[Discussion] The Pros and Cons of Adding Erik Karlsson

[NUCKER67]

If they signed Karlsson, I could see him getting way more than any other player and his contract would probably contain all of the bells and whistles. So, what happens if he has a bad stretch or even a bad year? Canucks fans will be demanding Benning's head for signing Erik to a long term deal with a NMC etc. And maybe they have trouble re-signing good young players down the road, kind of like TOR is going to go through now. They really shouldn't have re-signed Nylander. And now it looks like they're going to try and pay Marner less because he didn't produce enough and get the Leafs to the 2nd Round. Good luck with that. I hope another (eastern) team gives Marner an offer he can't refuse.

 

If the Canucks draft Soderstrom (and Tryamkin comes back), the D looks like it could contend in 2-3 years. Stay the course.

 

Edler - UFA

Hughes - Soderstrom

Juolevi - Woo

Tryamkin*

 

 

[JM_]

I was very pro on the idea before he was traded to SJS. He'd still be the best offensive dman we have, but the chances of his best years being behind him are pretty high. 

 

Its a tough one, few teams get the chance at adding a generational player, even an ageing one. 

 

If Karlsson actually did want to come here I don't see how Jim says no, but I highly doubt we get the chance. 

[Ralph.]

1 hour ago, KKnight said:

I rather go after Panarin, Lee, Nelson or to a lesser degree Ferland. 

 

For defence I would watch the trade market. Maybe a Severson, Colin Miller or Josh Manson becomes available. 

Would love a guy like Severson. Watched him way back in Kelowna, happy to see him succeeding.

[Canucklehead73]

Pros

 

EK is an excellent offensive d man that we are sorely lacking...

 

Cons

 

Publicly came put saying he wants top dollar and pretty much means he is all about the money... yeah he is a pro but you would hope at some level he wants to play for something or somewhere for more than just money.

 

Has some injury history which could turn problematic with such a cap hit...

 

How old would he be when our players hit their stride? I think he would be fine with his style but you never know when players age.

 

Not that anyone doesn't already know this

 

The real question would be.... why would EK leave the sharks? They are contending right now... if he leaves for more money elsewhere (which I personally doubt he will) he is definitely all about the money and no way would I want him on my team looking to win a Stanley cup.

 

C73

[Fanuck]

3 hours ago, Hindustan Smyl said:

This seems to be a hot topic on many different Canucks message boards and so I wanted to give my thoughts on this:

WUT!  There's other Canucks message boards.....where........?

[DrJockitch]

Pros-He is an elite talent and that is the hardest thing to get in the NHL see: Draft Lottery.

He fills our biggest organizational need (outside of the front office).

This big contract would prevent Benning from shopping and overpaying borderline players for a while.  Benning with a sense of fiscal prudence would be a lot better GM.

 

I am not really all that concerned about the cap.  With expansion coming I expect we will see a continued steady rise in the cap and we may be overestimating the value of our young guys.  Boesser has not earned even a Nylander level contract yet, in fact the opening argument should be Bo's contract and that he hasn't even earned that yet.  Petey is an absolute wild card, he is not so far on an Auston Matthew's trajectory for value the way he dropped off this year but given what Eichel got it is an absolute wild card.  Quinn has what 5 games experience.  Who knows what he will be.

 

cons- Injury, injury, injury.

Age is a minor concern.

 

I am a little torn on him.  My feelings about building a team is that elite talent is the hardest thing to find because it rarely gets to market, nobody trades it and if you don't live in Edmonton, NJ or Buffalo the lottery is a harsh mistress.  If you get a chance to add elite talent in a way that doesn't completely wreck your cap and makes at least some sense from an age perspective than you do it every time.  With that in mind would be hard not to take a run at Panarin or Karlsson.

[Hairy Kneel]

Tanev and EK on IR. 

[canucklehead44]

Think 2X Loui Eriksson. Double the risk and double the reward. Tavares signed for 11 million and apparently took a paycut from what he was offered by the Sharks because he wanted to come to Toronto. A norris calibre RHD like Karlsson is even rarer than an elite first line center. Tavares was 9th in points amongst centres when he signed. Karlsson tied 7th for RHD and played only 53 games. Karlsson also plays about 5 minutes more per game. 

So by 2X Loui Eriksson think 12 x 12 for Karlsson (or max contract for 9 years) to bring him to Vancouver. 

If he performs, it doesn't even guarantee we make the playoffs (look at Ottawa). If he ends up sucking after a few years this is the type of contract that could destroy our franchise. 

When it comes to free agent signings, I believe there are four approaches, and this is really how Gillis approached free agency:

1. Find missing pieces but don't build your core around a big free agent signing. Don't overpay and don't let those free agents get too old.

2. Moneyball. Find guys who were under-utilized, sign them cheap, give them a bigger role, and see if they flourish. 

3. Sign older vets to big money, short term contracts (1-2 years tops). If you can trade them at the deadline that is ideal. 

4. Don't spend on role players (3rd and primarily 4th liners, bottom pairing dmen). Sign guys for cheap to create competition with call-ups. 

Right now the Canucks really don't have any missing pieces. It is just the pieces they have aren't very good, and free agency isn't the best way to upgrade. The centre position is more than locked up. They have three LW making at least 3 million (Baer, Pearson, Roussel) who fill in the 1-2-3 spot. On RW unless there is zero hope in Virtanen, Leivo, or Goldobin playing a 2nd line role then this could be a spot to fill. That said you also have 6 million dollar man Loui Eriksson floating around somewhere. 

Left side D we are good to go with Edler/Hutton/Hughes securing spots plus call-up guys in Juolevi/Saunter/Brisebois. Right side is a bit dicier:

RHD
Tanev
Stecher
Biega/Schenn (re-sign)

Biega and Schenn both had awesome seasons and deserve to be back. Stecher is awesome. The problem here is actually Tanev and the fact he is injured all the time. The reason being is Stecher is an awesome 2nd pairing, Biega and Schenn can hold the fort on the bottom pairing but those guys really shouldn't be moving up the lineup. 

Now for RHD I don't really like the class this year. The next free agent class for RHD is MUCH deeper, better to wait until then. There are also guys who we could realistically get.

So, with all that said here are my free agent targets:

Defenseman - only one guy I see being a top 4, others would be depth given Tanev's injury and add more of an offensive flair (given Schenn/Biega are more defensive & physical). They are a bit older but still in their 20s, have shown great ability in the AHL but have had limited opportunity in the NHL. 
1. Anton Stralman - 1 year 6.5 million (trade both him and Tanev at the deadline if we are out). Would likely be on our top pairing. 
2. Tim Heed - 1 year 2 million. Offensive dman who has scored at close to a 30 point per 82 game pace in the NHL. Still youngish at 28, hasn't really settled in to the NHL but has solid numbers in the SHL and AHL. 
3. Jesse Virtanen - 1 year 1.5 million. Who? For starters it would be hilarious having two J Virtanens on the team. Second, he is a 27 year old SHL defenceman who was fourth in the AHL in scoring, lead all defenseman and lead his team in points. He has been a consistent producer in the SHL and SM-liiga. Might be worth seeing if any of that translates to the NHL. If not, send him back to Sweden and terminate his contract if he doesn't report to Utica. 
4. Chris Wideman - 1 year, 1 million (15 points last 41 games, 76 points over his last 94 AHL games) 
5. Jan Rutta - 1 year 2 million

Forwards - we should bring back Leivo. Try to move Granlund and Goldobin's rights for minor league depth. 
1. Brett Connolly - Still just 26. Wouldn't mind taking a chance on him for the same deal we gave Roussel.
2. Smith-Pelly - Can be a piece of crap to play against and might be hungry after getting sent down to the AHL. Still young, showed flashes of offensive potential, and has cup experience. at 1 year / 1 million he might be worth taking a look at.
3. Jamie McGinn - 1 year 2 million - Injuries this year but a decent reclamation project. Physical 15 type of player who could maybe be flipped for a 4th round pick at the deadline.  
4. Patrick Maroon - See Jamie McGinn 
5. Thomas Vanek - 1 year / 2 million. Every year I want to sign Vanek. The one year we did he was a great signing for us! Had chemistry with Boeser and seemed to be a solid veteran presence. Even as a forward who is in and out of the lineup he could provide some offense up front when we hit injuries. 
6. Jannik Hansen - 1 year, 700K - He was awesome in Vancouver. Wouldn't mind giving him one last shot. 
7. Mark McNeil - 1 year / two way contract - Still on the younger side at 26. Only 2 NHL games but a former first round pick with size, plays all forward positions, and is a Langley boy to boot. Wouldn't hurt having him down in Utica. 

So in short, the only two free agents we should go hard for are Stralman (short term) and Connolly (longer term). Outside of those guys I really like Tim Heed. Not too excited about the forwards although Smith-Pelly could be an interesting cheap pick-up

Edited April 25, 2019 by canucklehead44

[HughMungus]

There are no real cons unless we miss the playoffs. Lotto pick makes it more bearable.

 

Hes too good. Plus we would basically have the next swedish olympic team.

 

 

Then make a deal with Arizona or Detroit to fill out the roster

[RonMexico]

13 minutes ago, canucklehead44 said:

Think 2X Loui Eriksson. Double the risk and double the reward. Tavares signed for 11 million and apparently took a paycut from what he was offered by the Sharks because he wanted to come to Toronto. A norris calibre RHD like Karlsson is even rarer than an elite first line center. Tavares was 9th in points amongst centres when he signed. Karlsson tied 7th for RHD and played only 53 games. Karlsson also plays about 5 minutes more per game. 

So by 2X Loui Eriksson think 12 x 12 for Karlsson (or max contract for 9 years) to bring him to Vancouver. 

If he performs, it doesn't even guarantee we make the playoffs (look at Ottawa). If he ends up sucking after a few years this is the type of contract that could destroy our franchise. 

When it comes to free agent signings, I believe there are four approaches, and this is really how Gillis approached free agency:

1. Find missing pieces but don't build your core around a big free agent signing. Don't overpay and don't let those free agents get too old.

2. Moneyball. Find guys who were under-utilized, sign them cheap, give them a bigger role, and see if they flourish. 

3. Sign older vets to big money, short term contracts (1-2 years tops). If you can trade them at the deadline that is ideal. 

4. Don't spend on role players (3rd and primarily 4th liners, bottom pairing dmen). Sign guys for cheap to create competition with call-ups. 

Right now the Canucks really don't have any missing pieces. It is just the pieces they have aren't very good, and free agency isn't the best way to upgrade. The centre position is more than locked up. They have three LW making at least 3 million (Baer, Pearson, Roussel) who fill in the 1-2-3 spot. On RW unless there is zero hope in Virtanen, Leivo, or Goldobin playing a 2nd line role then this could be a spot to fill. That said you also have 6 million dollar man Loui Eriksson floating around somewhere. 

Left side D we are good to go with Edler/Hutton/Hughes securing spots plus call-up guys in Juolevi/Saunter/Brisebois. Right side is a bit dicier:

RHD
Tanev
Stecher
Biega/Schenn (re-sign)

Biega and Schenn both had awesome seasons and deserve to be back. Stecher is awesome. The problem here is actually Tanev and the fact he is injured all the time. The reason being is Stecher is an awesome 2nd pairing, Biega and Schenn can hold the fort on the bottom pairing but those guys really shouldn't be moving up the lineup. 

Now for RHD I don't really like the class this year. The next free agent class for RHD is MUCH deeper, better to wait until then. There are also guys who we could realistically get.

So, with all that said here are my free agent targets:

Defenseman - only one guy I see being a top 4, others would be depth given Tanev's injury and add more of an offensive flair (given Schenn/Biega are more defensive & physical). They are a bit older but still in their 20s, have shown great ability in the AHL but have had limited opportunity in the NHL. 
1. Anton Stralman - 1 year 6.5 million (trade both him and Tanev at the deadline if we are out). Would likely be on our top pairing. 
2. Tim Heed - 1 year 2 million. Offensive dman who has scored at close to a 30 point per 82 game pace in the NHL. Still youngish at 28, hasn't really settled in to the NHL but has solid numbers in the SHL and AHL. 
3. Chris Wideman - 1 year, 1 million (15 points last 41 games, 76 points over his last 94 AHL games) 
4. Jan Rutta - 1 year 2 million
 

Forwards - we should bring back Leivo. Try to move Granlund and Goldobin's rights for minor league depth. 
1. Brett Connolly - Still just 26. Wouldn't mind taking a chance on him for the same deal we gave Roussel.
2. Smith-Pelly - Can be a piece of crap to play against and might be hungry after getting sent down to the AHL. Still young, showed flashes of offensive potential, and has cup experience. at 1 year / 1 million he might be worth taking a look at.
3. Jamie McGinn - 1 year 2 million - Injuries this year but a decent reclamation project. Physical 15 type of player who could maybe be flipped for a 4th round pick at the deadline.  
4. Patrick Maroon - See Jamie McGinn 
5. Thomas Vanek - 1 year / 2 million. Every year I want to sign Vanek. The one year we did he was a great signing for us! Had chemistry with Boeser and seemed to be a solid veteran presence. Even as a forward who is in and out of the lineup he could provide some offense up front when we hit injuries. 
6. Jannik Hansen - 1 year, 700K - He was awesome in Vancouver. Wouldn't mind giving him one last shot. 
7. Mark McNeil - 1 year / two way contract - Still on the younger side at 26. Only 2 NHL games but a former first round pick with size, plays all forward positions, and is a Langley boy to boot. Wouldn't hurt having him down in Utica. 

So in short, the only two free agents we should go hard for are Stralman (short term) and Connolly (longer term). Outside of those guys I really like Tim Heed. Not too excited about the forwards although Smith-Pelly could be an interesting cheap pick-up

 

I know you have sincerely put some thought into this but this just reads like dumpster diving which Benning has been doing since he started here. I know you don't like signing bigger free agents as a way to build up your team, many people agree with you too, but at a certain point you have to aim a little higher. Instead of adding role players, it's time to bring in some guys who aren't gambles and are on the upside of the careers. Sure they are costly but you aren't getting higher end talent for free.

[Tre Mac]

Fills a need but has become brittle, will cost too much and is overrated on the defensive side.  I hope he doesn't want to play here so this is a moot discussion.  People seem to forget that were due for another lockout(it will happen) which will make his deal that much more of a burden down the road.

[Hindustan Smyl]

One major con:

 

This isn’t just applicable to Erik Karlsson, but take a look at the remaining teams lefts in the playoffs:

 

-Colorado

-San Jose

-Dallas

-St. Louis

-NYI

-Carolina

-Boston

-Columbus

 

Now - take a look at the cup winning teams since 2010:

-Chicago

-Boston

-Los Angeles

-Pittsburgh

-Washington

-2019 winner

 

Do you want to know what ALL of these teams have in common?    Not a single one of these teams had 

 

1) A 10+ million dollar player on their team.

 

Take a look at Chicago and LA’s cap when they won their multiple cups.  Ditto for Boston.  You know what?  I’ll even mention Vancouver here since they won back to back Presidents Trophies.  Look at their cost controlled cap hits between 2010-2012.

 

I honestly don’t know if those “cost controlled cap hits to elite players” model are about to go extinct (ie Although Pittsburgh and Washington had relatively cost controlled cap hits relative to that of some other elite teams, that percentage was a little high), but if it ISN”T, then I would strongly consider holding off on Karlsson.

 

The formula for winning still seems to be as follows:

-cost controlled elite talent

-depth (ie cost controlled elite talent allowing for this).

-2 elite centers

-1 elite defenseman at minimum

-1 elite winger at minimum

-1 “very good” goalie at a great cap hit that can play at an elite level when it matters most

-Speed

-Toughness and size (that doesn’t compromise team speed to the point where team speed is a weakness).

 

IF the above is true, then perhaps an Erik Karlsson Signing would prevent the above?

[SilentSam]

EK65:

         Cons-   it’s hard to find cons with this player.

                  We can say “age”?     . .. but a player that skates that well does not break down his form over time,

                                and it’s his mental game, his smarts, intelligence, offensive “reaction and read” that keeps          

                                him above average.     

                   

                  Injury prone ?   ....  but he is a high end minute player,. injuries may be due to fatigue. That should be

                                                  monitored.

                                                 Playing on a team where you want prospects and players to develop, theoretically

                                                 his ice time should not be over the top of 22-26 mins.

            Pros-   His game is elite,. shot, skating, intelligence, stamina.

                        He is what I like to think of a player as  “stock”.   His game will “breed” and wear into other young

                        players who will add and emulate parts of his into their game . Mentorship, he has the experience,    

                         and gainful respect to be listened to.    

                        The effect of his service on other young Canucks would leave a lasting effect on this franchise.

                         That’s Future.

 

The Canucks have never had a bonofide #1 Dman.  To win a Stanley Cup, you need one.

Adding EK65 speeds up our Cup Contension by 2 years. 

 

Money/ Contract? :   If we can trade a D man to free some money up, AND that roster spot, it helps.  

                                   I would like to see Tanev (for many reasons) and his 4.5m per moved.

                                   If Edler signs for less than his 6m per,  there is more to spare.

 

                                   Try to sign for 5 years,  Try to sign for 10-12m per.  

                                                   50-60 m for 5 years of work.  Retire a healthy man at 35? perhaps.

 

                                     Construct the contract to be less impactive as the Cap rises.  

Edited April 25, 2019 by SilentSam

[SilentSam]

28 minutes ago, Hindustan Smyl said:

One major con:

 

This isn’t just applicable to Erik Karlsson, but take a look at the remaining teams lefts in the playoffs:

 

-Colorado

-San Jose

-Dallas

-St. Louis

-NYI

-Carolina

-Boston

-Columbus

 

Now - take a look at the cup winning teams since 2010:

-Chicago

-Boston

-Los Angeles

-Pittsburgh

-Washington

-2019 winner

 

Do you want to know what ALL of these teams have in common?    Not a single one of these teams had 

 

1) A 10+ million dollar player on their team.

 

Take a look at Chicago and LA’s cap when they won their multiple cups.  Ditto for Boston.  You know what?  I’ll even mention Vancouver here since they won back to back Presidents Trophies.  Look at their cost controlled cap hits between 2010-2012.

 

I honestly don’t know if those “cost controlled cap hits to elite players” model are about to go extinct (ie Although Pittsburgh and Washington had relatively cost controlled cap hits relative to that of some other elite teams, that percentage was a little high), but if it ISN”T, then I would strongly consider holding off on Karlsson.

 

The formula for winning still seems to be as follows:

-cost controlled elite talent

-depth (ie cost controlled elite talent allowing for this).

-2 elite centers

-1 elite defenseman at minimum

-1 elite winger at minimum

-1 “very good” goalie at a great cap hit that can play at an elite level when it matters most

-Speed

-Toughness and size (that doesn’t compromise team speed to the point where team speed is a weakness).

 

IF the above is true, then perhaps an Erik Karlsson Signing would prevent the above?

 

But you stated the above..    “formula for winning”.  >.   “1 elite defenseman at minimum”.

 

        We have NEVER had an Elite D man...   Still don’t.   We have to buy one.

           

 

[PhillipBlunt]

11 minutes ago, SilentSam said:

 

But you stated the above..    “formula for winning”.  >.   “1 elite defenseman at minimum”.

 

        We have NEVER had an Elite D man...   Still don’t.   We have to buy one.

           

 

[Goal:thecup]

15 minutes ago, Hindustan Smyl said:

One major con:

 

This isn’t just applicable to Erik Karlsson, but take a look at the remaining teams lefts in the playoffs:

 

-Colorado

-San Jose

-Dallas

-St. Louis

-NYI

-Carolina

-Boston

-Columbus

 

Now - take a look at the cup winning teams since 2010:

-Chicago

-Boston

-Los Angeles

-Pittsburgh

-Washington

-2019 winner

 

Do you want to know what ALL of these teams have in common?    Not a single one of these teams had 

 

1) A 10+ million dollar player on their team.

 

Take a look at Chicago and LA’s cap when they won their multiple cups.  Ditto for Boston.  You know what?  I’ll even mention Vancouver here since they won back to back Presidents Trophies.  Look at their cost controlled cap hits between 2010-2012.

 

I honestly don’t know if those “cost controlled cap hits to elite players” model are about to go extinct (ie Although Pittsburgh and Washington had relatively cost controlled cap hits relative to that of some other elite teams, that percentage was a little high), but if it ISN”T, then I would strongly consider holding off on Karlsson.

 

The formula for winning still seems to be as follows:

-cost controlled elite talent

-depth (ie cost controlled elite talent allowing for this).

-2 elite centers

-1 elite defenseman at minimum

-1 elite winger at minimum

-1 “very good” goalie at a great cap hit that can play at an elite level when it matters most

-Speed

-Toughness and size (that doesn’t compromise team speed to the point where team speed is a weakness).

 

IF the above is true, then perhaps an Erik Karlsson Signing would prevent the above?

Those just under $10m contracts were signed before the cap went up; they all got big, long-term deals years ago.

[hammertime]

Pro: Cute Mustache

Con: Cute Mustache

 

Unless he is taking far less than the 11m x 8 contract rumored offered in Ottawa it's a hard no from me. He has peaked and injuries are a huge concern. Its not so much the cap hit for me it's the term.

[PhillipBlunt]

2 minutes ago, hammertime said:

Pro: Cute Mustache

Con: Cute Mustache

 

Unless he is taking far less than the 11m x 8 contract rumored offered in Ottawa it's a hard no from me. He has peaked and injuries are a huge concern. Its not so much the cap hit for me it's the term.

Arrrgghhhh matey!

[Angry Goose]

3 hours ago, Stelar said:

Con: defensive disaster. 

extra con: imagine his offense dries up and has to become more of a defender

[SilentSam]

1 hour ago, PhillipBlunt said:

Don’t count on 6 ? games as proof PB..  Eriksson would prove to be an excellent mentor for Hughes and give us the 2 line punch on D to excelorate our Teams rise..

EK65 Edler

Hughes Tryamkin

Stetcher Schenn

 

Biegga/ Hutton/ Sautner/ Brisboise