[Report] Jeff Skinner and Sabres closing in on deal

[SabreFan1]

13 minutes ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

Holy! I forgot Buffalo is still on the hook for Hodgson until 2023. I guess insurance covers that. 

 

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/sabres

Think that is bad, the Pegulas are still paying millions each year to coaches and GM's for the Bills and the Sabres that are no longer even still with the clubs.  Rex Ryan alone still has another year at $5 million!

Edited June 8, 2019 by SabreFan1

[MystifyNCrucify]

10 minutes ago, SabreFan1 said:

It's the new benchmark poster-signing for desperation.  The Sabres have been bleeding talent.  This signing takes them out of the free agent market and could very possibly lose them Sam Reinhart.  I'm ok with being out of the free agent market, but I'm going to be angry if we lose Reinhart after this season like I suspect that we will.

Exactly how the smart canuck fans feel about these outrageous ideas some have about signing karlsson, taking on lucics contract, and trading (wtf why) for zucker. 

 

Canucks got real lucky when they signed horvat. Boeser is gonna stick it to them with his next contract. 

[SabreFan1]

The financials are out.  The contract pays 10 million for the first 6 years with $7.5 million in signing bonus money in year 3 and year 5. 

 

So the contract is front loaded like I suspected it would be.  As long as Skinner is still producing goals, that makes trading it halfway through easier since most of the actual dollars are paid out in the first 5 years.  Especially if the trade is with a cash strapped team like Ottawa or the Panthers if they manage to stumble into a competitive season where they would need a goal scorer.

 

So after year 5, he's likely getting bought out or traded.

Edited June 8, 2019 by SabreFan1
Goofed on the signing bonus years. It's 3 & 5, not 2 & 4.

[SabreFan1]

5 minutes ago, MystifyNCrucify said:

Exactly how the smart canuck fans feel about these outrageous ideas some have about signing karlsson, taking on lucics contract, and trading (wtf why) for zucker. 

 

Canucks got real lucky when they signed horvat. Boeser is gonna stick it to them with his next contract. 

I try and stay away from the proposal section unless I'm just very bored.  It's better for my sanity and enjoyment of CDC if I do.

[MystifyNCrucify]

3 minutes ago, SabreFan1 said:

I try and stay away from the proposal section unless I'm just very bored.  It's better for my sanity and enjoyment of CDC if I do.

I havent touched the cesspool of arm chair gms in years. This is all just what ive seen in “trades and signings”. 

 

I think thats worse......

[MystifyNCrucify]

@SabreFan1

 

Its hilarious. You can pretty much sum up 95% of the proposals in there with this...

 

”I will give you this bag of pucks, for your best player, but its ok so to make it fair ill throw in a 7th rounder and a pair of dirty panties i found in a dumpster, so you have to retain salary. “

Edited June 8, 2019 by MystifyNCrucify

[IBatch]

20 hours ago, SabreFan1 said:

It's the new benchmark poster-signing for desperation.  The Sabres have been bleeding talent.  This signing takes them out of the free agent market and could very possibly lose them Sam Reinhart.  I'm ok with being out of the free agent market, but I'm going to be angry if we lose Reinhart after this season like I suspect that we will.

Understandable.  The term looks silly really a six year deal would have been fair ...7-8 those years a buyout better be available or they won’t be pretty.

 

Skinner is getting paid becuase only 12 players have scored more goals then him since he joined the league, and that’s with some time missed due to injury....

 

Also if we had to start LEs deal all over again starting now, marked it up to 7.5 for inflation and he played the same way he did the first three years...I’d take door number two please or Skinners contract. 

 

Eichel isnt going anywhere and Skinners new baseline has been discovered after years of toiling as CAR best player with little to no support.  I don’t think you need to worry too much (yet), the next five years this contract will be fine, when the decline starts which it will, the cap hit won’t look as bad.  It’s years 34-35 that will suck...and with a front loaded deal a buyout won’t be as unreasonable and Buffalo and all the rest of the league will get at least two with the next CBA...just save one for him and cross your fingers that you won’t need more by then...

[mll]

20 hours ago, SabreFan1 said:

The financials are out.  The contract pays 10 million for the first 6 years with $7.5 million in signing bonus money in year 3 and year 5. 

 

So the contract is front loaded like I suspected it would be.  As long as Skinner is still producing goals, that makes trading it halfway through easier since most of the actual dollars are paid out in the first 5 years.  Especially if the trade is with a cash strapped team like Ottawa or the Panthers if they manage to stumble into a competitive season where they would need a goal scorer.

 

So after year 5, he's likely getting bought out or traded.

 

Front-loaded deals increases the buyout cap hit.  The buyout cap hit is cap hit less salary savings.  The less salary owed the lower the salary savings - so the higher the buyout cap hit.  The NHL doesn't want teams to front load contracts to get a lower cap hit, and then simply buyout the players the final years of his contract.  

 

If a team thinks buyout they should try and backload the deal or keep the salary at least constant.

 

[aGENT]

Not that Skinner is a bad player... But $9m...ooof. I'd rather pay Panarin.

[ForsbergTheGreat]

28 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Not that Skinner is a bad player... But $9m...ooof. I'd rather pay Panarin.

I think most would but sabres would still have to land Panarin, which is not guarantee they would.  So they went with the slightly less cost/reward option they have control over.

[SabreFan1]

11 hours ago, mll said:

 

Front-loaded deals increases the buyout cap hit.  The buyout cap hit is cap hit less salary savings.  The less salary owed the lower the salary savings - so the higher the buyout cap hit.  The NHL doesn't want teams to front load contracts to get a lower cap hit, and then simply buyout the players the final years of his contract.  

 

If a team thinks buyout they should try and backload the deal or keep the salary at least constant.

I'm more interested in the fact that it would make trading him after year 5 marginally easier if there is less actual money owed.  Front load the contract and a cheap owner will be tempted to take him at the high cap hit/low actual dollar amount.

[Dr. Crossbar]

I wanted us to be in on Skinner but not a term of 8 years. Was thinking 5 years at $8 mill/per at best. I don't see him scoring at a $9 million pace past 32.

 

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Crossbar said:

I wanted us to be in on Skinner but not a term of 8 years. Was thinking 5 years at $8 mill/per at best. I don't see him scoring at a $9 million pace past 32.

 

Is the Skinner contract even worse than the Nylander one?  

[Dr. Crossbar]

1 hour ago, Alflives said:

Is the Skinner contract even worse than the Nylander one?  

The Nylander contract doesn't look so bad now. There's much more of an upside for Nylander to grow into his contract.

 

8 years full NMC across the board taking Skinner to age 35. At least there's a modified NTC in the final year of the Nylander contract.

 

Don't have a problem with the money Skinner is getting. People are talking $8/per for the Boeser contract. Skinner at $9/per makes complete sense given his proven numbers.

 

Contract is 2-3 years too many. 

 

[theo5789]

6 minutes ago, Dr. Crossbar said:

The Nylander contract doesn't look so bad now. There's much more of an upside for Nylander to grow into his contract.

 

8 years full NMC across the board taking Skinner to age 35. At least there's a modified NTC in the final year of the Nylander contract.

 

Don't have a problem with the money Skinner is getting. People are talking $8/per for the Boeser contract. Skinner at $9/per makes complete sense given his proven numbers.

 

Contract is 2-3 years too many. 

 

Skinner's proven numbers has shown his career best in points is 63. He finally cracked the 40 goal mark this year (contract year) and was only close once before with 37. His career average in goals is 30, which is a decent number but I don't see how he is worth 9 million a year (supposedly with a discount to get a NMC to boot). To be fair, I also disagree with the people that think Boeser should get 8.

[Dr. Crossbar]

1 minute ago, theo5789 said:

Skinner's proven numbers has shown his career best in points is 63. He finally cracked the 40 goal mark this year (contract year) and was only close once before with 37. His career average in goals is 30, which is a decent number but I don't see how he is worth 9 million a year (supposedly with a discount to get a NMC to boot). To be fair, I also disagree with the people that think Boeser should get 8.

It's not my number, it's the market.

 

Nylander so far is a 20 goal scorer, more playmaking assists, and essentially getting $7/per. And this will likely somewhat influence Boeser's contract toward $7-8 range for what appears to be a 30 goal scorer.

 

Then there's Panarin - same age as Skinner - a 30 goal scorer but more multi-dimensional - who likely will command $10/per ... or even more now because of Skinner's contract.

 

So Skinner at $9/per, to me, is accurate market value for a 30-40 goal scorer of his caliber based on how others are being valued.

 

 

[theo5789]

58 minutes ago, Dr. Crossbar said:

It's not my number, it's the market.

 

Nylander so far is a 20 goal scorer, more playmaking assists, and essentially getting $7/per. And this will likely somewhat influence Boeser's contract toward $7-8 range for what appears to be a 30 goal scorer.

 

Then there's Panarin - same age as Skinner - a 30 goal scorer but more multi-dimensional - who likely will command $10/per ... or even more now because of Skinner's contract.

 

So Skinner at $9/per, to me, is accurate market value for a 30-40 goal scorer of his caliber based on how others are being valued.

 

 

Panarin makes the ones around him better and drives the offense (20-25 points above the next in Columbus). Skinner doesn't.

 

Pointing out the horrible contracts should not be the market. Nylander was putting up the same type of points as Skinner's career high and even his contract was overpriced. Nylander held out for his deal and Dubas blinked first, so is every player now going to hold out to get overpaid? Skinner at 9 million is a desperation move by Buffalo not wanting to lose him to UFA. There needs to be context with these deals. Agents might be smelling blood on this though and it's going to be very bad for the league.

[D-Money]

1 hour ago, theo5789 said:

Panarin makes the ones around him better and drives the offense (20-25 points above the next in Columbus). Skinner doesn't.

 

Pointing out the horrible contracts should not be the market. Nylander was putting up the same type of points as Skinner's career high and even his contract was overpriced. Nylander held out for his deal and Dubas blinked first, so is every player now going to hold out to get overpaid? Skinner at 9 million is a desperation move by Buffalo not wanting to lose him to UFA. There needs to be context with these deals. Agents might be smelling blood on this though and it's going to be very bad for the league.

You guys are just getting hung up on numbers. These contracts aren't out of the norm at all. The rising salaries are simply a reflection of the rising cap.

 

Jeff Skinner is one of the most productive goal-scorers of the last decade. This may be the first season where he cracked 40, but he probably would have done that before had he had better talent at center to work with. It may seem strange for him to make "more" than a similar-but-more-productive Stamkos at $8.5M, but it's not really more. Because at the time Stamkos signed his deal entering into a $73M cap, making his contract 11.6% of the cap. Skinner's $9M is comparatively less, being 10.8% of the projected $83M cap. (For comparison's sake, that's almost exactly the percentage of cap Daniel and Henrik Sedin each signed for with us in 2009 - $6.1M per - which was signed prior to their most productive seasons).

 

Reports are Stamkos could have got an even higher contract, but with the tax savings in Tampa, and the bonus of playing on a winning team that drafted him, he left money on the table. On top of this, Stamkos' contract is buyout and lockout proof. Every year he earns $1M in salary ($8M total), while the rest is all signing bonuses ($60M total). Skinner's contract has a $7.5M signing bonus in years 2 and 4 ($15M total), and that's it - the rest is all salary ($57M total). This would be another valuable benefit for Stamkos that Skinner did not get, hence requiring the latter commanding more total salary to make up it.

 

Switching gears to Nylander...his cap hit is under $7M. That was signed in a $79.5M cap, making his contract less than 8.8% of the cap. He had an extremely productive first 2 seasons, and his percentage of the cap was either much less or right in the wheelhouse of these past RFA signings:

• Paul Stastny (RFA contract signed with COL) - $6.6M, starting with $56.8M cap (11.6%)
• Evgeny Kuznetsov - $7.8M, $75M cap (10.4%)
• Ryan O'Reilly - $7.5M, $73.0M cap (9.7%)
• Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, and Jordan Staal - $6M, $64.3M cap (9.3%)
• Jason Pominville (RFA contract signed with BUF) - $5.3M, $56.8M cap (9.3%)
• Evander Kane (previous contract) - $5.25M, $60M cap (8.8%)
• Matt Duchesne and Logan Couture - $6M, $69M cap (8.7%)
• Dustin Brown - $5.875M, $69M cap (8.5%)
• Brandon Saad and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - $6M, $71.4M cap (8.4%)
• Ryan Kesler (previous contract, signed w/Vancouver) - $5M, $59.4M cap (8.4%)
• James Neal (previous contract) - $5M, $60.0M cap (8.3%)
• Scott Hartnell (2007 RFA contract) - $4.2M, $50.3M cap (8.3%)

 

So Nylander's percentage of cap is pretty much exactly what Couture, Duchesne, and Kane got when they signed their previous RFA contracts. The only difference is, Couture and Duchesne had 2-year bridge deals out of their ELCs, which is a trend that has gone away league wide (Kane didn't have a bridge deal either).

 

Edited June 10, 2019 by D-Money

[VegasCanuck]

So, if Skinner with 63 points (yes, 40 of them are goals), is worth 9 million per season, what does that do to Toronto with Marner at 94 points in 82 games? Can't see them getting away with any less than 11.5 million for Marner.

 

Even getting someone to take Horton (Yes, I know he's LTIR, but they still have to factor him until season starts and he gets moved back there), and Marleau, that still makes things really tight in Toronto.

 

Moving those 2 out, would still leave them with about 8.5 million in room for 5 or 6 guys. 

[Metal Face Doom]

6 hours ago, D-Money said:

You guys are just getting hung up on numbers. These contracts aren't out of the norm at all. The rising salaries are simply a reflection of the rising cap.

 

Jeff Skinner is one of the most productive goal-scorers of the last decade. This may be the first season where he cracked 40, but he probably would have done that before had he had better talent at center to work with. It may seem strange for him to make "more" than a similar-but-more-productive Stamkos at $8.5M, but it's not really more. Because at the time Stamkos signed his deal entering into a $73M cap, making his contract 11.6% of the cap. Skinner's $9M is comparatively less, being 10.8% of the projected $83M cap. (For comparison's sake, that's almost exactly the percentage of cap Daniel and Henrik Sedin each signed for with us in 2009 - $6.1M per - which was signed prior to their most productive seasons).

 

Reports are Stamkos could have got an even higher contract, but with the tax savings in Tampa, and the bonus of playing on a winning team that drafted him, he left money on the table. On top of this, Stamkos' contract is buyout and lockout proof. Every year he earns $1M in salary ($8M total), while the rest is all signing bonuses ($60M total). Skinner's contract has a $7.5M signing bonus in years 2 and 4 ($15M total), and that's it - the rest is all salary ($57M total). This would be another valuable benefit for Stamkos that Skinner did not get, hence requiring the latter commanding more total salary to make up it.

 

Switching gears to Nylander...his cap hit is under $7M. That was signed in a $79.5M cap, making his contract less than 8.8% of the cap. He had an extremely productive first 2 seasons, and his percentage of the cap was either much less or right in the wheelhouse of these past RFA signings:

• Paul Stastny (RFA contract signed with COL) - $6.6M, starting with $56.8M cap (11.6%)
• Evgeny Kuznetsov - $7.8M, $75M cap (10.4%)
• Ryan O'Reilly - $7.5M, $73.0M cap (9.7%)
• Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, and Jordan Staal - $6M, $64.3M cap (9.3%)
• Jason Pominville (RFA contract signed with BUF) - $5.3M, $56.8M cap (9.3%)
• Evander Kane (previous contract) - $5.25M, $60M cap (8.8%)
• Matt Duchesne and Logan Couture - $6M, $69M cap (8.7%)
• Dustin Brown - $5.875M, $69M cap (8.5%)
• Brandon Saad and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - $6M, $71.4M cap (8.4%)
• Ryan Kesler (previous contract, signed w/Vancouver) - $5M, $59.4M cap (8.4%)
• James Neal (previous contract) - $5M, $60.0M cap (8.3%)
• Scott Hartnell (2007 RFA contract) - $4.2M, $50.3M cap (8.3%)

 

So Nylander's percentage of cap is pretty much exactly what Couture, Duchesne, and Kane got when they signed their previous RFA contracts. The only difference is, Couture and Duchesne had 2-year bridge deals out of their ELCs, which is a trend that has gone away league wide (Kane didn't have a bridge deal either).

 

Good post.  Analyzing the numbers instead of just reacting like most do.