Brogan Rafferty | D

[Kanukfanatic]

4 minutes ago, Petey Castiglione said:

Honest question, (not trying to knock your post) how many of these players were first year pros?

I would have to go and look.

 

But let us be clear here, Rafferty is a 24 year old.  That is a hell of a lot different than a 19 or 20 year old playing in the AHL.  Not totally sure what you point is.  It may be Rafferty's first year pro but he is way older than some players first year pro in the AHL.  OJ is 21 and this is his 2nd year in the A.

[Petey Castiglione]

10 minutes ago, Kanukfanatic said:

I would have to go and look.

 

But let us be clear here, Rafferty is a 24 year old.  That is a hell of a lot different than a 19 or 20 year old playing in the AHL.  Not totally sure what you point is.  It may be Rafferty's first year pro but he is way older than some players first year pro in the AHL.  OJ is 21 and this is his 2nd year in the A.

More curiosity then trying to make a point.  I don't think he'll be a top 2 defender but even though he's a 24 y/o rookie he's showing he has potential to be a top 4 D.

[Bure_Pavel]

14 hours ago, Kanukfanatic said:

It is positive that Rafferty is doing so well.

 

But the hyperbole here is really growing lol.  The leading AHL d man each year has not exactly panned out in the NHL over the past number of years. So people should temper their expectations if they think Rafferty will walk into the NHL and be able to play at that level.

 

2018/19  Aaron Ness - currently plays on Tucson Roadrunners

2017/18  Sami Niku - on Winnipeg Jets; playing low minutes on the Jets; 

2016/17  David Warsofsky - plays on Wilkes Barre/Scranton Penguins

2015/16  Ville Pokka - plays for Avangard Omsk - could not make the NHL after being a well hyped prospect

2014/15  Brandon Manning - plays for Bakersfield Condors

2013/14  Danny Syvret - plays for Nurnberg Ice Tigers DEL

2012/13  Torey Krug - Boston Bruins - 30 points so far in 2020  -- had 45 points when in AHL

               Sami Vatanen - New Jersey Devils - 22 points so far in 2020 -- tied Krug with 45 when in AHL

2011/12  Matt Donovan - Milwaukee Admirals

2010/11  Erik Gustafsson - Chicago Blackhawks - 18 points so far in 2020

2009/10  Derek Smith - plays for Medvescak Zagreb

2008/09  Cody Franson - plays for Avangard Omsk -- played 9 years in the NHL; an average of around 25 pts per year; high was 33 in 2013/14

2007/08  Joel Kwiatkowski - MODO hockey; played a couple years with a meaningful amount of games in NHL twice

2006/07  Sheldon Brookbank - played 5 or 6 years in NHL usually with 40 or so games or less except twice

2005/06  Andy Delmore - played about 3 years with meaningful amount of games in NHL 

 

I am just tempering my own expectations with respect to Rafferty.  There is not exactly a strong case to be made to say that top scoring AHL D men do well in the NHL.  There are a few examples above where it has turned out well but most times it does not.

 

I do hope Rafferty is just a bit of a late bloomer and can continue to get better and actually play meaningful games in the NHL.

 

But those slotting him in the lineup ahead of Stecher are 'stretching' it in my opinion.

 

Some factors that I think work in favour for Brogan is his size, skating, age, and pro experience. I think Brogan was touted as a late bloomer and has took a major step this year. He will need to take another major step next year as well or he could end up like most of the players on that list.Most of the players above probably lacked on the defensive side of things and from what ive heard he is fairly good defensively too.  

 

Can anyone who watches him regularly break down his skating?

Edited January 10, 2020 by Bure_Pavel

[Fred65]

34 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

Some factors that I think work in favour for Brogan is his size, skating, age, and pro experience. I think Brogan was touted as a late bloomer and has took a major step this year. He will need to take another major step next year as well or he could end up like most of the players on that list.Most of the players above probably lacked on the defensive side of things and from what ive heard he is fairly good defensively too.  

 

Can anyone who watches him regularly break down his skating?

All of this is true, there are no guarantee any player moves from the AHL to the NHL and succeeds. However Rafferty has done every thing within his powers to seperate himself from other prospects, not only in Utica but in the AHL. That's what he needed to do and that box has been ticked. He's put himself in contention. More than that I watched him pretty closely in the two games he played with Vcr at the end of last year and he looked comfortable and skilled to my eye. OJ has to do the same seperate himself from the flock 

Edited January 10, 2020 by Fred65

[iceman64]

On 1/10/2020 at 10:41 AM, Fred65 said:

All of this is true, there are no guarantee any player moves from the AHL to the NHL and succeeds. However Rafferty has done every thing within his powers to seperate himself from other prospects, not only in Utica but in the AHL. That's what he needed to do and that box has been ticked. He's put himself in contention. More than that I watched him pretty closely in the two games he played with Vcr at the end of last year and he looked comfortable and skilled to my eye. OJ has to do the same seperate himself from the flock 

OJ already did that by how well he did under Salo and just injuries got the best of him but when you see his skill level, you can see why he was high in the draft, was it unrefined? Yes, was it lacking defensely? Yes, now he's starting get going after just plain bad luck but he's overdue for a long stretch of healthy so see what happens, if he turns out to be top 4 as projected then it's still a win especially since we won't have to sign him for much until he's proven so not a bad situation.. Brogan, OJ, Woo, and Chatfield will fight for spots and top injury call ups when needed. Depth at D is something every team needs and that's not even bringing Train into the mix.. 

[Fred65]

11 hours ago, iceman64 said:

OJ already did that by how well he did under Salo and just injuries got the best of him but when you see his skill level, you can see why he was high in the draft, was it unrefined? Yes, was it lacking defensely? Yes, now he's starting get going after just plain bad luck but he's overdue for a long stretch of healthy so see what happens, if he turns out to be top 4 as projected then it's still a win especially since we won't have to sign him for much until he's proven so not a bad situation.. Brogan, OJ, Woo, and Chatfield will fight for spots and top injury call ups when needed. Depth at D is something every team needs and that's not even bringing Train into the mix.. 

He has some catching up to do and I hadn't noticed this before but in 30 games this year he has the same stats as in 18 games last year.

[Major Canucks Fan]

On 1/9/2020 at 7:32 PM, Kanukfanatic said:

It is positive that Rafferty is doing so well.

 

But the hyperbole here is really growing lol.  The leading AHL d man each year has not exactly panned out in the NHL over the past number of years. So people should temper their expectations if they think Rafferty will walk into the NHL and be able to play at that level.

 

2018/19  Aaron Ness - currently plays on Tucson Roadrunners

2017/18  Sami Niku - on Winnipeg Jets; playing low minutes on the Jets; 

2016/17  David Warsofsky - plays on Wilkes Barre/Scranton Penguins

2015/16  Ville Pokka - plays for Avangard Omsk - could not make the NHL after being a well hyped prospect

2014/15  Brandon Manning - plays for Bakersfield Condors

2013/14  Danny Syvret - plays for Nurnberg Ice Tigers DEL

2012/13  Torey Krug - Boston Bruins - 30 points so far in 2020  -- had 45 points when in AHL

               Sami Vatanen - New Jersey Devils - 22 points so far in 2020 -- tied Krug with 45 when in AHL

2011/12  Matt Donovan - Milwaukee Admirals

2010/11  Erik Gustafsson - Chicago Blackhawks - 18 points so far in 2020

2009/10  Derek Smith - plays for Medvescak Zagreb

2008/09  Cody Franson - plays for Avangard Omsk -- played 9 years in the NHL; an average of around 25 pts per year; high was 33 in 2013/14

2007/08  Joel Kwiatkowski - MODO hockey; played a couple years with a meaningful amount of games in NHL twice

2006/07  Sheldon Brookbank - played 5 or 6 years in NHL usually with 40 or so games or less except twice

2005/06  Andy Delmore - played about 3 years with meaningful amount of games in NHL 

 

I am just tempering my own expectations with respect to Rafferty.  There is not exactly a strong case to be made to say that top scoring AHL D men do well in the NHL.  There are a few examples above where it has turned out well but most times it does not.

 

I do hope Rafferty is just a bit of a late bloomer and can continue to get better and actually play meaningful games in the NHL.

 

But those slotting him in the lineup ahead of Stecher are 'stretching' it in my opinion.

 

That's some mighty fine research you have done there. Just curious, can you please do one on rookie AHL defenceman that ended up say in the top 5 or top 10 in defence scoring in their rookie seasons in the ahl? And how they went on to do in the NHL? Just a hunch that the list might look a bit more impressive. 

[BCNate]

1 hour ago, Major Canucks Fan said:

That's some mighty fine research you have done there. Just curious, can you please do one on rookie AHL defenceman that ended up say in the top 5 or top 10 in defence scoring in their rookie seasons in the ahl? And how they went on to do in the NHL? Just a hunch that the list might look a bit more impressive. 

I was scrolling through this page and was going to post the same thing.  Leading the AHL in D scoring is one thing,  Doing it in your 1st year of pro hockey is another.  

[Kanukfanatic]

3 hours ago, Major Canucks Fan said:

That's some mighty fine research you have done there. Just curious, can you please do one on rookie AHL defenceman that ended up say in the top 5 or top 10 in defence scoring in their rookie seasons in the ahl? And how they went on to do in the NHL? Just a hunch that the list might look a bit more impressive. 

Good point. After looking into it further the list is not any more impressive than the first.

 

Rookie AHL D men that were in top 5 (or so) D scoring in their rookie year:

 

2017/18

Sami Niku (2nd for D) - 21/22 yrs old; playing low minutes with Jets

 

2015/16

Brandon Montour (2nd for D)  - 21-22 yrs old; doing well in NHL

 

2013/14

Brenden Kichton (6th for D) - 21/22 yrs old; never heard of him lol; never made the NHL

 

2012/13

Justin Schultz (1st for D) - 22-23 yrs old; has done well in NHL after a rocky start

Adam Clendening (3rd for D) - 20-21 yrs old; meh

Torey Krug (4th for D) - 21-22; has done very well in NHL

Sami Vatanen (5th for D) - 21-22 yrs old; done well in NHL

 

2011/12

Matt Donovan (4th for D) - 21-22 yrs old; did not pan out in NHL

 

2009/10

PK Subban (3rd for D) - 20-21 yrs old; you may have heard of him

 

2008/09

Mattias Karlsson (4th for D) - 23-24 yrs old; went overseas to play hockey

 

2006/07

Nathan Oystrick (3rd for D) - 24-25 yrs old; did not pan out after minimal games in NHL; went overseas

 

Obviously this is just what happened to others rookies that were in the top 5 for AHL scoring for D men.  All the rookies that led the AHL in scoring (or top 5) and that did very well in the NHL were 20-21-22 years old when they did well in the AHL.

 

The few older rookie D men that did well in the AHL in terms of scoring did not pan out in the NHL.

 

None of this means Brogan Rafferty will not do well in the NHL.  It just tempers my expectations of him being able to become even a top 6 NHL defender.

 

I sure hope he does though. Our Canucks team could really use it!!!

 

Edited January 15, 2020 by Kanukfanatic

[Borvat]

Maybe he turns into this guy.  He wasn't overly impressive until he was about the same age - similar size.  We are due for one of these aren't we?

 

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/9012/duncan-keith

[Kanukfanatic]

19 minutes ago, Borvat said:

Maybe he turns into this guy.  He wasn't overly impressive until he was about the same age - similar size.  We are due for one of these aren't we?

 

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/9012/duncan-keith

That would be winning the lottery lol.

 

I hate keith...but would love for Rafferty to turn into a keith haha.  Very very unlikely.  But strange stuff happens.  Keith had already started playing in the NHL by 22 though.  Rafferty is 24.....

[BarnBurner]

Utica 5 Hartford 0 - End of 1st

 

Rafferty 1 G 2 A 

 

This guy keeps putting up the points.

[Googlie]

His shorty to make it 5 - 0

 

 

[48MPHSlapShot]

Holy $&!#balls

 

edit: @Googlie beat me to it.

Edited January 16, 2020 by 48MPHSlapShot

[cuporbust]

11 minutes ago, 48MPHSlapShot said:

Holy $&!#balls

 

edit: @Googlie beat me to it.

This kid might be something special. 

[Canucks Curse]

Just now, Googlie said:

His shorty to make it 5 - 0

 

 

that was ridiculously smooth, he made it look so easy, like the defence man was skating backwards win slo-mo

[Ray_Cathode]

On 1/9/2020 at 7:32 PM, Kanukfanatic said:

It is positive that Rafferty is doing so well.

 

But the hyperbole here is really growing lol.  The leading AHL d man each year has not exactly panned out in the NHL over the past number of years. So people should temper their expectations if they think Rafferty will walk into the NHL and be able to play at that level.

 

2018/19  Aaron Ness - currently plays on Tucson Roadrunners

2017/18  Sami Niku - on Winnipeg Jets; playing low minutes on the Jets; 

2016/17  David Warsofsky - plays on Wilkes Barre/Scranton Penguins

2015/16  Ville Pokka - plays for Avangard Omsk - could not make the NHL after being a well hyped prospect

2014/15  Brandon Manning - plays for Bakersfield Condors

2013/14  Danny Syvret - plays for Nurnberg Ice Tigers DEL

2012/13  Torey Krug - Boston Bruins - 30 points so far in 2020  -- had 45 points when in AHL

               Sami Vatanen - New Jersey Devils - 22 points so far in 2020 -- tied Krug with 45 when in AHL

2011/12  Matt Donovan - Milwaukee Admirals

2010/11  Erik Gustafsson - Chicago Blackhawks - 18 points so far in 2020

2009/10  Derek Smith - plays for Medvescak Zagreb

2008/09  Cody Franson - plays for Avangard Omsk -- played 9 years in the NHL; an average of around 25 pts per year; high was 33 in 2013/14

2007/08  Joel Kwiatkowski - MODO hockey; played a couple years with a meaningful amount of games in NHL twice

2006/07  Sheldon Brookbank - played 5 or 6 years in NHL usually with 40 or so games or less except twice

2005/06  Andy Delmore - played about 3 years with meaningful amount of games in NHL 

 

I am just tempering my own expectations with respect to Rafferty.  There is not exactly a strong case to be made to say that top scoring AHL D men do well in the NHL.  There are a few examples above where it has turned out well but most times it does not.

 

I do hope Rafferty is just a bit of a late bloomer and can continue to get better and actually play meaningful games in the NHL.

 

But those slotting him in the lineup ahead of Stecher are 'stretching' it in my opinion.

 

So, I looked up the first six guys on the list - three of them are 29. Two of them are midgets at 5’ 9”. Rafferty is 6’2” 192, and has 36 points in 40 games, that is a points per game of 0.9, none of those I checked have that. Rafferty is plus 19. One of them did have a five year NHL career. They are not really comparable.

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, Ray_Cathode said:

So, I looked up the first six guys on the list - three of them are 29. Two of them are midgets at 5’ 9”. Rafferty is 6’2” 192, and has 36 points in 40 games, that is a points per game of 0.9, none of those I checked have that. Rafferty is plus 19. One of them did have a five year NHL career. They are not really comparable.

It’s a big jump from College to the AHL.  Rafferty, even though he’s older (25?) is having a brilliant rookie season.  He’s on our team next season, and takes Stecher’s place.  Rafferty at 700 k is just a much better option for a bottom pair D man than Stecher at over 3 million.  

[Kootenay Gold]

2 minutes ago, Alflives said:

It’s a big jump from College to the AHL.  Rafferty, even though he’s older (25?) is having a brilliant rookie season.  He’s on our team next season, and takes Stecher’s place.  Rafferty at 700 k is just a much better option for a bottom pair D man than Stecher at over 3 million.  

I think that is one of the reasons that Rafferty replaces Stetcher on the 3rd pairing. The Canucks will no doubt be looking to trim down their cap hit before a number of the star players are looking for big raises in pay.

[Alflives]

3 minutes ago, Kootenay Gold said:

I think that is one of the reasons that Rafferty replaces Stetcher on the 3rd pairing. The Canucks will no doubt be looking to trim down their cap hit before a number of the star players are looking for big raises in pay.

And OJ will be in for Fanta.