What would it take for the 2018-2019 Vancouver Canucks to make the playoffs?

[Yung1]

This years team is a bit of a wild card. With lots of fresh, hungry youth expected to be in the lineup, and a revamped bottom 6 that may be among the best in the league, this team could either soar on the wave of newly injected energy and bottom 6 grit or flop on its inexperienced top 6 and still inferior defense and goaltending. I personally would not be surprised if the team landed anywhere from 7-15 in the conference.

 

But what would it take for this years team to go a little against the odds and actually make the playoffs? What kind of seasons would individual players need to have?

 

The following are what i believe to be optimistic, but realistic, goal totals for next season.

 

Horvat - 30

Petterson 30

Boeser 45

Baertschi 20

Goldobin 20

Virtanen 20

Line 3 - 45

Line 4 - 15

Juolevi - 5

Tanev - 3

Edler - 5

Stecher - 3

Gudbranson - 2

Del zotto - 5

Other - 5

 

This outcome has us at 253 goals. That would be more goals than 5 of last year's playoff teams. It relies on horvat and boeser improving slightly over last season, pettersson coming in and doing what many believe he is capable of (including being a fantastic playmaker and increasing the goal totals of those around him), and having a deep top 9 (players like leipsic, granlund, erikson, and gaudette could all spend time on line 3 and have offensive potential).

 

Of course, defense is a huge part of the equation and somewhere where we faultered last year.

 

The following gives potential for improvement in GAA.

 

- juolevi slots in and proves to be a great improvement over last years version on hutton.

- stecher and gudbranson have yet to reach their prime and each had great reason to be motivated and put in a big summer. Both have potential to make big strides over last season.

- revamped bottom 6 gives us better "team defence" and improves our extremely inadequate pk. We could turn out to have a top pk this year.

 

I think that those 3 things could have us allowing 20-30 less goals next season. Theres even an outside chance demko emerges and gives us an improvement in net, though chances are our goaltending is similar to last season.

 

If we score 253 goals and let in 20-30 less, our differential could sit at +10 to +20 (264 GA last year). Last season there were 3 playoff teams with a differential below +10 and 6 with a differential of +20 and below (including the stanley cup winning caps at +20)

 

While it is still unlikely, i do believe we have a POTENTIAL playoff contender for the 2018/2019 season

 

*que dumb and dumber meme*

 

I'm saying theres a chance.

 

 

Edit: excuse the spelling mistake/ neglect to finish the thread title, lol. My phone made me post this before i meant to accidentally. I was also going to include my opinion of what possible for each player. I will add this later tonight when i have more time. Thanks for the discussion so far yall.

 

Edit 2: Elaboration added.

 

[kingofsurrey]

5 minutes ago, Yung1 said:

This years team is a bit of a wild card. With lots of fresh, hungry youth expected to be in the lineup, and a revamped bottom 6 that may be among the best in the league, this team could either soar on the wave of newly injected energy and bottom 6 grit or flop on its inexperienced top 6 and still inferior defense and goaltending. I personally would not be surprised if the team landed anywhere from 7-15 in the conference.

 

But what would it take for this years team to go a little against the odds and actually make the playoffs? What kind of seasons would individual players need to have?

 

 

[appleboy]

LOL

A complete rebuild to the defense. 

The emergence of a number one goal render.

[HerrDrFunk]

No injuries whatsoever.

[oldnews]

19 minutes ago, Yung1 said:

This years team is a bit of a wild card. With lots of fresh, hungry youth expected to be in the lineup, and a revamped bottom 6 that may be among the best in the league, this team could either soar on the wave of newly injected energy and bottom 6 grit or flop on its inexperienced top 6 and still inferior defense and goaltending. I personally would not be surprised if the team landed anywhere from 7-15 in the conference.

 

But what would it take for this years team to go a little against the odds and actually make the playoffs? What kind of seasons would individual players need to have?

 

 

Health.

 

Once again, they'll have a relatively thin group of veterans.  Key ijuries to their veteran group like Edler, Tanev, Gudbranson, Sutter et  al - as has been routine the past number of years - and they're once again a lottery team.

 

However, if they gain that ever elusive health......and their youth continue to uptick, they could compete in the 20 to 15 range.  Some people might consider that a disaster, but I wouldn't be terribly disappointed if they wound up picking 10th next draft.   And if they have a few breakout seasons from their young top 6 forwards (in addition to BB, Horvat sustaining), who knows....

[Nuxfanabroad]

Makr th??? What the hay?!

 

edit: Hey, it's fixed! Good job, OP.

[Nucker 67]

I agree, that upgrades to the D and goaltending would help a lot with getting to the playoffs. But I also agree that the Canucks are a bit of a wild card this year.

 

Gone are the Sedins, so the Canucks will be faster.

 

In will be Pettersson, and maybe Juolevi and Demko. That sounds like a bit of an upgrade to the D and goaltending anyway. Plus, we've got some real good depth and character players in Beagle and Roussel. We also don't know what a full season of Boeser looks like.

 

I don't believe they'll make the playoffs, but I won't be surprised if they made things interesting down the stretch.

[PhillipBlunt]

So the Canucks are going to be makring the what exactly?

[oldnews]

Just now, PhillipBlunt said:

So the Canucks are going to be makring the what exactly?

Makr my words, they're gonna be Gud.

[Toews]

Our division will have to really stink up the joint for us to have a shot. Assuming LA and VGK don't suffer a massive drop off and stay 1/2, we have to hope that everyone else has injury issues leading to a whole lot of sucking. Maybe if the threshold to reach the playoffs went down from ~94 points to in and around the ~85 point range then the Canucks might actually have a shot. 

[Nuxfanabroad]

No need to break through, just yet. 1 more yr of patience, after the 5 yr, stealthy Ninja-rejig.

 

PS..OP, you should tweak your title..misspelled, doesn't make sense(might get locked?). Just use edit button, amigo

[kingofsurrey]

Just hope that the new Canuck Management Team can keep Trev's slow steady rebuild vision intact.......

 Nonis,  Gillis, Gilman , Henning and now Linden....

 

Miracles are not likely..  we need to go slow with drAFT AND DEVELOP.....

 

[appleboy]

Tanev playing a full season.

Guddy staying healthy and being a lot better than what we have seen.

Juolevi making the team and just being solid. Nothing fancy.

One of the goal tenders being solid.

We need another center. No one wins with a number two center. Pettersson must become a number one center. "No pressure kid"!

If Sutter or Beagle is your number two then we have troubles.

Being healthy would help but this team has huge holes to fill.

 

[Nucker 67]

I noticed last year the Canucks had 11 OT losses and lost all 5 shootouts. Henrik Sedin scored a whopping 3 goals all last year.

 

I'm thinking, with Pettersson and a full year of Boeser, an improved Virtanen, the Canucks could really improve their OTs and shootouts. Those extra points add up.

 

 

 

[kingofsurrey]

I think if Bure would come out of retirement and agree to a 1 year . 1 mil contract.... then Canucks may have a chance at the playoffs....

[Roberts]

they're going to need some real good games

[goalie13]

It will probably take about 96 to 98 points to make the playoffs.

[kingofsurrey]

I could see playoffs if we could  improve teams . truculence.. and  find a way to sign these guys.....

 

.

[-AJ-]

 We need few injuries, many great seasons by a lot of our players, one or two defensemen to break out, and surpringly good goaltending. I'll be happy if one of those four happens. 

[gameburn]

30 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

I noticed last year the Canucks had 11 OT losses and lost all 5 shootouts. Henrik Sedin scored a whopping 3 goals all last year.

 

I'm thinking, with Pettersson and a full year of Boeser, an improved Virtanen, the Canucks could really improve their OTs and shootouts. Those extra points add up.

 

 

 

So... 7 extra wins?

And maybe 3 less wins because we won't be playing teams that take the night off against us, as they did in the last 20 games of the year?

 

So, net gain of maybe 5 wins?  Or is that 5 wins that were ties/OT losses last year? i.e., only 5 points more?

 

Or another way:

If Demko provides better backup goaltending than we had last year = 4 points extra. (1 stolen game, 2 losses that become OT losses. and one OT loss that is an OT win.)

If Pettersson and Dahlen make the team we gain team speed, and maybe a better pp = 4 points extra.  (This takes into account the loss of the Sedins, as well, I think, that is that team speed will provide better defense than that provided by the Sedins.)

If Boeser plays the complete year, and if Juolevi makes the team = 4 points extra.

If Horvat, Virtanen, and Hutton keep improving = 2 points extra?   

This could be a 14 point turnaround, 15 points even,  if either of Virtanen or Hutton become mainstays. 

 

To make the playoffs we need 93 points, let's say.

Last year we had 73 points... so if we get 14 more, then we're still out, but 4 points better than last year's Flames, who had 83 points.  This sounds about right, tbh.

 

To make the playoffs as soon as next year?

If we had no major injuries, and if Pettersson is in Boeser's class for points (which I think he will be) then the team could do a bit better than 87 points, which means we're getting closer still, maybe squeaking in with 92 points. 

 

To make the playoffs with much less luck:

The year after 2018-2019 will see Demko as the starter and Lind and/or Gadjovich making the team, along with Hughes and Woo... which I believe will take us past Calgary and possibly LA, to somewhere around 95 points.  No way to tell how good Vegas and Edmonton will be in 18 months, but I suspect we will make the playoffs and win a round, provided Demko is good.