[Speculation] Boeser not close to extension

[theo5789]

16 hours ago, Rick Blight said:

Two other players that are RFA's this summer that I believe Boeser would be compared to are Matthew Tkachuk and Timo Meier. Tkachuk is rumored to be paid anywhere between $6.75M and $8M on a long term contract. Meier is rumored to be around the $7M mark.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/12/05/what-does-william-nylanders-deal-mean-for-timo-meiers-next-contract-with-sharks/

https://thewincolumn.ca/2019/01/19/how-much-will-or-should-matthew-tkachuk-make-on-his-next-contract/

 

Do we wait and see what either of these players sign for or do we try to determine Brock's worth before their contracts are done? Personally, I hope we can get Brock signed before either of these two set the market too high. As a side note, Boeser has a higher goal per game and point per game average for his NHL career than either of these two.

Both of those guys add a physical element to their game. Tkachuk was nearly a PPG guy this season and Boeser would've had the same points this past season as Meier assuming his production remained consistent over the full season. If those are the numbers for those guys, it might actually be good in lowering Boeser's demands. One can say they were on better teams, but Boeser was riding shotgun with EP before he even started his offense again. Even though by the end of the year EP's production was dipping, teams were focused on EP which opened up Boeser a bit more. I know it sounds like I'm talking down Boeser here, but as much as I think Boeser is a great player, I think some here are fantasizing about his potential and simply overvaluing him.

 

Boeser's best case scenario is to either take a long term deal and secure his money at say 7 million for 8 years or believe in himself and sign a 4 year deal at around 6 million and earn a bigger pay out in his next contract which could be in the 9 million+ range if he reaches the 40-50 goal mark as some are believing he's capable of.

[Rick Blight]

6 minutes ago, theo5789 said:

Both of those guys add a physical element to their game. Tkachuk was nearly a PPG guy this season and Boeser would've had the same points this past season as Meier assuming his production remained consistent over the full season. If those are the numbers for those guys, it might actually be good in lowering Boeser's demands. One can say they were on better teams, but Boeser was riding shotgun with EP before he even started his offense again. Even though by the end of the year EP's production was dipping, teams were focused on EP which opened up Boeser a bit more. I know it sounds like I'm talking down Boeser here, but as much as I think Boeser is a great player, I think some here are fantasizing about his potential and simply overvaluing him.

 

Boeser's best case scenario is to either take a long term deal and secure his money at say 7 million for 8 years or believe in himself and sign a 4 year deal at around 6 million and earn a bigger pay out in his next contract which could be in the 9 million+ range if he reaches the 40-50 goal mark as some are believing he's capable of.

I don't disagree with this at all but I think it might be risky to sign him to 4 years as that would leave him the option to go to arbitration, sign the one year contract and go to UFA. As unlikely as this might be I would really like to see him locked up for the 7 or 8 years, preferably 8.

[theo5789]

21 minutes ago, Rick Blight said:

I don't disagree with this at all but I think it might be risky to sign him to 4 years as that would leave him the option to go to arbitration, sign the one year contract and go to UFA. As unlikely as this might be I would really like to see him locked up for the 7 or 8 years, preferably 8.

Will he take us to arbitration if he puts up decent enough stats to offer him a 9 million dollar deal over 7 or 8 years after his "bridge"? If he doesn't want to be here after 4 years, then take the arbitration deal and trade him. Ottawa came out of the Stone situation pretty well. It's not something I'm all too concerned about.

[The Lock]

1 hour ago, theo5789 said:

Will he take us to arbitration if he puts up decent enough stats to offer him a 9 million dollar deal over 7 or 8 years after his "bridge"? If he doesn't want to be here after 4 years, then take the arbitration deal and trade him. Ottawa came out of the Stone situation pretty well. It's not something I'm all too concerned about.

Boeser's great and all to keep, but he is more 1-sided than a lot of our other top players. That is the one knock on him in my opinion and why he's not worth something like 9mil at the moment, He obviously could develop into more of a 2-way forward than he is, but at this point he has his niche on the team and he's doing well with his niche.

 

Therefore, I'm inclined to say he's a little more expendable than someone like Pettersson, or even Horvat, for us.It would outright suck to need to replace Boeser but it is possible unlike the other 2.

 

Not saying I want things to go down that road at all, but if it has to happen it has to happen. Luckily it's still May! We have a lot of time and things could still work out before free agency even.

[theo5789]

13 minutes ago, The Lock said:

Boeser's great and all to keep, but he is more 1-sided than a lot of our other top players. That is the one knock on him in my opinion and why he's not worth something like 9mil at the moment, He obviously could develop into more of a 2-way forward than he is, but at this point he has his niche on the team and he's doing well with his niche.

 

Therefore, I'm inclined to say he's a little more expendable than someone like Pettersson, or even Horvat, for us.It would outright suck to need to replace Boeser but it is possible unlike the other 2.

 

Not saying I want things to go down that road at all, but if it has to happen it has to happen. Luckily it's still May! We have a lot of time and things could still work out before free agency even.

The 9 million dollar suggestion is after a bridge of 6 million for 4 years and assuming he has become an even more elite player in that time frame. The concern was about him hitting a point of arbitration after the 4 years where he can take a 1 year deal that brings him to UFA and walk. I expressed that I wasn't concerned because I'm sure if we were at the point where we think he's worth 9 million+ and we deem it worthy, then he would simply extend or we just move on from him if we don't like what they're asking for.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, theo5789 said:

The 9 million dollar suggestion is after a bridge of 6 million for 4 years and assuming he has become an even more elite player in that time frame. The concern was about him hitting a point of arbitration after the 4 years where he can take a 1 year deal that brings him to UFA and walk. I expressed that I wasn't concerned because I'm sure if we were at the point where we think he's worth 9 million+ and we deem it worthy, then he would simply extend or we just move on from him if we don't like what they're asking for.

I like your way of thinking.  There's no need for us to be buying up his UFA years if we're going to be paying through the nose for all the years.  I'll be pretty disappointed if we're giving him more then 7 mil/year on this contract. 

[theo5789]

3 hours ago, VancouverHabitant said:

I like your way of thinking.  There's no need for us to be buying up his UFA years if we're going to be paying through the nose for all the years.  I'll be pretty disappointed if we're giving him more then 7 mil/year on this contract. 

This has been my point. We are paying a premium to buy only 3 UFA years, but those "savings" will be spent already through his RFA years. If he gets an 8 million dollar contract, then he needs to be that 40-50 goal guy next season. Is he capable? Maybe, but why put all that risk if he doesn't and end up spending more cap than needed only to lose flexibility in building a team and put a precedent on the future RFAs that will use this as a measuring stick rather than Bo's great team example. Plus Bo will be looking to get overpaid in his next deal to make back for what he "lost" on his current deal if we are simply throwing away money so willy nilly over potential.

[Alflives]

6 minutes ago, theo5789 said:

This has been my point. We are paying a premium to buy only 3 UFA years, but those "savings" will be spent already through his RFA years. If he gets an 8 million dollar contract, then he needs to be that 40-50 goal guy next season. Is he capable? Maybe, but why put all that risk if he doesn't and end up spending more cap than needed only to lose flexibility in building a team and put a precedent on the future RFAs that will use this as a measuring stick rather than Bo's great team example. Plus Bo will be looking to get overpaid in his next deal to make back for what he "lost" on his current deal if we are simply throwing away money so willy nilly over potential.

Bridge deal?  Three years at 6?

[theo5789]

Just now, Alflives said:

Bridge deal?  Three years at 6?

I'm perfectly fine with a bridge, Boeser might want long term though. It's fine if he does, but it'll be long term based on his value now with a small increase. So it'll be like 6.5-7 for 7 years or something if he wants to lock in his money now.

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, theo5789 said:

I'm perfectly fine with a bridge, Boeser might want long term though. It's fine if he does, but it'll be long term based on his value now with a small increase. So it'll be like 6.5-7 for 7 years or something if he wants to lock in his money now.

Considering how serious his back injury was, I could see why he’d want an 8 year deal too.  What about 60 million over 8 years?  (7.5/)

[HockeyHarry]

A deal will get done.

 

sports media enjoys chaos mostly when there’s nothing to really discuss at this time.

 

ill be worried Only if he’s not signed when season starts.

 

cant wait til the draft. 

 

 

[komodo0921]

On 5/30/2019 at 3:25 PM, goalie13 said:

How do you know that's not what JB already offered?

If Benning did and Boeser declined, I would be very interested to see what teams would be willing to offer him. He'd be getting close to the 2x1st rounder plateau. 

If he's going there anyway, might as well find out. Benning always has the right to match. 

[Crabcakes]

0.83 ppg.......we're talking Nylander money even though Willie is a measly 0.68

[theo5789]

2 hours ago, Alflives said:

Considering how serious his back injury was, I could see why he’d want an 8 year deal too.  What about 60 million over 8 years?  (7.5/)

And why would we offer that for the same reason with his back injury? Perhaps it's healed and he's ready to take his game to another level, so let him prove it. If he wants a shorter term bridge so he can get paid well sooner, then that's up to him. The shorter the bridge simply puts more pressure on him to excel faster which is a positive. I'd love for him to be a 40-50 goal over PPG guy as soon as possible.

[spook007]

3 hours ago, Crabcakes said:

0.83 ppg.......we're talking Nylander money even though Willie is a measly 0.68

Don’t know it’ll be quite WN money, but 7,5+ won’t be out of reach for long term contract. 

Quite interesting how quickly people start to drop on our future star players. One sided? Possibly, but lots of room to improve. When your one ability is to score goals, you are going to get paid. 

If they do a bridge deal ( a show me deal) I don’t see more than a few years, as I think BB wants to be paid quickly. (After his injury, he would surely have in the back of his mind, how quickly his career could end). 

Remember when Edler got his 5M contact extension with NMC there was lots of posters complaining about him being paid too much. Don’t think many still think so. 

Comparing BB production to Timo Meier...

BB was playing top line with a rookie EP (a superstar in the making) and Baertschi or who ever 3rd liner available, meeting the oppositions best D-men every game, where Meier was surrounded by stars good enough to go to conference finals. Highly doubt Meier would have been able to accomplice similar production success at this stage had he been on a rebuilding team like Canucks. 

Don’t know if BB ever will be faster like Bo (doubt it), but if he did, what would separate Paranin from him? 

If he takes a bridge deal for 3-4 years, he need to be paid big time just around the same time as Bo.... and Hughes and Pettersson, and then we could end in Cap hell like some of the other teams we laugh at....(or we could trade him for 2 first rounders and restart our rebuilding /s). 

Edited June 1, 2019 by spook007

[spook007]

7 minutes ago, theo5789 said:

And why would we offer that for the same reason with his back injury? Perhaps it's healed and he's ready to take his game to another level, so let him prove it. If he wants a shorter term bridge so he can get paid well sooner, then that's up to him. The shorter the bridge simply puts more pressure on him to excel faster which is a positive. I'd love for him to be a 40-50 goal over PPG guy as soon as possible.

If he becomes a 40-50 goal scorer you’ll have to pay a lot more than 7 for him. That why you’d gamble on him improving to keep the average down.

Bo keeps improving. Had he been as good, when he signed his last contract as he was the year after signing it, he would probably also have gotten paid more. 

[theo5789]

3 minutes ago, spook007 said:

If he becomes a 40-50 goal scorer you’ll have to pay a lot more than 7 for him. That why you’d gamble on him improving to keep the average down.

Bo keeps improving. Had he been as good, when he signed his last contract as he was the year after signing it, he would probably also have gotten paid more. 

When will he become a 40-50 goal scorer? How long will we be paying a premium for this potential to "save" later on? We will only be buying 3 years of UFA assuming he takes an 8 year deal, so why shouldn't we be saving on the RFA years? I'd pay him his value as a 40-50 goal scorer when he gets there, but I believe in paying for his value as of today. What if he never becomes a 40-50 goal guy and is simply just a consistent player where he's at now? If he's confident in himself improving and the Canucks want to ensure they are getting value for their player, then it makes sense for both sides to bridge. I think a 4 year deal is what's ideal for both sides at 6 million per. It's less than the supposed Nylander benchmark, but it's also a shorter contract, so if he performs, then he will be paid more.

 

With all that said, I'm fine if he wants to take 7 million over 8 years as I've suggested. But if he's looking for less term (at that price) or higher dollars, then he needs to bridge and earn it IMO.

[theo5789]

21 minutes ago, spook007 said:

Don’t know it’ll be quite WN money, but 7,5+ won’t be out of reach for long term contract. 

Quite interesting how quickly people start to drop on our future star players. One sided? Possibly, but lots of room to improve. When your one ability is to score goals, you are going to get paid. 

If they do a bridge deal ( a show me deal) I don’t see more than a few years, as I think BB wants to be paid quickly. (After his injury, he would surely have in the back of his mind, how quickly his career could end). 

Remember when Edler got his 5M contact extension with NMC there was lots of posters complaining about him being paid too much. Don’t think many still think so. 

Comparing BB production to Timo Meier...

BB was playing top line with a rookie and Baertschi or who ever 3rd liner available, meeting the oppositions best D-men every game, where Meier was surrounded by stars good enough to go to conference finals. Highly doubt Meier would have been able to accomplice similar production success at this stage had he been on a rebuilding team like Canucks. 

Don’t know if BB ever will be faster like Bo (doubt it), but if he did, what would separate Paranin from him? 

I he takes a bridge deal for 3-4 years, he need to be paid big time just around the same time as Bo.... and Hughes and Pettersson, and then we could end in Cap hell like some of the other teams we laugh at....(or we could trade him for 2 first rounders and restart our rebuilding /s). 

In 3-4 years, LE, Sutter, Beagle and Roussel may likely be off the books. That's 16 million more off the cap and the cap will continue to rise. Those guys will need to be replaced, but at that point, assuming we will be not a bottom barrel team, we will attract more quality depth guys willing to sign at a lower cost to play for a supposed contender. Or we develop from within and have cheap depth role players in our system.

 

We are also assuming BB will become a supposed 10 million dollar player within 4 years to make an overvalued contract look like a bargain for a long term above value deal become worth it. As great as his PPG looks, last season it was 69th best in the league (49th in the league for goals per game for those that believe that he is that prolific goal scorer) and we want to pay him as a supposed top 40 paid player in the league by next season (assuming 7.5 million a season). Keep in mind this is Boeser's sole contribution while there are other players that provide other dynamics to their games for more value as well if not simply putting up points. If Boeser can find himself playing like Panarin, then I'll sign him for 10 million dollars, prove it. Can Boeser lead a team in points by over 20-25 points? I'm not worried about saving the money of he becomes that type of player as he will be worth the contract extension at the premium price if he is indeed this type of player.

 

The "rookie" that Boeser was playing with was only the runaway Calder frontrunner pretty much the entire season. Let's not downplay who he was playing with. The opposition was focused on shutting down EP especially when they started finding out who he was by the end of the season and didn't come as a surprise anymore. 

[Guest]

Fair enough

Edited June 1, 2019 by Guest

[spook007]

8 minutes ago, theo5789 said:

In 3-4 years, LE, Sutter, Beagle and Roussel may likely be off the books. That's 16 million more off the cap and the cap will continue to rise. Those guys will need to be replaced, but at that point, assuming we will be not a bottom barrel team, we will attract more quality depth guys willing to sign at a lower cost to play for a supposed contender. Or we develop from within and have cheap depth role players in our system.

 

We are also assuming BB will become a supposed 10 million dollar player within 4 years to make an overvalued contract look like a bargain for a long term above value deal become worth it. As great as his PPG looks, last season it was 69th best in the league (49th in the league for goals per game for those that believe that he is that prolific goal scorer) and we want to pay him as a supposed top 40 paid player in the league by next season (assuming 7.5 million a season). Keep in mind this is Boeser's sole contribution while there are other players that provide other dynamics to their games for more value as well if not simply putting up points. If Boeser can find himself playing like Panarin, then I'll sign him for 10 million dollars, prove it. Can Boeser lead a team in points by over 20-25 points? I'm not worried about saving the money of he becomes that type of player as he will be worth the contract extension at the premium price if he is indeed this type of player.

 

The "rookie" that Boeser was playing with was only the runaway Calder frontrunner pretty much the entire season. Let's not downplay who he was playing with. The opposition was focused on shutting down EP especially when they started finding out who he was by the end of the season and didn't come as a surprise anymore. 

The Calder front runner is still a rookie by definition, who also ran out of steam towards the end. Don't believe for a second, it was just because he focussed on, but we'll see next season.

Had EP been able to keep it up, BB might very likely have broken the 30 goals barrier and maybe even 35 goals, bearing in mind his production improved as got back to better health/confidence after his back injury?

 

LE, Sutter, Beagle, Roussel may be off the books, but will have to replaced by other players, and hopefully there will be room in the budget to get better players or at least as good players to surround EP. BB and Bo. If anything that was what Gillis achieved although it cost us the future by trading away our top picks and adding NTC to everything bar the the door man. 

 

 

I'm not assuming anything, but its fair to expect a 22 year old player, who's only had two full seasons in the league, to improve a fair bit still.

 

The point being, at the moment we lots of room to pay the players, where as when we truly becomes a contender we may need the space.

 

Either way it will be interesting to see how it pans out, and we can and will without doubt have the debate afterwards whether to hail Benning or Lynch him.