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[Trade] Senators trade Matt Duchene, Julius Bergman to Blue Jackets for Vitali Abramov, Jonathan Davidsson, 2019 1st-round pick, conditional 2020 1st-round pick


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24 minutes ago, Spoosh said:

For a guy that wasn’t going to sign in Ottawa, and is on an expiring contract, I think that was a good return.

Yeah, I was laughing when it looked like all Ottawa was getting were a couple of B and C prospects but they got a 2019 first again, even if it's not a lottery pick, and could get a 2020 as well. So all in all, not to shabby. 

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I'm curious 

 

With Duchene suiting up tonight and the Jackets also playing tomorrow if this could be a let's see what they do moment regarding Panarin.  if they click do they keep Panarin, if they don't seem to generate any chemistry before Mondays TDL is that the go ahead to make some sort of hockey or futures trade with him?

 

kekkalainen isn't the GM I would think to rest on this.  His past moves show him to be willing to do just that, 2 game trial then go for it or make the move

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55 minutes ago, RonMexico said:

 

Confirmation bias guy says the Islanders are doing just fine without Tavares and nothing to show for him.

 

The NHL is getting closer and closer to the NFL style salary cap where you just cut your fading stars and move on. OFC the system is buoyed by draft picks being starters from day one but I think that most of the NHL is just scared to let their rookies play prominent roles out of the gate. The old mentality of 'they're not ready and need to learn the game' is hogwash and needs to go away.

because the vast majority of rookies are nowhere near as good as established veterans.  The whole system is upside down now, and not for the betterment of the league or for the fans, imo.

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1 minute ago, Warhippy said:

I'm curious 

 

With Duchene suiting up tonight and the Jackets also playing tomorrow if this could be a let's see what they do moment regarding Panarin.  if they click do they keep Panarin, if they don't seem to generate any chemistry before Mondays TDL is that the go ahead to make some sort of hockey or futures trade with him?

 

kekkalainen isn't the GM I would think to rest on this.  His past moves show him to be willing to do just that, 2 game trial then go for it or make the move

That seems a little too mad scientist I’d say they are going for it and to expect more additions.

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2 hours ago, HKSR said:

Doesn't matter what the Sens do at this point.  They lose this year simply because their 1st rounder lies with the Avs.  Poor Sens fans.

I disagree. That deal with Colorado is a loss. But that doesn’t inherently make this deal a loss. They got quite a bit for a pending FA. I’d say this is a very good deal for them.

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20 minutes ago, Spoosh said:

For a guy that wasn’t going to sign in Ottawa, and is on an expiring contract, I think that was a good return.

 

18 minutes ago, D-Money said:

The pick is lottery protected (top-3)

 

17 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Is that why the conditional 2020 first?

My take is as follows:

 

1. The minor league prospects in this deal do not move the dial at all. The look like C-prospects. Any of them would be doing well to become a replacement level player at the NHL level. So basically this deal is Duchene for a protected 2019 first round pick and a conditional 2020 first round pick.

 

2. It seems likely that Columbus is going for it this year and will keep their UFAs. Adding Duchene makes them very likely to make the playoffs but it is hard to see them getting to the SCF. They could be the favorite to i) get a Divisional playoff spot and ii) get through the Division and face a tough opponent from the Atlantic Division.

 

3. Beyond this year there are two meaningful possibilities to consider: Duchene re-signs with Columbus or Duchene does not re-sign with Columbus.

 

4. If Duchene re-signs, that means Columbus probably gives up two mid to low first round picks for Duchene. That seems like a good deal for Columbus as one elite player is much better than the expected value of two mid to low first rounders. But it depends on how much they pay fo re-sign Duchene. If they overpay, it could be a bad deal.

 

5. If Duchene does not re-sign, Columbus has given up a probably mid to low first rounder to significantly improve their chances of making a run this year. I would not do it, but that is probably about neutral in that a lot of teams are willing to make that deal.

 

6. This is a good deal for Ottawa. They were not going to re-sign Duchene and were not going to make the playoffs this year no matter what. So at least they recapture a first round pick for this year and have a good shot at another first round pick next year. If they could get something slightly better for Stone -- maybe a first this year and good B prospect, along with another conditional first -- they would be actually come out of this looking good, especially if they also get something good for Dzingel.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, N7Nucks said:

I disagree. That deal with Colorado is a loss. But that doesn’t inherently make this deal a loss. They got quite a but for a pending FA. I’d say this is a very good deal for them.

We'll see.  If that pick ends up being Hughes, they lost big time this year.

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20 minutes ago, TheRick said:

What the Sens had before they traded for Duchene was better then what they ended up getting for him!:picard:

Well, I hope so. They traded for 2 seasons of him. They've used 1.5 seasons of him, and are now trading a rental.

 

Even if their pick was much later, it should be a given that he'd eventually go for less if/when they traded him.

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7 minutes ago, stawns said:

because the vast majority of rookies are nowhere near as good as established veterans.  The whole system is upside down now, and not for the betterment of the league or for the fans, imo.

 

I think we are seeing a change from that.

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21 minutes ago, Canucks-12 said:

So the trade is basically Duchane for a mid-late 2019 1st. Lol.

 

I'm sure they would’ve had better offers if they waited few more days

Columbus is currently 13th in the league. They are just out of a wildcard spot (but have two games in hand). Columbus faces the possibility of needing to move Panarin and Bobrovsky which could hurt them down the stretch. If they fall out of the playoffs, suddenly Columbus loses a pick that has a chance (although small) to jump into the top 3. This is probably the highest 1st rounder they could've acquired for a player they had no intention of re-signing.

 

Columbus put themselves in a bind here because no they face the question of going all in this year or selling Panarin and Bobrovsky to mitigate the loss of this trade. Assuming they lose both these guys next year and decide to re-sign Duchene, they lose another 1st. Questionable if their team will be stronger next year without their former Vezina winner and leading scorer, so that pick could also be valuable. If Columbus chooses not to re-sign Duchene, then they paid quite a high price for a rental especially if they don't make the playoffs.

 

I think Ottawa did the best they could do here. They also got a couple of young project prospects and gave up a slightly older project.

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15 minutes ago, JamesB said:

 

 

My take is as follows:

 

1. The minor league prospects in this deal do not move the dial at all. The look like C-prospects. Any of them would be doing well to become a replacement level player at the NHL level. So basically this deal is Duchene for a protected 2019 first round pick and a conditional 2020 first round pick.

 

2. It seems likely that Columbus is going for it this year and will keep their UFAs. Adding Duchene makes them very likely to make the playoffs but it is hard to see them getting to the SCF. They could be the favorite to i) get a Divisional playoff spot and ii) get through the Division and face a tough opponent from the Atlantic Division.

 

3. Beyond this year there are two meaningful possibilities to consider: Duchene re-signs with Columbus or Duchene does not re-sign with Columbus.

 

4. If Duchene re-signs, that means Columbus probably gives up two mid to low first round picks for Duchene. That seems like a good deal for Columbus as one elite player is much better than the expected value of two mid to low first rounders. But it depends on how much they pay fo re-sign Duchene. If they overpay, it could be a bad deal.

 

5. If Duchene does not re-sign, Columbus has given up a probably mid to low first rounder to significantly improve their chances of making a run this year. I would not do it, but that is probably about neutral in that a lot of teams are willing to make that deal.

 

6. This is a good deal for Ottawa. They were not going to re-sign Duchene and were not going to make the playoffs this year no matter what. So at least they recapture a first round pick for this year and have a good shot at another first round pick next year. If they could get something slightly better for Stone -- maybe a first this year and good B prospect, along with another conditional first -- they would be actually come out of this looking good, especially if they also get something good for Dzingel.

 

 

Conference finals out of their division is a possibility.  But getting Duchene is like bringing a knife to a gun fight against Tampa.

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