BlastPast Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 With a few days off at roughly the middle of the season I thought I would take a look at the schedule: -So far (45 games) -Now until Feb. 25th trade deadline (17 games) -Home stretch (20 games) First , let's compare these three periods using three quick and dirty metrics to measure difficulty. -% of games @home -% of games Vs. playoff team (This obv. changes with some teams day-to-day but we will use teams in on this date for our purposes) -Average days off per game (Counts all non game days. Does not factor for travel/practice days) So far: - 42.2 % home games - 62.2% Vs. Playoff team. -1.11 days off/ game Between now and TDL -58.8% home games - 41.2 % Vs. playoff team -1.88 days off/game. (This is inflated largely by the hiatus and All-star break ; but still a day off is a day off) Home stretch: -60% home games - 50 % Vs. playoff team - 1.11 day off/game As you can see the next 7 weeks is an opportunity to pick up points but then the schedule toughens up somewhat to close out the regular season. As much as some might not be in the mood to talk playoff possibilities it is too early to completely rule out the possibility. That being said , the clock is ticking and points need to be earned in order to keep it in the realm of the prudently pursuable . First, let's look at the numbers and what needs to be achieved in order for that to be the case. Right now 88 points is the pace to occupy the final playoff spot in the west. This could obviously change between now and the end of the season and will need to be exceeded in order to be more confident but we'll use it as a benchmark for this analysis. The Canucks are currently at 44 points so will need a minimum of 44 more points in order to potentially qualify. That will need to be earned in the remaining 37 games , unless the league makes an exception and allows us to play more games to make up the points(they probably won't...stupid Bettman !). Is this doable? It will be difficult for sure. Between now and Feb. 25th there will no doubt be a lot of talk regarding the teams actions at the trade deadline but I think the team's performance (and most importantly points achieved) between now and then will ultimately dictate which way they lean. So what's the threshold ? If an 88 point pace gains entry and with a not that easy 20 game stretch left after TDL I would say(off the top of my head) at least 85 point pace would still put them healthily in the hunt . Substantially less than that and I think it becomes possibly more attractive to pursue TDL value and let the chips fall where they may as far as playoffs/ lottery odds. That means that in the next 17 games they need to earn 20-21 points to reach that pace. Every missed point between now and then is a nail in the coffin. All of this , in my opinion of course. I kind of just spewed this out so apologies if it's not exactly Shakespeare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whaleroad Train Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 To be (a playoff team) or not to be (a playoff team), that is the question - Shakespeare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the grinder Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckylager Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 I say we go the nobler in mind route: Continue to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous misfortune, and our opposition - end them. I don't think the Canucks "buy" at the deadline no matter where we are in playoff picture. I expect any trade made will be with long term success in mind. A playoff appearance this season would be a bonus, and a great experience for the younger players, but at this stage of the rebuild it's not worth sacrificing any futures for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaimito Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 As long they are still playing meaningful games in Mar I am OK if they dont make the playoffs. The players need to learn what it takes to get into playoffs during a long season. We took it for granted yr afte yr before 2012. Last few yrs they were out of it after Xmas. The new core needs to learn it. All the injuries and fatigue have exposed the team. The schedule has been a grind and it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Edmonton winning 1-0 against the ducks. If edmonton wins, day 1 results are perfect, and Van remains 1 pt back of a playoff spot. tomorrow: mtl needs to win, to keep minny 1 pt back of vancouver tuesday: boston needs to win, which will put minnesota with only 3 games in hand, sjs will have to beat edmonton to put them only 1 game in hand one point back wednesday: unlikely, but ottawa needs to win thuesday: Canucks need to win, need to avoid a 3 game losing streak, wpg needs to beat minny (3 game losing streak for minny), fla needs to win against edmonton, all this holds up, standings will be: WC2: Van - 46 GP - 46 pts 9th: Ana - 44 gp - 45 pts 10th: Min - 43 gp - 43 pts 11th: Edm - 44 gp - 43 pts minny and edmonton can get max one win each after today, and canucks still remain in playoff spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
189lb enforcers? Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Every year somebody takes this same 42-game marker initiative and the thread usually spurs all kinds of side discussions, which is fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flickyoursedin Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Appreciate the math and time spent on this post! I would never rule playoffs out as you’ve mentioned! However the no Pettersson for a couple weeks could also hurt our chances in keeping pace with the numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
189lb enforcers? Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, flickyoursedin said: Appreciate the math and time spent on this post! I would never rule playoffs out as you’ve mentioned! However the no Pettersson for a couple weeks could also hurt our chances in keeping pace with the numbers. Unless we fool ourselves, EP is the sole reason this team wasn’t a cellar dweller from game 1. Without him, this team is not a 500 club nor a playoff team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flickyoursedin Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, 189lb enforcers? said: Unless we fool ourselves, EP is the sole reason this team wasn’t a cellar dweller from game 1. Without him, this team is not a 500 club nor a playoff team. That combined with the expectation of Markstrom sustaining his top goalie in the league December play! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlastPast Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 Whether it's EP continuing to tear it up , Markstrom maintaining his form or more likely the team as a whole stepping up the fact is they need points to stay in the hunt. Even if they are still in it on Feb. 25th I would not expect them to be looking at short term rentals to give them a boost. The question is : if they are way out do they trade Edler (provided he accepts) ? I would think there would be a competitive market for him and could potentially fetch a substantial price. MDZ is another guy that they can maybe look to move although obviously for much less. Teams are always looking for defense depth at the deadline and I'm curious what their strategy might be . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGuardian_ Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 95 pts to make the playoffs 14 hours ago, Shaelon said: Edmonton winning 1-0 against the ducks. If edmonton wins, day 1 results are perfect, and Van remains 1 pt back of a playoff spot. tomorrow: mtl needs to win, to keep minny 1 pt back of vancouver tuesday: boston needs to win, which will put minnesota with only 3 games in hand, sjs will have to beat edmonton to put them only 1 game in hand one point back wednesday: unlikely, but ottawa needs to win thuesday: Canucks need to win, need to avoid a 3 game losing streak, wpg needs to beat minny (3 game losing streak for minny), fla needs to win against edmonton, all this holds up, standings will be: WC2: Van - 46 GP - 46 pts 9th: Ana - 44 gp - 45 pts 10th: Min - 43 gp - 43 pts 11th: Edm - 44 gp - 43 pts minny and edmonton can get max one win each after today, and canucks still remain in playoff spot. Needed to lose; Edmonton = 0 W - 3 L Anaheim = 0 W - 2 L Minny = 0 W - 5 L Dallas = 0 W - 2 L StLouis = 4 W - 2 L With no over times. Five teams with 2 wins and 16 losses with no overtime, no loser points. Not impossible. That is keep the status quo, no change in the playoff standings. I doubt it could happen but if St Louis wins 4 of their 6 in hand they could pass the Canucks. Show how fragile this team's make up is, one injury results in no goals scored with all but one player healthy. Should they even contemplate making the playoffs? The players may play to but should management plan that way? Planning that way means absolutely no selling at the TDL, handcuffing the team in negotiations, probably having a single injury and not making it resulting in #14 pick or worse making it and being supremely embarrassed when one single bottom six player runs them out of the arena again, (and it will all be the ref's fault...….again). 95 pts - they need to play at .750 rate, 51 pts in 38 games, to date they are 20 W - 25 L and a .489 point percentage and compete with 8 other teams for a spot. Once again the real question should be not Can they make the playoffs, be should they make the playoffs, for the good of the future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
189lb enforcers? Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 It will be more interesting when the Canucks take their break and the teams below them finally have a similar GP total. The Canucks have had as many as 6 more GP, typically 4 or 5 for a long stretch there, than the teams near or below them in the standings. This forum had all sorts of clap-happy postings during that stretch, prematurely gushing on the pole-position of this team’s trajectory, with only the haters/trolls and jerks mentioning the glaring disparity of the looming games-in-hand issue. It will be far more interesting to discuss playoffs and team success when each team has 60 GP’d, or so, right around the TDL - A deadline where JB must truely manage the roster and his PR expectations for the coming, hometown draft. IMO, the draft should be this year’s goal, not the playoffs, but I’m not charged with making money, only snarky comments in cyberspace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erkayloomeh Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 It would be a great experience for this team to make the playoffs. But if they dont. I kind of hope they miss it by a wide margin The thought of getting another top draft is just so tempting. After this year though I will be sick of losing and had enough The questions that plague my mind going forward are the year after year injury situation that seems to be an on going problem and the schedule. Would love to see the Canucks not only have a great roster but great depth in the A that when someone goes down they can have aequate fill ins. Seeing horvat constantly gassed is disturbing. He's the kind of guy that will carry this team in the post season once we get competitive enough to be an actual threat. Thanks to OP for the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlastPast Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 The purpose of this wasn't to advocate for or against the value or likelihood of making the playoffs but to show what realistically needs to be achieved to keep it in the picture. 88 points might seem light (and it is) but that is the pace needed right now . Most years 9X is required but a few years back Minnesota did get in with 89 iirc. This low standard has kept it anywhere close to achievable but there is still an inflection point where it goes from a longish shot to a pipe dream. These next 17 are a relatively cushy part of the schedule with a tougher 20 left after to gain any necessary ground so I wouldn't want to be too far out (at the TDL) to still consider it reasonably realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GritGrinder Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 I did the math on this on Dec. 20 so now is a good time for an update since Blast was nice enough to make this thread. On Dec. 20 the Canucks were 16-17-4 36pts. At the time 92pts was the WC in the West and I did my "projections" based on them needing 93pts. 45 games left on Dec. 20 so in order to get to 93pts the Canucks needed to go 26-14-5 to get the 57pts needed to be at 93 and likely one of the 2 WC's. They've gone 4-4 since Dec. 20. Jan. 7th the Canucks are 20-21-4 for 44 pts. Lets keep the 93pts WC threshold for the sake of this "projection". 49pts needed in 37 games. 23-11-3 minimum, so basically the Canucks can only lose a combined 14-16 games the rest of the way (give or take an OTL or 2). Other projections are below based on the WC being slightly lower or higher. 95pts--24-10-3 94pts--23-10-4 93pts--23-11-3 92pts--23-12-2 91pts--22-12-3 90pts--22-13-2 89pts--21-13-3 88pts--21-12-4 Worse case scenario (yes, other than the kids learning) would be to go .500 the rest of the way and finish with 81pts, no playoffs, no lottery and a pick in the 11-15 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canuck_in_england Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, GritGrinder said: Jan. 7th the Canucks are 20-21-4 for 44 pts. Lets keep the 93pts WC threshold for the sake of this "projection". 49pts needed in 37 games. 23-11-3 minimum, so basically the Canucks can only lose a combined 14-16 games the rest of the way (give or take an OTL or 2). Other projections are below based on the WC being slightly lower or higher. Yeah, we're not getting near that in my humble opinion. Here's hoping for trades for picks at the deadline, a high(ish) draft pick, for some more kids to make the team next year and a good shot at a UFA (def/winger) in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Hi Guys, yesterday was a perfect best case scenario for playoff hopefuls, today, we can hope for STL losing (not horrible if they win however) CGY beats Chicago (see STL above) LAK beats SJS (SJS losing more games with VAN having several games left against the Sharks is never a bad thing, LAK is completely out of it) **MIN MUST LOSE** - If Min wins, they will overtake Anaheim for the 2nd WC, although they still will only be a point above Vancouver, it's better for the teams below Vancouver to lose their games in hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rindiculous Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 21 minutes ago, BlastPast said: The purpose of this wasn't to advocate for or against the value or likelihood of making the playoffs but to show what realistically needs to be achieved to keep it in the picture. 88 points might seem light (and it is) but that is the pace needed right now . Most years 9X is required but a few years back Minnesota did get in with 89 iirc. This low standard has kept it anywhere close to achievable but there is still an inflection point where it goes from a longish shot to a pipe dream. These next 17 are a relatively cushy part of the schedule with a tougher 20 left after to gain any necessary ground so I wouldn't want to be too far out (at the TDL) to still consider it reasonably realistic. Really, I think the thing is that up to this point, the bad teams aren't really that bad. This makes the point spread less and lowers the point projections because the bad teams are taking more points from the teams in the hunt. This will probably become a larger spread as the year goes on with some teams going into a full on tank, but right now it looks like we could see some teams with an unusual low amount of points make the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Rindiculous said: Really, I think the thing is that up to this point, the bad teams aren't really that bad. This makes the point spread less and lowers the point projections because the bad teams are taking more points from the teams in the hunt. This will probably become a larger spread as the year goes on with some teams going into a full on tank, but right now it looks like we could see some teams with an unusual low amount of points make the playoffs. I won't be surprised if it only takes around 90-91 points this season to make it into the playoffs in the WC spots. However, the Central 4th & 5th spots are heating up and at the end of the season, it will probably be 5 teams in the central, 3 teams in the pacific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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