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A Look at the Projected 2018-19 NHL Scoring Race


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Projected 2018-19 NHL Scoring Race

by Lyle Richardson | Dec 16, 2018 | Soapbox | 1 comment

 

In mid-October, I took note of the high rate of scoring during the opening weeks of this NHL season. While acknowledging scoring has slowly risen since 2015-16, I assumed October’s higher-than-usual rate of goals (3.11) would decline over the remainder of the schedule as players and teams adjusted to the slog of a long season.

As of Dec. 15, however, goal production has remained at the same rate. 

The number of power-play opportunities (3.15) and power-play percentage (20.41) is slightly higher than the previous two seasons. It’s worth noting, however, that those numbers were significantly higher a few seasons ago without generating a big boost in goals percentage.

Save percentage has continued its steady decline since the .914 peak of 2015-16, sliding to .907. Gradual reductions in goalie equipment, especially pads and chest protectors, could be contributing factors.

Another reason is a number of players are scoring at rates unseen since 2005-06, the last time the average goal rate rose over 3.00.

The league’s ongoing trend toward youth and speed is a significant factor. Among this season’s current top-10 point leaders as of Dec. 15, all but Washington Capitals captain Alex Ovechkin and Winnipeg Jets winger Blake Wheeler were 25 or younger.

 

Rantanen-150x150.jpg

Current NHL scoring leader Mikko Rantanen is among several players who could exceed 100 points this season. (Photo via NHL Images)

 

At the current rate of production, 17 players among the current scoring leaders (as of Dec. 15, 2018) could reach 100 points over the remainder of this season (stick tap to The Sports Forecaster). 

Mikko Rantanen, Colorado Avalanche: 139 points

Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche: 129 points

Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers: 121 points

Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning: 116 points

Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals: 110 points

Mark Scheifele, Winnipeg Jets: 110 points

Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs: 107 points

Blake Wheeler, Winnipeg Jets: 110 points

Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers: 105 points

Johnny Gaudreau, Calgary Flames: 104 points

Brayden Point, Tampa Bay Lightning: 102 points

Jack Eichel, Buffalo Sabres: 102 points

Gabriel Landeskog, Colorado Avalanche: 99 points

Nicklas Backstrom, Washington Capitals: 103 points

David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins: 100 points

Jonathan Huberdeau, Florida Panthers: 101 points

Claude Giroux, Philadelphia Flyers: 103 points

The last time more than 10 players reached 100 points was 1995-96 (12). That group included Hall-of-Famers Mario Lemieux, Joe Sakic, Ron Francis, Peter Forsberg, Eric Lindros, Paul Kariya, Teemu Selanne, Sergei Fedorov, and Wayne Gretzky, as well as future Hall-of-Fame inductees Jaromir Jagr and Alexander Mogilny.

Thirteen players could score 50 goals, something no player has done since 2015-16. Three of them could even become the first to reach 60 goals since the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Steven Stamkos in 2010-11.

Alexander Ovechkin, Washington Capitals: 74 goals

Patrik Laine, Winnipeg Jets: 57 goals

Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs: 57 goals

Jeff Skinner, Buffalo Sabres: 55 goals

David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins: 54 goals

Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche: 52 goals

Gabriel Landeskog, Colorado Avalanche: 52 goals

Brayden Point: Tampa Bay Lightning: 52 goals

Mark Scheifele, Winnipeg Jets: 51 goals

John Tavares, Toronto Maple Leafs: 50 goals

Joe Pavelski, San Jose Sharks: 50 goals

Cam Atkinson, Columbus Blue Jackets: 50 goals

Sean Monahan, Calgary Flames: 50 goals

The last NHL season that saw 10-or-more players reach 50 goals mark was in 1992-93. Fourteen of them – Mogilny, Selanne, and Lemieux, along with fellow Hall-of-Famers Luc Robitaille, Pavel Bure, Steve Yzerman, Dave Andreychuk, Brett Hull, Pat LaFontaine, Mark Recchi, and Brendan Shanahan, as well as Pierre Turgeon, Kevin Stevens, and Jeremy Roenick – achieved that milestone.

There’s still a long way to go until the end of the regular season in April. Most of the current scoring leaders should see their production decline as the long physical grind takes its toll during the second half of the schedule.

Still, even if half of these players drop out of their projected 50-goal and 100-point pace, the remainder will still represent a significant increase over those who reached those respective marks in recent years. It could become the league’s best offensive season since 2005-06 when five players tallied at least 50 goals and seven reached 100 points.

 

 

https://www.spectorshockey.net/2018/12/projected-2018-19-nhl-scoring-race/

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18 minutes ago, Jaku said:

Holy crap. Can you imagine having that many 100 point players and that many 50 goal scorers? This is what the NHL wanted. 

It's much more akin to the 2005-06 season, which in my mind is the ideal level of offense. We are sitting in the perfect hockey world right now it feels.

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3 minutes ago, -AJ- said:

It's much more akin to the 2005-06 season, which in my mind is the ideal level of offense. We are sitting in the perfect hockey world right now it feels.

I love it. The speed and offense of today's NHL is exciting.

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23 minutes ago, Jaku said:

Holy crap. Can you imagine having that many 100 point players and that many 50 goal scorers? This is what the NHL wanted. 

The NHL needs to get rid of the "oops 'scuse me" interference that every single D is 'allowed' to get away with at the blue line as a player dumps the puck past them.  They are GIVEN a two second window to step in front of, cross check, and pick the oncoming player!  It used to be interference.   If they want more goals, get rid of this ONE thing.

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1 minute ago, xereau said:

The NHL needs to get rid of the "oops 'scuse me" interference that every single D is 'allowed' to get away with at the blue line as a player dumps the puck past them.  They are GIVEN a two second window to step in front of, cross check, and pick the oncoming player!  It used to be interference.   If they want more goals, get rid of this ONE thing.

It will certainly help if they do.

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5 minutes ago, xereau said:

The NHL needs to get rid of the "oops 'scuse me" interference that every single D is 'allowed' to get away with at the blue line as a player dumps the puck past them.  They are GIVEN a two second window to step in front of, cross check, and pick the oncoming player!  It used to be interference.   If they want more goals, get rid of this ONE thing.

I was genuinely surprised when Edler actually drew a penalty from one of those last night. 

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1 hour ago, xereau said:

The NHL needs to get rid of the "oops 'scuse me" interference that every single D is 'allowed' to get away with at the blue line as a player dumps the puck past them.  They are GIVEN a two second window to step in front of, cross check, and pick the oncoming player!  It used to be interference.   If they want more goals, get rid of this ONE thing.

Hutton is actually one of the best at executing that move cleanly, usually with a stick check at or near the blue line. There was an article recently about his neutral zone entry breakup being near tops in the league. It would definitely benefit the skill defenders going forward.

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1 hour ago, -AJ- said:

It's much more akin to the 2005-06 season, which in my mind is the ideal level of offense. We are sitting in the perfect hockey world right now it feels.

Ken Hitchcock laughs.:P

 

( the coach that gives Jacques Lemaire orgasms)

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56 minutes ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

A reason why I've been looking at/suggesting we should perhaps make a goaltender-deal, sooner than later. Dearth of good 'tenders, these days. Lot of teams lacking in this regard.

A lot of good goalies are looking very average this year. Maybe it's the equipment change or whatever, but right now it looks like it's going to be difficult for goalies to get paid and this either improves the goaltending training to try an improve on this aspect or it may make less people want to become goalies to lower the quality even more. Even if the training improves, once goals start to drop again, the league will find another way to bring goals back up and goalies seem to get the short end of it all the time. Kind of unfortunately because goaltending growing up has got to be one of the more expensive positions to support.

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NHL is in the dirty biz of flogging ducats..much as poss

 

After holidays the reffs lose whistles, & goons are sometimes allowed to assist the league's(mostly) US team agenda.

 

You can't really accurately base the 2nd half upon projections of the first.

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Is this just a ppg average times the number of games they have left? Or similar calculation? Does it factor in games lost to injury? Probably not. Lots of things could factor in, like a linemate being injured, or even a starting goalie, for example. We're just now starting to see the Petey and Boes show. Pettersson missed 6 games earlier, and Boeser missed a bunch more. They're both healthy and [producing every game. I can see Pettersson ending up with around 90+ points and being in the Top 20 scoring. 

 

 

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“Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning: 116 points 

Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals: 110 points 

Mark Scheifele, Winnipeg Jets: 110 points 

Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs: 107 points 

Blake Wheeler, Winnipeg Jets: 110 points 

Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers: 105 points 

Johnny Gaudreau, Calgary Flames: 104 points”

 

Funny even the stats guys do it. It is a rank list. Everyone is listed in order of Highest points except the one Toronto Maple Leaf. They bump him higher in the list just because. 

‘Something about the Leafs. They just can’t help but get overrated. 

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