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A Man in a Suit Walks Out of a Room with 15 Cards

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Bettman leaves himself wide open to criticism. I watched the draft lottery and an unknown man in a suit walked out of a room with a stack of 15 cards in a pre-determined order. We didn't get to see how the cards got into that order. Until the whole process of how the order is determined becomes public and transparent, I do not trust the system (e.g. I do not trust Bettman). And the winners are:....... 3 large American markets. And Bettman wonders why we boo him.

I am not saying the system is rigged. I am sure it is very honest and the accounting firm carefully scrutinizes the whole procedure. Why does it have to be done behind closed doors?????? The answer that's given is that it is a complicated and boring process that involves a lot of adjusting of ping pong balls and it's not suitable for a television audience with short attention spans.

In the 21st century, why are they still using ping pong balls? I'm not a computer programmer but I can envision a program that would be easier by using a random number generator (RNG). If a team has an 18% chance of winning, it's assigned 180 numbers; if it has a 16.3% chance, 163 numbers, 8%, 80 number, 1% chance, 10 numbers ...etc. Add up all the numbers then use the RNG to pick one number and that is the 1st pick overall. That team's numbers are removed from the system and the RNG determines the 2nd pick. The process continues until the 15th pick. It's not that hard and it would only take a short time to do. And it could be done in front of everyone.

I also believe the whole draft lottery system is unnecessary but that's a whole new topic.

 

 

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I watched this video of the ball draw yesterday, just after the draft lottery was televised.  Seems pretty transparent to me.

 

There are representatives from assorted teams around the room.  They all have sheets with every 4-number combination.  They all watch the balls get drawn.  

 

https://www.nhl.com/video/bettman-draws-this-years-lottery/t-277350912/c-67612803 

 

So the only way there could be a big conspiracy is if each and every person in that room (members of competing teams and the media) were all in on it.  Do you still think it's rigged?

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41 minutes ago, brokensticks said:

Bettman leaves himself wide open to criticism. I watched the draft lottery and an unknown man in a suit walked out of a room with a stack of 15 cards in a pre-determined order. We didn't get to see how the cards got into that order. Until the whole process of how the order is determined becomes public and transparent, I do not trust the system (e.g. I do not trust Bettman). And the winners are:....... 3 large American markets. And Bettman wonders why we boo him.

I am not saying the system is rigged. I am sure it is very honest and the accounting firm carefully scrutinizes the whole procedure. Why does it have to be done behind closed doors?????? The answer that's given is that it is a complicated and boring process that involves a lot of adjusting of ping pong balls and it's not suitable for a television audience with short attention spans.

In the 21st century, why are they still using ping pong balls? I'm not a computer programmer but I can envision a program that would be easier by using a random number generator (RNG). If a team has an 18% chance of winning, it's assigned 180 numbers; if it has a 16.3% chance, 163 numbers, 8%, 80 number, 1% chance, 10 numbers ...etc. Add up all the numbers then use the RNG to pick one number and that is the 1st pick overall. That team's numbers are removed from the system and the RNG determines the 2nd pick. The process continues until the 15th pick. It's not that hard and it would only take a short time to do. And it could be done in front of everyone.

I also believe the whole draft lottery system is unnecessary but that's a whole new topic.

 

 

Computer RNG's are not truly random. They are pseudo-random. That is, if you fix a seed in advance, you can duplicate the results. So it's even easier to fix the results if you rely on the computer's random number generators.

 

I think the use of the lottery balls is fine but they should make that process visible to the public. To be honest, it would be more fun to watch how the lottery balls turn up rather than some guy flip up the cardboard.

 

Television channels do broadcast lotteries so why don't the NHL do that as well? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, goalie13 said:

I watched this video of the ball draw yesterday, just after the draft lottery was televised.  Seems pretty transparent to me.

 

There are representatives from assorted teams around the room.  They all have sheets with every 4-number combination.  They all watch the balls get drawn.  

 

https://www.nhl.com/video/bettman-draws-this-years-lottery/t-277350912/c-67612803 

 

So the only way there could be a big conspiracy is if each and every person in that room (members of competing teams and the media) were all in on it.  Do you still think it's rigged?

Thanks for sharing the video. By the way, are the sequence of numbers assigned to each team also published? 

 

I think the NHL is missing out on a chance to make this much more exciting. Publish the sequence of numbers assigned to each team before the lottery. Then carry out the lottery on live TV so that the fans can check their team's number as the balls are picked one by one. Before the first commercial break, do the first overall pick. Then do the second overall pick. Go to commercial break and return for the 3rd overall pick.

 

TV rating will be higher if they do the lottery on live TV.

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7 minutes ago, khay said:

I think the use of the lottery balls is fine but they should make that process visible to the public. To be honest, it would be more fun to watch how the lottery balls turn up rather than some guy flip up the cardboard.

 

Television channels do broadcast lotteries so why don't the NHL do that as well? 

It is visible, just after the fact.  The video was posted on NHL.com.

 

I agree with you though.  I watched the video.  It's more exciting than watching cards flip.  My guess is, since the ball draw reveals the winner first, they probably feel it takes the drama out of it.

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Just now, khay said:

Thanks for sharing the video. By the way, are the sequence of numbers assigned to each team also published? 

 

I think the NHL is missing out on a chance to make this much more exciting. Publish the sequence of numbers assigned to each team before the lottery. Then carry out the lottery on live TV so that the fans can check their team's number as the balls are picked one by one. Before the first commercial break, do the first overall pick. Then do the second overall pick. Go to commercial break and return for the 3rd overall pick.

 

TV rating will be higher if they do the lottery on live TV.

I don't know about published, but every team rep in the room and the media rep all have the list.

 

In the past, we have found out that the Canucks missed out by one number, so maybe it does get released?

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1 hour ago, brokensticks said:

Bettman leaves himself wide open to criticism. I watched the draft lottery and an unknown man in a suit walked out of a room with a stack of 15 cards in a pre-determined order. We didn't get to see how the cards got into that order. Until the whole process of how the order is determined becomes public and transparent, I do not trust the system (e.g. I do not trust Bettman). And the winners are:....... 3 large American markets. And Bettman wonders why we boo him.

I am not saying the system is rigged. I am sure it is very honest and the accounting firm carefully scrutinizes the whole procedure. Why does it have to be done behind closed doors?????? The answer that's given is that it is a complicated and boring process that involves a lot of adjusting of ping pong balls and it's not suitable for a television audience with short attention spans.

In the 21st century, why are they still using ping pong balls? I'm not a computer programmer but I can envision a program that would be easier by using a random number generator (RNG). If a team has an 18% chance of winning, it's assigned 180 numbers; if it has a 16.3% chance, 163 numbers, 8%, 80 number, 1% chance, 10 numbers ...etc. Add up all the numbers then use the RNG to pick one number and that is the 1st pick overall. That team's numbers are removed from the system and the RNG determines the 2nd pick. The process continues until the 15th pick. It's not that hard and it would only take a short time to do. And it could be done in front of everyone.

I also believe the whole draft lottery system is unnecessary but that's a whole new topic.

 

 

They post the video later on of the balls being drawn it's completely random and done by KPMG; a 3rd, impartial, party. The league has nothing to do with it. 

 

The yellow highlighted is just beyond stupid. Balls that are randomly selected can't be manipulated. If you created a computer program based on code that no one could see you could easily write the code to select whatever number you wanted it to be. It would be incredibly easy to fix the lottery with that system.

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41 minutes ago, goalie13 said:

It is visible, just after the fact.  The video was posted on NHL.com.

 

I agree with you though.  I watched the video.  It's more exciting than watching cards flip.  My guess is, since the ball draw reveals the winner first, they probably feel it takes the drama out of it.

The problem with the balls is if the number 5 is drawn and your teams' number doesn't start with 5 you are out of it right off the bat. They will lose a lot of viewers/interest too quickly. The whole reason, I think, they went with 3 lottery winners is to keep viewers watching their draw until the end. If Chicago won the lottery at 12 there is no reason to continue watching or the show is basically over in 5 mins or if the lottery starts with 10 mins left in the hour you know someone won the lottery right off the bat. It's all about viewers in my opinion.

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2 minutes ago, peaches5 said:

The problem with the balls is if the number 5 is drawn and your teams' number doesn't start with 5 you are out of it right off the bat. They will lose a lot of viewers/interest too quickly. The whole reason, I think, they went with 3 lottery winners is to keep viewers watching their draw until the end. If Chicago won the lottery at 12 there is no reason to continue watching or the show is basically over in 5 mins or if the lottery starts with 10 mins left in the hour you know someone won the lottery right off the bat. It's all about viewers in my opinion.

Except... there are one thousand possible number combinations.  Each team is assigned a percentage of those combinations.  At a 5% chance, the Canucks would have had 50 different number combinations.  So it's possible every team would have had a number combination containing the first ball or two to be drawn.

 

But otherwise, I do agree.  It's all about the viewers.  However, I still think the viewers would prefer watching the number selection rather than a bunch of cards get flipped over.

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1 minute ago, goalie13 said:

Except... there are one thousand possible number combinations.  Each team is assigned a percentage of those combinations.  At a 5% chance, the Canucks would have had 50 different number combinations.  So it's possible every team would have had a number combination containing the first ball or two to be drawn.

 

But otherwise, I do agree.  It's all about the viewers.  However, I still think the viewers would prefer watching the number selection rather than a bunch of cards get flipped over.

Honestly, I don't even care anymore. Flipping or numbers its a crapshoot. I am fine just seeing the winners in a tweet.

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1 hour ago, mpt said:

If it was rigged, McDavid never would have been given to the Oilers

And LA wouldn't have dropped.  They would need the #1 pick more than Chicago and New York to keep hockey relevant while they rebuild.

 

Props to how New York handled the rebuild, amazing what can happen when ownership and management are on the same page.  Take notes Aquaman.

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42 minutes ago, KelownaCanucksFan said:

The system is fine, what they need to change is the eligibility of the draw, should only be the bottom 10 teams and a rule in place that you cannot draft 1-3 overall more than 2 times in a 5 year span

I say bottom 7 teams and you can only move up or down 2 spots.  At worse the 31st team would pick 3rd overall and the highest the 7th team could move up is 5th.  The lotto was put in place so teams couldn't tank for a specific generational player, there likely will never be a draft with three generational players. 

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And the thing is, why should we trust Bettman to not tell Daly to rearrange the cards before he comes out? If they want to gain fan trust back, if they ever had it, show the draw live. The fact they do it behind closed doors is enough reason to believe they draw the balls until they get the result they want. They obviously couldn’t give Chicago 1st so they gave them 3rd. 

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