Jump to content
The Official Site of the Vancouver Canucks
Canucks Community

Drafting D-Men - A statistical analysis


TGokou

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, on the cycle said:

Interesting that the percentage chance between the 2nd and 3rd round is almost the same. It seems to be a better idea to stock up on 2nd and 3rd round picks than going after 1st round picks.

Except top 10 first round picks are the best.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Rush17 said:

So 33% of d men in the first round or was it the top 15 become 1st pairing guys?  Based on average do we know how many per year would eventually fit that mold?  I'm trying to get an idea the 2016 draft where we took juolevi based on averages.

 

juolevi and sergcahev both look like they could have 1st pairing roles in a few years.  Was it 33% of the top 15 or all 30 during that era?

 

#5 Olli Juolevi (TPS Finland)

#9 Mickael Sergachev (NHL TBL)

#13 Jake Bean (CHL)

#14 Charlie McAvoy (NHL BOS) (1st pairing)

 

Are all top 15 D. Followed by

 

#16 Jakob Chychrun (NHL ARZ)

#17 Dante Fabbro

#18 Logan Stanley

 

#20 Dennis Cholowski

#28 Lucas Johansen

 

Please fill in the rest of u can.  Just on phone lol.

To answer your question for the 1st round the chance of getting a 1st pairing dman is about 16% and 33% for the top 15. So the correlation doubles if you select in the top half of the 1st round. Some years there are multiple #1 D in the top 15 and other years there are none but that is the general average. Interestingly in the 2012 draft where D men were selected with greater frequency and was presumed to be a D heavy draft...most didn't pan out the way their teams were hoping.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, on the cycle said:

Interesting that the percentage chance between the 2nd and 3rd round is almost the same. It seems to be a better idea to stock up on 2nd and 3rd round picks than going after 1st round picks.

Especially with Benning drafting even 5th rounders are good. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, TGokou said:

**Update**

 

I decided I got a little bit more curious about the chances of drafting a #1 star D man. While I won't go into too many details here as it was only based on anecdotal evidence I noticed a really high correlation when drafting a LATE birthday D-man and getting your star D-man. I had to go a little further back in my analysis to get this information

 

Duncan Keith 2nd round July Bday

Shea Weber 2nd round August Bday

Dustin Byfuglien 8th round March Bday

Alex Edler 3rd round April Bday(While I doubt anyone would say he's a star defenseman he was pretty good for a while, and I threw him in here because he's Canucks property)

PK Subban 2nd round May Bday

Roman Josi 2nd round June Bday

Shayne Gostisbehere 3rd round April Bday

Erik Karlsson 1st round May Bday

Oliver-Ekman Larsson 1st round July Bday

 

So basically all the super-star D-men drafted in the 2nd round and later are ALL late birthdays. There is also a lot of players I cut off this list that I would consider really good players who were also late birthdays. Therefore in my original post where the chance of drafting a super-star D (or even a #1 D for that matter) of only being 4% can be greatly increased by ONLY drafting late birthday D-men in the second round onwards. In fact I would argue anecdotally there is a greater than 50% correlation of drafting really good D by selecting late birthday D-men...therefore increasing your odds from 4% to about 10%.

 

Most of these D-men I put here are 2nd round or later but assuming this applies to 1st round talent as well I would argue that Adam Boqvist definitely has #1 star potential based solely on his late b-day. Also based on Evan Bouchard's early birthday I would pass.

 

 

 

His underlying numbers in his d -1 year were very good. So far, he's prving he is no fluke.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, TGokou said:

To answer your question for the 1st round the chance of getting a 1st pairing dman is about 16% and 33% for the top 15. So the correlation doubles if you select in the top half of the 1st round. Some years there are multiple #1 D in the top 15 and other years there are none but that is the general average. Interestingly in the 2012 draft where D men were selected with greater frequency and was presumed to be a D heavy draft...most didn't pan out the way their teams were hoping.

Based on all that.  How many 1st pairing guys might come from 2016. ^^

 

If I were to guess.  I'm thinking 3 with juolevi, McAvoy, and Sergachev.  Too me Chychrun is a top 4 d man. Bean likely as well

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Alflives said:

So to make this OP simple, for furry - not too bright aliens, it’s A LOT better to draft as high as possible, because (over time) your chances of getting top 4 d, and top six forwards is way better than draft lower.  Roll out the:

 

 

8EF6C519-3FAE-4728-98FD-9C47E5878A0A.png

Yeah, but not entirely impossible. People also got to factor in player development into the equation too along with doing the scouting and due diligence homework on the player. By the way, is that a T34 tank?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, Isam said:

Yeah, but not entirely impossible. People also got to factor in player development into the equation too along with doing the scouting and due diligence homework on the player. By the way, is that a T34 tank?

I don’t know the type of tank this is, I think my mother-in-law once drove one during her bearded days.  :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

This upcoming draft class looks strong on the blueline, I wouldn't be surprised if 3 or 4 of those D-men picked in the top-15 end up being stars.  Lets hope we snag one.

Exactly. Yet people want to give up this pick plus plus plus for EK. We have a very high second pick as well. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, on the cycle said:

I am leaning towards drafting Boqvist if we don't pick 1st overall. Scouts say he is of an Erik Karlsson mould, where as Dahlin is a cross of Karlsson and Hedman. Definitely a win to get either as we don't have an offensive defenceman with that kind of upside.

I would rather they draft  Wilde or Bouchard, if they cant get Dahlin.

 

9. Bode Wilde, D, 6-foot-2, 197 pounds (USNTDP): Big, strong, can move his feet and competes hard. Stands guys up in the neutral and defensive zone and hits hard. Moves pucks quickly to the best option. Has a bomb of a shot.

10. Evan Bouchard, D, 6-foot-2, 193 pounds (London Knights, OHL): A smart player who never panics and has a cannon from the point. With his London Knights in rebuild mode it will be challenging for Bouchard to stand out on a weaker squad, but make no mistake, he is legit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, TGokou said:

**Update**

 

I decided I got a little bit more curious about the chances of drafting a #1 star D man. While I won't go into too many details here as it was only based on anecdotal evidence I noticed a really high correlation when drafting a LATE birthday D-man and getting your star D-man. I had to go a little further back in my analysis to get this information

 

Duncan Keith 2nd round July Bday

Shea Weber 2nd round August Bday

Dustin Byfuglien 8th round March Bday

Alex Edler 3rd round April Bday(While I doubt anyone would say he's a star defenseman he was pretty good for a while, and I threw him in here because he's Canucks property)

PK Subban 2nd round May Bday

Roman Josi 2nd round June Bday

Shayne Gostisbehere 3rd round April Bday

Erik Karlsson 1st round May Bday

Oliver-Ekman Larsson 1st round July Bday

 

So basically all the super-star D-men drafted in the 2nd round and later are ALL late birthdays. There is also a lot of players I cut off this list that I would consider really good players who were also late birthdays. Therefore in my original post where the chance of drafting a super-star D (or even a #1 D for that matter) of only being 4% can be greatly increased by ONLY drafting late birthday D-men in the second round onwards. In fact I would argue anecdotally there is a greater than 50% correlation of drafting really good D by selecting late birthday D-men...therefore increasing your odds from 4% to about 10%.

 

Most of these D-men I put here are 2nd round or later but assuming this applies to 1st round talent as well I would argue that Adam Boqvist definitely has #1 star potential based solely on his late b-day. Also based on Evan Bouchard's early birthday I would pass.

 

 

 

Ok so I've now applied this theory to the top 15 of the 1st round. Based on what was previously said you have about a 33% chance of drafting a top pairing D-man. If you eliminate all birthdays prior to March, and using only late birthdays, your chance of drafting a #1 D-man (and in most cases star D-men) jumps to about 43%. If factoring in only D-men born May or later, it's about 40% so not really statistically significant compared to march.  I didn't factor in drafts past 2012 but if I did, the #1 D-man rate actually jumps to 50%!! Therefore at this point predict Juolevi to have about a 40% chance of becoming a 1st pairing D-man.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Rush17 said:

juolevi and sergcahev both look like they could have 1st pairing roles in a few years.

Juolevi is playing in a 5th tier league right now (Liiga) - where he just recently got healthy-scratched multiple times (and when he came back, he was on the bottom-pairing).  And, that's a leaugue filled with AHL rejects.  The chances that he becomes a 1st pairing NHL d-man are not very high at the moment.  He's looking nowhere near as good as Sergachev right now, he's looking more like another Virtanen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, bloodycanuckleheads said:

Juolevi is playing in a 5th tier league right now (Liiga) - where he just recently got healthy-scratched multiple times (and when he came back, he was on the bottom-pairing).  And, that's a leaugue filled with AHL rejects.  The chances that he becomes a 1st pairing NHL d-man are not very high at the moment.  He's looking nowhere near as good as Sergachev right now, he's looking more like another Virtanen.

So the top league in Finland is a league filled with ahl rejects and is a 5th tier? Lol

 

Id say Liiga is 4th behind the nhl, khl and the sel

 It's a pro league that has produced a lot of good dmen, salo, timonen, pitkanen, etc. And a lot of elite players like Selanne Kurri Laine etc

 

He's Finnish, that's why he's playing there 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, TGokou said:

The percentage of D-men drafted in the top half of the 1st round went on to become 1st pairing D-men and that number was at about 33% with no extra correlation even if you drafted in the top 4. While my bias is towards drafting a D-man in the 1st round this year, the smart thing to do in my opinion is to draft a forward or find a way to trade down to get 2 1st rounders in the top 15. On the other hand, only having a 4% chance of drafting a 1st pairing D-man in 2nd or 3rd round is ultimately a matter of luck and you may have to go 10 drafts before you ever draft one, assuming you only draft D-men in 2nd and 3rd round. Therefore, sometimes you do have to ultimately take a chance and draft a D-man high to have a decent chance of scoring yourself a #1 D...but ultimately it is a game of numbers.

 

*EDIT: I added some additional stats in a post further down the page*

Great post, thanks.  I just responded to this part because I'm hoping we are in a position to trade our first pick (5?) , to around 13-16, draft whom we perceive to be the best defenseman left, and add another pick in the process ( maybe from a team that already has loaded up).  Like your analysis shows it doesn't affect the odds of us landing a good defenseman, or an elite one for the matter, might as well add picks (like our third for Pouliot).  

 

I also think we should consider drafting three ds in a row, unless something undervalued is up for grabs like Lind last year.

 

Edit: If for some reason a stud lands on our lap and we are picking around five again, that we pick the MT instead, we can always trade for a reliable d with someone like that or throw him in right away to see if he sinks or swims. ie no passing on sure things no matter the organizational need.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...