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US Midterms Tuesday


DonLever

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CTV:

 

WASHINGTON -- The day of reckoning for American politics has nearly arrived.

Voters on Tuesday will decide the $5-billion debate between President Donald Trump's take-no-prisoner politics and the Democratic Party's super-charged campaign to end the GOP's hold on power in Washington and statehouses across the nation.

There are indications that a modest "blue wave" of support may help Democrats seize control of at least one chamber of Congress. But two years after an election that proved polls and prognosticators wrong, nothing is certain on the eve of the first nationwide elections of the Trump presidency.

 

"I don't think there's a Democrat in this country that doesn't have a little angst left over from 2016 deep down," said Stephanie Schriock, president of EMILY's List, which spent more than ever before -- nearly $60 million in all -- to support Democratic women this campaign season.

"Everything matters and everything's at stake," Schriock said.

All 435 seats in the U.S. House are up for re-election. And 35 Senate seats are in play, as are almost 40 governorships and the balance of power in virtually every state legislature.

While he is not on the ballot, Trump acknowledged on Monday that the 2018 midterms represent a referendum on his presidency.

"In a certain way I am on the ballot," Trump told supporters during a tele-town hall organized by his re-election campaign. "The press is very much considering it a referendum on me and us as a movement."

He also contended, as he does daily, that if the Democrats win they will work to roll back everything he's tried to accomplish. "It's all fragile," he said.

 

Should Democrats win control of the House, as strategists in both parties suggest is likely, they could derail Trump's legislative agenda for the next two years. Perhaps more important, they would win subpoena power to investigate Trump's many personal and professional missteps.

Tuesday's elections will also test the strength of a Trump-era political realignment defined by evolving divisions among voters by race, gender and especially education.

Trump's Republican coalition is increasingly older, whiter, more male and less likely to have a college degree. Democrats are relying more upon women, people of colour, young people and college graduates.

The political realignment, if it solidifies, could re-shape U.S. politics for a generation.

Just five years ago, the Republican National Committee reported that the GOP's very survival depended upon attracting more minorities and women. Those voters have increasingly fled Trump's Republican Party, turned off by his chaotic leadership style and xenophobic rhetoric. Blue-collar men, however, have embraced the unconventional president.

 

One of the RNC report's authors, Ari Fleischer, acknowledged that Republican leaders never envisioned expanding their ranks with white, working-class men.

"What it means to be Republican is being rewritten as we speak," Fleischer said. "Donald Trump has the pen, and his handwriting isn't always very good."

A nationwide poll released Sunday by NBC News and The Wall Street Journal details the depth of the demographic shifts.

Democrats led with likely African-American voters (84 per cent to 8 per cent), Latinos (57 per cent to 29 per cent), voters between the ages of 18-34 (57 per cent to 34 per cent), women (55 per cent to 37 per cent) and independents (35 per cent to 23 per cent).

Among white college-educated women, Democrats enjoy a 28-point advantage: 61 per cent to 33 per cent.

On the other side, Republicans led with voters between the ages of 50 and 64 (52 per cent to 43 per cent), men (50 per cent to 43 per cent) and whites (50 per cent to 44 per cent). And among white men without college degrees, Republicans led 65 per cent to 30 per cent.

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The 13 most important governor elections in 2018, briefly explained

With many GOP seats open, Democrats could gain a lot of ground in the 2018 gubernatorial elections.

Republicans currently hold an astonishing two-thirds of the governors’ mansions across the country, giving the GOP an overwhelming advantage in controlling state governments. This year, 26 of those seats are on the ballot.

Forecasts from leading election watchers show about 18 of the most competitive governor races in the 2018 midterm elections are currently Republican-held seats. Democrats finally have a lot of chances to regain some ground.

Beyond the usual issues, there’s one other big reason to pay attention to governors this year: Governors who are elected in 2018 will almost all still be in office in 2021, when the next round of congressional redistricting starts. In many states, governors will wield a veto pen over the new House and state legislative maps.

As in all elections this year, Donald Trump will loom large over the gubernatorial campaigns. In some major races, like Florida, his handpicked candidate is running up against an upstart Democrat who is betting on a big blue wave. Democrats are polling strongly even in states like Ohio, which Trump won by 8 points.

 

https://www.vox.com/2018/10/15/17959858/2018-midterm-elections-governor-florida-georgia-wisconsin-ohio

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4 minutes ago, Ryan Strome said:

How many seats in the senate and congress do dems need to take control?

23 in the House. 2 in the Senate. The House seems very doable. The Senate is a dream as they are defending way more turf than are Republicans. And Dems are almost assured to lose their Senate seat in North Dakota.

 

Pay attention to Senate races in Tennessee, Texas and Arizona. If Dems can grab those it's possible but that means knocking off Ted Cruz.

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1 minute ago, nuckin_futz said:

23 in the House. 2 in the Senate. The House seems very doable. The Senate is a dream as they are defending way more turf than are Republicans. And Dems are almost assured to lose their Senate seat in North Dakota.

 

Pay attention to Senate races in Tennessee, Texas and Arizona. If Dems can grab those it's possible but that means knocking off Ted Cruz.

Thanks.

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2 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

23 in the House. 2 in the Senate. The House seems very doable. The Senate is a dream as they are defending way more turf than are Republicans. And Dems are almost assured to lose their Senate seat in North Dakota.

 

Pay attention to Senate races in Tennessee, Texas and Arizona. If Dems can grab those it's possible but that means knocking off Ted Cruz.

It's a long shot but if O'Rourke actually knocks off Cruz, it'd be an absolute joy to not have to see Cruz' face in the senate anymore. 

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Senate forecast: 1/5 chance Dem's get a majority

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

House:

 

7/8 chance Dem's get a majority:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=midterms-header

 

So.... as predictions have been way off these days I wouldn't count on anything :lol: but it will be interesting to see how close reality is to these 

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1 hour ago, Ryan Strome said:

I'm calling fake. 

 

Trump is way to thin in that picture.

Actually looks like they cloned Putin's body, then dropped Trump's head on it....

 

...You knew it wasn't really Trump, because he isn't riding side-saddle....B)

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