[Mafia] Experiences With Time Travel (Meeting Hitler and Other Tales), the Art of Making Roosters out of Papier-mâché, and Pleading 'Not Guilty by Reason of Insanity' in an American Courtroom (Game Over; Mafia Win)

[Beluga Whale]

A little bit of WIFOM but I don't think Aladeen would push this hard for a No Lynch if he were mafia. He's arguably the most towny player right now so his town equity would only drop if he survived the night.

[Beluga Whale]

42 minutes ago, Aladeen said:

The only scenario I haven't thought about is a BW/No Lynch tied vote. 

 

If BW is scum this may be the best scenario because then we have the possibility still of a town victory next round.

 

We would only have to decide between BW being innocent or scum in the first vote (pure math making it 50/50 chance)

 

then the second vote it would be 1/4 chance of hitting scum. Giving us a 1 in 8 chance of town victory. 

 

Player tied with no lynch = 1/8

No lynch = 1/10

lynch = 1/12

 

 

No, unless I'm missing something that wouldn't improve our odds. I don't think you can call the probability of me being scum 50/50 in that scenario.

 

We definitely have the best chance if we leave the last lynch to F3 where it's a 1/3 chance essentially.

[DarthMelvin]

38 minutes ago, Beluga Whale said:

It doesn't stiffle anything unless the villagers themselves decide to stop posting. And I plan on continuing the discussion even if we don't lynch anyone.

 

I know the No Lynch seems counterintuitive but please try to actually understand the argument we're making for it before jumping to conclusions.

The Villagers. Meaning not you?

 

If you know this, why are you even mentioning this action. You should be understanding your own choices before mentioning them. Its like you are fillering.

[Beluga Whale]

10 minutes ago, DarthMelvin said:

The Villagers. Meaning not you?

 

If you know this, why are you even mentioning this action. You should be understanding your own choices before mentioning them. Its like you are fillering.

Holy frack yes DM I mean not me. What a slip. Good catch kiddo. Obviously I'm talking about the rest of the village.

 

Seems counterintuitive. Do you know what the word seems means? 

Obviously I'm suggesting on the surface it doesn't look like a good play but when you dig deeper it makes sense. 

 

Jesus Christ I can't believe I just had to explain that.

[Aladeen]

25 minutes ago, Beluga Whale said:

No, unless I'm missing something that wouldn't improve our odds. I don't think you can call the probability of me being scum 50/50 in that scenario.

 

We definitely have the best chance if we leave the last lynch to F3 where it's a 1/3 chance essentially.

Yah you're right cause we would still have the same percentage of if you are mafia or not initially, which wasn't included in my calculations. No Lynch really is the only option so hopefully everyone who is actually town will get on board with it. 

[Beluga Whale]

DM, I don't get how you can consistently misinterpret EVERYTHING. Almost every interaction with you is infuriating because you aren't listening.

[Blue Jay 22]

Unvote vote no lynch

[DarthMelvin]

Imo anyone that wants a No lynch is scum.

 

There is no reason for it. 

 

And we lose a round for nothing and gain nothing.

 

We just see one more TP get killed. And more of what is happening now.

[J-23]

I will probably be inactive this round quite a bit.

 

Vote BW.

 

[J-23]

4 hours ago, Aladeen said:

I really have a problem with this post... if I look at in context of a scum player who knew zfetch was town before nightfall this post is a clever play.

 

If J23 is scum he is voting BW in hopes that he will get lynched but sets up Z for the next lynch who is probably an easier mislynch than BW. 

 

But either way it shakes down is a win from J23's scum perspective.

 

Actually in that scenario he is probably fine it's Z being lynched and not BW. He's not on the mislynch wagon and immediately can start into going straight for BW which he does.

 

J23/BJ/DM all making up their minds early about BW is interesting. At the very minimum odds are 1 of those 3 is mafia. 

 

The thing is if BW is scum that really only leaves TL as his probable partner. Whereas J23 has BJ or DM as a likely partner with the other being a townie.

 

To me the player that would benefit most from how nightfall went down would be J23. He was up for an early lynch - he didn't get lynched... he tried to get BW lynched but still saw how z was scummy and was likely his next top suspect. If BW had have been lynched and flipped town I think we would have seen an immediate vote for zfetch.

 

As a side note: 

 

I think the only way I survive nightfall tonight is if the mafia duo is BW and TL. If the duo is J23/BJ or DM they will have to kill me for sure assuming this vote is no lynch. 

at the end of the round I was encouraging a BW lynch...

[J-23]

@Beluga Whale Besides me, who do you think the Mafia are?

[AV.]

Is there not a DPS set up?

[DarthMelvin]

2 hours ago, Beluga Whale said:

DM, I don't get how you can consistently misinterpret EVERYTHING. Almost every interaction with you is infuriating because you aren't listening.

I would say I misinterpret what you post but I would say I see things the way I want to interpret them.  (do not dwell on this comment) LOL

 

I am not sure why you get upset when we interact. If you feel that my fos on you is not duly just then explain it to me.

 

You are not defending yourself. Just as you stated about Zfetch. But I went back through the pages and he did have to explain reason, many times.  And he did defend himself numerous times. 

 

w o w Zfetch more like Zsketch. He didn't even try to reason. Wow. We can't listen to a TP when they don't defend themselves. Lole. Well at least there's next time hehehe.

 

So most of this statement is really untrue. And at the end there, the comment makes no sense to me. Why would you salt the wound of a innocent player you had just help eliminate.  To break the tie on you no less. To me you needed to make this statement. Its one of the "Right guys!?!?!" statements. Be cause you add the word "we" in there.

 

I only suspect you as maf and am willing to vote for you. And am voting for you. for that reason. That is my right. Do I know you are Maf, No.  But I suspect you are.  

 

Fos - BW and BJ

 

BJ seems to defend you alot this game.

 

Interesting.

[DarthMelvin]

Edit: I wouldn't say I misinterpret...

[Beluga Whale]

16 minutes ago, DarthMelvin said:

I would say I misinterpret what you post but I would say I see things the way I want to interpret them.  (do not dwell on this comment) LOL

 

I am not sure why you get upset when we interact. If you feel that my fos on you is not duly just then explain it to me.

 

You are not defending yourself. Just as you stated about Zfetch. But I went back through the pages and he did have to explain reason, many times.  And he did defend himself numerous times. 

 

w o w Zfetch more like Zsketch. He didn't even try to reason. Wow. We can't listen to a TP when they don't defend themselves. Lole. Well at least there's next time hehehe.

 

So most of this statement is really untrue. And at the end there, the comment makes no sense to me. Why would you salt the wound of a innocent player you had just help eliminate.  To break the tie on you no less. To me you needed to make this statement. Its one of the "Right guys!?!?!" statements. Be cause you add the word "we" in there.

 

I only suspect you as maf and am willing to vote for you. And am voting for you. for that reason. That is my right. Do I know you are Maf, No.  But I suspect you are.  

 

Fos - BW and BJ

 

BJ seems to defend you alot this game.

 

Interesting.

Like I already said, I was making a joke about what Zfetch said. 

Read this:

 

BJ had been actually accusing of things for most of the game. You clearly have not read this thread very carefully at all.

[Beluga Whale]

35 minutes ago, J-23 said:

@Beluga Whale Besides me, who do you think the Mafia are?

I don't know yet.

[Beluga Whale]

I'm starting to think DM is town because I don't think he'd try to hamper the town's plans like this if he were mafia. 

[J-23]

19 hours ago, J-23 said:

I think BW is better option, but Z has been just as bad.

I made this comment^ and Aladeen responds with:

 

19 hours ago, Aladeen said:

Um this is the first post that makes me think J23 is Town and BW not so much.

 

[Blue Jay 22]

14 minutes ago, Beluga Whale said:

I'm starting to think DM is town because I don't think he'd try to hamper the town's plans like this if he were mafia. 

That seems like something the mafia would do? Or am I reading that wrong?

[J-23]

Thoughts on TL's game, he's a difficult player to read. What are your guys thoughts on a BW/TL pairing?