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Crystal Ball The Contracts...

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Nuxfanabroad

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On 4/29/2019 at 10:05 PM, Hairy Kneel said:

Contract levels combined with Seattle's expansion rip off, er draft. This will be something for JB to captain us through. I think we're losing someone we like. 

Yeah it's a joke really, number of protectable players and the same cap space makes this crazy and able have a contending team right away is f'd!!!

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The cap is supposed to be $83m next season so lets work with that #.

 

The Canucks will have approx. $29m to "spend" and have to sign roughly 7-8 players for the NHL roster and 18 to fill out the 50 man roster.

 

Lets start with the RFA's

Granlund--pass

Leivo--$2m AAV--$27m remaining

Motte--$2m AAV--$25m remaining

Boeser--$8m AAV--$17m remaining

Goldobin--pass

Hutton--$4m AAV--$13m remaining

Pouliot--pass

Teves?--$1.5m AAV--$11.5m remaining

 

UFA's

Edler--$6m AAV--$5.5m remaining

Schenn--$1.5m AAV--$4m remaining

 

I've estimated a bit high for a couple of guys but even if Boeser signs for $6.5m, Edler for $5m and Leivo/Motte for $1.5 each that only leaves $4m-$7m to go after FA's. JB is going to have to do some crafty dealing prior to July 1st if the Canucks are going to go after any of the big or even medium UFA's. And this is with Granlund, Goldy and Pouliot not being qualified and either being traded or just let go.

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8 minutes ago, GritGrinder said:

The cap is supposed to be $83m next season so lets work with that #.

 

The Canucks will have approx. $29m to "spend" and have to sign roughly 7-8 players for the NHL roster and 18 to fill out the 50 man roster.

 

Lets start with the RFA's

Granlund--pass

Leivo--$2m AAV--$27m remaining

Motte--$2m AAV--$25m remaining

Boeser--$8m AAV--$17m remaining

Goldobin--pass

Hutton--$4m AAV--$13m remaining

Pouliot--pass

Teves?--$1.5m AAV--$11.5m remaining

 

UFA's

Edler--$6m AAV--$5.5m remaining

Schenn--$1.5m AAV--$4m remaining

 

I've estimated a bit high for a couple of guys but even if Boeser signs for $6.5m, Edler for $5m and Leivo/Motte for $1.5 each that only leaves $4m-$7m to go after FA's. JB is going to have to do some crafty dealing prior to July 1st if the Canucks are going to go after any of the big or even medium UFA's. And this is with Granlund, Goldy and Pouliot not being qualified and either being traded or just let go.

Hope they stay patient this summer. Maybe take on some AAV hit to add top youth/picks.

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We had the Sedins and Kesler in their prime for a combined 17.2M.

 

Now marner or Rantanen will make close to that by themselves. And Mcdavid took a discount to only get paid 12.5 per.

 

Wonder what the twins would get if they were in their prime now, knowing that they took discounts.

 

Probably 9.5 each on a discount and 13 for their final deal.

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6 minutes ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

Hope they stay patient this summer. Maybe take on some AAV hit to add top youth/picks.

JB will likely be "handcuffed" into remaining patient. If they can turn Sutter and one of Spooner/Loui/Pearson into picks and replace them with young players either on ELC's or value contracts then that will help them for '20-'21 when Virtanen, Gaudette, Stecher and Markstrom (possibly Tanev) will need raises.

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9 minutes ago, playboi19 said:

We had the Sedins and Kesler in their prime for a combined 17.2M.

 

Now marner or Rantanen will make close to that by themselves. And Mcdavid took a discount to only get paid 12.5 per.

 

Wonder what the twins would get if they were in their prime now, knowing that they took discounts.

 

Probably 9.5 each on a discount and 13 for their final deal.

The way things are going in 2 years its likely that Boeser/Pettersson could be making as much or more than McDavid/Draisaitl.

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23 hours ago, playboi19 said:

We had the Sedins and Kesler in their prime for a combined 17.2M.

 

Now marner or Rantanen will make close to that by themselves. And Mcdavid took a discount to only get paid 12.5 per.

 

Wonder what the twins would get if they were in their prime now, knowing that they took discounts.

 

Probably 9.5 each on a discount and 13 for their final deal.

It's a scam, with Cdn teams forced to overpay. Then late-season, that incorrigible F*** Marchand was publicly commenting on the TML(Marner). Teams like Bruins get stars at 6,7 mill(ish) & prob a slew of kickbacks under the table. It's such bull sh*t!

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13 hours ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

No highly paid stars on these final-4 teams is an indication of a way team building has trended. We need to get the contracts right with our young stars.

 

Use underpaid vets as comparables, or wind up screwed like almost every other CDN team.

With the cap going up it’s inevitable that top players are gonna get bigger paydays with higher cap hits. You’d be stupid as a player not to take as much money as you can no matter what kind of loyalty you have to one organization. It’s up to management to figure out how to figure out what the cap hit is. 

 

As for for the way team building goes it changes every few years as there doesn’t seem to be one formula how to build a Stanley Cup winner but one thing is for sure you need DEPTH at all positions which comes with solid drafting (not just in the 1st round) and hitting more than missing on trades and FA signings. Injury/referee luck is critical too which this team never has had. 

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  • 1 year later...

It has been I treating to reading through.

 

onenthing to remember though that if the cap keeps going up (which it won’t for now) signing a star to a high hit long term can actually turn out well towards the middle/end of that deal.

 

look at Crosby - while he never had the top league money he got signed to a big big deal and with him and Malkin arguable meant they couldn’t ice a complete team. Then the cap catches up and suddenly they are on good deals 

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  • 8 months later...

I like looking back at this thread. Initially tried to be optimistic on projections of all that(2018) youth we were eagerly awaiting.

 

Today was the first piece that we've moved from the original list, on post #1. I also like that JB was sooo patient, ensuring he didn't move on from youth too quickly.

 

Sure, Jake & Adam never attained the heights some of us had envisioned. Also OJ continues as a work-in-progress.

But there is so much more to be excited about today. Names like Hoglander & Podkolzin slide in with the other young talent.

Then mid-career contributors like Myers, Schmidt, Miller, Motte & hopefully, the BFG from Siberia.

 

Might be a rough season; yet sure like where we've come from the perspective of summer, 2018.

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On 5/8/2019 at 6:36 PM, playboi19 said:

We had the Sedins and Kesler in their prime for a combined 17.2M.

 

Now marner or Rantanen will make close to that by themselves. And Mcdavid took a discount to only get paid 12.5 per.

 

Wonder what the twins would get if they were in their prime now, knowing that they took discounts.

 

Probably 9.5 each on a discount and 13 for their final deal.

Cap was 56.8 back then, which works out to around 11% of overall cap for the Sedins ... I don't think anyone was expecting a one season explosion from either of them... and for them to stay as a pair most teams couldn't afford to not split them up via free agency 22% cap hit for two players required a ton of work to get to.   17 million in today's money for the pair.   Deal was fair to them and the team really.    And their final deal made up for the one season they exploded.    Yes Marner and Rantenan are overpaid.    But both also have managed a lot more production at the same age too.   Don't like 2nd contract money that's third contract money, but cap percentage wise it's not that far off either (10.7 vs 11.6) 

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I think we have less cap space moving forward than most are thinking.

 

Everyone just thinks that when Eriksson goes and the Luongo cap hit is gone, then we are in the clear.

 

Unfortunately we have raises coming to a bunch of extensions every year and we should anticipate 5 years of basically flat cap... so we won’t get relief by it continuing to rise.

 

2021 - Extensions for Hughes, Petterson, Demko kick in for probably $19 million in total.  We can assume 3 year bridge deals for the first two since we can’t afford to lock them in long term.  Juolevi needs a show me 1-2 year deal.

 

2022 - this is the only year more money is coming off the books than will be owed in raises.  We can’t spend it all though, as we have raises owed in subsequent years.  Brock goes up to $7 million minimum this year 

 

2023 - Horvat and Miller are due new contracts. Hoglander will be coming off his ELC and due a big raise if he is a top 6.  Conservatively say $6 million in raises between them.  Juolevi will need to get extended, if he works out that is a big raise... if he doesn’t, we need to find a top 4D somewhere.

 

2024 - The Petterson and Hughes bridge deals will expire and they will need to get locked in long term.  Podkolzin will also roll off his ELC and get paid market rate.

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1 hour ago, Provost said:

I think we have less cap space moving forward than most are thinking.

 

Everyone just thinks that when Eriksson goes and the Luongo cap hit is gone, then we are in the clear.

 

Unfortunately we have raises coming to a bunch of extensions every year and we should anticipate 5 years of basically flat cap... so we won’t get relief by it continuing to rise.

 

2021 - Extensions for Hughes, Petterson, Demko kick in for probably $19 million in total.  We can assume 3 year bridge deals for the first two since we can’t afford to lock them in long term.  Juolevi needs a show me 1-2 year deal.

 

2022 - this is the only year more money is coming off the books than will be owed in raises.  We can’t spend it all though, as we have raises owed in subsequent years.  Brock goes up to $7 million minimum this year 

 

2023 - Horvat and Miller are due new contracts. Hoglander will be coming off his ELC and due a big raise if he is a top 6.  Conservatively say $6 million in raises between them.  Juolevi will need to get extended, if he works out that is a big raise... if he doesn’t, we need to find a top 4D somewhere.

 

2024 - The Petterson and Hughes bridge deals will expire and they will need to get locked in long term.  Podkolzin will also roll off his ELC and get paid market rate.

Maybe....

Beagle, Roussel, Spooner, Eriksson, Loungo, Baertschi, Ferland, Holtby, Edler, Sutter. all gone by then... You don't think that is enough to cover? Maybe not, but if so isn't it like this for clubs with proper talent in their ranks? Thought this was the reason drafting was important... to fill in the blanks that will appear, if the players get too expensive?

Thought us getting Miller and later Schmidt was a result of that? Beagle as well? Myers?

Think contenders, or teams in the upper part of the league, regularly have to change the expensive 2nd, 3rd or 4th line players, or players ready for a raise) to keep within the cap... Difference for us is now the top players will be paid, and the 2 bottom lines will be cheap or ELC players... (same for defenders).

But yes money will need to be made available somehow or we may eventually see some players leave.

 

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56 minutes ago, spook007 said:

Maybe....

Beagle, Roussel, Spooner, Eriksson, Loungo, Baertschi, Ferland, Holtby, Edler, Sutter. all gone by then... You don't think that is enough to cover? Maybe not, but if so isn't it like this for clubs with proper talent in their ranks? Thought this was the reason drafting was important... to fill in the blanks that will appear, if the players get too expensive?

Thought us getting Miller and later Schmidt was a result of that? Beagle as well? Myers?

Think contenders, or teams in the upper part of the league, regularly have to change the expensive 2nd, 3rd or 4th line players, or players ready for a raise) to keep within the cap... Difference for us is now the top players will be paid, and the 2 bottom lines will be cheap or ELC players... (same for defenders).

But yes money will need to be made available somehow or we may eventually see some players leave.

 

For every player that leaves, we need to replace them.  We currently have a below average prospect pool as most of our guys have already graduated to the NHL.  Next year once Podkolzin (and possibly even Lind and Rathbone) on the team, we will again have a bottom end prospect pool, with really only our upcoming top 10 pick as a legit shot at being a higher end NHLer.

 

There isn’t much cheap help coming after this wave of guys, so replacing expiring contracts will be at market prices.

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33 minutes ago, Provost said:

For every player that leaves, we need to replace them.  We currently have a bow average prospect pool as most of our guys have already graduated to the NHL.  Next year once Podkolzin (and possibly even Lind and Rathbone) on the team, we will again have a bottom end prospect pool, with really only our upcoming top 10 pick as a legit shot at being a higher end NHLer.

 

There isn’t much cheap help coming after this wave of guys, so replacing expiring contracts will be at market prices.

True, hence I say the drafting is important. We are talking about 3-4 years from now, pending on with deals gets made. Lets see this years draft and possibly a few more drafted players, although they very unlikely will be be challenging for the top 2 lines, but players like Miller, Horvat etc may bring a decent haul, but yes there are likely going to be some changes made in 3 years time... think the year after next 22-23 will be an exciting year, and after that, it all depends on numbers...and we don't really know that now.

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