamkin (assuming he comes back), Lockwood, Gaudette, Lind, Gadjovich, etc etc etc....

[BI3KSALLENT]

4 hours ago, bloodycanuckleheads said:

Ummm, top-6 picks have roughly a 70% or better chance of becoming stars in the NHL, so whiffing 2 out of 3 isn't very good at all.

A 5th overall pick has a 62.5% chance of becoming a top-6 or top-4 D (by no means a star) 

A 6th overall pick has a 41.7% chance to be a 4th liner or worse and most likely top-9 or top-6 D 

So no not a 70% chance of getting a surefire star player

[Tinky-Winky]

I was already accepting the fact we will not make the playoffs, and like what others have said, we had a great start to the season , but with all the teams we will fight with to make the playoffs ( minus arizona ) , it be really tough and close to impossible  .....i personally hope we get a  good pick choice, and i know we wont be lucky to get #1 , but man would be nice.

 

And with possibly Seattle coming into the league ( a very good chance ) , west coast will be very interesting, and it will be nice to have that Van/Seattle rivalry, like Calg/Edmon ...a very healthy one at that 

 

With some of the vets doing decent like Vanek etc, there worth will only keep rising when it comes time to let go, and get some more youngsters or draftpicks....if vanek keeps doign what hes doing, alot of playoff teams will want him esp for his powerplay skills and it can only benefit us for when its time.

[bloodycanuckleheads]

12 minutes ago, BI3KSALLENT said:

A 5th overall pick has a 62.5% chance of becoming a top-6 or top-4 D (by no means a star) 

A 6th overall pick has a 41.7% chance to be a 4th liner or worse and most likely top-9 or top-6 D 

So no not a 70% chance of getting a surefire star player

Read what I said.  I didn't say 'the 6th overall pick', I said 'top-6 picks'.  When you add the other 5 picks like you should have done, you will see that my 70% claim is actually correct.

[Gurn]

2 minutes ago, bloodycanuckleheads said:

Read what I said.  I didn't say 'the 6th overall pick', I said 'top-6 picks'.  When you add the other 5 picks like you should have done, you will see that my 70% claim is actually correct.

You want to use the first overall's chances of making it to bring up the 6th picks average of making it?

[Alflives]

18 minutes ago, BI3KSALLENT said:

A 5th overall pick has a 62.5% chance of becoming a top-6 or top-4 D (by no means a star) 

A 6th overall pick has a 41.7% chance to be a 4th liner or worse and most likely top-9 or top-6 D 

So no not a 70% chance of getting a surefire star player

So pretty much the higher the pick the better, right?  

[Ronaldoescobar]

I think if a team drafts well they do benefit in the long run. Go Canucks!

[bloodycanuckleheads]

You guys are all saying that our first-round picks have been so wonderful, well which line-up would you rather have right now:

 

Pettersson

Juolevi

Boeser

Virtanen

McCann

 

or

 

Pettersson

Tkachuk

Boeser

Ehlers

Pastrnak

 

If you said the former, you are lying.

 

EDIT:  Oh, and before you say I'm cherry-picking - most all of those guys were the top-ranked player at the time we selected, and we chose to go with a lower-ranked player instead.  That list is the players we should have had, not some pie-in-the-sky hindsight is 20/20 type of list.

[Sedinyoureyesontheprize]

It sucks that the team is facing so many injuries at the moment. The depth that JB built is dissipating quickly. 

 

Edler is ineffective for the majority of games, easily gets beat and he is sloth-like reacting to the play.  On the other hand, Gagner has no direction on the ice.  He looks like he's just skating fast but he's doesn't end up doing much.

 

If we can stay at .500 in during this injury stretch, we might be able to compete for a playoff spot. However, thats being very optimistic.

 

 

[Canuck_In_Paradise]

4 hours ago, bloodycanuckleheads said:

Ummm, top-6 picks have roughly a 70% or better chance of becoming stars in the NHL, so whiffing 2 out of 3 isn't very good at all.

Whiffed on 2 so far isn't true... give Jake and Julolevi time, they still may surprise... + we have Brock being Brock, which basically is the same as having another top 6 pick

[Where'd Luongo?]

 

[erkayloomeh]

4 hours ago, -AJ- said:

You might want to re-evaluate the average first rounder. Virtanen is on pace to become a great checking forward with a pinch of offense. In a re-draft, those players are usually in the early 20s.

 

It's far to early to tell for Juolevi, but he's doing well in Finland's best league so far.

But how good is Finland best league?  And I would hope he's doing better than "well" at this point. 

OJ is a player I'm a little worried about. 

[PuckYa]

2 hours ago, bloodycanuckleheads said:

OK, so let's add that up...

 

Boeser:  chosen 23rd - now valued 6 = a rise of 17 spots

Pettersson:  chosen 5th - now valued 3 = a rise of 2 spots

Juolevi:  chosen 5th - now valued 10th to 12th = a fall of 5 to 7 spots

Virtanen:  chosen 6h - now valued 25th to 35th = a fall of 19 to 29 spots

 

That's a average loss almost 3 spots per selection!  That's turning all your 5th overalls into 7th and 8th overalls.

 

 

 

Gaudette 1st round not 5th round 149th. that's         + 130 spots.

Demko would be a 1st round not 2nd.                       + 15 at least?

Gadjovich would go much higher than 55th               + 30?

Lind 1st rounder not 2nd.                                           + 10?

Dipietro would go before 64th today                          + 20?

Chatfield undrafted would be at least a mid rounder + 100?

Brisbois is better than a 3rd rounder today                + 30?

 

This ^ alone is + 330 spots .. What's the average on this?