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The Hart Trophy - 3/4 through the season


-AJ-

Hart Finalists at the 75% mark  

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We're now just over 75% done the 2018-19 season so I thought I'd take a look at who I thought would be the best candidates for the Hart trophy. There are usually three schools of thought when it comes to who should win the Hart trophy:

 

1. The player most valuable to his team regardless of how his team does

2. The player most valuable to his team provided that he actually helped his team be successful

3. The best player in the NHL, regardless of how valuable he was to his team.

 

I personally have no interest in the third school of thought and think it's just the wrong way to award the trophy, but I think the other two are both valid.

 

I did a bit of statistical analysis and calculated the players I think are doing the best to carry their teams this year and came up with a top three Hart finalists under both the first two ideas.

 

MVP to his team regardless of success:

  1. Patrick Kane
  2. Connor McDavid
  3. Nikita Kucherov

 

MVP to his team provided they had success (are currently in or close to the playoffs):

  1. Nikita Kucherov
  2. Sebastien Aho
  3. Sidney Crosby

Aho in particular I think is probably being a bit slept on for this award. He's well over a point-per-game and after Teravainen has to look to Williams as the third best scorer in Carolina. He plays over 20 minutes a night which is very rare for forwards.

 

I looked into defensemen next and the only two I think close to making a case are Brent Burns and Roman Josi. Burns is scoring at an absurd rate, but he also has Erik Karlsson to support him along with a strong cast of forwards. Josi has a weaker forward crew, but also has Ekholm and generally lower numbers than Burns. In short, I think both are great, but not Hart trophy-great.

 

I also looked at goalies, but none stood out as Hart candidates. Vasilevsky has the best stats, but his team is stacked, as we all know.

 

So, who are your three finalists as of now?

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pettersson pretty much single-handedly made this team a threat every time he's on the line up, with very little supporting cast. he's made the entire team around him better. the names you have mentioned have a pretty strong supporting cast already to reflect their numbers and how well, or competitive their team's doing.

 

to me, it's pettersson or kane. subtract them both on their team's and both teams are garbage, even if the hawks have jonathan toews, without kane, that team is a tire fire-- much like without pettersson this year, it's like last year and the year before-- taking two steps back. count in man games lost due to injuries, and having this guy in the line up, with what he can do, to keep this team competitive, even when other teams deploy everything they have to shut one guy down, because, with all the injuries this team had, to have no other offensive option, and to have that much of an impact on a game, i don't know how you can't show a little homierism for a second, and think, wait a minute, yea, this is the most valuable player on a very weak hockey team, and very deserving to their name thrown in

 

i get trying to be objective and not trying to sound like a total homer but facts are facts. this team is not hunting a wild card spot without elias pettersson. take out kucherov, and that teams not making it to the conference finals. oh boo-hoo

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43 minutes ago, Twilight Sparkle said:

pettersson pretty much single-handedly made this team a threat every time he's on the line up, with very little supporting cast. he's made the entire team around him better. the names you have mentioned have a pretty strong supporting cast already to reflect their numbers and how well, or competitive their team's doing.

 

to me, it's pettersson or kane. subtract them both on their team's and both teams are garbage, even if the hawks have jonathan toews, without kane, that team is a tire fire-- much like without pettersson this year, it's like last year and the year before-- taking two steps back. count in man games lost due to injuries, and having this guy in the line up, with what he can do, to keep this team competitive, even when other teams deploy everything they have to shut one guy down, because, with all the injuries this team had, to have no other offensive option, and to have that much of an impact on a game, i don't know how you can't show a little homierism for a second, and think, wait a minute, yea, this is the most valuable player on a very weak hockey team, and very deserving to their name thrown in

 

i get trying to be objective and not trying to sound like a total homer but facts are facts. this team is not hunting a wild card spot without elias pettersson. take out kucherov, and that teams not making it to the conference finals. oh boo-hoo

Well if that's the criteria you could say the same about Aho, or McDavid, or Eichel etc... All bubble teams that could bottom out if they didn't have their best player. 

 

The thing is that there are a lot of these players and that's no knock on Pettersson. The only thing that makes Kane stand out in this group is his insane level of production that is nowhere near the rest of the bunch, which then gives him legitimate consideration in the race. Kucherov I think deserves this, without him, the lightning - as you said, may not make the conference finals. That's a big difference compared to being the best team in the league with him. It's like saying Hank shouldn't have been MVP in 2010, or Danny shouldn't have gotten consideration in 2011 because without one of those guys the team can "still" make it to the second round, and that instead it should've gone to some guy on a bubble team who saved their team from being one of the worst.

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I think MacKinnon should be in the conversation.  He's currently 4th in league scoring and I feel like the Avelanchers would be lost without him.

 

6 hours ago, -AJ- said:

I also looked at goalies, but none stood out as Hart candidates. Vasilevsky has the best stats, but his team is stacked, as we all know.

Goalies are so hard to predict as Hart candidates.  It happens so rarely.  Although, I think you should have included Carter Hart.  The trophy is named after him.  :)

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If the Canucks make the playoffs Pettersson deserves to be in the running for the Hart.  Him and Markstrom (for 2.5 months worth of play) are the ONLY reason we're even in the hunt.  Last time I actually crunched the numbers mid January, Pettersson was directly or indirectly responsible for 13 game winning goals via direct scoring, assist, secondary or play driving which resulted in the GWG.  He was also the reason behind 7 successful tallies which lead to an OT point when the team was at risk of not obtaining a single point.

 

Effectively Petterson alone was responsible or indirectly responsible for up to 33 total points on the canucks season.  Should the team make the playoffs at all there is almost no question who deserves the Hart in my opinion out of the above mentioned players due to importance of their play./

 

Eichel and Sebastian Aho absolutely deserve credit as well, as without them Their teams are not in the hunt either.

 

The Hart is not the Richard, the Hart is not the Art Ross.  The Hart is the player who single handedly became the most fundamental reason for success for a teams season.  

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1 hour ago, Warhippy said:

If the Canucks make the playoffs Pettersson deserves to be in the running for the Hart.  Him and Markstrom (for 2.5 months worth of play) are the ONLY reason we're even in the hunt.  Last time I actually crunched the numbers mid January, Pettersson was directly or indirectly responsible for 13 game winning goals via direct scoring, assist, secondary or play driving which resulted in the GWG.  He was also the reason behind 7 successful tallies which lead to an OT point when the team was at risk of not obtaining a single point.

Agreed.  If the Canucks don't make the playoffs, then he shouldn't be considered, just like McDavid shouldn't (this year or last).  But if the Canucks do make it in, his performance (not just points) make a strong case.

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On 2/26/2019 at 4:03 AM, Twilight Sparkle said:

pettersson pretty much single-handedly made this team a threat every time he's on the line up, with very little supporting cast. he's made the entire team around him better. the names you have mentioned have a pretty strong supporting cast already to reflect their numbers and how well, or competitive their team's doing.

 

to me, it's pettersson or kane. subtract them both on their team's and both teams are garbage, even if the hawks have jonathan toews, without kane, that team is a tire fire-- much like without pettersson this year, it's like last year and the year before-- taking two steps back. count in man games lost due to injuries, and having this guy in the line up, with what he can do, to keep this team competitive, even when other teams deploy everything they have to shut one guy down, because, with all the injuries this team had, to have no other offensive option, and to have that much of an impact on a game, i don't know how you can't show a little homierism for a second, and think, wait a minute, yea, this is the most valuable player on a very weak hockey team, and very deserving to their name thrown in

 

i get trying to be objective and not trying to sound like a total homer but facts are facts. this team is not hunting a wild card spot without elias pettersson. take out kucherov, and that teams not making it to the conference finals. oh boo-hoo

This isn't getting enough confused faces tbh

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On 2/26/2019 at 4:59 AM, -AJ- said:

We're now just over 75% done the 2018-19 season so I thought I'd take a look at who I thought would be the best candidates for the Hart trophy. There are usually three schools of thought when it comes to who should win the Hart trophy:

 

1. The player most valuable to his team regardless of how his team does

2. The player most valuable to his team provided that he actually helped his team be successful

3. The best player in the NHL, regardless of how valuable he was to his team.

 

I personally have no interest in the third school of thought and think it's just the wrong way to award the trophy, but I think the other two are both valid.

 

I did a bit of statistical analysis and calculated the players I think are doing the best to carry their teams this year and came up with a top three Hart finalists under both the first two ideas.

 

MVP to his team regardless of success:

  1. Patrick Kane
  2. Connor McDavid
  3. Nikita Kucherov

 

MVP to his team provided they had success (are currently in or close to the playoffs):

  1. Nikita Kucherov
  2. Sebastien Aho
  3. Sidney Crosby

Aho in particular I think is probably being a bit slept on for this award. He's well over a point-per-game and after Teravainen has to look to Williams as the third best scorer in Carolina. He plays over 20 minutes a night which is very rare for forwards.

 

I looked into defensemen next and the only two I think close to making a case are Brent Burns and Roman Josi. Burns is scoring at an absurd rate, but he also has Erik Karlsson to support him along with a strong cast of forwards. Josi has a weaker forward crew, but also has Ekholm and generally lower numbers than Burns. In short, I think both are great, but not Hart trophy-great.

 

I also looked at goalies, but none stood out as Hart candidates. Vasilevsky has the best stats, but his team is stacked, as we all know.

 

So, who are your three finalists as of now?

The Hart trophy is pretty clear as to what criteria matters when it comes to voting, it’s not the best player (but often is) that wins it every time.  Gretzky would have had a few more if it was.  The Lindsay/Pearson award voted by the players embodies number 3, and is quite a validation given they play against each other and you’d think their votes mean more than some media guy that writes about it.  Naslund and the Sedins are the only Canucks to win this, it’s one of the hardest trophies to get period.  (Calder is the toughest).

 

The player deemed most valuable to his team AND a more valuable then all the other team MVPs...early on Gibson was playing his way into Hart consideration until the other foot dropped and ANA sank (and he is out, maybe for the a while).  I think Hall winning it recently says a lot on what the trophy means.  This year Kane is the front runner IMO, both him and Toews are having career years and have put the team on their back and pushing hard for both the playoffs and possibly another run (since December they’ve actually played a lot better than anticipated).  

 

Kucherov is a hard pick given the bounty of support he has, Points line takes a ton of heat off them..

 

Crosby is Crosby’, the most complete player in the league and still a super star, his Pens took a huge hit with possible Norris nominee Letang out...there’s enough hockey left for him to win it yet too.  

 

Markstrom has taken the horns and is playing his way into our team MVP,  if we make the playoffs and he doesn’t stop id bet he will garner both Hart and Vezina votes...would be something that’s for sure given until this year his play was more suited as a back-up then a starter.

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