[Report] Jeff Skinner and Sabres closing in on deal

[Dr. Crossbar]

6 hours ago, D-Money said:

You guys are just getting hung up on numbers. 

 

Don't lump me into that. I was defending myself and agree with you. 

[rekker]

7 hours ago, D-Money said:

You guys are just getting hung up on numbers. These contracts aren't out of the norm at all. The rising salaries are simply a reflection of the rising cap.

 

Jeff Skinner is one of the most productive goal-scorers of the last decade. This may be the first season where he cracked 40, but he probably would have done that before had he had better talent at center to work with. It may seem strange for him to make "more" than a similar-but-more-productive Stamkos at $8.5M, but it's not really more. Because at the time Stamkos signed his deal entering into a $73M cap, making his contract 11.6% of the cap. Skinner's $9M is comparatively less, being 10.8% of the projected $83M cap. (For comparison's sake, that's almost exactly the percentage of cap Daniel and Henrik Sedin each signed for with us in 2009 - $6.1M per - which was signed prior to their most productive seasons).

 

Reports are Stamkos could have got an even higher contract, but with the tax savings in Tampa, and the bonus of playing on a winning team that drafted him, he left money on the table. On top of this, Stamkos' contract is buyout and lockout proof. Every year he earns $1M in salary ($8M total), while the rest is all signing bonuses ($60M total). Skinner's contract has a $7.5M signing bonus in years 2 and 4 ($15M total), and that's it - the rest is all salary ($57M total). This would be another valuable benefit for Stamkos that Skinner did not get, hence requiring the latter commanding more total salary to make up it.

 

Switching gears to Nylander...his cap hit is under $7M. That was signed in a $79.5M cap, making his contract less than 8.8% of the cap. He had an extremely productive first 2 seasons, and his percentage of the cap was either much less or right in the wheelhouse of these past RFA signings:

• Paul Stastny (RFA contract signed with COL) - $6.6M, starting with $56.8M cap (11.6%)
• Evgeny Kuznetsov - $7.8M, $75M cap (10.4%)
• Ryan O'Reilly - $7.5M, $73.0M cap (9.7%)
• Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, and Jordan Staal - $6M, $64.3M cap (9.3%)
• Jason Pominville (RFA contract signed with BUF) - $5.3M, $56.8M cap (9.3%)
• Evander Kane (previous contract) - $5.25M, $60M cap (8.8%)
• Matt Duchesne and Logan Couture - $6M, $69M cap (8.7%)
• Dustin Brown - $5.875M, $69M cap (8.5%)
• Brandon Saad and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - $6M, $71.4M cap (8.4%)
• Ryan Kesler (previous contract, signed w/Vancouver) - $5M, $59.4M cap (8.4%)
• James Neal (previous contract) - $5M, $60.0M cap (8.3%)
• Scott Hartnell (2007 RFA contract) - $4.2M, $50.3M cap (8.3%)

 

So Nylander's percentage of cap is pretty much exactly what Couture, Duchesne, and Kane got when they signed their previous RFA contracts. The only difference is, Couture and Duchesne had 2-year bridge deals out of their ELCs, which is a trend that has gone away league wide (Kane didn't have a bridge deal either).

 

Guess I'm old fashioned. To be amongst the top two or three paid players on your team I think you should drive the play and be able to play both ends of the rink, win a puck battle or two, have played a playoff game? Carolina had been rumored to be shopping this guy for two years. I see a one dimensional player that careered it in a contract year. This contract will look come back to haunt Buffalo imho.

 

[theo5789]

4 hours ago, D-Money said:

You guys are just getting hung up on numbers. These contracts aren't out of the norm at all. The rising salaries are simply a reflection of the rising cap.

 

Jeff Skinner is one of the most productive goal-scorers of the last decade. This may be the first season where he cracked 40, but he probably would have done that before had he had better talent at center to work with. It may seem strange for him to make "more" than a similar-but-more-productive Stamkos at $8.5M, but it's not really more. Because at the time Stamkos signed his deal entering into a $73M cap, making his contract 11.6% of the cap. Skinner's $9M is comparatively less, being 10.8% of the projected $83M cap. (For comparison's sake, that's almost exactly the percentage of cap Daniel and Henrik Sedin each signed for with us in 2009 - $6.1M per - which was signed prior to their most productive seasons).

 

Reports are Stamkos could have got an even higher contract, but with the tax savings in Tampa, and the bonus of playing on a winning team that drafted him, he left money on the table. On top of this, Stamkos' contract is buyout and lockout proof. Every year he earns $1M in salary ($8M total), while the rest is all signing bonuses ($60M total). Skinner's contract has a $7.5M signing bonus in years 2 and 4 ($15M total), and that's it - the rest is all salary ($57M total). This would be another valuable benefit for Stamkos that Skinner did not get, hence requiring the latter commanding more total salary to make up it.

Skinner indeed is top 15 for goals scored in the last 5 years. He's however 61st in points in those same 5 years yet he has the 16th highest cap hit in the league. His season stats last year is pretty consistent with these rankings in that his 40 goals is tied for 12th in the league and he's 66th in the league in points (79th in points per game), but next season he's tied for 13th in salary.

 

His numbers just don't seem comparable at all to be in the same breath as Stamkos. Stamkos before signing his deal had 3 seasons of 90+ points including seasons with 51, 45, 60, and 43 goals on his resume. Stamkos is actually worth his contract even if adjusted to teams with less friendly taxes.

 

4 hours ago, D-Money said:

Switching gears to Nylander...his cap hit is under $7M. That was signed in a $79.5M cap, making his contract less than 8.8% of the cap. He had an extremely productive first 2 seasons, and his percentage of the cap was either much less or right in the wheelhouse of these past RFA signings:

• Paul Stastny (RFA contract signed with COL) - $6.6M, starting with $56.8M cap (11.6%)
• Evgeny Kuznetsov - $7.8M, $75M cap (10.4%)
• Ryan O'Reilly - $7.5M, $73.0M cap (9.7%)
• Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, and Jordan Staal - $6M, $64.3M cap (9.3%)
• Jason Pominville (RFA contract signed with BUF) - $5.3M, $56.8M cap (9.3%)
• Evander Kane (previous contract) - $5.25M, $60M cap (8.8%)
• Matt Duchesne and Logan Couture - $6M, $69M cap (8.7%)
• Dustin Brown - $5.875M, $69M cap (8.5%)
• Brandon Saad and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - $6M, $71.4M cap (8.4%)
• Ryan Kesler (previous contract, signed w/Vancouver) - $5M, $59.4M cap (8.4%)
• James Neal (previous contract) - $5M, $60.0M cap (8.3%)
• Scott Hartnell (2007 RFA contract) - $4.2M, $50.3M cap (8.3%)

 

So Nylander's percentage of cap is pretty much exactly what Couture, Duchesne, and Kane got when they signed their previous RFA contracts. The only difference is, Couture and Duchesne had 2-year bridge deals out of their ELCs, which is a trend that has gone away league wide (Kane didn't have a bridge deal either).

 

Evander Kane has never really lived up to his contracts. He was always paid for potential, which goes to show you have to be careful when going this route.

 

As for Couture and Duchene, you cannot write off the bridge deals. Even if it's less common these days, those guys put in those two years and banked on themselves to earn their next deals. If they went long term to start, they may have been paid less to take the long term deal earlier (less on their resume and buying less UFA years).

 

We will see how Nylander fares, but his first season after his big contract has looked like a dud so far. If Nylander took a bridge and demonstrated consistency or even growth, he may have earned this current contract and maybe even more. He held out and Dubas cracked when he should've just let Nylander sit the year. Now Toronto is in cap hell and all teams should follow suit apparently.

 

Stastny had put up great numbers during his ELC and the key thing is he was a center that looked like he was going to take over the aging Sakic as the #1 guy at some point.

 

Hall and Eberle have been part of an organization that has been handing out bad contracts for a while. At least Hall lived up to contract before it was signed. It set a precedent for RFAs to look at bigger money on their 2nd contracts though.

 

Pretty much the rest of the RFA signings had bridge deals first. Dustin Brown was a signing that was all UFA years which always elevates the price.

 

Context matters.

[theo5789]

11 minutes ago, rekker said:

Guess I'm old fashioned. To be amongst the top two or three paid players on your team I think you should drive the play and be able to play both ends of the rink, win a puck battle or two, have played a playoff game? Carolina had been rumored to be shopping this guy for two years. I see a one dimensional player that careered it in a contract year. This contract will look come back to haunt Buffalo imho.

 

I have a similar thinking. It's fine to be one dimensional, but you just have to be one of the best in that dimension if you're going to be paid in the upper levels of the league. While Skinner has shown to put in goals, he doesn't exactly drive the offense. Someone like Panarin may also be considered one dimensional, but he makes his team better.

 

It's just hard to believe a career high of 63 points lands you 72 million dollars, 40 goals or not for one year. 9 million annually might be alright on a 4, maybe 5, year deal. For 8 years, it should've been no more than 7.5 million a year especially considering there's a NMC foe the entire contract. So even if the deal is set up to be movable, Skinner holds all the cards on where he can end up which restricts from making a reasonable deal.

[D-Money]

27 minutes ago, theo5789 said:

...but next season he's tied for 13th in salary.

For now. That is part of being the latest signing under a rising cap. It will change quickly, once Marner, Panarin, Rantanen, and Karlsson sign new deals... potentially even Bobrovsky and Trouba. And next year he'll get pushed even further down the list if the cap keeps rising.

 

Skinner and Nylander got exactly what quality UFAs and RFAs have got, and will get. It's fair to question if they're as good as some of their contemporaries, and if they're who you'd want to build your team with. Personally, I'd never want my team to sign Skinner at 8 x $9M, but that is the market value for him. And Panarin, who is better, will likely be closer to $11M.

Edited June 11, 2019 by D-Money

[JeremyCuddles]

Watch this guy Erhoff on them. 9mil for Skinner is about 2mil too much. Buffalo is so desperate to be competitive I guess. We'll see how this turns out. 

[theo5789]

7 hours ago, D-Money said:

For now. That is part of being the latest signing under a rising cap. It will change quickly, once Marner, Panarin, Rantanen, and Karlsson sign new deals... potentially even Bobrovsky and Trouba. And next year he'll get pushed even further down the list if the cap keeps rising.

 

Skinner and Nylander got exactly what quality UFAs and RFAs have got, and will get. It's fair to question if they're as good as some of their contemporaries, and if they're who you'd want to build your team with. Personally, I'd never want my team to sign Skinner at 8 x $9M, but that is the market value for him. And Panarin, who is better, will likely be closer to $11M.

He may get bumped down gradually, but he will amongst the top 20-25 paid in the league. Skinner IMO is not a top 20-25 player in the league now nor the future. I understand the market is increasing due to the cap, but if the agents have their way, this Skinner deal is only going to inflate the market to unsustainable levels because he's far overpaid for what he brings. There is no way Skinner's "market value" is worth this contract and is simply a desperation move by Buffalo to retain a player to play on a bottom feeding team. I understand why Buffalo had to do this, but this shouldn't be a benchmark and I hope the rest of the league understands this.

[D-Money]

3 minutes ago, theo5789 said:

He may get bumped down gradually, but he will amongst the top 20-25 paid in the league. Skinner IMO is not a top 20-25 player in the league now nor the future. I understand the market is increasing due to the cap, but if the agents have their way, this Skinner deal is only going to inflate the market to unsustainable levels because he's far overpaid for what he brings. There is no way Skinner's "market value" is worth this contract and is simply a desperation move by Buffalo to retain a player to play on a bottom feeding team. I understand why Buffalo had to do this, but this shouldn't be a benchmark and I hope the rest of the league understands this.

I partially agree with you. Bottom feeders have to pay a premium to keep talent, because players want to win (look no further than what we paid our UFA signings last year). He also got significantly less signing bonus money than most UFAs get, so that drives the total salary up.

 

It's not just Skinner that is setting new benchmarks. The league trend is the top guys are shying away from taking "discounts", and trying to get what the market will bear. That is more like how things are in other leagues, and is just a reality of the new NHL.

[theo5789]

4 hours ago, D-Money said:

I partially agree with you. Bottom feeders have to pay a premium to keep talent, because players want to win (look no further than what we paid our UFA signings last year). He also got significantly less signing bonus money than most UFAs get, so that drives the total salary up.

 

It's not just Skinner that is setting new benchmarks. The league trend is the top guys are shying away from taking "discounts", and trying to get what the market will bear. That is more like how things are in other leagues, and is just a reality of the new NHL.

I get there is going to be inflation and I understand players wanting what they "deserve". This still doesn't take away that this is a bad contract for a player like Skinner and unfortunately he's not a "top guy" IMO. I just hope the league realizes that the Skinner deal is due to a bad team trying to retain their player much like no one decided that 3rd/4th liners are now deserving more because we paid more to bring them onto our bottom team. This is why I keep bringing up context in which some seem to forget and like to make the 1 to 1 direct comparison of deals.

 

Nylander is a prime example of why you shouldn't pay an RFA for their potential by bypassing the bridge. The examples you brought, the players made their case in their 2 year bridge and the teams decided whether it was worth paying them their next deal or not. In Nylander's case, they bypassed the bridge (and held out to do so) and now if he doesn't show up again until closer to contract time, then Toronto will have egg on their face. They had the opportunity to set the precedent for the league to not allow these players to go this route and their team was fine without him. Now because of a few bonehead GMs, they are setting up the league to be trending in an unsustainable direction.