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[Mafia] Experiences With Time Travel (Meeting Hitler and Other Tales), the Art of Making Roosters out of Papier-mâché, and Pleading 'Not Guilty by Reason of Insanity' in an American Courtroom (Game Over; Mafia Win)

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Master 112

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11 hours ago, Two one one said:

Deceased Players

Zfetch - Town

Alain Vigneualt - Town

 

11 hours ago, Beluga Whale said:

w o w Zfetch more like Zsketch. He didn't even try to reason. Wow. We can't listen to a TP when they don't defend themselves. Lole. Well at least there's next time hehehe.

I love the acting in the last post here... and the HUGE letters and add a little explanation and a dash of humor and ka-pow of Oopsies... lol

 

If you cannot see Maf here then DANG!!!

 

VOTE BW

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I think the best bet is a no lynch this round guys.

 

I see a case for maf BW but I also see a case for maf J23. 

 

If BW is maf the likelyhood of his parter is:

 

J23 - is probably not his partner but if they are the scum team they almost deserve to win. If we lynch one and they flip maf we almost can't lynch the other.

DM - likely is not his partner but could sense that BW is outted and wants to get town cred for pushing a vote on him

BJ - same thing as DM likely not partner but if BJ sees the writing on the wall with BW he is an easy vote

TL - if BW is maf he makes the most logical sense to be his partner with their interactions.

Me - I know I'm town so I can't be his partner but I could see how others may think we were aligned. 

 

If J23 is maf the likelyhood of his partner is:

 

BW - Same as above. If this turns out to be the case they will go down in mafia history IMO.

BJ - This makes the most sense as a maf duo to me. Early defence of his scummy play and almost obtusely unable to recognize how scummy he was playing early last round.

DM - Could very well be, other than BW DM could be maf with everyone else

TL - Highly doubt it as I believe TL is more likely aligned with BW. 

Me - I think it should be fairly evident that J23 and I are not scum duo but I guess it would put me in the same boat as if BW and J23 were. 

 

So most likely pairs from my own perspective from most likely to least:

 

J23/BJ

BW/TL 

J23/DM

DM/BJ

DM/TL

BJ/T L

 

 

I really think that no lynch is our best option here... that will bring us to 5, so a 40% chance of lynching correctly as opposed to the 33.3% chance we have now.

 

Then whoever is left after if we do lynch correctly has a 1 in 3 chance to win the game.

 

So I guess the odds remain the same for the LYLO scenario, so maybe it would be better to lynch this round. 

 

I am going to have to go back to nightfall there and re-read cause it all happened so fast at the time. 

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13 hours ago, J-23 said:

I think BW is better option, but Z has been just as bad.

I really have a problem with this post... if I look at in context of a scum player who knew zfetch was town before nightfall this post is a clever play.

 

If J23 is scum he is voting BW in hopes that he will get lynched but sets up Z for the next lynch who is probably an easier mislynch than BW. 

 

But either way it shakes down is a win from J23's scum perspective.

 

Actually in that scenario he is probably fine it's Z being lynched and not BW. He's not on the mislynch wagon and immediately can start into going straight for BW which he does.

 

J23/BJ/DM all making up their minds early about BW is interesting. At the very minimum odds are 1 of those 3 is mafia. 

 

The thing is if BW is scum that really only leaves TL as his probable partner. Whereas J23 has BJ or DM as a likely partner with the other being a townie.

 

To me the player that would benefit most from how nightfall went down would be J23. He was up for an early lynch - he didn't get lynched... he tried to get BW lynched but still saw how z was scummy and was likely his next top suspect. If BW had have been lynched and flipped town I think we would have seen an immediate vote for zfetch.

 

As a side note: 

 

I think the only way I survive nightfall tonight is if the mafia duo is BW and TL. If the duo is J23/BJ or DM they will have to kill me for sure assuming this vote is no lynch. 

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43 minutes ago, Beluga Whale said:

Vote No Lynch

 

Absolutely the correct play.

 

48 minutes ago, Aladeen said:

I think the best bet is a no lynch this round guys.

The day isn't even over yet and you guys are trying to stifle the game by creating more dead air. If there is a extension or no lynch that basically leaves right where we are now.

 

That's suspect.

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Just now, DarthMelvin said:

 

The day isn't even over yet and you guys are trying to stifle the game by creating more dead air. If there is a extension or no lynch that basically leaves right where we are now.

 

That's suspect.

 

48 minutes ago, Aladeen said:

So I guess the odds remain the same for the LYLO scenario, so maybe it would be better to lynch this round. 

First I am not sold on the no lynch as of yet

 

Second neither BW nor I can be accused of stifling the game creating dead air since we are by far the top contributors to this game. 

 

Third what's even more suspect is being a no show in the first round then coming into the second round accusing others of trying to create dead air by thinking that a no lynch in this scenario may just give the town the best chance to win this game. 

 

Fourth to not even be open to the possibility that a no lynch may be the right play here makes me start to believe even more that BW is being set up for a mislynch. 

 

Fifth a no lynch doesn't leave us where we are now because the mafia will kill someone and that will give us less possible mislynches.

 

We have to lynch right twice in a row regardless of how we do it. On numbers we have a 1/6 shot this round then a 1/4 next round. If we no lynch we have a 1/5 chance next round and a 1/3 chance the round after. So actually me thinking more about it right now clears all the doubt in my mind of it being the right play. 

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2 minutes ago, Blue Jay 22 said:

Uh, I was calling for BW's head before it was cool.

That's true and that's why I said you're probably not on a mafia team with him. With J23 on the other hand... possible but just now I am think J23/DM combo may be the leading team in my mind. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Blue Jay 22 said:

My problem with the no lynch is that if Aladeen dies, it tells us nothing, because I don't see anyone including him in any suspect lists.

If I die it tells me J23/DM or you are the mafia team... if I live it tells me BW and TL are the mafia team. 

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The only scenario I haven't thought about is a BW/No Lynch tied vote. 

 

If BW is scum this may be the best scenario because then we have the possibility still of a town victory next round.

 

We would only have to decide between BW being innocent or scum in the first vote (pure math making it 50/50 chance)

 

then the second vote it would be 1/4 chance of hitting scum. Giving us a 1 in 8 chance of town victory. 

 

Player tied with no lynch = 1/8

No lynch = 1/10

lynch = 1/12

 

 

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48 minutes ago, DarthMelvin said:

 

The day isn't even over yet and you guys are trying to stifle the game by creating more dead air. If there is a extension or no lynch that basically leaves right where we are now.

 

That's suspect.

It doesn't stiffle anything unless the villagers themselves decide to stop posting. And I plan on continuing the discussion even if we don't lynch anyone.

 

I know the No Lynch seems counterintuitive but please try to actually understand the argument we're making for it before jumping to conclusions.

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  • Master 112 changed the title to [Mafia] Experiences With Time Travel (Meeting Hitler and Other Tales), the Art of Making Roosters out of Papier-mâché, and Pleading 'Not Guilty by Reason of Insanity' in an American Courtroom (Game Over; Mafia Win)
  • -Vintage Canuck- unpinned this topic

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