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A Theory Of Apparent Uncertainty?


Nuxfanabroad

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Been thinking about JB's(apparently) uncertain status, as the TDL nears. Thought I'd throw this possible theory out there, welcoming any additional insight from posters, which may enhance/negate this musing. Numbered, for ease of reply...

 

1- Aquas & JB agree on terms already. Re-sign, or he takes another position..whatever(?)..it's agreed upon, but what's key is they DECIDE to keep this private 'til season's end.

 

2 - With twins..maybe the ownership is as uncertain, as the fanbase seems to be. To talk low-ball offers this early, could be spun by agents as an insult. Thus, JB's up-in-the-air status might provide a convenient excuse to delay. The twins want TIME to decide, eh?..well maybe so does the other side, as well? After the pre-season letter-of-love(city of Van), why should owners rush into another contract?..supposedly only two options, right?!  Look at Fisher today, as example of the opposite extreme.(that is, delay, instead of certainty)

 

3 - Gudbranson. If he signs..that's less for the twins & any potential FA's(like Kane, or others), & team re-signings. So they publicly state they're negotiating. With JB possibly flapping in the wind(agents pov?)..this is either promptly consummated, or he's dealt early.

 

4 - Rival GM's. Prob don't know who they are dealing with, if they think JB is soon kiboshed. Maybe Van(JB, TL & owners) are fine with what we have going into next yr(with all the youth arriving)? No need to be aggressive this TDL. So rival GM's feel they're dealing with the ownership(JB's just a messenger, can't make decisions independently, it appears).

Therefore to land a Gud, Edler, or Tanev, the offer would have to be substantially impressive, & worth his while to relay to owners.

Why d*ck around with arrogant insiders like LouLamo, lowballing you, because GaryB types are his buddy? Lou won't bother if it appears JB is toothless..OR, he'll tender an appropriate offer for the needed piece like Tanev(you best pay Large, ****er)

 

Nip it in the bud(as it were) by making it appear these decisions are mostly out of JB's hands(may, or may not be truth). We need JB for his drafting proficiency, in particular. I sort of expect we'll be more active next TDL, 2019(due to contract-scenarios) than this 2018 chapter, anyways.

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3 minutes ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

Been thinking about JB's(apparently) uncertain status, as the TDL nears. Thought I'd throw this possible theory out there, welcoming any additional insight from posters, which may enhance/negate this musing. Numbered, for ease of reply...

 

1- Aquas & JB agree on terms already. Re-sign, or he takes another position..whatever(?)..it's agreed upon, but what's key is they DECIDE to keep this private 'til season's end.

 

2 - With twins..maybe the ownership is as uncertain, as the fanbase seems to be. To talk low-ball offers this early, could be spun by agents as an insult. Thus, JB's up-in-the-air status might provide a convenient excuse to delay. The twins want TIME to decide, eh?..well maybe so does the other side, as well? After the pre-season letter-of-love(city of Van), why should owners rush into another contract?..supposedly only two options, right?!  Look at Fisher today, as example of the opposite extreme.(that is, delay, instead of certainty)

 

3 - Gudbranson. If he signs..that's less for the twins & any potential FA's(like Kane, or others), & team re-signings. So they publicly state they're negotiating. With JB possibly flapping in the wind(agents pov?)..this is either promptly consummated, or he's dealt early.

 

4 - Rival GM's. Prob don't know who they are dealing with, if they think JB is soon kiboshed. Maybe Van(JB, TL & owners) are fine with what we have going into next yr(with all the youth arriving)? No need to be aggressive this TDL. So rival GM's feel they're dealing with the ownership(JB's just a messenger, can't make decisions independently, it appears).

Therefore to land a Gud, Edler, or Tanev, the offer would have to be substantially impressive, & worth his while to relay to owners.

Why d*ck around with arrogant insiders like LouLamo, lowballing you, because GaryB types are his buddy? Lou won't bother if it appears JB is toothless..OR, he'll tender an appropriate offer for the needed piece like Tanev(you best pay Large, ****er)

 

Nip it in the bud(as it were) by making it appear these decisions are mostly out of JB's hands(may, or may not be truth). We need JB for his drafting proficiency, in particular. I sort of expect we'll be more active next TDL, 2019(due to contract-scenarios) than this 2018 chapter, anyways.

You know I'm at #1. 

 

Very interesting!!! 

 

You used the words "maybe" and "thus" in #2 ... in #3, you used "if" and "possibly" ... and #4, you used "probably" and "no need" , even "therefore" ... your #1 reads much differently, with command of what your saying. #2, #3, #4 read more like justification.

 

Only standout word in #1 is "whatever" ... which is very different than the other words used.

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1 minute ago, Dr. Crossbar said:

You know I'm at #1. 

 

Very interesting!!! 

 

You used the words "maybe" and "thus" in #2 ... in #3, you used "if" and "possibly" ... and #4, you used "probably" and "no need" , even "therefore" ... your #1 reads much differently, with command of what your saying. #2, #3, #4 read more like justification.

 

Only standout word in #1 is "whatever" ... which is very different than the other words used.

DC, Not sure if you're 'pullin my chain'..but I'se tryin' ta build a case, yer honour. Y'see ah don't belive these billyun-aire types get that rich without bein' a lil' clever, y'know?!

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18 minutes ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

Been thinking about JB's(apparently) uncertain status, as the TDL nears. Thought I'd throw this possible theory out there, welcoming any additional insight from posters, which may enhance/negate this musing. Numbered, for ease of reply...

 

1- Aquas & JB agree on terms already. Re-sign, or he takes another position..whatever(?)..it's agreed upon, but what's key is they DECIDE to keep this private 'til season's end.

 

2 - With twins..maybe the ownership is as uncertain, as the fanbase seems to be. To talk low-ball offers this early, could be spun by agents as an insult. Thus, JB's up-in-the-air status might provide a convenient excuse to delay. The twins want TIME to decide, eh?..well maybe so does the other side, as well? After the pre-season letter-of-love(city of Van), why should owners rush into another contract?..supposedly only two options, right?!  Look at Fisher today, as example of the opposite extreme.(that is, delay, instead of certainty)

 

3 - Gudbranson. If he signs..that's less for the twins & any potential FA's(like Kane, or others), & team re-signings. So they publicly state they're negotiating. With JB possibly flapping in the wind(agents pov?)..this is either promptly consummated, or he's dealt early.

 

4 - Rival GM's. Prob don't know who they are dealing with, if they think JB is soon kiboshed. Maybe Van(JB, TL & owners) are fine with what we have going into next yr(with all the youth arriving)? No need to be aggressive this TDL. So rival GM's feel they're dealing with the ownership(JB's just a messenger, can't make decisions independently, it appears).

Therefore to land a Gud, Edler, or Tanev, the offer would have to be substantially impressive, & worth his while to relay to owners.

Why d*ck around with arrogant insiders like LouLamo, lowballing you, because GaryB types are his buddy? Lou won't bother if it appears JB is toothless..OR, he'll tender an appropriate offer for the needed piece like Tanev(you best pay Large, ****er)

 

Nip it in the bud(as it were) by making it appear these decisions are mostly out of JB's hands(may, or may not be truth). We need JB for his drafting proficiency, in particular. I sort of expect we'll be more active next TDL, 2019(due to contract-scenarios) than this 2018 chapter, anyways.

You my friend have nailed it, why would they announce that they have, or intend to sign JB when they can use this ambiguous state to their advantage on all those levels. 

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13 minutes ago, captaincowbasher said:

You my friend have nailed it, why would they announce that they have, or intend to sign JB when they can use this ambiguous state to their advantage on all those levels. 

Why did JB, who has been too honest at times, mention the stress his uncertain future is causing his wife and daughter, and his daughter’s getting bullied at school though?  If he was going to spin a yarn, I really don’t believe he would include his wife and daughter.  

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20 minutes ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

DC, Not sure if you're 'pullin my chain'..but I'se tryin' ta build a case, yer honour. Y'see ah don't belive these billyun-aire types get that rich without bein' a lil' clever, y'know?!

I'm not pulling your chain but ah'see whatcher sayin, nomesayin', seewhati'msayin? Lol

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uncertainty usually isn't something most business people want, but you're not saying actual uncertainly just apparent... hmm.... maybe on the fan-base side but it seems like an odd strategy to get more season tickets by looking uncertain. 

 

You've lost me at #4 tho - GMs thinking Jim is on the ropes will produce more lowball offers. If you wanted other GMs to think about giving full value then it would make more sense to leak to the media that they are settled on an extension just working on term. 

 

Unfortunately I don't think this is manufactured uncertainty, to me it smells of the real thing. 

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I don't think any GM has had a say in player movement in/out or otherwise since the Aquilini's have owned the team, GMJB's position is

to report to Linden. So all this BS, put GMJB in a tough spot, as Linden seems to not always agree with what JB has said in  public.

I for one, wish Linden would go back to biking and running his fitness clubs, because he fails miserably as a Pres., 4 yrs and counting 

for CRAP, BORING, PLAY TO NOT LOSE HOCKEY ( trap and lock )!

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The good news gents, is a few months should reveal if there's any credence to this theory.

 

If there's ANY guy they have to deal(Gud?)..best to have 2 or 3 available reasons for an unpalatable return, if necc.

With the burgeoning success of our prospect-pool, I'd argue this TDL isn't as important as we previously believed.

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50 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Why did JB, who has been too honest at times, mention the stress his uncertain future is causing his wife and daughter, and his daughter’s getting bullied at school though?  If he was going to spin a yarn, I really don’t believe he would include his wife and daughter.  

Yeah..I was thinking about this too, Alf. Makes the tale pretty rivetting, don't it? :^)

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2 minutes ago, chilliwiggins said:

I think Benning is kind of boxed in the corner with Gudbranson cause if hes traded he isn't going to land a huge return, and considering the price paid originally and Bennings contract status , it wont help his own cause. IMO

The Sedins were never going to leave before their contract ended and have always wanted to remain a Canuck so Lindens remarks makes total sense.   I think Bennings panicking a bit.

I do wonder if some things are being discussed above Benning, that would normally be his to discuss

Possible.

 

Confession time: I haven't listened to the interviews with the politician or the Pres of Toastmasters(JB!)..promised myself I'd stop listening to that tripe, & finally discovered a promise I could keep! :^)

 

Sometimes less IS more. Too many trubs (currently) on this crazy globe, for me to commit the head/heart/gut to this Van-city drama. It'll get sorted..lame/decent return on Gud, notwithstanding...

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1 hour ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

1- Aquas & JB agree on terms already. Re-sign, or he takes another position..whatever(?)..it's agreed upon, but what's key is they DECIDE to keep this private 'til season's end.

 

Hmmmm, well having listened to the Trader Jim interview two days ago, I would say that this is highly unlikely.  

 

In fact, I will just go ahead and say that it's not true.  

 

Jim was very candid in his interview and spoke about the uncertainty being fine with him but being harder on his wife and kids.  

 

If I'm wrong, then Jim needs to get into acting pronto as he's a future Oscar winner. 

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45 minutes ago, chilliwiggins said:

I think Benning is kind of boxed in the corner with Gudbranson cause if hes traded he isn't going to land a huge return, and considering the price paid originally and Bennings contract status , it wont help his own cause. IMO

The Sedins were never going to leave before their contract ended and have always wanted to remain a Canuck so Lindens remarks makes total sense.   I think Bennings panicking a bit.

I do wonder if some things are being discussed above Benning, that would normally be his to discuss

There is alot of talk on whether they will sign Jim Benning or not.

And it's apparent from his interview that he would like to get something done. Like Alf said he's left dangling right now. 

So if they are not resigning him it's a moot point, but if they are resigning him but just taking there sweet old time then if I'm Jim I go home from work one day and say "honey we are moving on" . Next year we will be in a different city.

Treat the man with respect and now that you know from his interview where he is at Trevor , , put the effort in to get it done (nevermind the distraction)

Or you might be the one left dangling. 

If they don't sign him they better have a damn good plan because I see this fan base getting pretty antsy about the direction of the team. 

We don't need that. It's already been a tough few years for us canucklehead.

Like I said if I'm Jim and they haven't gotten serious with me in the next two weeks I make the decision to leave and keep it between me and the wife

Get your arse in gear linden 

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Wishful thinking.

 

As is the idea that uncertainty surrounding Benning somehow enhances their leverage at the trade deadline.

 

Counter-intuitive and not very well thought out.

 

Benning in the balance actually indicates to other franchises that Gudbranson is more likely to wind up going to free agency.

 

Benning re-signed - indicates more likelihood that Gudbranson is re-signed, and if other teams want to seize the opportunity to acquire him, the time is now, and the offer needs to be irrefusable.   Benning acquired Gud - and little doubt about it - would prefer to retain him.

 

 

If you want to try to 'read between the lines', I think it's more plausible that ownership could be the ones dragging their feet - on both of them - Benning and Gudbranson, as somewhat of a package deal.

 

A theory of Rowe V.2.0.

Canucksmarmy dreaming of a repeat of the successful coup of Tallon and Gallant (but hard fail in their own results, with an ill-advised attempt to 'fix' what wasn't broken) - are now at the ear of Aquilini cautioning about how bad a GM Benning is, how the analyticzzz don't fluff Gudbranson, etc, etc, yada yada, drama, and doomsday.

 

On the other hand, Linden - reminding ownership that the team Tallon built was significantly better than the 'analytically'improved' failure that succeeded the coup.  And that the CanucksArmy campaigns against Luca Sbisa - their favorite whipping-boy - have also blown up in their face, as he was not only selected in the expansion draft, but went on to command a top pairing role on one of the NHL's best teams.....V2.0 all over again with Gudbranson, and every bit as much failArmy.  If that's not enough, the coach that was jettisoned unceremoniously in the Rowe coup, now happens to be the hands-down favorite for coach of the year, leading an expansion team (with Luca in a prominent role) to top spot in the Western conference post all-star break.....

 

I think the may even be less far-fetched than the idea the team is playing possum surrounding Benning.  I don't think that can be taken seriously for a minute.

 

Now - what might be the most realistic possibility?

 

That the team is doing what NHL teams do - their due dilligence.  

Here's my crazy prediction:

The franchise doesn't consider any of the available GM options to be realistic candidates worth ousting Benning in favour of.  This is not to say you don't think of / debate the merits of a guy like Paul Fenton, but imo, Benning's overall performance has commanded an extension.  No GM can operate without making 'mistakes' - or at least what are deemed mistake in hindsight - but Benning, for the most part, has had an impressive success rate - in trades, in signings, and most importantly, in drafting.  The counterpoint is to cherry-pick an Eriksson, prematurely undersell a Virtanen, or whine about every unutiilized pick/Linden Vey demographic shift.  No one with a realistic perspective of GMs around the league can look and dwell on the lesser results and pretend those aren't matched by every good GM around the league.

 

Moreover, Benning has built considerable support in this fanbase - evidenced in a couple samples of this forum where he tops 90% approval to be re-signed, among the most active and engaged people in this fanbase.  Those are fairly remarkable numbers considering all the bad press he received attempting to undermine him pretty much from the get-go, and the bad luck Benning has faced in his tenure (wouldn't be a Canuck if he had good luck)  - including insane injury problems years running, repeat lottery shafts, losses of key grit players to the expansion draft, the KHL, and injury-retirement.......and yet Benning is shining in the perspective of the vast majority of the fan base - in spite of the outspoken and seriously misrepresentative prattle jockeys in the media.  His prospect pool speaks pretty loudly to a city that has rarely seen that depth of future talent - and that is despite some less than ideal transition conditions to work with.

 

Benning is re-signed - at least he should be - and the sooner the better (there isn't much point protracting it) - and Gudbranson is re-signed shortly thereafter.  Wishful thinking?  If that is the order of the day, there is mine.  Waiting to the offseason would contradict the franchise's stated m.o. of rewarding players and coaches and managers within who earn their salt.

 

Benning continues the process - that has been remarkably consistent through his tenure thus far.

He sells an asset or two if possible at the deadline - but regardless, he does what he does - adding more Boesers, Petterssons, Demkos, Tryamkins, Gaudettes, Juolevis, Virtanens, Linds, Lockwoods, Gadjovichs to the prospect pool...

 

And let's not forget what Benning's team has done with the on-ice product.  His team overachieved his first year here, hit some (perhaps 'good luck' M.A.S.H. seasons in the midst of their transition) - but most importantly, is emerging on the other side of it with a team that plays the game the right way - is entertaining - and has one of the best young coaches in the game behind their bench, promoted through this system - and who might be a Jack Adams candidate himself were he not piecing lineups together with no top 6 centers, and missing top 4 blueliners through large stints of this season.  Green's systems are a pleasure to watch - even with depleted lineups - and he's getting about as much as anyone could dream out of what he has to work with.  Imo, Benning has managed something similar in some fairly limiting conditions.

 

 

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42 minutes ago, erkayloomeh said:

There is alot of talk on whether they will sign Jim Benning or not.

And it's apparent from his interview that he would like to get something done. Like Alf said he's left dangling right now. 

So if they are not resigning him it's a moot point, but if they are resigning him but just taking there sweet old time then if I'm Jim I go home from work one day and say "honey we are moving on" . Next year we will be in a different city.

Treat the man with respect and now that you know from his interview where he is at Trevor , , put the effort in to get it done (nevermind the distraction)

Or you might be the one left dangling. 

If they don't sign him they better have a damn good plan because I see this fan base getting pretty antsy about the direction of the team. 

We don't need that. It's already been a tough few years for us canucklehead.

Like I said if I'm Jim and they haven't gotten serious with me in the next two weeks I make the decision to leave and keep it between me and the wife

Get your arse in gear linden 

bullseye.

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Currently he is a lame duck gm. He cannot speak from a position of strength what the teams goals are, what the roster will look like going forward etc etc.

 

How can you negotiate with a gudbranson or the sedins or even a tryamkin if you don't have the presidents or owners blessing.

 

They need to sign him or fire him simple as that. The conspiracy theory is just that.

 

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That's not how this stuff works (postponing a GM's contract for no good reason).  The negatives far outweigh any advantage this would give us.

 

The much more likely theory is that ownership has decided that they're done with Benning and we're getting a new GM in the summer (otherwise they would have offered him a contract long before now).

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