Playoffs, could it happen?

[Hindustan Smyl]

3 minutes ago, khay said:

I agree that there are always concerns when signing a player to such a lucrative deal. But I don't know if we can label Karlsson as injury prone yet. He has played 71, 77 games in the two previous seasons. This is the only season where he will play below 70 games since his rookie year (minus the season that he missed due to Cooke foot stomp).

 

The second part about the discount. I think Matthews was always going to get what he deserved with or without Tavares. McDavid's 12.5 was the ceiling for sure but the question was the floor. Even without Tavares, he would have gotten at the minimum, 11 million dollars. I think Tavares sort of made things easier to get that number to be around 11.5. If Petey scores 100+ pts for the next two seasons, then whether we have EK or not, I don't think we can get him signed for anything below 10 mil anyways. 

 

I agree that we need more depth but prefer Panarin over Duchene and not sure about Myers. I just can't like Duchene. Talented for sure but whichever team he goes to, misses the playoffs. And Avs are going to add a top 4 pick in the next draft as well as Cale Makar pretty soon. Thinking about Duchene makes me sick in my stomach. Regarding Myers, he is actually more injury prone than EK. If the injury is not a concern with Myers, then signing him does make sense especially if we miss out on EK.

 

I think the UFAs that we should target are EK, Panarin, then maybe Myers. I doubt we will get EK or Panarin and my guess is we will have to overpay for Myers, like 7+ mil to get him to come here. The troubling thing about signing a UFA is that unless you are getting a top tier player, you never know how it's going to go in 1-2 years. Eriksson looked like he will be a 30 goal scorer playing with the Sedins but look what happened. I'd much rather sign a sure thing like Panarin at say 10 than to overpay for potentially injury-prone Myers at 7.5.

 

My only concern with Panarin, is if he’ll “flake out” once he gets paid.  

 

This will probably come across as discriminatory/racist, but I have too much fear over “The Russian factor.”

 

One thing I like about Duchene is that he won’t cost nearly as much as Panarin, and he can also play both left wing and center.  Duchene’s presence would pretty much guarantee that we’d be quite strong at both left wing and center even with an injury.

[IBatch]

3 hours ago, Grape said:

Say we earn 14 out of 16 points from the last 8 games.

 

With 14 out of 16 points, we'll need both COL and ARI to have 9 or less points in their last eight games, and MIN to have 10 or less points in their last eight games to make playoffs.

 

Even if we win 7/8, we need all of the above to happen which is probably around a 20% probability. 

 

It looks enticing that we're only 4 points out of a playoff spot. However, gotta keep in mind that there's 2 teams that are 4 points ahead, and 1 team that is 3 points ahead, and all of them have to falter in order for us to be in the playoffs.

 

Given that we generally lose more than we win, but also that we're on a hot streak, I'll roughly set the probability of winning each of the next 8 games as 50% or .50 (ignoring if we're playing good or bad teams)

 

Calculating: (8 choose 1)(0.5)^7(0.5)^1 gives a probability of 0.03125 or 3.125% to win 7 of the next 8 games. If you multiply that by the probability of all the conditions above happening (for COL, ARI, and MIN): 0.03125 * 0.20, you get a 0.625% chance of being in the playoffs. If you add the slight probability of winning all 8 games (and multiply it by the probability that we'd be in the playoffs in that situation which is about 50%), you'd come to around a 0.825% chance of making the playoffs.

 

SO IN CONCLUSION THERE'S PROBABLY LESS THAN A 1% POSSIBILITY OF MAKING THE PLAYOFFS.

 

Lol my bad I know I'm being a nerd but I can't sleep so I decided to do this. If I did something wrong feel free to point out. The probabilities are approximate obviously but the calculations should be exact.

Soooo...we have a chance!?

[EP Phone Home]

3 hours ago, Grape said:

Say we earn 14 out of 16 points from the last 8 games.

 

With 14 out of 16 points, we'll need both COL and ARI to have 9 or less points in their last eight games, and MIN to have 10 or less points in their last eight games to make playoffs.

 

Even if we win 7/8, we need all of the above to happen which is probably around a 20% probability. 

 

It looks enticing that we're only 4 points out of a playoff spot. However, gotta keep in mind that there's 2 teams that are 4 points ahead, and 1 team that is 3 points ahead, and all of them have to falter in order for us to be in the playoffs.

 

Given that we generally lose more than we win, but also that we're on a hot streak, I'll roughly set the probability of winning each of the next 8 games as 50% or .50 (ignoring if we're playing good or bad teams)

 

Calculating: (8 choose 1)(0.5)^7(0.5)^1 gives a probability of 0.03125 or 3.125% to win 7 of the next 8 games. If you multiply that by the probability of all the conditions above happening (for COL, ARI, and MIN): 0.03125 * 0.20, you get a 0.625% chance of being in the playoffs. If you add the slight probability of winning all 8 games (and multiply it by the probability that we'd be in the playoffs in that situation which is about 50%), you'd come to around a 0.825% chance of making the playoffs.

 

SO IN CONCLUSION THERE'S PROBABLY LESS THAN A 1% POSSIBILITY OF MAKING THE PLAYOFFS.

 

Lol my bad I know I'm being a nerd but I can't sleep so I decided to do this. If I did something wrong feel free to point out. The probabilities are approximate obviously but the calculations should be exact.

Also the fact that the teams ahead have the tie breaker (with Chicago and Colorado) being the ones that don’t) so theoretically we need to not just be tied in points it’s more likely to have to be a point up on the teams to catch. So it’s a tough task to say the least. 

[Ghostsof1915]

2 of the last 8 games are winnable. Two is up in the air, but the next game and last 3 will be very tough. 

 

I find it unlikely that the Canucks will make the playoffs. But I think it shows the team is pointing in the right direction that it's playing meaningful games in March. 

The team has 1 more point than all last season, and still has 8 games to go. Considering all the doom and gloom at the end of the pre-season, the team has been

in the majority of games. With maybe 5-10 games they just weren't in it.

 

- An improvement to our defence.

- Progression by the players.

- Changes in the assistant coaching staff.

- More work on helping players handle the long grind of a season, and working hard on reducing injuries. 

 

Eliminating long losing skids and being more consistent will lead to success. 

The future is looking brighter. And unlike Edmonton, the team has a measure of stability. And direction. 

Something that the haters can't seem to fathom, with their knee jerk reactions.  

 

[SingleThorn]

The next two games, against Calgary and a ticked off CBJ, plus the three April games are all tough wins. If we do win 4 or 5 of those games, we deserve to be in the post season. At the moment ( Fri 22nd March ) we're slotted to pick #9, assuming the lotto doesn't drop us a slot or two, which is better than the 16th we will pick if we make the playoffs. The difference from 9th ( 8th>12th by season's end ) and 16th isn't worth joining 'team tank' !

[oldnews]

Unbelievably...it could happen.

 

4 pts out of the playoffs is actually shocking - and at the same time, not as significant as b.s. percentages/odds or the rest of it could make it seem.

 

A couple consecutive losses by the few other teams in the mix - Arizona, the Avs (4 pts) - the Wild (3 pts) and all bets are off. 

 

 

At the same time, if they did make the playoffs....

They're without Sutter, Tanev, Roussel, Baertschi, Hutton....

 

It woul be an insanely impressive feat to make the playoffs - but with the roster that remains healthy....it would also be highly unlikely the playoffs lasted long...

If they were healthier I might be pulling harder for them to make it...

[Goal:thecup]

53 minutes ago, oldnews said:

Unbelievably...it could happen.

 

4 pts out of the playoffs is actually shocking - and at the same time, not as significant as b.s. percentages/odds or the rest of it could make it seem.

 

A couple consecutive losses by the few other teams in the mix - Arizona, the Avs (4 pts) - the Wild (3 pts) and all bets are off. 

 

 

At the same time, if they did make the playoffs....

They're without Sutter, Tanev, Roussel, Baertschi, Hutton....

 

It woul be an insanely impressive feat to make the playoffs - but with the roster that remains healthy....it would also be highly unlikely the playoffs lasted long...

If they were healthier I might be pulling harder for them to make it...

Quinn cleared MRI exam today.

Tryamkin knocked out of playoffs yesterday.

Tryamkin's agent coming up on 650.

Baertschi cleared to play.

Teves waiting in the wings.

Schenn looks playoff ready.

Pearson rounding into form.

Marky, EP, Brock, Bo, Edler, Stetch, Leivo, and even Ericksson playing really well.

Etc.

Maybe the stars are aligning.

[VIC_CITY]

10 hours ago, Hindustan Smyl said:

My only concern with Panarin, is if he’ll “flake out” once he gets paid.  

 

This will probably come across as discriminatory/racist, but I have too much fear over “The Russian factor.”

 

One thing I like about Duchene is that he won’t cost nearly as much as Panarin, and he can also play both left wing and center.  Duchene’s presence would pretty much guarantee that we’d be quite strong at both left wing and center even with an injury.

I'm pretty sure Duchene and Panarin will command similar contracts. Panarin is scoring at a slightly higher clip this season but Duchene plays C, so that should make up most of the diffrence.

[BertaNuck]

*

[BertaNuck]

11 hours ago, Grape said:

Say we earn 14 out of 16 points from the last 8 games.

 

With 14 out of 16 points, we'll need both COL and ARI to have 9 or less points in their last eight games, and MIN to have 10 or less points in their last eight games to make playoffs.

 

Even if we win 7/8, we need all of the above to happen which is probably around a 20% probability. 

 

It looks enticing that we're only 4 points out of a playoff spot. However, gotta keep in mind that there's 2 teams that are 4 points ahead, and 1 team that is 3 points ahead, and all of them have to falter in order for us to be in the playoffs.

 

Given that we generally lose more than we win, but also that we're on a hot streak, I'll roughly set the probability of winning each of the next 8 games as 50% or .50 (ignoring if we're playing good or bad teams)

 

Calculating: (8 choose 1)(0.5)^7(0.5)^1 gives a probability of 0.03125 or 3.125% to win 7 of the next 8 games. If you multiply that by the probability of all the conditions above happening (for COL, ARI, and MIN): 0.03125 * 0.20, you get a 0.625% chance of being in the playoffs. If you add the slight probability of winning all 8 games (and multiply it by the probability that we'd be in the playoffs in that situation which is about 50%), you'd come to around a 0.825% chance of making the playoffs.

 

SO IN CONCLUSION THERE'S PROBABLY LESS THAN A 1% POSSIBILITY OF MAKING THE PLAYOFFS.

 

Lol my bad I know I'm being a nerd but I can't sleep so I decided to do this. If I did something wrong feel free to point out. The probabilities are approximate obviously but the calculations should be exact.

You are a buzz kill 

 

[oldnews]

12 minutes ago, Goal:thecup said:

Quinn cleared MRI exam today.

Tryamkin knocked out of playoffs yesterday.

Tryamkin's agent coming up on 650.

Baertschi cleared to play.

Teves waiting in the wings.

Schenn looks playoff ready.

Pearson rounding into form.

Marky, EP, Brock, Bo, Edler, Stetch, Leivo, and even Ericksson playing really well.

Etc.

Maybe the stars are aligning.

You lost me at the bolded part.   Jk.  Schenn has been ok.

 

Those are all causes to be really interested in the rest of the season imo - but the playoffs - and you're talking a real 'optimist' here - I'm not all that 'optimistic' in spite of those young guys - because I think the team will really need Sutter, Tanev (and/or Hutton)....

Without those guys - it's a one scoring line team with Horvat's playing too much shutdown - and it's a RHD situation where Stecher is #1 - and then Biega has to eat tons of minutes, and Schenn...remains in the lineup.

Hey, anything is possible - and in particular I like the team's forward depth despite all the M.A.S.H. players - but I think they're a bit light on the hard minutes / veteran / shutdown side of the game and how it compromises the rest of the lineup.

Extremely optimistic for next year though.

[oldnews]

11 hours ago, Grape said:

Say we earn 14 out of 16 points from the last 8 games.

 

With 14 out of 16 points, we'll need both COL and ARI to have 9 or less points in their last eight games, and MIN to have 10 or less points in their last eight games to make playoffs.

 

Even if we win 7/8, we need all of the above to happen which is probably around a 20% probability. 

 

It looks enticing that we're only 4 points out of a playoff spot. However, gotta keep in mind that there's 2 teams that are 4 points ahead, and 1 team that is 3 points ahead, and all of them have to falter in order for us to be in the playoffs.

 

Given that we generally lose more than we win, but also that we're on a hot streak, I'll roughly set the probability of winning each of the next 8 games as 50% or .50 (ignoring if we're playing good or bad teams)

 

Calculating: (8 choose 1)(0.5)^7(0.5)^1 gives a probability of 0.03125 or 3.125% to win 7 of the next 8 games. If you multiply that by the probability of all the conditions above happening (for COL, ARI, and MIN): 0.03125 * 0.20, you get a 0.625% chance of being in the playoffs. If you add the slight probability of winning all 8 games (and multiply it by the probability that we'd be in the playoffs in that situation which is about 50%), you'd come to around a 0.825% chance of making the playoffs.

 

SO IN CONCLUSION THERE'S PROBABLY LESS THAN A 1% POSSIBILITY OF MAKING THE PLAYOFFS.

 

Lol my bad I know I'm being a nerd but I can't sleep so I decided to do this. If I did something wrong feel free to point out. The probabilities are approximate obviously but the calculations should be exact.

every year people formulate these over-thought (imo) rationalizations of probability.....

 

And every year there are unpredictable things that happen.  I think people overthink / 'analyze' these scenarios.

 

I mean - when you're talking about a 4 pt gap - you're talking about a two-game/win deficit - and it can be as simple as a few teams losing a couple consecutive games - and the entire formula becomes meaningless.   Literally 3 nights from now this team could be tied for a playoff spot.....

 

We'll know when we know - but to try to put a 1% on it isn't necessarily as 'rational' as the math might appear.

[Duodenum]

9 minutes ago, oldnews said:

Without those guys - it's a one scoring line team with Horvat's playing too much shutdown - and it's a RHD situation where Stecher is #1 - and then Biega has to eat tons of minutes, and Schenn...remains in the lineup.

 

 

Horvat's ppg increased with Sutter out of the lineup this season, from 0.654 to 0.833. 

 

 

 

 

[Goal:thecup]

Hockey Gawd is really rounding into a significant NHL center with a complete 200 foot game, offensive upside, and flat-out drive and is making it easier to do without Sutter.

Nobody is going to replace Roussel of course, but Gaudette, Motte, Beagle, Bulldog,  and maybe even Teves are all really good motors.

 

Even if we don't make the playoffs (say it ain't so, Joe), this run is very exciting and building team morale big time.

The wheels could always fall off and it is just too easy to predict like Negative Nelly or Chicken Little when the odds are so long.

 

But the hockey is great.  The team is really coming together and playing great.  Fans are really entertained.

This is just a whole lot of fun and we're not (mathematically) out of it yet.

 

If we do get in, we will be on one hell of a run and primed to keep it going.

We will probably get Calgary (I think) and will have most-likely beaten them recently (tomorrow's game should be great), so who knows?

 

[oldnews]

15 minutes ago, Duodenum said:

 

Horvat's ppg increased with Sutter out of the lineup this season, from 0.654 to 0.833. 

 

 

Pettersson's ppg dropped with Sutter out of the lineup from 1.2 ppg to 0.93.

 

What Horvat has done, in increased minutes - harder minutes - with depth forward wingers - on a team that doesn't have a single .5 ppg forward beyond EP, Boeser and Horvat - is very impressive.

Baertschi does not count - he has played 22 games - that largely / nearly entirely overlapped with the presence of Sutter.

 

If your point is to try to claim that Horvat alone is secondary scoring - you have a marginal point - if it's that there has been a secondary scoring line - it's a fail.

 

All you've pointed out is the anomaly - that Horvat has actually stepped up his game as the competition, workload/defensive load got steeper.

 

 

 

[rekker]

7 minutes ago, oldnews said:

Pettersson's ppg dropped with Sutter out of the lineup from 1.2 ppg to 0.93.

 

What Horvat has done, in increased minutes - harder minutes - with depth forward wingers - on a team that doesn't have a single .5 ppg forward beyond EP, Boeser and Horvat - is very impressive.

Baertschi does not count - he has played 22 games - that largely / nearly entirely overlapped with the presence of Sutter.

 

If your point is to try to claim that Horvat alone is secondary scoring - you have a marginal point - if it's that there has been a secondary scoring line - it's a fail.

 

All you've pointed out is the anomaly - that Horvat has actually stepped up his game as the competition, workload/defensive load got steeper.

 

 

 

Just give Bo the C already. 

[oldnews]

4 minutes ago, rekker said:

Just give Bo the C already. 

I wasn't certain at the start of the season....seeing the disposition that EP has - he looks like a natural born captain himself - thought it may make sense to wait and let the chips fall later.

 

But what Horvat has done this year is in/approaching Bergeron territory - not just a captaincy - but emerging as one of the best two way play drivers in the game.

[rekker]

21 minutes ago, oldnews said:

I wasn't certain at the start of the season....seeing the disposition that EP has - he looks like a natural born captain himself - thought it may make sense to wait and let the chips fall later.

 

But what Horvat has done this year is in/approaching Bergeron territory - not just a captaincy - but emerging as one of the best two way play drivers in the game.

Also, Bo has worked so hard on his faceoff prowess and it has paid off. EP is a leader as well and either would make a good choice. I love the emotion Bo brings to his game. His emotions seem very much in control on the downs which is very important for a captain. But when Bo is up he is way up which I like. One further point is both Bo and EP hate, absolutely hate losing. They can't even hide it. I still lean towards Bo for captain for sure though. 

[Duodenum]

40 minutes ago, oldnews said:

Pettersson's ppg dropped with Sutter out of the lineup from 1.2 ppg to 0.93.

 

What Horvat has done, in increased minutes - harder minutes - with depth forward wingers - on a team that doesn't have a single .5 ppg forward beyond EP, Boeser and Horvat - is very impressive.

Baertschi does not count - he has played 22 games - that largely / nearly entirely overlapped with the presence of Sutter.

 

If your point is to try to claim that Horvat alone is secondary scoring - you have a marginal point - if it's that there has been a secondary scoring line - it's a fail.

 

All you've pointed out is the anomaly - that Horvat has actually stepped up his game as the competition, workload/defensive load got steeper.

 

 

 

Glad you asked.

Roussel, Eriksson, Virtanen, Goldobin, and Boeser have all also increased their ppg with Sutter out. So no, it's not an anomaly. The anomaly is actually Pettersson, which makes sense as he started the year on a tear and has slowed as the season has progressed.

[oldnews]

1 minute ago, rekker said:

Also, Bo has worked so hard on his faceoff prowess and it has paid off. EP is a leader as well and either would make a good choice. I love the emotion Bo brings to his game. His emotions seem very much in control on the downs which is very important for a captain. But when Bo is up he is way up which I like. One further point is both Bo and EP hate, absolutely hate losing. They can't even hide it. I still lean towards Bo for captain for sure though. 

Yeah - I think Horvat has done his time, 'earned' his leadership role - learned from his veteran team-mates - and probably more importantly, his on-ice game is speaking for itself - louder and louder as he continues to develop.