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Drafting D-Men - A statistical analysis


TGokou

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10 minutes ago, 10pavelbure96 said:

So the top league in Finland is a league filled with ahl rejects and is a 5th tier? Lol

 

Id say Liiga is 4th behind the nhl, khl and the sel

 It's a pro league that has produced a lot of good dmen, salo, timonen, pitkanen, etc. And a lot of elite players like Selanne Kurri Laine etc

 

He's Finnish, that's why he's playing there 

The AHL and KHL are considered the best leagues below the NHL, and debates can made for either as the second best in the world,  followed by the Swedish Elite League.  After Juolevis league and the CHL battle for bragging rights.  There actually is a site that does point comparisons right down to Major Junior's, and how it translates into NHL points, currently Pettersson is looking pretty good.

 

I'm still hoping Juolevi works out, at least he's playing against men now and your right a lot of good players have come out of there and made an impact.  We wont have a better idea about Oli until he comes over and plays some AHL/NHL games.

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45 minutes ago, 10pavelbure96 said:

So the top league in Finland is a league filled with ahl rejects and is a 5th tier? Lol

 

Id say Liiga is 4th behind the nhl, khl and the sel

The Hockey Writers agree with me.  It's 5th.  Well behind the AHL.  These agents rank it behind Switzerland.   Which would put it 6th.  Just look at how many players who weren't good enough for the A are now stars in the Liiga.

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1 hour ago, IBatch said:

Great post, thanks.  I just responded to this part because I'm hoping we are in a position to trade our first pick (5?) , to around 13-16, draft whom we perceive to be the best defenseman left, and add another pick in the process ( maybe from a team that already has loaded up).  Like your analysis shows it doesn't affect the odds of us landing a good defenseman, or an elite one for the matter, might as well add picks (like our third for Pouliot).  

 

I also think we should consider drafting three ds in a row, unless something undervalued is up for grabs like Lind last year.

 

Edit: If for some reason a stud lands on our lap and we are picking around five again, that we pick the MT instead, we can always trade for a reliable d with someone like that or throw him in right away to see if he sinks or swims. ie no passing on sure things no matter the organizational need.

Not sure if you read my other post(s) a bit further down but I added that drafting late birthday D-men (March or later) significantly increases the chance of getting yourself not only a #1 D but a superstar D. Of the D-men projected to go in the top 15, only Dahlin, Boqvist, Merkley and Woo qualify. Since Boqvist could very well be in our wheelhouse where we pick I say we pick Boqvist.  

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1 hour ago, bloodycanuckleheads said:

A top-5 NHL draft-pick shouldn't be getting healthy-scratched in any league other than the NHL 19 months after being drafted (unless he's sick, which was not the case here).  It's a very bad sign.  Especially in a lower-tier league.

Some finish posters on hf boards said OJ didnt seem like he deserved the sit based on play alone. They said he was looking pretty decent. Maybe his attitude? Maybe its easier to send a message to a rookie rather than a vet. 

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11 minutes ago, austy said:

Some finish posters on hf boards said OJ didnt seem like he deserved the sit based on play alone. They said he was looking pretty decent. Maybe his attitude? Maybe its easier to send a message to a rookie rather than a vet. 

Yah there could be many reasons why they sit someone. If the coachs say they wanted to switch it up (plus he was coming back from world juniors) then I'll take that at face value. It's not great news but it's not omg the sky is falling either.

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1 hour ago, TGokou said:

Not sure if you read my other post(s) a bit further down but I added that drafting late birthday D-men (March or later) significantly increases the chance of getting yourself not only a #1 D but a superstar D. Of the D-men projected to go in the top 15, only Dahlin, Boqvist, Merkley and Woo qualify. Since Boqvist could very well be in our wheelhouse where we pick I say we pick Boqvist.  

depending on who wants to trade and how far back we have to go i would still rather see us pics Wilde or Bouchard if we can trade and still get one of these two.I disagree with you on who in the top 15 will be a superstar.  Boqvist, Mciassac and Hughes are all smaller players and we already have Julolevi in that vein. What we need are a couple of big boys thst can skate and have big shots.  Both Wilde and Bouchard fit the bill here

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7 hours ago, TGokou said:

**Update**

 

I decided I got a little bit more curious about the chances of drafting a #1 star D man. While I won't go into too many details here as it was only based on anecdotal evidence I noticed a really high correlation when drafting a LATE birthday D-man and getting your star D-man. I had to go a little further back in my analysis to get this information

 

Duncan Keith 2nd round July Bday

Shea Weber 2nd round August Bday

Dustin Byfuglien 8th round March Bday

Alex Edler 3rd round April Bday(While I doubt anyone would say he's a star defenseman he was pretty good for a while, and I threw him in here because he's Canucks property)

PK Subban 2nd round May Bday

Roman Josi 2nd round June Bday

Shayne Gostisbehere 3rd round April Bday

Erik Karlsson 1st round May Bday

Oliver-Ekman Larsson 1st round July Bday

 

So basically all the super-star D-men drafted in the 2nd round and later are ALL late birthdays. There is also a lot of players I cut off this list that I would consider really good players who were also late birthdays. Therefore in my original post where the chance of drafting a super-star D (or even a #1 D for that matter) of only being 4% can be greatly increased by ONLY drafting late birthday D-men in the second round onwards. In fact I would argue anecdotally there is a greater than 50% correlation of drafting really good D by selecting late birthday D-men...therefore increasing your odds from 4% to about 10%.

 

Most of these D-men I put here are 2nd round or later but assuming this applies to 1st round talent as well I would argue that Adam Boqvist definitely has #1 star potential based solely on his late b-day. Also based on Evan Bouchard's early birthday I would pass.

 

 

 

I get what this means, but maybe we're reading too much into the late bday thing. If the sample size was since the draft started would things even out some?  Usually by that age whether or not you were born in January or December doesn't mean anything anymore as far as what grade a kids in (Dec babies could be a year younger almost than some people in the same grade born in January), surely it doesn't matter as much in professional sports drafts either aside from coincidence.  When an athlete is exactly the same age won't things be on par?  I think the most important thing is to evaluate each player individually and pick who's the best regardless of when they were born.  But just in case...(and check the tea leafs too, the more data the better).

 

 

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3 minutes ago, mikeyman109 said:

depending on who wants to trade and how far back we have to go i would still rather see us pics Wilde or Bouchard if we can trade and still get one of these two.I disagree with you on who in the top 15 will be a superstar.  Boqvist, Mciassac and Hughes are all smaller players and we already have Julolevi in that vein. What we need are a couple of big boys that can skate and have big shots.  Both Wilde and Bouchard fit the bill here

Juolevi is 6'2" 200 lbs..wouldn't call him small. While I agree we need more size on the back end I think it's more important we draft that pp qb D man that can also move the puck up fast. Not saying Wilde or Bouchard can't be those guys but for now I am moving them down my draft list based on my analysis as generally speaking early birthdays are generally safer to become a second pairing guy but generally never reach their ceiling  first pairing defensemen and we need a superstar D in our system.

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9 minutes ago, TGokou said:

Juolevi is 6'2" 200 lbs..wouldn't call him small. While I agree we need more size on the back end I think it's more important we draft that pp qb D man that can also move the puck up fast. Not saying Wilde or Bouchard can't be those guys but for now I am moving them down my draft list based on my analysis as generally speaking early birthdays are generally safer to become a second pairing guy but generally never reach their ceiling  first pairing defensemen and we need a superstar D in our system.

We’ve never had a superstar Dman.  I think Jack Rathbone could be that guy.  

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29 minutes ago, TGokou said:

Yah there could be many reasons why they sit someone. If the coachs say they wanted to switch it up (plus he was coming back from world juniors) then I'll take that at face value. It's not great news but it's not omg the sky is falling either.

The coaching staff said it was because he wasn't playing hard after the World Juniors.  They didn't do it because he was sick - or to switch it up - or anything like that.  He wasn't trying.  He was beat down.  So they scratched him a couple times and then dropped him to the bottom spot.  Which, again, isn't a very good sign (considering that he'd only played 35 games this season).  It implies that his conditioning isn't anywhere near up-to-snuff or he's dialing-it-in.  If he can't handle 35 games in the Liiga (and in junior competitions), how is he supposed to handle 82 in the toughest league on Earth (plus up to 28 more in the playoffs)?

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2 minutes ago, bloodycanuckleheads said:

The coaching staff said it was because he wasn't playing hard after the World Juniors.  They didn't do it because he was sick - or to switch it up - or anything like that.  He wasn't trying.  He was beat down.  So they scratched him a couple times and then dropped him to the bottom spot.  Which, again, isn't a very good sign (considering that he'd only played 35 games this season).  It implies that his conditioning isn't anywhere near up-to-snuff or he's dialing-it-in.  If he can't handle 35 games in the Liiga (and in junior competitions), how is he supposed to handle 82 in the toughest league on Earth (plus up to 28 more in the playoffs)?

Did you know that Nick Lidstrom, arguably the best player to come from Sweden, and one of the best players EVER (as a 21 year old in the SEL) only had 4 goals and 23 points?  And that was playing at two years older than Juiolevi.  Juiolevi is going to be an awesome player for us. 

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3 hours ago, 10pavelbure96 said:

So the top league in Finland is a league filled with ahl rejects and is a 5th tier? Lol

 

Id say Liiga is 4th behind the nhl, khl and the sel

 It's a pro league that has produced a lot of good dmen, salo, timonen, pitkanen, etc. And a lot of elite players like Selanne Kurri Laine etc

 

He's Finnish, that's why he's playing there 

But is the rest of what bloodycanucklehead said true? 

About him being a healthy scratch and on the bottom pairing. 

I'm not to worried about OJ if he's the top pairing in Finland but if he's a healthy scratch and on the bottom pairing that's a concern for sure. 

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1 hour ago, Alflives said:

Did you know that Nick Lidstrom, arguably the best player to come from Sweden, and one of the best players EVER (as a 21 year old in the SEL) only had 4 goals and 23 points?  And that was playing at two years older than Juiolevi.  Juiolevi is going to be an awesome player for us. 

Nice.  Naslund was only ok too, same with the Sedins.  Maybe it's something in your Swedish players development curve? Except for Karlsson, because of course he's really an android.

 

Now the Finn's?  Selanne was their android.

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1 hour ago, Alflives said:

Did you know that Nick Lidstrom, arguably the best player to come from Sweden, and one of the best players EVER (as a 21 year old in the SEL) only had 4 goals and 23 points?  And that was playing at two years older than Juiolevi.  Juiolevi is going to be an awesome player for us. 

And that's rare.

I don't care how you slice it. If OJ is a healthy scratch in Finland that's a huge red flag at this point 

But I hope you're right

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1 hour ago, erkayloomeh said:

But is the rest of what bloodycanucklehead said true? 

About him being a healthy scratch and on the bottom pairing. 

I'm not to worried about OJ if he's the top pairing in Finland but if he's a healthy scratch and on the bottom pairing that's a concern for sure. 

2

I have a feeling that there were a LOT of expectations in Finland for the World Juniors, considering the defense on the team they were icing was stacked with high draft picks, and a lot of those expectations fell on OJ's shoulders.  I'm guessing that he took their poor performance personally, and it's wearing on him, much like a lot of Canada's abortion two years ago was laid on Jake, and obviously hurt his confidence.  The Canucks have also asked OJ to gain weight, so I'm guessing that might be impacting his conditioning.  It sometimes takes a year or two to for young guys to get their conditioning dialed in.  OJ was great prior to the World Juniors, and once he shakes off the post-tourney blues, he'll be great again.  I think his coach is trying to challenge him to motivate him.  It's a common theme with young players in their first year of professional hockey.  D-Men take longer to develop and players develop at different rates.  OJ is going to be great for the Canucks, people just have to be a little patient.    

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3 hours ago, TGokou said:

Juolevi is 6'2" 200 lbs..wouldn't call him small. While I agree we need more size on the back end I think it's more important we draft that pp qb D man that can also move the puck up fast. Not saying Wilde or Bouchard can't be those guys but for now I am moving them down my draft list based on my analysis as generally speaking early birthdays are generally safer to become a second pairing guy but generally never reach their ceiling  first pairing defensemen and we need a superstar D in our system.

we will have to agree to disagree. Tampa has shown that big skilled skating defensemen are the way to go.I like their speed, their size and their success so far.

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19 hours ago, mikeyman109 said:

we will have to agree to disagree. Tampa has shown that big skilled skating defensemen are the way to go.I like their speed, their size and their success so far.

If we are picking high, first it’s for skill and then we get into the size a guts. 

The Canucks need big, fast and tough D to insulate the skill with. I hope they really load up this draft. 

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