Playoffs, could it happen?

[Samgagner'sface]

Playoffs could happen 

[EagleShield]

We came very close to throwing away a 5-0 lead against Ottawa. Playoffs would be a bloodbath.

[_Mark]

On the face of it, just 4 points out as of tonight, it looks like they have a chance but I can't see any way they get in.

 

If any one of Ari, Min, Col, or Chi play a game or two above .500 the rest of the way (basically a certainty), the lowest the bar will be is around 87 points. I personally think 89-91 is more realistic. So the Canucks would need to finish like 7-0-1 to have a shot. It's great that they're still playing meaningful games and I really like that they haven't quit but it's just too many points to make up. Still, I'll be watching on Saturday hoping they can keep the dream alive for another day. 

 

 

[DownUndaCanuck]

We practically have to win 6 or 7 out of the last 8 games, and we're playing top teams and bottom teams several times. 

 

It's possible but unlikely. I think we'll sadly finish 2 or 3 pts short.

 

On the plus side, this is what management wanted - the Canucks to be playing meaningful games in March.

[SingleThorn]

Looking at the schedule, we have 5 games in March. 2 x soft, 2 x hard, 1 x middling (....but all at home ). In April we're playing all 3 games against playoff bound teams who will be keen to get their 'playoff mode' up and running ! Don't see a post season happening in Van City !

 

Edit: Also believe that JB wants to get a look-see at a couple of rookies. This may weaken our defensive game.

[canacks1970]

I hear what your saying . But we already have a weaken defense with Hutton and Tanav on the selve. You might as well take a look at some of the rookies.

[RakuRaku]

As it stands...  just 4 points behind and the Coyotes have one game in hand.... sure, why not??

[Dombrova22]

43 minutes ago, Virtanen#18 said:

As it stands...  just 4 points behind and the Coyotes have one game in hand.... sure, why not??

Not gonna happen. 4 teams all in the race, all 4 need to lose and we have to win. We'll come within 2 or 3 points but fall short. 

[DownUndaCanuck]

All the teams in the playoff hunt seem to have a similar difficulty of opponents for the rest of the season. The only advantage the Canucks have is that the majority of the games remaining are at home, Edler is healthy and the players are all hitting top form and we're on a 3 game winning streak.

 

Anything is possible, especially if we continue to ride this current momentum. The Blues put together a monstrous point streak and aren't even in the conversation anymore. 

 

Realistically though the only way we make it in is if most of the other teams continue to hover around the 0.500 mark and we practically win out, or win at least 6 or 7 of the last 8 games.

 

If we only win 6 games, the other teams have to pretty much do worse than 0.500 for the rest of the season, if we win 7 or 8 then we have a tiny bit of leeway but not a whole lot.

 

Odds are against us but I think the next Sharks game will decide the season and we'll only just miss out...

[Odd.]

We need Florida to win against the Yotes. 

 

We also need Blackhawks to lose against the Flyers.

 

And as for tomorrow we need Washington to cream Minnesota.

 

We also need Colorado to lose against Dallas

 

Lets hope all of that happens today.

[cleowin]

1 hour ago, Odd. said:

We need Florida to win against the Yotes. 

 

We also need Blackhawks to lose against the Flyers.

 

And as for tomorrow we need Washington to cream Minnesota.

 

We also need Colorado to lose against Dallas

 

Lets hope all of that happens today.

If everything goes right for the canucks, by end of sunday, we will be tied for ARI for WC2, with same

games played

[Rindiculous]

10 hours ago, Odd. said:

We need Florida to win against the Yotes. 

 

We also need Blackhawks to lose against the Flyers.

 

And as for tomorrow we need Washington to cream Minnesota.

 

We also need Colorado to lose against Dallas

 

Lets hope all of that happens today.

Hawks and yotes lose, avs win.  Pretty decent night.  Now avs and yotes tied with a outsude possibility of Dallas falling off a cliff.

[Odd.]

4 minutes ago, Rindiculous said:

Hawks and yotes lose, avs win.  Pretty decent night.  Now avs and yotes tied with a outsude possibility of Dallas falling off a cliff.

Best case scenario Dallas and Yotes fall and us and Colorado take the wild cards.

 

I seriously don't want Avs bumming out again and then getting potentially 2 lotteries.

[Kevin Biestra]

1 hour ago, Odd. said:

Best case scenario Dallas and Yotes fall and us and Colorado take the wild cards.

 

I seriously don't want Avs bumming out again and then getting potentially 2 lotteries.

 

But it doesn't matter if Colorado wins the lottery and picks first overall.  If they miss they playoffs it's because these last 8 games of 2019 permanently created a fatal losing culture that will torpedo them for the next 15 years.

 

 

Right?

[Hindustan Smyl]

They won’t make the playoffs but there are a number of positives that we can take away from this season:

 

1) Depth is the key:  The Canucks are a Wildcard playoff caliber team when they are relatively healthy.  Where they freefall is when they have a key injury of some kind.  This will change in time as we accumulate more prospects and organizational depth.  

 

2) We are set down the middle, in net, and on left D.   Both short term and long term, we should be set in all three of these positions.

 

We won’t make the playoffs this season unless we win ever game from here on out (which likely won’t happen), but there are lots of positives that can be taken away here.

 

#SignDucheneAndMyers

[VIC_CITY]

2 hours ago, Hindustan Smyl said:

They won’t make the playoffs but there are a number of positives that we can take away from this season:

 

1) Depth is the key:  The Canucks are a Wildcard playoff caliber team when they are relatively healthy.  Where they freefall is when they have a key injury of some kind.  This will change in time as we accumulate more prospects and organizational depth.  

 

2) We are set down the middle, in net, and on left D.   Both short term and long term, we should be set in all three of these positions.

 

We won’t make the playoffs this season unless we win ever game from here on out (which likely won’t happen), but there are lots of positives that can be taken away here.

 

#SignDucheneAndMyers

I agree with most of what you said up until the sign Duchene part. You were right when you originally said we were set up the middle. I want Gaudette to be given 3C duties right out of camp next season. If we can some how rid of Sutter and his contract to free up some salary, that would be ideal.

 

We need 1 more dynamic winger and 1 more top 4 defenseman to compliment Edler, Tanev, Hughes, Stetcher and Hutton. Juolevi and/or Woo may eventually be that guy but we need as many legit defensemen as we can get.

 

I'd think twice about Tyler Myers though. He'd be a nice addition but I don't think we're ready to hand out another 6+ year deal. Especially to a guy that isn't a bonafide 1st pairing defensman.

 

Look for Benning to target the trade market. Either that or blow his wad on Karlsson lol. It's a coin toss really. We've never had a true #1 defenseman and I can see Benning making a big move this offseason, essentially putting his job on the line.

[Hindustan Smyl]

36 minutes ago, VIC_CITY said:

I agree with most of what you said up until the sign Duchene part. You were right when you originally said we were set up the middle. I want Gaudette to be given 3C duties right out of camp next season. If we can some how rid of Sutter and his contract to free up some salary, that would be ideal.

 

We need 1 more dynamic winger and 1 more top 4 defenseman to compliment Edler, Tanev, Hughes, Stetcher and Hutton. Juolevi and/or Woo may eventually be that guy but we need as many legit defensemen as we can get.

 

I'd think twice about Tyler Myers though. He'd be a nice addition but I don't think we're ready to hand out another 6+ year deal. Especially to a guy that isn't a bonafide 1st pairing defensman.

 

Look for Benning to target the trade market. Either that or blow his wad on Karlsson lol. It's a coin toss really. We've never had a true #1 defenseman and I can see Benning making a big move this offseason, essentially putting his job on the line.

 

I’m actually in the minority with regards to wanting to sign Karlsson:

 

1) He’s becoming injury prone.

2) Signing him up at 10.5-11 million will eliminate any chance of our core players taking a discount of any kind (ie look at what’s going on in Toronto now, thanks to the Tavares signing).

3) Although the Canucks need more top end talent in order to become a contender, I believe that depth is a bigger factor for them.....and has been their biggest hindrance over these past 4 years in terms of not being able to make the playoffs.  That’s why I would actually prefer it if we attempted to sign both Duchene and Myers as opposed to blowing out wad on Karlsson.

[Grape]

Say we earn 14 out of 16 points from the last 8 games.

 

With 14 out of 16 points, we'll need both COL and ARI to have 9 or less points in their last eight games, and MIN to have 10 or less points in their last eight games to make playoffs.

 

Even if we win 7/8, we need all of the above to happen which is probably around a 20% probability. 

 

It looks enticing that we're only 4 points out of a playoff spot. However, gotta keep in mind that there's 2 teams that are 4 points ahead, and 1 team that is 3 points ahead, and all of them have to falter in order for us to be in the playoffs.

 

Given that we generally lose more than we win, but also that we're on a hot streak, I'll roughly set the probability of winning each of the next 8 games as 50% or .50 (ignoring if we're playing good or bad teams)

 

Calculating: (8 choose 1)(0.5)^7(0.5)^1 gives a probability of 0.03125 or 3.125% to win 7 of the next 8 games. If you multiply that by the probability of all the conditions above happening (for COL, ARI, and MIN): 0.03125 * 0.20, you get a 0.625% chance of being in the playoffs. If you add the slight probability of winning all 8 games (and multiply it by the probability that we'd be in the playoffs in that situation which is about 50%), you'd come to around a 0.825% chance of making the playoffs.

 

SO IN CONCLUSION THERE'S PROBABLY LESS THAN A 1% POSSIBILITY OF MAKING THE PLAYOFFS.

 

Lol my bad I know I'm being a nerd but I can't sleep so I decided to do this. If I did something wrong feel free to point out. The probabilities are approximate obviously but the calculations should be exact.

[samurai]

I have the power to see into the future.  I don't like to use it very much, but in this case I will.  In answer to the question the answer is no.  The team plays 500 hockey the rest of the way.  BUT we win the draft lottery and Nikita comes back and we make the playoffs next year.  

[khay]

16 minutes ago, Hindustan Smyl said:

 

I’m actually in the minority with regards to wanting to sign Karlsson:

 

1) He’s becoming injury prone.

2) Signing him up at 10.5-11 million will eliminate any chance of our core players taking a discount of any kind (ie look at what’s going on in Toronto now, thanks to the Tavares signing).

3) Although the Canucks need more top end talent in order to become a contender, I believe that depth is a bigger factor for them.....and has been their biggest hindrance over these past 4 years in terms of not being able to make the playoffs.  That’s why I would actually prefer it if we attempted to sign both Duchene and Myers as opposed to blowing out wad on Karlsson.

I agree that there are always concerns when signing a player to such a lucrative deal. But I don't know if we can label Karlsson as injury prone yet. He has played 71, 77 games in the two previous seasons. This is the only season where he will play below 70 games since his rookie year (minus the season that he missed due to Cooke foot stomp).

 

The second part about the discount. I think Matthews was always going to get what he deserved with or without Tavares. McDavid's 12.5 was the ceiling for sure but the question was the floor. Even without Tavares, he would have gotten at the minimum, 11 million dollars. I think Tavares sort of made things easier to get that number to be around 11.5. If Petey scores 100+ pts for the next two seasons, then whether we have EK or not, I don't think we can get him signed for anything below 10 mil anyways. 

 

I agree that we need more depth but prefer Panarin over Duchene and not sure about Myers. I just can't like Duchene. Talented for sure but whichever team he goes to, misses the playoffs. And Avs are going to add a top 4 pick in the next draft as well as Cale Makar pretty soon. Thinking about Duchene makes me sick in my stomach. Regarding Myers, he is actually more injury prone than EK. If the injury is not a concern with Myers, then signing him does make sense especially if we miss out on EK.

 

I think the UFAs that we should target are EK, Panarin, then maybe Myers. I doubt we will get EK or Panarin and my guess is we will have to overpay for Myers, like 7+ mil to get him to come here. The troubling thing about signing a UFA is that unless you are getting a top tier player, you never know how it's going to go in 1-2 years. Eriksson looked like he will be a 30 goal scorer playing with the Sedins but look what happened. I'd much rather sign a sure thing like Panarin at say 10 than to overpay for potentially injury-prone Myers at 7.5.