Provost Posted February 13, 2019 Author Share Posted February 13, 2019 55 minutes ago, canuckels said: I’m sorry sir provost provides very useful and timely updates to this forum. I just usually observe but I have been around for quite some time. Thanks for the post, I have been around for a long time here as well (since 2003). Unfortunately this Oldnews thing has been going on for some time. Normally I ignore him but occasionally I am dumb enough to engage. It started years back when he was slamming a couple of new members and being rude. I had the temerity to point out that he was factually wrong, and that randomly slagging people for posts wasn’t particularly pleasant. Since then he will literally search out weeks old posts I made on threads he hadn’t followed, commented, or reacted to, just so he could downvote or put a confused reaction to my posts. I a not sure how that comes across as anything but sad. Again, my fault for sometimes engaging him as that is clearly his intention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted February 13, 2019 Author Share Posted February 13, 2019 Just now, coastal.view said: a bit too simplistic he also costs us a roster spot who are you going to move off the roster (please provide the player name) a more established player? for a fringe pick up ? why?????? I didn’t say we should pick him up. I said that twice already including the post you quoted. I also said I don’t know where he would fit on our roster. I said “some” team might. Going back to my OP, to fit on our team, we would have to have another long term injury. With Sutter and Baertschi out, we already have Mcewan and Gaudette up. Say if Virtanen or Erickson went out, then that is a position where we would want to look at guys like Frk as a temporary alternative to putting Schaller back in the lineup or pulling another guy from the farm who is farther down the depth chart. The other alternative would be calling Gagner back up... and he might be better off in the minors as it is remotely possible someone takes him off our hands st the deadline as playoff insurance... and him already waived and in the minors is more valuable to a team close to the cap than him in the NHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal.view Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Provost said: I didn’t say we should pick him up. I said that twice already including the post you quoted. I also said I don’t know where he would fit on our roster. I said “some” team might. Going back to my OP, to fit on our team, we would have to have another long term injury. With Sutter and Baertschi out, we already have Mcewan and Gaudette up. Say if Virtanen or Erickson went out, then that is a position where we would want to look at guys like Frk as a temporary alternative to putting Schaller back in the lineup or pulling another guy from the farm who is farther down the depth chart. The other alternative would be calling Gagner back up... and he might be better off in the minors as it is remotely possible someone takes him off our hands st the deadline as playoff insurance... and him already waived and in the minors is more valuable to a team close to the cap than him in the NHL. sweet he reminds me of shinkaruk and maybe belongs in the ahl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Heffy Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 KHL bound. No sense in wasting a contract on him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted February 13, 2019 Author Share Posted February 13, 2019 23 minutes ago, coastal.view said: sweet he reminds me of shinkaruk and maybe belongs in the ahl Could be. it is a bit telling what opportunity can do for a young guy though. He and Goldobin had similar numbers last year and were fringe AHL guys with bits of time in the NHL. One guy gets to play on a top line with a superstar and feasts on secondary assists. The other guys doesn’t get that chance and ends up waiver fodder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingofsurrey Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 hours ago, oldnews said: That's ironic, considering Sutter had 11 goals and 25 points in fewer games while getting 22.6% ozone starts in a shutdown role. Goldobin has 25 pts in 50 games btw - not the same ppg as 25 in 68.....as you list my flaws lol. Alex fn Biega has 1g and 4a to match Frk this year - in fewer games (18).....maybe he's the answer to the powerplay unit. Your posts are where hockey knowledge goes to die. I don't want Frk or Sutter on my hockey club... Debate settled..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rounoush Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 4 hours ago, Tre Mac said: I like to buy a vowel. Best comment right here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RRypien37 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 The negativity on him here is hilarious. Guy had 11 goals + 14 assists in 68 games last year in his first actual season (would've been 30 points in a full 82 games). Decent size and still only 25. When given a decent amount of games he showed he can produce at the NHL level. There is no way he is "done" or KHL bound. Bet the same people downing him are the same that were calling Dylan Strome a bust at the beginning of the year before he got traded to the Hawks. People don't realize the amount of mental aspects point production can have at the top level. He very well may get claimed and can turn it back around from a slow start this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuckFather Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 3 hours ago, oldnews said: McDvd's new winger.... Too bad Chia Pet is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canuck73_3 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 45 minutes ago, kingofsurrey said: I don't want Frk or Sutter on my hockey club... Debate settled..... You're not GM and Sutter has value on this team no matter how much you and his detractors stick your heads in the sand. He may be expendable next season or the season after. But for now he's still a valueable piece of this team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 5 hours ago, Provost said: http://www.tsn.ca/1.1257105.1550078099 Dude is highly skilled but hasn’t put it all together, wonder what happened to his development. They aren’t exactly stocked with high end talent. Must be more to the story as he was waived by Carolina too. Not sure if we have the room for him depending on length of injuries, but a low risk pick up for some team. We could sure use some skill on a 2nd unit PP... I actually find the 2nd PP unit to be more effective than the 1st unit, they just lack the finish on their chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 hours ago, Provost said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 hour ago, kingofsurrey said: I don't want Frk or Sutter on my hockey club... don't need to ask what your hockey club is = to know that you don't need to worry about that happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted February 13, 2019 Author Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 hour ago, RRypien37 said: The negativity on him here is hilarious. Guy had 11 goals + 14 assists in 68 games last year in his first actual season (would've been 30 points in a full 82 games). Decent size and still only 25. When given a decent amount of games he showed he can produce at the NHL level. There is no way he is "done" or KHL bound. Bet the same people downing him are the same that were calling Dylan Strome a bust at the beginning of the year before he got traded to the Hawks. People don't realize the amount of mental aspects point production can have at the top level. He very well may get claimed and can turn it back around from a slow start this year. It does show how paper thin the difference between succeeding or not can be. Based on last year and their AHL careers, there isn’t a lot to choose between Frk and Goldobin. Frk has the better effort level and a better shot... Goldobin is a couple years younger and more creative offensively. If you give Frk the same opportunity and line mates Goldobin has gotten, and he probably has similar offensive numbers this year. Not saying he is some superstar, just that a lot of these guys are pretty marginal depending on the luck of the draw with organization and opportunity. It is why probably more first round guys succeed than should. They get the benefit of the doubt repeatedly and have some leash to develop, where a 4th round pick with similar troubles washes out and never gets the chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted February 13, 2019 Author Share Posted February 13, 2019 For those interested, this is a good write up about why offensive zone starts is not a good metric, especially when looking at it in isolation. It is really only measuring 10-15% of shifts. It ignores special teams, it ignores shifts starting on the fly, it ignores neutral zone starts. It is just taking the 5 on 5 shifts that start with a face off in either the offensive or defensive zone, which is a tiny fraction of the total shifts a player has. That means you are eliminating 85-90% of all a player’s deployment in the calculation. Extrapolating that very limited number to say a player has mostly hard or easy minutes... or that they are a mainly a shutdown player is just not accurate. That means the difference between a 40% and 60% oZone start is only a shift or two a game. https://www.nhlnumbers.com/2016/11/03/beware-of-what-zone-starts-are-telling-you-part-i-coaches-deployment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Strome Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 24 minutes ago, oldnews said: I'm not taking sides but you do use advanced stats to make your argument and then say they aren't important when discussing certain players on our team. But like I told you 3 years ago, analytics are a joke and I think the proof is out in the open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 hour ago, RRypien37 said: The negativity on him here is hilarious. Guy had 11 goals + 14 assists in 68 games last year in his first actual season (would've been 30 points in a full 82 games). Decent size and still only 25. When given a decent amount of games he showed he can produce at the NHL level. There is no way he is "done" or KHL bound. Bet the same people downing him are the same that were calling Dylan Strome a bust at the beginning of the year before he got traded to the Hawks. People don't realize the amount of mental aspects point production can have at the top level. He very well may get claimed and can turn it back around from a slow start this year. What's hilarious is how much other team's marginal waiver wire players get fluffed around here incessantly. Virtually every one of them are better than the Sutters, Granlunds and the rest of CDC's whipping boys of choice. Likewise, any D is better than Gudbranson, Pouliot, Biega....of course. Is Granlund still "only 25"? 9 goals with 38% ozone starts this year and yet, devalued 'hilariously' on these boards. Had a 19 goal season and then spent the next two years in a shutdown role - producing as much as Frk in the process...but if you listen to CDC, is junk. Pouliot "still only 25 yrs old"? Anyhow - Frk is a talented guy - a couple years ago I'd have been all for giving him a shot - but this team has more depth of youth - players like Goldobin and Motte that are a couple years younger - he's 25 years old and doing very little in some pretty easy minutes = does not bode well for him. Unfortunately the depth of talent around the league nowadays means that talented guys like him can nevertheless find himself on the outside looking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 19 minutes ago, Ryan Strome said: I'm not taking sides but you do use advanced stats to make your argument and then say they aren't important when discussing certain players on our team. But like I told you 3 years ago, analytics are a joke and I think the proof is out in the open. for example? Your point doesn't quite represent. What I point out is that advanced stats clearly have their limits - although useful - they need to be kept in context. And this case is a good example. Here's a player getting 68.6% ozone starts - which tells you something about the kind of deployment he's seeing in Detroit - and yet he has 1 goal (a powerplay goal) - and at 5 on 5 has yet to score, while having a corsi of 47.4%. Those arent' the kind of outcomes that keep a player in the NHL, even if he's "talented". That is useful information - within reason - that indicates that Frk isn't really producing, and moreover, isn't playing a shutdown role. You simply don't judge other players - who play matchup minutes, by the same production standards. And yet this team's shutdown forwards for the most part are outproducing Frk in considerably harder minutes. We can cherry-pick a player like Granlund's corsi (comparable to Frk's at 47.9%) - however Granlund's corsi comes in the context of 38.6% ozone starts = 30% lower than Frk - and nevertheless Granlund has 9 goals and 18 pts.... That is where advanced stats 'aren't important' - when they're abstracted out of context and tell you next to nothing - ie a singular, isolated metric. And another obvious counterpoint is Goldobin, Comparable ozone starts to Frk (67.6%) and comparable 'possession' numbers (49.9% corsi) - however, Goldobin has 25 pts in 50 games this year, whereas Frk has a goal and 4 assists in 25 games. Goldobin is also a few years younger - and as much as people may want to attribute all his production to Pettersson, that's simply reductive - Goldobin's creativity and playmaking are the least of his problems - it's his compete and his game without the puck that still needs work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted February 14, 2019 Author Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Ryan Strome said: I'm not taking sides but you do use advanced stats to make your argument and then say they aren't important when discussing certain players on our team. But like I told you 3 years ago, analytics are a joke and I think the proof is out in the open. I think there is a balance. i took a 2 year business certification called “six-sigma black belt” it basically uses advanced metrics in a business setting to make improvements. I really learned the usefulness and limitations of metrics. Without operational knowledge and experience, just analytics could be deeply misleading. On the other hand, there were times that we completely exploded enduring organizational myths that everyone “knew” to be true... but turned out to be verifiably false. A team would be dumb to completely ignore advanced metrics as it is a solid tool... but it would be very foolish to rely on them entirely and ditch all your scouting department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoosh Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Oh for Frk’s sake! I just had to, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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