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Who's our best defenceman without Edler or Tanev?


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Ugh, we need Eagle and Tan-man in this line up

 

Out of these remaining, they all offer different elements....

 

If I had to rank:

1a) Hutty ( all rounder, still improving)

1b) Stech ( all rounder with a non-stop motor)

3) Gud ( monster, xfactor)

4) Beiga ( size of the fight in the dog)

.

.

7) Pouliot ( PP guy that can't get it sorted, can't rank him higher than 7 out 5 <_<)

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Well since you have to factor in injuries... Stecher is our best D even counting those guys.

 

I made a thread about this a few days ago and how I think Stecher has surpassed Tanev.

 

Edler is clearly the best when he is healthy, but missing 20 games a year isn’t something you can deal with for your #1 D and expect to have success.

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Pity Pettersson wasn't a choice -  he would be a clear #1 if he were a defenseman.

But Stetcher brings almost everything - has wheels, dekes, hits, compete level. Just lacks height and a killer shot.  But he is working on the latter, can't do much about the former

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3 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

Hutty has stepped it up for sure, but had to go Stecher on this one, partly because it always seems harder to find right side depth. 

 

3 hours ago, combover said:

Stecher the best dman even with those guys. 

 

 

42 minutes ago, Provost said:

Well since you have to factor in injuries... Stecher is our best D even counting those guys.

 

I made a thread about this a few days ago and how I think Stecher has surpassed Tanev.

 

Edler is clearly the best when he is healthy, but missing 20 games a year isn’t something you can deal with for your #1 D and expect to have success.

Decided to look at the numbers. By my interpretation, Stecher is the best D outside of Tanev and Edler and it is not that close, although Hutton has made a lot of progress.

 

Here are some numbers to consider. I admit that you can always "cherry-pick" with numbers and that quality of competition (QC) and quality of team-mates (QT) are both important and hard to adjust for. But I have tried to pick important or interesting numbers and think about QC and QT.

 

1. At 5-on-5 Stecher leads the D in points per 60 minutes (PP60).

2. On the PK Stecher leads the D with 2.01 goals against per 60. The next best is Edler at 5.47.

3. His plus-minus of +14 leads the D by a big margin. Edler is next at +3. Some people correctly say that pluls/minus is often mis-interpreted. Others say it is meaningless, which is wrong. But +/- is strongly affected by QC and QT. Furthermore, it is hard to adjust for QC and QT. (Some people say that adjusting for QC and QT does not make much difference. That is also wrong. What is true that is that the measures commonly used for QC ant QT are very poor measures and therefore contribute almost nothing to correcting the numbers.) It would not be surprising to see a 3rd pairing D on a weak team lead the D in plus-minus -- because he is not out there against the McDavids, and Crosbys and Ovechkins and he often plays behind the team's top offensive line. Stecher did benefit from that early in the season. But he has been getting tough minutes for a while a now and very tough minutes recently and he still leads the team.

 

4. In terms of skills, Stecher is the best skater on the D. One consequence of that is that he leads the D by a big margin in penalties drawn per 60 at 1.22. The next best is Guddy and 0.88 and that is obviously for a very different reason (Guddy also takes a lot of penalties and gets involved in physical play.) Stecher does not take a lot of penalties either. In penalties drawn per 60 Hutton is only at 0.27. Stecher and Hutton are about the same in penalties taken per 60.

 

5. Stecher is also very good at defensive positioning and at zone exits. Maybe not quite as good as Tanev, but very good. Stecher is also a very smart player and a very hard-working and consistent player. For some reason Green seemed kind of biased against him early in the season but Stecher has gradually earned Green's trust and has become the go-to guy recently, with the highest TOI numbers and playing the toughest minutes. .

 

6. Admittedly, Stecher does not make a lot of hits, but he does make more hits per 60 than Hutton or Tanev. Also, he does not have a good shot, but no-one on the D does except for Edler.

 

7. One interesting stat is that Stecher takes a lot of hits per 60 (trailing only Biega). He is willing to sacrifice his body to make a play (as is Biega). And he has proven very durable despite that, partly because of good body positioning.

 

Bottom line: As I have mentioned before, if Stecher were 4 inches taller and 20 lbs heavier he would be viewed as a star. He is certainly the unsung hero of the team. As Provost says, you could make a case that he has actually passed Tanev. I am not sure I would go that far, but it is close.   Going forward, he is definitely part of the solution, not part of the problem. And all for a very reasonable cap hit (2.35 million). In terms of value per dollar he is far and away the best value on the D.

 

Hutton has made a lot of progress this year as well, but is not as far along as Stecher.

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3 minutes ago, JamesB said:

 

 

Decided to look at the numbers. By my interpretation, Stecher is the best D outside of Tanev and Edler and it is not that close, although Hutton has made a lot of progress.

 

Here are some numbers to consider. I admit that you can always "cherry-pick" with numbers and that quality of competition (QC) and quality of team-mates (QT) are both important and hard to adjust for. But I have tried to pick important or interesting numbers and think about QC and QT.

 

1. At 5-on-5 Stecher leads the D in points per 60 minutes (PP60).

2. On the PK Stecher leads the D with 2.01 goals against per 60. The next best is Edler at 5.47.

3. His plus-minus of +14 leads the D by a big margin. Edler is next at +3. Some people correctly say that pluls/minus is often mis-interpreted. Others say it is meaningless, which is wrong. But +/- is strongly affected by QC and QT. Furthermore, it is hard to adjust for QC and QT. (Some people say that adjusting for QC and QT does not make much difference. That is also wrong. What is true that is that the measures commonly used for QC ant QT are very poor measures and therefore contribute almost nothing to correcting the numbers.) It would not be surprising to see a 3rd pairing D on a weak team lead the D in plus-minus -- because he is not out there against the McDavids, and Crosbys and Ovechkins and he often plays behind the team's top offensive line. Stecher did benefit from that early in the season. But he has been getting tough minutes for a while a now and very tough minutes recently and he still leads the team.

 

4. In terms of skills, Stecher is the best skater on the D. One consequence of that is that he leads the D by a big margin in penalties drawn per 60 at 1.22. The next best is Guddy and 0.88 and that is obviously for a very different reason (Guddy also takes a lot of penalties and gets involved in physical play.) Stecher does not take a lot of penalties either. In penalties drawn per 60 Hutton is only at 0.27. Stecher and Hutton are about the same in penalties taken per 60.

 

5. Stecher is also very good at defensive positioning and at zone exits. Maybe not quite as good as Tanev, but very good. Stecher is also a very smart player and a very hard-working and consistent player. For some reason Green seemed kind of biased against him early in the season but Stecher has gradually earned Green's trust and has become the go-to guy recently, with the highest TOI numbers and playing the toughest minutes. .

 

6. Admittedly, Stecher does not make a lot of hits, but he does make more hits per 60 than Hutton or Tanev. Also, he does not have a good shot, but no-one on the D does except for Edler.

 

7. One interesting stat is that Stecher takes a lot of hits per 60 (trailing only Biega). He is willing to sacrifice his body to make a play (as is Biega). And he has proven very durable despite that, partly because of good body positioning.

 

Bottom line: As I have mentioned before, if Stecher were 4 inches taller and 20 lbs heavier he would be viewed as a star. He is certainly the unsung hero of the team. As Provost says, you could make a case that he has actually passed Tanev. I am not sure I would go that far, but it is close.   Going forward, he is definitely part of the solution, not part of the problem. And all for a very reasonable cap hit (2.35 million). In terms of value per dollar he is far and away the best value on the D.

 

Hutton has made a lot of progress this year as well, but is not as far along as Stecher.

 

nice summary, thanks. 

 

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Sautner was used on the second pair with Guddy all night. They were minus two but I liked what I seen. As Edler and Tanev return does he stay in the lineup or will Green stick with vets?  does he move ahead of Biega and Poo?

Hughes and Sautner?

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On ‎2‎/‎24‎/‎2019 at 1:32 PM, JamesB said:

 

 

Decided to look at the numbers. By my interpretation, Stecher is the best D outside of Tanev and Edler and it is not that close, although Hutton has made a lot of progress.

 

Here are some numbers to consider. I admit that you can always "cherry-pick" with numbers and that quality of competition (QC) and quality of team-mates (QT) are both important and hard to adjust for. But I have tried to pick important or interesting numbers and think about QC and QT.

 

1. At 5-on-5 Stecher leads the D in points per 60 minutes (PP60).

2. On the PK Stecher leads the D with 2.01 goals against per 60. The next best is Edler at 5.47.

3. His plus-minus of +14 leads the D by a big margin. Edler is next at +3. Some people correctly say that pluls/minus is often mis-interpreted. Others say it is meaningless, which is wrong. But +/- is strongly affected by QC and QT. Furthermore, it is hard to adjust for QC and QT. (Some people say that adjusting for QC and QT does not make much difference. That is also wrong. What is true that is that the measures commonly used for QC ant QT are very poor measures and therefore contribute almost nothing to correcting the numbers.) It would not be surprising to see a 3rd pairing D on a weak team lead the D in plus-minus -- because he is not out there against the McDavids, and Crosbys and Ovechkins and he often plays behind the team's top offensive line. Stecher did benefit from that early in the season. But he has been getting tough minutes for a while a now and very tough minutes recently and he still leads the team.

 

4. In terms of skills, Stecher is the best skater on the D. One consequence of that is that he leads the D by a big margin in penalties drawn per 60 at 1.22. The next best is Guddy and 0.88 and that is obviously for a very different reason (Guddy also takes a lot of penalties and gets involved in physical play.) Stecher does not take a lot of penalties either. In penalties drawn per 60 Hutton is only at 0.27. Stecher and Hutton are about the same in penalties taken per 60.

 

5. Stecher is also very good at defensive positioning and at zone exits. Maybe not quite as good as Tanev, but very good. Stecher is also a very smart player and a very hard-working and consistent player. For some reason Green seemed kind of biased against him early in the season but Stecher has gradually earned Green's trust and has become the go-to guy recently, with the highest TOI numbers and playing the toughest minutes. .

 

6. Admittedly, Stecher does not make a lot of hits, but he does make more hits per 60 than Hutton or Tanev. Also, he does not have a good shot, but no-one on the D does except for Edler.

 

7. One interesting stat is that Stecher takes a lot of hits per 60 (trailing only Biega). He is willing to sacrifice his body to make a play (as is Biega). And he has proven very durable despite that, partly because of good body positioning.

 

Bottom line: As I have mentioned before, if Stecher were 4 inches taller and 20 lbs heavier he would be viewed as a star. He is certainly the unsung hero of the team. As Provost says, you could make a case that he has actually passed Tanev. I am not sure I would go that far, but it is close.   Going forward, he is definitely part of the solution, not part of the problem. And all for a very reasonable cap hit (2.35 million). In terms of value per dollar he is far and away the best value on the D.

 

Hutton has made a lot of progress this year as well, but is not as far along as Stecher.

Hutton and Stecher are neither Offensive PMD nor are they stay at home, bone crushing, towering dmen either. They are somewhere in the middle of that and would probably not be playing if not for all the injuries and the lack of top 4 dmen on the team. I rate Biega slightly ahead of them and that's not saying much as Biega is a 7-8 defenseman who is filling in quite nicely for the short time he is needed.

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No D-man should be playing 25-27 minutes each night unless they're elite. Hutton and Stecher have been thrust into those minutes, because of the injuries to Edler and Tanev, and they have been good in a replacement role. Edler is a left shot and Tanev is right.

 

They aren't comparable if you want to keep the right shot left shot parings. Those 2 are injured so much, because they are willing to put their bodies on the line every time their skates hit the ice.

 

If you want those guys to be mentors for the young players coming up, then you have to understand the way they play and what they are willing to sacrifice to win every game.

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Stecher. 

By a long shot - on most variables.

 

Goal differntial = 2.6 on ice goals for per 60, 2.1 against (+.5 per 60)    Hutton 2.1 and 3.0 (-.9)  Pouliot 3.0 and 2.6 (+.4)

Aside from Edler, and with Gudbranson gone, Stecher has the most hits among the remaining D (72).

Best shot differential / 'corsi'.   50.9% with 51.2% ozone starts.

Turnover differential +11 with 31 takeaways and 20 giveaways.

 

By my own limited 'eye test' - the quickest minded of the remaining D (best decision maker with fewest mistakes and quick, intelligent defensive interventions), probably the most mobile (although Pouliot would give him a run for his money in skating ability imo), and the most effective at running the power play.  Also, importantly, he's a young RHD on a team that is wealthier in LHD prospects, so his emergence and arguable breakout is probably also the most important uptick for the team this year.

Stecher simply has the mindset that you wish a guy like Hutton possessed.

 

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11 hours ago, oldnews said:

Stecher. 

By a long shot - on most variables.

 

Goal differntial = 2.6 on ice goals for per 60, 2.1 against (+.5 per 60)    Hutton 2.1 and 3.0 (-.9)  Pouliot 3.0 and 2.6 (+.4)

Aside from Edler, and with Gudbranson gone, Stecher has the most hits among the remaining D (72).

Best shot differential / 'corsi'.   50.9% with 51.2% ozone starts.

Turnover differential +11 with 31 takeaways and 20 giveaways.

 

By my own limited 'eye test' - the quickest minded of the remaining D (best decision maker with fewest mistakes and quick, intelligent defensive interventions), probably the most mobile (although Pouliot would give him a run for his money in skating ability imo), and the most effective at running the power play.  Also, importantly, he's a young RHD on a team that is wealthier in LHD prospects, so his emergence and arguable breakout is probably also the most important uptick for the team this year.

Stecher simply has the mindset that you wish a guy like Hutton possessed.

 

By a long shot? Meh, his numbers are comparable to Biega. He is a plug who is filling a spot until we get top 4 dmen aside from Tanev and Edler.

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