The Case for UFA’s

[Provost]

On various threads I keep seeing people post that we need to stay away from top UFA’s and just be patient and draft players.

 

They have to do both and they aren’t mutually exclusive.  You don’t stop drafting, you just might have slightly later picks.

 

Once you clear out the random replaceable players on our roster, we have a ton of holes.  We also have no help coming for the top half of our roster any time soon.  Our closet prospects are MacEwan and Juolevi.  Neither is going to be a top player for quite a while, probably never. The next one up is likely who we draft this summer and he will be 2-4 years from playing meaningful minutes.

 

This is our roster after next season removing the debris and putting people where they should be on a good team.

 

XX-Petterson-Boeser

XX-Horvat-XX

Pearson-Gaudette-Leivo

Roussel-Beagle-Virtanen

 

Edler-XX

Hughes-XX

XX-Stecher

 

Where are those players coming from?  Trades will just means players out to offset ones coming in.  To draft them and have them develop to be ready we are already at the end of Horvat’s contract and would have wasted years of prime performance of him, Boeser, and Petterson.

 

Free agents have flaws, and are expensive... but many of them will be better than who we have now.

 

Panarin will be too expensive, Karlsson is  too old and has many miles on him even for his age, Myers and Gardiner are limited in terms of what they bring.  Lee is a very good player who will get money and term of a better player.

 

We should still try to get any of them.

Edited April 14, 2019 by Provost

[xereau]

Karlsson is tempting, that's for sure.

[Nucker 67]

Benning mentioned they want to get a winger for Bo's line. Considering the success Bo had with (LW) Pearson, I'm assuming it'll be a RW. Donskoi or Connolly could be decent and cheaper options. Or maybe Benning swings for the fences with Eberle. Nyqvist could be interesting too. Not sure what they'll do with Tanev and Hutton. Have to assume Pouliot is done as a Canuck. Can they stretch another season out of Baertschi, and play him with Pettersson? 

 

Baertschi - Pettersson - Boeser

Pearson - Horvat - Nyqvist

 

I think Benning will trade for a Dman. Maybe in a swap involving Hutton. He could also add another in FA. Hoping Tanev is traded at the Draft in a package for an extra 1st.

[Lancaster]

1 hour ago, Provost said:

Panarin will be too expensive, Karlsson is  too old and has many miles on him even for his age, Myers and Gardiner are limited in terms of what they bring.  Lee is a very good player who will get money and term of a better player.

 

We should still try to get any of them.

Just to put things into perspective... Erik Karlsson is only 4 years older than Horvat, 2 years younger than Sutter and just 2 years older than Pearson and Baertschi.  Just he's been around and been a prominent player for while, thus it feels like he's older than he actually is.  He has only played 50 (and counting) playoff games... whereas Doughty has played 80+ and John Carlson at over 100.  

[Provost]

3 minutes ago, Lancaster said:

Just to put things into perspective... Erik Karlsson is only 4 years older than Horvat, 2 years younger than Sutter and just 2 years older than Pearson and Baertschi.  Just he's been around and been a prominent player for while, thus it feels like he's older than he actually is.  He has only played 50 (and counting) playoff games... whereas Doughty has played 80+ and John Carlson at over 100.  

I think the 30 minutes a night has something to do with the miles.  Also, he is one of the few UFAs who would command a 7 year term... so age matters more.

[theo5789]

1 hour ago, NUCKER67 said:

Benning mentioned they want to get a winger for Bo's line. Considering the success Bo had with (LW) Pearson, I'm assuming it'll be a RW. Donskoi or Connolly could be decent and cheaper options. Or maybe Benning swings for the fences with Eberle. Nyqvist could be interesting too. Not sure what they'll do with Tanev and Hutton. Have to assume Pouliot is done as a Canuck. Can they stretch another season out of Baertschi, and play him with Pettersson? 

 

Baertschi - Pettersson - Boeser

Pearson - Horvat - Nyqvist

 

I think Benning will trade for a Dman. Maybe in a swap involving Hutton. He could also add another in FA. Hoping Tanev is traded at the Draft in a package for an extra 1st.

Interesting names for the RW opening. Eberle's potential looks good, but I'm only interested if he's willing to do a 2 year deal no more than 5 million a season. Donskoi seems more like a solid 3rd liner, but could mesh well with Bo and Pearson playing a heavy game. Connolly seems like a good fit and is a BC boy, but it's always worrisome when there's a breakout season on a contract year, so who knows what he might command. Nyqvist I think will be too pricey with term than we would like.

 

Other names I would consider is Patrick Maroon, Marcus Johansson and Wayne Simmonds. Maroon could probably be signed for cheaper and with less term and we showed interest last offseason, but while he would add some toughness to the top 6, his skating is questionable. Johansson has put up decent numbers, but is injury prone (so fits right in as a Canuck?). Simmonds might fit the style that Bo and Pearson plays.

 

As for what we currently have. I liked what I saw with Leivo on Pettersson's line with his willingness to defend his linemates and respectable skill. I'm surprised actually that his numbers were better as I guess he generated a lot more than his numbers showed. I also would be interested to see if Virtanen could fit into that line with Bo and Pearson as well. I would even be curious to see how someone like Motte would fare, but he does such a great job in a checking role.

[Lancaster]

2 minutes ago, Provost said:

I think the 30 minutes a night has something to do with the miles.  Also, he is one of the few UFAs who would command a 7 year term... so age matters more.

He would just be 35 at the end of the contract, not really that old.  Retroactively looking back, I doubt any team would decline the services of a 35 year old Nicklas Lidstrom.  In any case, the Canucks should be working under the assumption that EK doesn't really need to play 30 mins per night going forward.  

Hughes, Stecher, OJ, Hutton as the young core..... with some vets like Tanev, Edler or Schenn being around to eat some heavy minutes too..... Karlsson should only be expected to play 25 minutes max.  

[theo5789]

17 minutes ago, Provost said:

I think the 30 minutes a night has something to do with the miles.  Also, he is one of the few UFAs who would command a 7 year term... so age matters more.

 

9 minutes ago, Lancaster said:

He would just be 35 at the end of the contract, not really that old.  Retroactively looking back, I doubt any team would decline the services of a 35 year old Nicklas Lidstrom.  In any case, the Canucks should be working under the assumption that EK doesn't really need to play 30 mins per night going forward.  

Hughes, Stecher, OJ, Hutton as the young core..... with some vets like Tanev, Edler or Schenn being around to eat some heavy minutes too..... Karlsson should only be expected to play 25 minutes max.  

While Karlsson is capable of playing 30 min nights, his real average is around 26 mins. So as @Lancaster expects him to play about 25 a night, he's right there already.

 

As for the concern about age, Ryan Suter leads the league once again in time on ice and is 34 years old and is still producing just as well as most of his career. Now there are some injury concerns for Karlsson which adds doubt to his longevity, but I certainly don't think it's going to affect his overall game other than maybe lowering his minutes near the end of his contract and that's fine as hopefully other players start stepping up.

[BCNate]

1 hour ago, NUCKER67 said:

Benning mentioned they want to get a winger for Bo's line. Considering the success Bo had with (LW) Pearson, I'm assuming it'll be a RW. Donskoi or Connolly could be decent and cheaper options. Or maybe Benning swings for the fences with Eberle. Nyqvist could be interesting too. Not sure what they'll do with Tanev and Hutton. Have to assume Pouliot is done as a Canuck. Can they stretch another season out of Baertschi, and play him with Pettersson? 

 

Baertschi - Pettersson - Boeser

Pearson - Horvat - Nyqvist

 

I think Benning will trade for a Dman. Maybe in a swap involving Hutton. He could also add another in FA. Hoping Tanev is traded at the Draft in a package for an extra 1st.

I like Brock Nelson, Anders Lee or Gustav Nyquist.  I think we need better wingers for Horvat, and more scoring from our 3rd line.  These guys would go a long way to build that.

 

I would be cautious with Eberle or Skinner.

 

If we have any chance on Panarin or Karlsson, I'd spend big on them.

[Canuck Surfer]

3 hours ago, theo5789 said:

Patrick Maroon, Marcus Johansson and Wayne Simmonds.

Not for me thanks.

 

Want only guys with speed.  

[Dixon Ward]

Signing Karlsson if, in a dream scenario, he wanted to play here, would immediately solve our backend.  Edler is one of the best #2 guys in the league and could finally play that.  Hughes could pair with Tanev to form a great 2nd pair with alot of tools.  Stecher/Woo would battle for that spot long term.  Leaving room for Hutton. Juolevi would eventually take over for Edler. Everything would be in its rightful place and our depth would immediately be very good.

 

Edler Karlsson 

Hughes Tanev

Hutton Stecher 

Juolevi Schenn

Sautner Woo

Brisebois Rafferty

Teves

Tryamkin?

 

I would go to battle with that top 4.  With the inevitable injuries, we have 9-10 legit nhl defenseman. 

 

I think, with Markstrom, Edler, and Petersson here, we might just have a chance to land him.  Then we could focus on forward I  the draft.

[DrJockitch]

It is a tough choice.  Seems we are early in our rebuild so may not be the time to spend big.

It is just so rare that elite talent becomes available and it is looking like their will be two elite players that fit into holes on this team and are still relatively young becoming available.

Panarin obviously is a good fit and an elite winger.  Young and would be worth a contract.  Problem is with all the money spent on bottom six wingers already our salary cap would be very unbalanced if you can't get rid of Louie.  Even then it takes a special winger to make $10M and frankly I wouldn't spend that on a winger that isn't named Kane, Kucherov or Ovechkin.  If he signs between $9-10 I would accept it but be a bit worried with Brock's extension coming.

Karlsson is an even tougher choice.  He is not Suter, he just isn't that durable.  He is coming off of two injury plagued seasons including a major ankle surgery.  What a player though.

Elite talent is the hardest thing to come by in this league.  We have seen how easy it is to win the lottery.  We have been the worst team in the league for what 4 years and haven't picked higher than 5th.  If elite, young talent becomes available on the free market and you have the space you have to take a swing at it especially when it fits the gaps in your organization.  

I do worry about Benning being the one negotiating with these guys and our young guys.  I do hope there is some truth to the rumours that they are looking for a new president.  I think Benning is a good asset but his umbrella is too big for him.

[IBatch]

34 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

It is a tough choice.  Seems we are early in our rebuild so may not be the time to spend big.

It is just so rare that elite talent becomes available and it is looking like their will be two elite players that fit into holes on this team and are still relatively young becoming available.

Panarin obviously is a good fit and an elite winger.  Young and would be worth a contract.  Problem is with all the money spent on bottom six wingers already our salary cap would be very unbalanced if you can't get rid of Louie.  Even then it takes a special winger to make $10M and frankly I wouldn't spend that on a winger that isn't named Kane, Kucherov or Ovechkin.  If he signs between $9-10 I would accept it but be a bit worried with Brock's extension coming.

Karlsson is an even tougher choice.  He is not Suter, he just isn't that durable.  He is coming off of two injury plagued seasons including a major ankle surgery.  What a player though.

Elite talent is the hardest thing to come by in this league.  We have seen how easy it is to win the lottery.  We have been the worst team in the league for what 4 years and haven't picked higher than 5th.  If elite, young talent becomes available on the free market and you have the space you have to take a swing at it especially when it fits the gaps in your organization.  

I do worry about Benning being the one negotiating with these guys and our young guys.  I do hope there is some truth to the rumours that they are looking for a new president.  I think Benning is a good asset but his umbrella is too big for him.

Stone just got 9.5, Panarin won’t get less, probably more.   Duchene might be the cheaper option still available, depending on how things go this playoffs of course (right now his stock is going up and up).  As for the OP at some point Benning needs to swing for the fences on some of these big fish, our core is young and exciting, two years ago we were the last place players of this caliber seeking for a pay day and a chance to win a cup would look, now at least we’ve sparked their interest.  Karlsson might have noticed the nose dive SJ went through the last quarter without him, their core is very stale, been held together with guys in their late twenties Kane and Hertl and Burns (who’s what 34?...but no way Karlsson can play like that when he gets that old right?) and have a window of maybe three years and then stink stunk stank.  Why would he want to spend the last four years of his money deal in a ... oh wait the sun and beach and his family loves it.  Damn.  

 

Dont but the injury bug with Karlsson will last, other greats went through the same thing at his age, healed and went on to have great second half’s of their careers (including Gretzky remember when his back was done and he was going to retire? I do), it’s still worth the risk/reward and we can actually afford him where most teams can not.

 

Duchene or Panarin are worth the risks too, as is Myers.  The OP speaks truth in that at some point JB needs to not shy away from higher tier UFAs (LE might have him gun shy) again...no more bottom sixers we have too many as it is and our very own baking in the oven for when the ones we have contracts are up.

[Conscience]

Bang on and go after a big one, we’ve already looked up enough big money on mediocre players.

Much rather we overpay Karlsson then over pay Myers. Whats the difference in salary going to be, a jay beagle a schaller?

[theo5789]

6 hours ago, Canuck Surfer said:

Not for me thanks.

 

Want only guys with speed.  

I've brought up the speed issue, but it's a very limited view to exclude players because of this.

 

Maroon would be a physical player that has some skill and would stand up for our players. He could very likely sign a relatively cheap and short term deal to not hurt us long term and allow from growth within the group to take over.

 

Marcus Johansson is hardly slow, but has serious injury concerns. However, he may also be able to be signed for cheap and short term given that concern and at best could provide 50-60 points into the top 6.

 

Wayne Simmonds might actually be the hardest target to acquire as I think there will be demand for his services, but it's because he plays a tough game and can also put up points. His drop off this year may force him to take less term though which would be beneficial.

 

I'm not saying necessarily to target any of these guys, but they certainly could add something to our top 6 if it's what we are looking for.

[189lb enforcers?]

Is anyone actually surprised that JB’s age-gap Plan replace-athon reduces down to this? 

 

The excusers will spin this, but I think it’s pretty obvious by now that the pool suffered from the lack of draft picks and even the loss of McCann. Others can rewrite the summary in this saga, but I can’t be bothered.

 

We can also move the elastic blame to Aquaman for refusing to tap out in 2013. 

 

There is no skill in the pool and not much coming up to supplement the core, even after all this time in the basement. Had EP not been a superstar out of the gate, I don’t think there’d be much for JB to stand on today. 

[DrJockitch]

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

Stone just got 9.5, Panarin won’t get less, probably more.   Duchene might be the cheaper option still available, depending on how things go this playoffs of course (right now his stock is going up and up).  As for the OP at some point Benning needs to swing for the fences on some of these big fish, our core is young and exciting, two years ago we were the last place players of this caliber seeking for a pay day and a chance to win a cup would look, now at least we’ve sparked their interest.  Karlsson might have noticed the nose dive SJ went through the last quarter without him, their core is very stale, been held together with guys in their late twenties Kane and Hertl and Burns (who’s what 34?...but no way Karlsson can play like that when he gets that old right?) and have a window of maybe three years and then stink stunk stank.  Why would he want to spend the last four years of his money deal in a ... oh wait the sun and beach and his family loves it.  Damn.  

 

Dont but the injury bug with Karlsson will last, other greats went through the same thing at his age, healed and went on to have great second half’s of their careers (including Gretzky remember when his back was done and he was going to retire? I do), it’s still worth the risk/reward and we can actually afford him where most teams can not.

 

Duchene or Panarin are worth the risks too, as is Myers.  The OP speaks truth in that at some point JB needs to not shy away from higher tier UFAs (LE might have him gun shy) again...no more bottom sixers we have too many as it is and our very own baking in the oven for when the ones we have contracts are up.

I am agreeing we should be swinging for the fences.  I just think there are only two potential UFAs that this really describes.  Benning should be making a play for either of these guys.

Anyone else I am kind of agnostic on.  I think we are better continuing to build through the draft and development than loading up on more midrange guys.  We hear the theory every year that the youth need vets before bringing in another round of midling to low end UFAs.  Last year worked out better than previous with 2/3 working out.  At some point these middling vets are holding back the youth of the team.

[189lb enforcers?]

34 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

I am agreeing we should be swinging for the fences.  I just think there are only two potential UFAs that this really describes.  Benning should be making a play for either of these guys.

Anyone else I am kind of agnostic on.  I think we are better continuing to build through the draft and development than loading up on more midrange guys.  We hear the theory every year that the youth need vets before bringing in another round of midling to low end UFAs.  Last year worked out better than previous with 2/3 working out.  At some point these middling vets are holding back the youth of the team.

There is no middling youth being held back right now though as they’ve all graduated to the big club. 

 

Lind and Gadjo are a million years away. There is no skill coming that’s being blocked by vets. Zack is a grinder and that’s is what FA should be used for, IMO.

 

If JB signs several FAs on a 2 or 3 year term, so what.

If he signs 5 and flips them at the TDL, awesome. 

Edited April 14, 2019 by 189lb enforcers?

[Alflives]

5 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

I am agreeing we should be swinging for the fences.  I just think there are only two potential UFAs that this really describes.  Benning should be making a play for either of these guys.

Anyone else I am kind of agnostic on.  I think we are better continuing to build through the draft and development than loading up on more midrange guys.  We hear the theory every year that the youth need vets before bringing in another round of midling to low end UFAs.  Last year worked out better than previous with 2/3 working out.  At some point these middling vets are holding back the youth of the team.

And those middling vets get us to the middle, which worsens our draft position.  Getting to the middle too soon in a rebuild can make for many years of finishing in the middle, with no real chance for a Cup.  I’d only go for EK in this UFA market.  Parnarin is not the same level of difference maker as EK.

[spook007]

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

Stone just got 9.5, Panarin won’t get less, probably more.   Duchene might be the cheaper option still available, depending on how things go this playoffs of course (right now his stock is going up and up).  As for the OP at some point Benning needs to swing for the fences on some of these big fish, our core is young and exciting, two years ago we were the last place players of this caliber seeking for a pay day and a chance to win a cup would look, now at least we’ve sparked their interest.  Karlsson might have noticed the nose dive SJ went through the last quarter without him, their core is very stale, been held together with guys in their late twenties Kane and Hertl and Burns (who’s what 34?...but no way Karlsson can play like that when he gets that old right?) and have a window of maybe three years and then stink stunk stank.  Why would he want to spend the last four years of his money deal in a ... oh wait the sun and beach and his family loves it.  Damn.  

 

Dont but the injury bug with Karlsson will last, other greats went through the same thing at his age, healed and went on to have great second half’s of their careers (including Gretzky remember when his back was done and he was going to retire? I do), it’s still worth the risk/reward and we can actually afford him where most teams can not.

 

Duchene or Panarin are worth the risks too, as is Myers.  The OP speaks truth in that at some point JB needs to not shy away from higher tier UFAs (LE might have him gun shy) again...no more bottom sixers we have too many as it is and our very own baking in the oven for when the ones we have contracts are up.

Don't think you have to worry about big pay forth line players once these contracts are up. At that stage the you guy has matured and we should have enough guys coming through that can play those positions. However while we all speak about FA's, watching the playoffs has been a stark reminder, how much more physical teams are... Just in case anyone think our team is play offs ready, we need more beef in the line up...