The Case for UFA’s

[Provost]

19 minutes ago, Salacious Crumb said:

You are correct on all fronts but still good problems to have no?

 

If a team has bad contracts that is obviously less than optimal but having too many good players on fair contracts means some have to be traded for futures which is just part of the natural cycle of a team and not a hurtful ‘problem’ perhaps...

Not good problems!  We are one of the worst teams in the league right now.  We don't have too many good players on fair contracts.  We will have fewer players on good contracts going forward because we will be paying or overpaying our kids as their contracts expire.

We have a core of good young kids who have a chance to become a great core for the next five years or so.  We have a big blank of nothing coming to support or add to them in the pipeline for most of those years.  Not all of our existing guys are going to have career years and linearly progress every season just because they are a year older.

Try to map out a plan for becoming a Cup contender in the next five years without adding a lot more top end players.  Our drafting can furnish us with middle and bottom end players to replace existing veteran contracts and make up for expensive UFAs.  

 

[rekker]

20 minutes ago, Provost said:

Not good problems!  We are one of the worst teams in the league right now.  We don't have too many good players on fair contracts.  We will have fewer players on good contracts going forward because we will be paying or overpaying our kids as their contracts expire.

We have a core of good young kids who have a chance to become a great core for the next five years or so.  We have a big blank of nothing coming to support or add to them in the pipeline for most of those years.  Not all of our existing guys are going to have career years and linearly progress every season just because they are a year older.

Try to map out a plan for becoming a Cup contender in the next five years without adding a lot more top end players.  Our drafting can furnish us with middle and bottom end players to replace existing veteran contracts and make up for expensive UFAs.  

 

I think there's room for one big UFA especially if we find a way to ditch LE. Thing is I would lik to see a top end UFA. Not a middle of the road player. Swing for the fences and sign Panarin or EK. Or wait and see what comes up in the following years crop of UFA's. But high end only. 

[Provost]

31 minutes ago, rekker said:

I think there's room for one big UFA especially if we find a way to ditch LE. Thing is I would lik to see a top end UFA. Not a middle of the road player. Swing for the fences and sign Panarin or EK. Or wait and see what comes up in the following years crop of UFA's. But high end only. 

I probably add another tier of guys in there as well in my opinion.  As long as they are legitimate top 6 forwards or top 4 D.  Lee, Duchene, Skinner, Myers, Nyquist, Dzingel, Stralman.  The odds of getting a top guy are low, and any of the above guys help us be better going forward and more attractive to UFAs the next offseason.  The narrative around our team changes pretty dramatically if we have a surprising season next year, maybe win a playoff round, and have another Calder candidate in Hughes.  Suddenly we look like a team you can win going forward with as a UFA.

I actually think there is a decent chance Eriksson isn't on our roster next season.

[rekker]

3 minutes ago, Provost said:

I probably add another tier of guys in there as well in my opinion.  As long as they are legitimate top 6 forwards or top 4 D.  Lee, Duchene, Skinner, Myers, Nyquist, Dzingel, Stralman.  The odds of getting a top guy are low, and any of the above guys help us be better going forward and more attractive to UFAs the next offseason.  The narrative around our team changes pretty dramatically if we have a surprising season next year, maybe win a playoff round, and have another Calder candidate in Hughes.  Suddenly we look like a team you can win going forward with as a UFA.

I actually think there is a decent chance Eriksson isn't on our roster next season.

I think we agree. No project players. For sure I can agree with almost all the players you mentioned. Just stay out of the bargain bin. It's time to take a big step forward. 

[rekker]

2 hours ago, Provost said:

I probably add another tier of guys in there as well in my opinion.  As long as they are legitimate top 6 forwards or top 4 D.  Lee, Duchene, Skinner, Myers, Nyquist, Dzingel, Stralman.  The odds of getting a top guy are low, and any of the above guys help us be better going forward and more attractive to UFAs the next offseason.  The narrative around our team changes pretty dramatically if we have a surprising season next year, maybe win a playoff round, and have another Calder candidate in Hughes.  Suddenly we look like a team you can win going forward with as a UFA.

I actually think there is a decent chance Eriksson isn't on our roster next season.

Im thinking LE wants out as well. Its just not working out here, obviously. A change of scenery may salvage his career. 

Edited April 14, 2019 by rekker

[Canuck Surfer]

4 hours ago, theo5789 said:

I've brought up the speed issue, but it's a very limited view to exclude players because of this.

 

Maroon would be a physical player that has some skill and would stand up for our players. He could very likely sign a relatively cheap and short term deal to not hurt us long term and allow from growth within the group to take over.

 

Marcus Johansson is hardly slow, but has serious injury concerns. However, he may also be able to be signed for cheap and short term given that concern and at best could provide 50-60 points into the top 6.

 

Wayne Simmonds might actually be the hardest target to acquire as I think there will be demand for his services, but it's because he plays a tough game and can also put up points. His drop off this year may force him to take less term though which would be beneficial.

 

I'm not saying necessarily to target any of these guys, but they certainly could add something to our top 6 if it's what we are looking for.

No its not.

 

Take at Lucic on a line with McDavid. He cant get to the blue line in time to collect a rebound on one of McDavids shots. I personally believe Looch can still play on the right team. Columbus? Simmonds could no longer keep up with Giroux, Konecny. He's not doing great with Nashville's mobile D. Maroons ok. Johansen?

 

But not one built on speed as we are building. I believe we are building anyway...   

[Canuck Surfer]

4 hours ago, Provost said:

We have done our bottom of the league stint.  We have enough pieces to not be the worst in the league.  In the tiers of draft players, there generally isn’t a lot of difference between the guy you draft at 8 and the guy you draft at 15.  You just have to pick the right guy and/or luck out.

 

The downside of skidding along the bottom for the next couple years, even if we could be as bad as teams like Ottawa... is that we actually have to re-sign our star young guys in that window as well.  Do you think they will want to commit to spending their entire prime on a losing team?

 

Tanking becomes a continuous cycle.

Yes.

 

And also to grow. We have top team potential already in a few years when Hughes is scoring 50 points, Bo 65 or 70, Alien 95. Boeser, who knows. Hell, Jake 45?

 

What it is going to take is some complimentary players.  One more fishing story from the draft like Brock where we can say we landed one. And the complimentary players can come outside the draft. Samuelsson, Malhotra, Hamhuis, all helped elevate a good team to a contending one.

 

4 hours ago, Alflives said:

Those middling UFAs will ruin our coming draft spot.  Our kids should be the ones leading us to where we finish.  I don’t want us to get an unnatural bump up in the standings because of middling UFA signings.  

I disagree.

 

Yes maybe we're drafting 10th, not 6th or 7th. Because we signed Beagle, Roussel, still have Granlund, Sutter etc., as role players. But it was Markstrom & Petey that elevated us to a position where we are not drafting 2knd or 3rd.  

 

We need to make this years first count!  And find another fish, or gem, like Tryamkin, or Demko in a later round. We may already have one in Madden, Lockwood or Rathbone? Keep getting players, if not all stars as we start to move down the draft.

 

 

There is there already the bones to build a contending team from this foundation. It has to come together? But it has the potential.  

[Alflives]

3 hours ago, appleboy said:

You don't worry about his injuries?   They will need to sign this guy for 7 years.   

I don’t worry about EK.  He’s a super smart and competitive guy.  He will lead.  Gardiner, however, has a bad back.  That is worrisome.  

[DrJockitch]

5 hours ago, Alflives said:

And those middling vets get us to the middle, which worsens our draft position.  Getting to the middle too soon in a rebuild can make for many years of finishing in the middle, with no real chance for a Cup.  I’d only go for EK in this UFA market.  Parnarin is not the same level of difference maker as EK.

Cheers Alf, pretty much in agreeance.

I would take a good look at Panarin as he really is an elite scorer and our team lacks a lot of skill on the wing.  As stated above though can't spend too much money on the wing.

If not getting a top notch guy I just don't think the second tier guys are worth the length of contracts.  Keep the powder dry and when we are starting to define what we have with the Pettersen, Bo, Brock and Quinn core we can figure what UFAs fit better and will have better clarity on what Brock's and Pettersen's next deals will look like. 

Expansion draft coming as well and these UFA deals often have NMCs.

[DrJockitch]

You know in times like this I find it helpful to ask the spiritual question WWES.

When we reach times of pure conjecture and unrealistic expectations called the offseason there is one question which gives me comfort:  What Would Eklund Say.  

[kloubek]

I think there is certainly a place for a UFA, but it has to be an ideal fit in all respects imo.  No more reclamation projects or guys we take a big risk on.  This includes style of play, attitude, age, cap hit and term.  Even then, there is always at least some risk.

 

So who are the true "ideal" fits available as our 1LW?  There are not many imo.  Panarin as good as he is, would come with an enormous price tag and isn't the best fit for us imo.  To offset Petey's size and to help protect him, I feel the 1LW needs to be a skilled guy with size and there aren't many such guys available.  Ferland is a pick of many, but he doesn't have the high end skill that would work well enough imo.  The only guy that pops out at me is Anders Lee, so I think Benning should go after him hard.  It might be really tough to pull him away from the Islanders though.

 

For 2RW (Assuming Pearson sticks with Bo) we need a playmaker ideally. If we were to keep Baertschi, I think a line of Pearson Horvat and Baertschi might work well enough even though Baer is more of a scorer than a playmaker. Really I don't think either guy is close to Horvat's level but unless we clear room we have limited options. If we got rid of Baer, than I really don't see anyone available in UFA who is truly ideal.  Nyquist has the skill, but maybe not the defensive ability, and he is older than I would ideally like.

 

Benning has said more than once that we need to help our D, and the right side is our obvious pressing need. Myers has been a popular thought as he brings a good combination of size, scoring and shutdown ability.  My only concern here is how much term he would want. I think he would be good as a shorter term fix - long enough for Woo to step in maybe.  Karlsson would obviously boost any team, but he will command a huge and long term contract I am not sure I am entirely comfortable with.

 

So all in all, I don't see a ton of solutions for us in FA this time around, but I do think we have no choice but to dip into the pool either this year or next, since drafted players may not be ready to be strong contributors for another 2-3 years.  Unless, of course, we want to be a non contender for the next few years.

[canuck73_3]

3 minutes ago, kloubek said:

I think there is certainly a place for a UFA, but it has to be an ideal fit in all respects imo.  No more reclamation projects or guys we take a big risk on.  This includes style of play, attitude, age, cap hit and term.  Even then, there is always at least some risk.

 

So who are the true "ideal" fits available as our 1LW?  There are not many imo.  Panarin as good as he is, would come with an enormous price tag and isn't the best fit for us imo.  To offset Petey's size and to help protect him, I feel the 1LW needs to be a skilled guy with size and there aren't many such guys available.  Ferland is a pick of many, but he doesn't have the high end skill that would work well enough imo.  The only guy that pops out at me is Anders Lee, so I think Benning should go after him hard.  It might be really tough to pull him away from the Islanders though.

 

For 2RW (Assuming Pearson sticks with Bo) we need a playmaker ideally. If we were to keep Baertschi, I think a line of Pearson Horvat and Baertschi might work well enough even though Baer is more of a scorer than a playmaker. Really I don't think either guy is close to Horvat's level but unless we clear room we have limited options. If we got rid of Baer, than I really don't see anyone available in UFA who is truly ideal.  Nyquist has the skill, but maybe not the defensive ability, and he is older than I would ideally like.

 

Benning has said more than once that we need to help our D, and the right side is our obvious pressing need. Myers has been a popular thought as he brings a good combination of size, scoring and shutdown ability.  My only concern here is how much term he would want. I think he would be good as a shorter term fix - long enough for Woo to step in maybe.  Karlsson would obviously boost any team, but he will command a huge and long term contract I am not sure I am entirely comfortable with.

 

So all in all, I don't see a ton of solutions for us in FA this time around, but I do think we have no choice but to dip into the pool either this year or next, since drafted players may not be ready to be strong contributors for another 2-3 years.  Unless, of course, we want to be a non contender for the next few years.

Although a $1-2mil reclamation project wouldn't be terrible as long as it is a 1 year term only and if he brings a unique skill set. Havent looked that deep in this FA pool just yet to see if that type of player is available.  

[shazzam]

2 hours ago, Maniwaki Canuck said:

People need to be a bit more positive about Benning's ufa track record.  Ericksson was the only time he truly messed up trying to land a top-end guy and most of the hockey world thought that was a good move at the time.  Miller and Vrbata were both successes, even though the latter was only for the first year.   Every other ufa signing was of the depth or place-holding variety and should be judged by those standards. 

Every GM makes mistakes unless they're not taking any chances, which amounts to not trying.  It's no reason to shut down all future operations.  I'm hoping Benning gets back in the saddle during free agency because all successful teams make use of it.

Most of the hockey world was asking what the hell Benning was doing. 

[canuck73_3]

3 minutes ago, shazzam said:

Most of the hockey world was asking what the hell Benning was doing. 

Not really, some noted his success with the Sedins at the world championship. We all know how it turned out unfortunately. It wasn't as bad as you make it out to be though. 

 

Some questioned about making that big of a splash at that stage of the rebuild. Some said it's a good fit with the Sedins. At the end of the day it was a big gamble that didn't pay off.  

[aGENT]

2 hours ago, Provost said:

Neither Woo, nor Juolevi really project there...

The top 4? Yes they do. Nobody's declaring them 'super stars'. We've got a few of those already anyway. Now we just need to fill in around them with competent top 6 F / top 4 D. as well as nailing another one or two with what will likely, increasingly be mid 1st picks (I'll happily take a Barzal or McAvoy in due time).

 

Exclusively draft? No. Primarily? Yes. You can complement that with a FA or two here or there bur otherwise there are no shortcuts.

 

 

[189lb enforcers?]

2 hours ago, Maniwaki Canuck said:

People need to be a bit more positive about Benning's ufa track record.  Ericksson was the only time he truly messed up trying to land a top-end guy and most of the hockey world thought that was a good move at the time.  Miller and Vrbata were both successes, even though the latter was only for the first year.   Every other ufa signing was of the depth or place-holding variety and should be judged by those standards. 

Every GM makes mistakes unless they're not taking any chances, which amounts to not trying.  It's no reason to shut down all future operations.  I'm hoping Benning gets back in the saddle during free agency because all successful teams make use of it.

I don’t think people think those FAs sucked, but rather question the use of FAs that were never brought in as TDL bait and were clogging up the tank, which needed a seriousLy good flushing. 

[canuck73_3]

2 minutes ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

I don’t think people think those FAs sucked, but rather question the use of FAs that were never brought in as TDL bait and were clogging up the tank, which needed a seriousLy good flushing. 

If only Vrbata didn't completely suck ass year 2 and only list teams that didn't want him with his NTC. 

 

As for Miller he came this way to stay closer with his wife and no team out this way was willing to pay anything for him or didn't really need him altogether. LA had/has Quick, SJ was a cup contender already, Arizona was a bottom feeder and Anaheim still had faith in their combo. I understand why Miller stuck around the full deal. 

 

I wish Vrbata was never given a NTC though if it was the sticking point I would have passed on him myself. 

[shazzam]

7 minutes ago, canuck73_3 said:

Not really, some noted his success with the Sedins at the world championship. We all know how it turned out unfortunately. It wasn't as bad as you make it out to be though. 

 

Some questioned about making that big of a splash at that stage of the rebuild. Some said it's a good fit with the Sedins. At the end of the day it was a big gamble that didn't pay off.  

No, the team was supposed to rebuild but instead goes out to get a winger for 2 players at the tail end of their careers. It was just desperate and dumb

[canuck73_3]

Just now, shazzam said:

No, the team was supposed to rebuild but instead goes out to get a winger for 2 players at the tail end of their careers. It was just desperate and dumb

Maybe it was but it wasn't as bad as you make it out to be. Was it questioned? Of course and rightfully so. But most conceded they understood the reasoning for it. 

[Provost]

33 minutes ago, kloubek said:

  The only guy that pops out at me is Anders Lee, so I think Benning should go after him hard.  It might be really tough to pull him away from the Islanders though.

 

I think I was the first person beating the Lee drum for a few months.  Probably mostly ignored as most figured he would have signed an extension with the Islanders by now.

 

Ideal fit for a Petterson-Boeser line.  He is one of the best net front guys in the league and would open space for them and complement their styles of play.

 

Maybe if the Islanders take a long run he will feel really positive and sign there for the shorter term they are offering.  Otherwise it is late enough that his agent must be pushing for him to at least make it to the negotiating window and see what teams would offer.  They then have an offer to see if the Islanders would match.