[Discussion] Brayden Point vs mitch marner RFA OFFER SHEET

[Monkeyking]

I wonder why are people forgetting about BP and jumping over him for the MM OFFER SHEET OR TORONTO story. TB don't really have the cap to actually pay BP , he would be a bit cheaper cost then marner and maybe a lot easier to acquire over.

 

8M X 8Y BP

vs

9-10.5M X 8Y MM

 

lemme hear what u guy think about.

and should vancouver try to hit on B.POINT 

[Goat James]

I wish, the NHL would be so much fun if GMs did this kind of stuff, but Benning is probably scared that if he offer sheets someone then it'll be open season on Pettersson in two years. 

[-AJ-]

There's an unspoken agreement that it's taboo to do offer sheets, but you have to wonder when some guy will come along and disrupt that.

[JeremyCuddles]

Point > Marner. One is a center, one is a winger. Point scores more, goals not points they are similar in point production. Point is defensively very capable and if I recall correctly kills penalties for Tampa. Point at 8mil, as is suggested in the OP is worth one 1st rounder, 2nd rounder and 3rd rounder. Whereas Marner is worth two firsts a second and a third. Based off the OP I'd take Point over Marner 10 times out of 10. Even if all things the same I'd take Point at 10mil over Marner at 10mil.

 

Also, I seriously think people over state how "bad" it is to offer sheet people. The reason most people don't bother is cause 9 times out of 10 the team can just match it. Very rarely do teams have RFAs and are unable to match any offers. We are getting to a stage where we are seeing teams being in spots where they can't necessarily match all offers.

 

I think Toronto could match pretty much all offers. They have 13mil in cap space, according to cap friendly maybe it's wrong, and they have 7mil coming off the books in Gardiner and Hainsey. That's not including the cap going up potentially. So, I doubt we see an offer sheet on him. And Tampa has 3 pretty significant contracts in Stralman, Coburn and Girardi coming off the books. That's roughly 11mil in cap right there so they can match any offers up to like 12mil on Point. So from that standpoint alone there's no reason for a GM to offer sheet either player when any legit offer will be matched.

 

Edit: Although I did not factor in Kucherov's cap going up to 9.5 next year when his new contract kicks in. Depending on where the cap goes to they might not be able to give Point 8mil. But I think even if the cap stays as is they might just barely be able to. I am too tired and lazy to do the math on that.

[DADDYROCK]

I want to see Toronto pay huge amounts of money to a few players then win absolutely nothing,get knocked out in two rounds in the playoffs and be crushed by the Cap Amounts going forward.

Just to keep them from buying a Championship.

[D-Money]

Tampa is in a bit of trouble for the next 2 seasons. The cap is projected to be $83M, and they're currently projected at $73.1M - less than $10M to re-sign Point, along with replacements for Stralman, Coburn, and Girardi...not to mention re-signing/replacing Erne, Paquette, and Martel. Then the following season they have Vasilevskiy and Sergachev, along with Cirelli, Joseph, and Cernak.

 

They will likely have to pay an asset to shed Callahan this offseason. He now has a LNTC with a 16-team trade list, and would probably happily go back to New York, so perhaps the Rangers agree for a decent pick/prospect. If that doesn't work, they may need to trade Miller. Either should free up enough room to sign Point and the other RFAs, along with replacements for Stralman/Coburn/Girardi (they might even have enough to re-sign one of them).

 

They have some long-term flexibility built in with the way they did their contracts. The year after (July 1, 2020) Killorn's NTC changes to a 16-team trade list. Then in 2021, both Palat's & Johnson's NTCs become a 20-team trade lists. And in 2022, Hedman's NMC becomes a 10-team trade list, and Gourde's NTC becomes a 23-team trade list. The whole time Miller only has a LNTC with an 8-team no-trade list (and even that doesn't start until next season).

 

My expectation is that Tampa will re-sign Point to the same 8-year, $9.5M contract they gave Kucherov, or just slightly below that. Although he could possibly get more, I imagine he'll want to stay in Tampa. No state tax, top team in the league, stable ownership/management, and a fantastic climate.

[timberz21]

Problems is Toronto and Tampa will match if it's anything close to fair value. In order to poach RFAs, you need to offer crazy money....11M$+ for these two, which will cost 4 x 1st rounder.

[khay]

2 hours ago, N7Nucks said:

Point > Marner. One is a center, one is a winger. Point scores more, goals not points they are similar in point production. Point is defensively very capable and if I recall correctly kills penalties for Tampa. Point at 8mil, as is suggested in the OP is worth one 1st rounder, 2nd rounder and 3rd rounder. Whereas Marner is worth two firsts a second and a third. Based off the OP I'd take Point over Marner 10 times out of 10. Even if all things the same I'd take Point at 10mil over Marner at 10mil.

 

Also, I seriously think people over state how "bad" it is to offer sheet people. The reason most people don't bother is cause 9 times out of 10 the team can just match it. Very rarely do teams have RFAs and are unable to match any offers. We are getting to a stage where we are seeing teams being in spots where they can't necessarily match all offers.

 

I think Toronto could match pretty much all offers. They have 13mil in cap space, according to cap friendly maybe it's wrong, and they have 7mil coming off the books in Gardiner and Hainsey. That's not including the cap going up potentially. So, I doubt we see an offer sheet on him. And Tampa has 3 pretty significant contracts in Stralman, Coburn and Girardi coming off the books. That's roughly 11mil in cap right there so they can match any offers up to like 12mil on Point. So from that standpoint alone there's no reason for a GM to offer sheet either player when any legit offer will be matched.

 

Edit: Although I did not factor in Kucherov's cap going up to 9.5 next year when his new contract kicks in. Depending on where the cap goes to they might not be able to give Point 8mil. But I think even if the cap stays as is they might just barely be able to. I am too tired and lazy to do the math on that.

I'd take Point over Marner too.

 

For us in the middle of a rebuild, we shouldn't give up anything more than 1 or at most 2 first round picks. Considering that and given that Marner will require offer sheet at 10M or upwards, I would not even bother with an offer sheet on Marner (4 first rounders).

 

If Point can be had for a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd (offer sheet at 8.1M), then it's a bargain. If he can be had for 2 1st, 1 2nd and 1 3rd (up to 10M), that's a fair price to pay for a premium talent at such a young age.

 

I'd throw an offer sheet at Point if it makes sense. I think Tampa will have a lot of trouble matching it. Considering that Tampa has salary structure where their two best players Kucherov gets 9.5 and Stammer 8.5, TB will try to fit Point in around 8 or less. Throwing an offer sheet at 9.5M or higher would definitely make it hard for TB to match. I don't think JB will do it though, but some other team might.

 

[hammertime]

4 hours ago, The Game said:

I wish, the NHL would be so much fun if GMs did this kind of stuff, but Benning is probably scared that if he offer sheets someone then it'll be open season on Pettersson in two years. 

we should have plenty of cap to sign Pete. As long as JB doesn't go out and sign Karlsson or any silly offersheet nonsense. 

[mll]

17 minutes ago, khay said:

I'd take Point over Marner too.

 

For us in the middle of a rebuild, we shouldn't give up anything more than 1 or at most 2 first round picks. Considering that and given that Marner will require offer sheet at 10M or upwards, I would not even bother with an offer sheet on Marner (4 first rounders).

 

If Point can be had for a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd (offer sheet at 8.1M), then it's a bargain. If he can be had for 2 1st, 1 2nd and 1 3rd (up to 10M), that's a fair price to pay for a premium talent at such a young age.

 

I'd throw an offer sheet at Point if it makes sense. I think Tampa will have a lot of trouble matching it. Considering that Tampa has salary structure where their two best players Kucherov gets 9.5 and Stammer 8.5, TB will try to fit Point in around 8 or less. Throwing an offer sheet at 9.5M or higher would definitely make it hard for TB to match. I don't think JB will do it though, but some other team might.

 

 

If 5 years of less.  The contract is divided at most by 5 to determine the compensatory pick even if the contract is longer.

 

[qwijibo]

6 hours ago, Monkeyking said:

I wonder why are people forgetting about BP and jumping over him for the MM OFFER SHEET OR TORONTO story. TB don't really have the cap to actually pay BP , he would be a bit cheaper cost then marner and maybe a lot easier to acquire over.

 

8M X 8Y BP

vs

9-10.5M X 8Y MM

 

lemme hear what u guy think about.

and should vancouver try to hit on B.POINT 

On the players current team can offer 8 years. Everyone else is restricted to offering 7 max a 

[JM_]

2 minutes ago, hammertime said:

we should have plenty of cap to sign Pete. As long as JB doesn't go out and sign Karlsson or any silly offersheet nonsense. 

we're going to have something in the neighbourhood of 33 mil in cap space next season, 50 after that, so we have room for EK no problem. Not that he's leaving SJS but its nice to think he might, money won't be an issue from our end. 

[Tre Mac]

I'd wait until we have Boeser and EP40 locked up before offer sheeting anyone.  Besides, Benning actually makes those 1st round picks count unlike his predecessor.  I know giving up four 1st round picks sounds like a lot, but it isn't if you don't know how to draft and I use Gillis as an example.  I'd happily give up Gaunce, Schroeder, Jensen, and Hodgson for an elite RFA.

[JM_]

4 hours ago, -AJ- said:

There's an unspoken agreement that it's taboo to do offer sheets, but you have to wonder when some guy will come along and disrupt that.

if its unspoken how do we know about it?  

 

I think its the massive compensation in most cases thats prevented a recent one, not any kind of GM loyalty tbh. 

 

But when might be now. A 5 year, 4 mil per offer sheet only loses you a 2nd round pick. TO can deal with that past next season, but for next season it creates real problems. 

[Rick Blight]

18 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

we're going to have something in the neighbourhood of 33 mil in cap space next season, 50 after that, so we have room for EK no problem. Not that he's leaving SJS but its nice to think he might, money won't be an issue from our end. 

We need to keep that $33M in perspective though.

Without the Cap going up we are currently about $30M under but that is with only 15 players under contract. Edler, Boeser, Demko, Leivo, Hutton, Motte and maybe Goldobin would fill 7 of the 8 open spots. If Boeser signs for $7M, Edler for $5M and each of the others sign for a minimum of 10% more than existing contracts, we would be eating up about $20M of that $30M. I think my salary projections may be somewhat low so the cap available may end up being somewhere under$10M even with the cap going up.

Factor in that we may have only 2 years till we have to re-sign Petey and Quinn for a total of $17 - $20M (or more) and we would have a very serious looming cap issue, particularly if we sign anyone of Karlsson's ilk to a long term contract. We would have to shed contracts like Eriksson, Sutter, Beagle, Schaller and maybe even Tanev  while replacing them all with ELC's to have any chance of making this work.

[therodigy]

If Tampa is able to shed Callahan's contract, they have a chance to resign Point. I don't think they'll bring Girardi back, but it's possible they find a way to keep Stralman (Maybe 4 at $6 million). I think by 2020, though, they may end up losing one of Palat, Miller, or Johnson for Cap reasons.

[JM_]

5 minutes ago, Rick Blight said:

We need to keep that $33M in perspective though.

Without the Cap going up we are currently about $30M under but that is with only 15 players under contract. Edler, Boeser, Demko, Leivo, Hutton, Motte and maybe Goldobin would fill 7 of the 8 open spots. If Boeser signs for $7M, Edler for $5M and each of the others sign for a minimum of 10% more than existing contracts, we would be eating up about $20M of that $30M. I think my salary projections may be somewhat low so the cap available may end up being somewhere under$10M even with the cap going up.

Factor in that we may have only 2 years till we have to re-sign Petey and Quinn for a total of $17 - $20M (or more) and we would have a very serious looming cap issue, particularly if we sign anyone of Karlsson's ilk to a long term contract. We would have to shed contracts like Eriksson, Sutter, Beagle, Schaller and maybe even Tanev  while replacing them all with ELC's to have any chance of making this work.

For sure, I think it would be a combination of things like that - but there might be another compliance buyout window coming with the next CBA. If that happens then its very do-able. Even without that we could retain on all those guys to make it work. 

 

For me, if you get the chance to sign a player like EK you do it, and then worry about the cap consequences later. I'd switch those problems with the problem of acquiring a true 1D any day. 

 

[naslund.is.king]

1 hour ago, timberz21 said:

Problems is Toronto and Tampa will match if it's anything close to fair value. In order to poach RFAs, you need to offer crazy money....11M$+ for these two, which will cost 4 x 1st rounder.

 

[NewbieCanuckFan]

1 hour ago, chilliwiggins said:

I think Gaunce is still worthy of an extension as he can be a good fit on our 4th line with Beagle and Motte.  At discount mind you.

What does Schaller offer over what you’d get out of Gaunce?

[IBatch]

7 hours ago, The Game said:

I wish, the NHL would be so much fun if GMs did this kind of stuff, but Benning is probably scared that if he offer sheets someone then it'll be open season on Pettersson in two years. 

It has been, the Penner offer sheet was ridiculous 5 million at the time and Burke took the picks and started and it started a few years of media wars between him and Lowe.  It was fun!  It would be like some GM offering 12 million for Point or Marner..