How many career NHL goals will Ovechkin score by the end of his career?

[J-Dizzle]

8 hours ago, -AJ- said:

Alex Ovechkin is on a tear and it's not the first time he's been like this. However, what makes this time more insane is that he's not only on pace for one of the best seasons of his career, but that he's 35 years old and doesn't seem to be slowing down at all. The question that begs to be asked is: How far can he go?

 

Many are already saying that he's the greatest goalscorer of all time whereas some others need a little more before going that far, but there's no question that Ovechkin's the greatest goalscorer of this generation of hockey. Since the 2005-06 season, when Ovie's career began, he's scored 636 goals. Second place in that time frame is Sidney Crosby at 426 goals, over 200 goals behind Ovie. 

 

Among players who've played significant time in the NHL, only Bure, Bossy, and Lemieux are ahead of his career 0.61 goals per game. Of those three, only Lemieux played beyond 31 years of age. At 33 and still scoring at a pace that leaves him a strong chance of hitting at least 60 goals this year, the question that lingers in minds now is: can Ovie catch the Great One? Gretzky retired with 894 goals, meaning that Ovechkin is 258 goals behind him still. 

 

Of all players aged 33 and older, Gordie Howe has the most goals within that age bracket with 332 goals, but keep in mind that Howe played in the NHL until he was 42 and then one more season at 51 years of age. Questions are abound as to how long Ovechkin will keep playing, but if he lasts until his 40s, there's a pretty reasonable chance that he can make it.

 

This is all just background information to help you determine how far you think Ovie will go. So? How far can he go? Will he pass Jagr's 766 goals? Howe's 801 goals? Can he even surpass the Great One's goal totals and perhaps eclipse the 900-goal barrier? Or will he die down suddenly and fall short of 750 goals?

 

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For my money, I'm betting he becomes the third player to break the 800-goal mark, but ends up retiring with around 860-870 goals, based on my guess of him retiring in his late 30s. If he plays until his 40s, I can't see him falling short of Gretzky unless injuries come into play. I think that by the time he retires, he is unquestionably the greatest goalscorer in the history of the NHL.

FTFY      

[Bure_Pavel]

As long as he passes that Lays eating son of a $*!&% Messier. 

[Putgolzin]

If he gets to 800 he’ll just plant himself in front of the net for 5 seasons at 15-20 goals each - head-butting and kneeing them in or whatever - no chance he gets that close and doesn’t keep going until he breaks it.

[CrippledCanuck]

893

[Gnarcore]

9 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Wayne Gretzky had 38 goals and 130 points as a 33 year old, then his production fell off considerably.  People say it was so easy to score in the 80's but nobody mentions the fact that Gretzky won the scoring title playing in LA not Edmonton as a 33 year old in 1994.  I don't recall goalies being that small in the 90's, especially Martin Brodeur and Patrick Roy, arguably the two greatest goalies ever.

 

As for Ovechkin, I see him having a similar downward trend after next year.  His game relies upon speed and physicality, unlike Gretzky who used his smarts and great vision to collect points, so I see a big drop off in production for Ovechkin after the age of 35.  He could hit 800 goals, it's a possibility.  But I think it's more realistic he will end up somewhere close to Jagr.  I could be wrong but I don't see him playing past the age of 38.

 

 

Brodeur and Roy are polar opposites. Roy was butterfly and tall with huge gear. Brodeur was shorter, athletic, more stand up/unorthodox and worse smaller gear even back then. 

 

I agree with the Gretz bit...Ovy will fall off too and not catch 99. 

[MikeBossy]

13 hours ago, -AJ- said:

Alex Ovechkin is on a tear and it's not the first time he's been like this. However, what makes this time more insane is that he's not only on pace for one of the best seasons of his career, but that he's 33 years old and doesn't seem to be slowing down at all. The question that begs to be asked is: How far can he go?

 

Many are already saying that he's the greatest goalscorer of all time whereas some others need a little more before going that far, but there's no question that Ovechkin's the greatest goalscorer of this generation of hockey. Since the 2005-06 season, when Ovie's career began, he's scored 636 goals. Second place in that time frame is Sidney Crosby at 426 goals, over 200 goals behind Ovie. 

 

Among players who've played significant time in the NHL, only Bure, Bossy, and Lemieux are ahead of his career 0.61 goals per game. Of those three, only Lemieux played beyond 31 years of age. At 33 and still scoring at a pace that leaves him a strong chance of hitting at least 60 goals this year, the question that lingers in minds now is: can Ovie catch the Great One? Gretzky retired with 894 goals, meaning that Ovechkin is 258 goals behind him still. 

 

Of all players aged 33 and older, Gordie Howe has the most goals within that age bracket with 332 goals, but keep in mind that Howe played in the NHL until he was 42 and then one more season at 51 years of age. Questions are abound as to how long Ovechkin will keep playing, but if he lasts until his 40s, there's a pretty reasonable chance that he can make it.

 

This is all just background information to help you determine how far you think Ovie will go. So? How far can he go? Will he pass Jagr's 766 goals? Howe's 801 goals? Can he even surpass the Great One's goal totals and perhaps eclipse the 900-goal barrier? Or will he die down suddenly and fall short of 750 goals?

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------

 

For my money, I'm betting he becomes the third player to break the 800-goal mark, but ends up retiring with around 860-870 goals, based on my guess of him retiring in his late 30s. If he plays until his 40s, I can't see him falling short of Gretzky unless injuries come into play. I think that by the time he retires, he is unquestionably the greatest goalscorer in the history of the NHL.

Imagine what Bossy could have done had he not had the back injury - still unbelievable that he had 9 consecutive 50 goal seasons. And played the game with class - hence why he's my all time fav. I think (and really hope) Ovi breaks Gretzky's record. He is a true gift to the game!!!

[A Skylit Drive]

He’s going to do it I feel it 

[IBatch]

On 12/18/2018 at 8:55 AM, Ghostsof1915 said:

You're looking at the trees, not the forest. It was a multiple things of changes that killed scoring in the league by the end of the 90's. Clutching and grabbing, trap or weak side lock defensive systems. Bigger pads, bigger goalies. There's a reason not only Gretzky's numbers dropped but look at guys like Yzerman, he went from being a pure offensive forward. To one of the best two way forwards in the game, but he never went beyond 100 points past 1993. 

Scoring was killed after the 94 season, that’s the start of the the dead puck era, all the “crappy “ teams started using the trap, and Roy’s butterfly style was making an impact, more so clutching, grabbing and hooking weren’t being called unless a player fell down, and even then only if he didn’t do it on purpose. Interference was allowed too.  Gretzky played the last five years of his career in this, and was brought down to earth by it and age (and still put up respectable numbers).

 

Ovi relies on a ton of shots, this year his SP is way higher than his career norm, like by 10%.  Will that continue? Doubtful.  Will he get better?  Not a chance, there is only one Howe.  Can he play until he’s 42-44?  Maybe.  I think that’s what it will take for him to score more goals than anyone else.  And if he does Gretzky can rest easy knowing his 3300 PLUS career NHL and Playoff combined totals are safe...he even scored one more goal than Howe did professionally, but Howe retired when he was 52 (WHA and playoffs combined).

 

I like Ovi, he’s a great star, but he’s no Gretzky - he scored every which way, including off face offs (never seen anyone else do that), Ovi is a puck pounder more than anything, and will retire with the most shots on goal for a forward, if not all players by the time he’s done.  Boeser should take notes.

[IBatch]

On 12/18/2018 at 6:02 PM, Gnarcore said:

Brodeur and Roy are polar opposites. Roy was butterfly and tall with huge gear. Brodeur was shorter, athletic, more stand up/unorthodox and worse smaller gear even back then. 

 

I agree with the Gretz bit...Ovy will fall off too and not catch 99. 

Hmmm...I bet to differ.  Brodeur loved Roy and emmualated him in popularizing the butterfly.  As far as height goes they both weren’t really tall by today’s standards, but tall enough to cover both posts when they dropped down.  Look at Roys gear from 86 and 93 and maybe reconsider your position on gear size, he used the old leather pads when he came in, the ones that added ten pounds of water weight throughout the game, still great enough to a Conn Smythe and a cup though.  Brodeur was different that’s for sure, but the extra inch and different gear wasn’t what made them that way...it was the 2001 final that really separated them, the one that garnered Roy’s third conn smythe

[-AJ-]

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

Scoring was killed after the 94 season, that’s the start of the the dead puck era, all the “crappy “ teams started using the trap, and Roy’s butterfly style was making an impact, more so clutching, grabbing and hooking weren’t being called unless a player fell down, and even then only if he didn’t do it on purpose. Interference was allowed too.  Gretzky played the last five years of his career in this, and was brought down to earth by it and age (and still put up respectable numbers).

 

Ovi relies on a ton of shots, this year his SP is way higher than his career norm, like by 10%.  Will that continue? Doubtful.  Will he get better?  Not a chance, there is only one Howe.  Can he play until he’s 42-44?  Maybe.  I think that’s what it will take for him to score more goals than anyone else.  And if he does Gretzky can rest easy knowing his 3300 PLUS career NHL and Playoff combined totals are safe...he even scored one more goal than Howe did professionally, but Howe retired when he was 52 (WHA and playoffs combined).

 

I like Ovi, he’s a great star, but he’s no Gretzky - he scored every which way, including off face offs (never seen anyone else do that), Ovi is a puck pounder more than anything, and will retire with the most shots on goal for a forward, if not all players by the time he’s done.  Boeser should take notes.

I think there's a misconception that offense fell off the face of a cliff after 1993-94, but I beg to differ. Up through the 1996-97 season, teams were still averaging right around 3 goals per game. In 1994-95, both Jagr and Lindros scored on pace for about 120 points. 1995-96 had Lemieux at 161 points, Jagr at 149 points, and a total of six players with 115+ points. 1996-97 was finally the start of a drop, but Lemieux still had 122 points and the league still averaged 2.92 goals per game. In my mind, the dead puck era began in 1997-98, when goals-per-game dropped from 2.92 dramatically down to 2.64. In 1997-98, only four players had 90+ points, in stark contrast to the three years prior.

 

With regards to Ovie, it gets hard to claim that he'll need to play until 42 to beat Gretzky unless you predict a dramatic drop in his offense. 

 

He's at 33 years old right now and can probably reasonably score another 30 goals to finish with 59 goals and a career total of 666. Even if you predict him to fall off a cliff down to 30 goals and then 20 goals for the next 4 years followed by 15 per year until he's 42 years old, he still ends up with 836 goals, and those are very modest projections. I think it's unlikely that he drops from how he's playing now down to just 30 goals and then 20 in such a short time frame. Add to all that that offense is clearly going up in the NHL right now and I think we'll see him at least get close.

 

I'm projecting something similar to this:

 

Goals - Age - Career total

45 goals - 34 years old - 711 goals

39 goals - 35 years old - 750 goals

37 goals - 36 years old - 787 goals

32 goals - 37 years old - 819 goals

28 goals - 38 years old - 847 goals

22 goals - 39 years old - 869 goals

Retirement

 

And it's not unlikley, as some say, that Ovie may want to keep playing just to beat the 894 goal mark and become the leading all-time goal scorer. Unless you predict Ovie to fall off a cliff at some point, I don't see how he doesn't reach Gretzky if he plays into his early 40s.

 

[ForsbergTheGreat]

 

Not saying you're projections are off, but just for reference:

 

Quote

I'm projecting something similar to this:

 

Goals - Age - Career total

45 goals - 34 years old - 711 goals (only 1 player in the history have put up 39 goals or more as a 35 year old)

39 goals - 35 years old - 750 goals  (only 3 players in the history have put up 39 goals or more as a 35 year old)

37 goals - 36 years old - 787 goals (only 5 players in the history have put up 37 goals or more as a 36 year old)

32 goals - 37 years old - 819 goals (only 5 players in the history have put up 32 goals or more as a 37 year old)

28 goals - 38 years old - 847 goals (only 3 players in the history have put up 28 goals or more as a 38 year old)

22 goals - 39 years old - 869 goals (12 players in the history have put up 22 goals or more as a 39 year old)

Retirement

7 players have put up over 20 goals or more at 40 years old

7 players have put up over 15 goals or more at 41 years old

3 players have put up over 15 goals or more at 42 years old

Jagr put up 27 goals as a 43 year old, no one else put up over 10 goals.

Jagr put up 16 goals as a 44 year old, no one else put up over 2 goals.

 

Depending on how long he wants to play and how healthy he stays it definitely is possible.

 

[-AJ-]

24 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

 

Not saying you're projections are off, but just for reference:

 

 

Depending on how long he wants to play and how healthy he stays it definitely is possible.

 

Yep, I believe he'll be considered the best goalscorer of all-time, so those metrics match up by my judgement.

 

Also worth noting that Howe put up 15 goals as a 51 year old.

[skolozsy2]

On 12/18/2018 at 6:27 PM, MikeBossy said:

Imagine what Bossy could have done had he not had the back injury - still unbelievable that he had 9 consecutive 50 goal seasons. And played the game with class - hence why he's my all time fav. I think (and really hope) Ovi breaks Gretzky's record. He is a true gift to the game!!!

A big reason for Ovi being on such goal scoring pace is his insane shooting percentage this year.  He's at 21.2% as of now, and his career average shooting percentage is just over 12%.  Ovi has almost doubled his career average. 

 

What's even more insane is that Mike Bossy averaged a 21.2% shooting percentage over his ENTIRE career....not just one season.  That's just remarkable. 

[Guest]

Tough comparisons, although I truly do believe that Ovi would’ve racked up 80 and 90 goal seasons in the 80s.

[Guest]

Imagine his goal totals if he played in the 70s-90s

[Tortorella's Rant]

Right up there will Hull and Jagr, of course, unless he played until he was 40 scoring 40 a season he won't catch Wayner. Having a couple dud 3x seasons didn't help either, but it may not really matter anyway. 

[IBatch]

On 12/20/2018 at 7:41 PM, -AJ- said:

I think there's a misconception that offense fell off the face of a cliff after 1993-94, but I beg to differ. Up through the 1996-97 season, teams were still averaging right around 3 goals per game. In 1994-95, both Jagr and Lindros scored on pace for about 120 points. 1995-96 had Lemieux at 161 points, Jagr at 149 points, and a total of six players with 115+ points. 1996-97 was finally the start of a drop, but Lemieux still had 122 points and the league still averaged 2.92 goals per game. In my mind, the dead puck era began in 1997-98, when goals-per-game dropped from 2.92 dramatically down to 2.64. In 1997-98, only four players had 90+ points, in stark contrast to the three years prior.

 

With regards to Ovie, it gets hard to claim that he'll need to play until 42 to beat Gretzky unless you predict a dramatic drop in his offense. 

 

He's at 33 years old right now and can probably reasonably score another 30 goals to finish with 59 goals and a career total of 666. Even if you predict him to fall off a cliff down to 30 goals and then 20 goals for the next 4 years followed by 15 per year until he's 42 years old, he still ends up with 836 goals, and those are very modest projections. I think it's unlikely that he drops from how he's playing now down to just 30 goals and then 20 in such a short time frame. Add to all that that offense is clearly going up in the NHL right now and I think we'll see him at least get close.

 

I'm projecting something similar to this:

 

Goals - Age - Career total

45 goals - 34 years old - 711 goals

39 goals - 35 years old - 750 goals

37 goals - 36 years old - 787 goals

32 goals - 37 years old - 819 goals

28 goals - 38 years old - 847 goals

22 goals - 39 years old - 869 goals

Retirement

 

And it's not unlikley, as some say, that Ovie may want to keep playing just to beat the 894 goal mark and become the leading all-time goal scorer. Unless you predict Ovie to fall off a cliff at some point, I don't see how he doesn't reach Gretzky if he plays into his early 40s.

 

Go back and look again, there was a distinct drop in scoring after the 94 season that continued right through the dead puck era, look at it like a graph.  Teams peaked in the something like 82 with the average goals scored per game at over eight, it went up and down from there right through the early nineties where you answered something like around six goals per game.  I don’t have the stuff infront of me, but I’ve seen it enough times and read enoug about it to know that it stands up.  It is largely considered the start of the dead puck era, the trap was gaining popularity as the league continued to expand and it was an easy system to use as interference had already crept into the game.  Lemuiex quit eventually because he was sick of the Rodeo, quoting his stats are great he was awesome and way above his peers at the time.   

 

After the half year that Lindros won the Hart hockey changed, the trap gained in popularity, Lemuiex still had it but Gretzky was close to retirement, and the days of multiple 100 plus point scorers were numbered.

[WHL rocks]

Watched Gretzky play in the old PNE colosseum many times.. his 9th (I think) last game of career was in Toronto. i went there to watch him play at the old maple leaf gardens in Toronto to watch that game..  Danny cloutier was in net for NYR I think He allowed like 8 goals that night.  

 

80s game was differ ent. OV imho is the best goal scorer. 

Mogilnyhad 86 one year.  NHL changed the game because Euros were coming to NHL with speed and skill. Sellane had 76 in his rookie season. 

 

Nhl changed the rules and clutch and grab hook and grab bigger goalie pads big goalie equipment smaller offensive zone by moving the blue line in was all by design because Gretzkys single season goals record of 92 goals was going to get broken.

 

Last few years of Gretzkys career he barely got touched.  

Other skaters had too much respect for him. 

Gretzky told Wally (his dad) that the new kids were just so fast strong and skilled. 

 

I think OV plays and tries to break the record..  800+ for sure. He might get 900. NHL is opening up and becoming more offensive again. 

 

Hes a beast..  lays hits 235 6'3. He's not only the best goal scorer ever he's also the best power forward of his generation. 

 

 

[WHL rocks]

On 12/18/2018 at 4:27 PM, MikeBossy said:

Imagine what Bossy could have done had he not had the back injury - still unbelievable that he had 9 consecutive 50 goal seasons. And played the game with class - hence why he's my all time fav. I think (and really hope) Ovi breaks Gretzky's record. He is a true gift to the game!!!

Do you see Boeser game more like Bossys? 

 

Im interested to know your opinion. 

 

Boeser has that shot Bossy had..  but Boeser obviously isn't there just asking your opinion on their game 

[MikeBossy]

9 hours ago, WHL rocks said:

Do you see Boeser game more like Bossys? 

 

Im interested to know your opinion. 

 

Boeser has that shot Bossy had..  but Boeser obviously isn't there just asking your opinion on their game 

You know I had the chance to watch Boeser play when I was in Winnipeg and he scored with a wicked wrist shot and right then he did remind me of Bossy. He plays the game much the same way and he also plays a clean game like Bossy did so I would have to say early on he does remind me of him. So happy we have Boeser on our team.