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[Trade] Lightning trade J.T. Miller to Canucks for Marek Mazanec, 2019 3rd-round pick, 2020 conditional 1st-round pick


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8 minutes ago, peaches5 said:

I made this into a thing? I called the trade a cap dump, which it is, and then all of you made it a thing and then one poster refused to read my post because of my opinion which makes them a bigot. People started replying to my posts saying how am I not a bigot and I explained it to them. It has nothing to do with what was received or how I feel about the trade. All it had to was with the terminology being used and people here can't accept when someone doesn't share their opinion. 

 

 

Okay. So, seeing as this was, in your opinion, a “cap dump”, did Jimbo pay too much to the precariously positioned Bolts?

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33 minutes ago, zimmy said:

Okay. So, seeing as this was, in your opinion, a “cap dump”, did Jimbo pay too much to the precariously positioned Bolts?

No, I don't. I think he could have protected the pick better but overall it's a pretty fair trade.

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4 minutes ago, peaches5 said:

No, I don't. I think he could have protected the pick better but overall it's a pretty fair trade.

And with that there can be almost universal agreement. Now, if JB could only squeeze a second out of somebody for Louie, we could have true CDC harmony.

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Not sure there's any point attempting to continue to reason with people about this, but this is my last waste of effort on the matter.

 

Loui Eriksson is not going to return anything.  Period.  LE literally is - a cap dump. 

He does not produce value comparable to his cap hit.

It costs assets to dump what is effectively the gap between his performance and his cap cost - the dead cap - because cap space represents value.  That is what is meant by the term "cap dump".  People can rewrite the term to their own utility all they want - that's not my personal definition - it's my understanding of what the term means, based upon engagement with people  that understand the game.

 

We have this function on these boards that posters can use - it's a block function that enables any poster not to view/read the posts of posters they don't care to.

I suppose that should be called the 'bigot' function.  I don't tend to use it, but there are times when 'discussions' run their full course, are going literally nowhere, and there is really no point continuing to engage in them.  I reserve the right to break out of the huddle and not waste undue time on those 'discussions'.

 

This thread is full of erroneous/uninformed uses of the term 'cap dump' - by posters who also generally attempted to maintain that Miller wasn't worth a 2nd round pick.   Some went so far as to believe he'd cost a 5th round pick.  That may have been an 'opinion' - but opinions can be based on ignorance.  What makes an opinion ignorance?  When we're talking about the trade value of a player, what the actual NHL market dictates represents that player's value - not the 'opinion' of people who have literally no idea who the player is or what type of performance can be expected of them.

 

The reality is that Miller was not going to be acquired by anyone for a 2nd round pick - any more than any team in the NHL is going to give up a 2nd to acquire Loui Eriksson. 

 

The thing is - in spite of relative differences of opinion, there remains an effective common understanding - of player values - among NHL GMs - that make it safe to say that there is no hope in hell any of them would give up a 2nd round pick to take on $6 million Loui Eriksson.   Anyone that takes the time and effort to pay close enough attention realizes this at some point.

 

And by the same measure - there's not a single GM in the NHL that would expect to acquire a player like Miller for a 2nd round pick.  If that were the asking price, there would be a long line of suitors ready to pay it.  I can form the 'opinion' that homes in Vancouver are only worth $100,000 - formulate some 'reasons' and argue that anyone who won't listen to me is a bigot.  It doesn't change the fact that there is a larger, market that determines value - and that the actual value of those homes is determined by what people are willing and prepared to pay for homes.  Some people understand and 'read' the market, others don't.

 

If a poster states an 'opinion' that Elias Pettersson is an "elite shutdown center" and another poster points out that Pettersson does not in fact play that role - the first poster can argue until they are blue in the face that Pettersson is a 'shutdown center' - can rewrite the definition of what that means and maintain endlessly that their 'opinion' is as valid as anyone else's.   The problem, however, is that the term shutdown center has a particular meaning in the context of hockey - a meaning that is generally  accepted, by relative consensus - to use the term as it is understood - to represent a particular role.  One that Elias Petterson does not play.  In fact, his coach did his best to avoid matching Pettersson up against Ryan O'Reilly throughout game 5.  And Petttersson is a player that, like the Sedins, his coach attempts to provide with the best opportunities possible to enable him to score.  Decidedly not a 'shutdown center' - however that does not stop the odd Canucks Army hockey analyst from misutilizing the term, and applying it to Pettersson.  That's his 'opinion' - one that is near consensus rejected by anyone that actually understands the game.  There are probably words to describe people like that, words I'm not going to resort to here.

 

If the Canucks were to decide to trade Bo Horvat for a return - as opposed to spend assets to get rid of Loui Eriksson's contract - that would not make Bo Horvat a "cap dump".  Period.  Bo Horvat's performance relative to cap his does not leave a gap with that cap hit significantly exceeding the value of that performance. Of course, there is grey area and debate within reasonable parameters - however, when it comes to referring to players like Horvat as a potential cap dump - or the fantasy hypothesis of receiving a 2nd round pick for Loui Eriksson - we depart reasoned debate and enter....(the point at which it becomes a waste of time to continue to engage).

 

Not bothering to continue to argue about it doesn't make a person a "bigot".   Continuing to argue about it - has been a considerable waste of my time - something I'm attempting to 'value' more highly than spending it on discussion with people that refuse to work with the consensus received meaning of words/terms - in this case "cap dump".  Miller aint one.  Period.  Not by any hockey person's reasonable definition of the term.   Miller's performance represents more relative value than his cap hit.  There is no dump there.  Every single trade involving players under contract involves cap moving one way and/or the other -  to refer to contracts like his as a "cap dump" renders the term literally meaningless - as is the point of continuing to argue this.  Call me a bigot if you think it serves you - but this thread continues to be filled with 'opinions' that simply don't hold water.  We may as well argue that a 1st round pick represents negative value - because when the Canucks paid that price+, it was because Miller represented his full cap value, and arguably more - or the real world NHL market would not have dictated that price.  People here that thought they had a better take on Miller's value than the Canucks did - most of them have, correctly, abandoned those opinions by now.

 

 

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19 hours ago, peaches5 said:

I made this into a thing? I called the trade a cap dump, which it is, and then all of you made it a thing and then one poster refused to read my post because of my opinion which makes them a bigot. People started replying to my posts saying how am I not a bigot and I explained it to them. It has nothing to do with what was received or how I feel about the trade. All it had to was with the terminology being used and people here can't accept when someone doesn't share their opinion. 

Personally, I don't really care how this trade is labelled, other than it is a win for Vancouver and to a lesser extent for TB as well (as it stands atm). If TB got something out of it (cap space or w/e) then good for them. TB might not be where they are without this trade, and the Canucks (likely) wouldn't be where they are right now without Miller's points and leadership. :)

 

                                                              regards,  G.

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Another way this trade becomes interesting is wouldn't Miller at that time be comparable to what you could expect if you trade Boeser right now, like some here want to do?

So a low first, a third, and a lame prospect for Boeser.

Hardly seems worth it...for us, I mean. We'd have to find somebody not as as smart as Jim was to offer us more.

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10 hours ago, MoneypuckOverlord said:

one of his best trades a long side the Vanek for Motte trade.  Pearson for Guddbranson another good trade.

Yes, Miller, Pearson, Motte. All similar styles in that they are a pain to play against. Easy for the JB naysayers to see what he was building towards. Too bad Ferland wasn't in the lineup as well.

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14 hours ago, canucklehead80 said:

Well, if we don't advance past the 2nd round, looks like that 1st rounder sits at 24. No problem there.:gocan:

Agreed. I was 1 of those poster who was not a fan of this trade, largely because it had a potential lottery pick involved, now that we know that isn't going to happen...we have to be very happy with the deal. JT Miller deserves an A on his jersey next season for sure imo. He seems like a true leader on our team and you have to love how he plays game in game out.

 

Thoroughly impressed by his play since game 1, was not expecting that. Now, to make a similar trade for a top 4 RHD!?

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On 8/20/2020 at 12:55 PM, peaches5 said:

They didn't have really have other options. JT Miller was the only one of their top 9 forwards that didn't have a NTC - he actually did but it wasn't kicking in until July 1. I do agree they decided to trade Miller because of what they were getting and they were never going to get that from one of the players they would have to try and force to waive their NTC which they may not have done... That said it doesn't change the fact he was traded to free up cap space which makes it a cap dump trade. 

Add to the fact that Jim Benning isn't the greatest negotiator. Geez, you call a team WITH CAP PROBLEMS, and offer right away a first round pick? You couldn't wiggle a better deal, like maybe offering a 2nd or a 3rd in the beginning. Its like posting something on craigslist to sell, and you put a "hope and prayer" price and Benning calls, doesn't even ask "hey want to knock off 20$" just offers you the price that you want. Thats my problem with the trade, if it was another team with no cap issues like a Carolina Hurricanes, if JT went for a 1st, then thats the cost of doing business. TB had to unload a big time contract and Jim didn't bother trying to wittle the price down

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2 minutes ago, filthycanuck said:

Add to the fact that Jim Benning isn't the greatest negotiator. Geez, you call a team WITH CAP PROBLEMS, and offer right away a first round pick? You couldn't wiggle a better deal, like maybe offering a 2nd or a 3rd in the beginning. Its like posting something on craigslist to sell, and you put a "hope and prayer" price and Benning calls, doesn't even ask "hey want to knock off 20$" just offers you the price that you want. Thats my problem with the trade, if it was another team with no cap issues like a Carolina Hurricanes, if JT went for a 1st, then thats the cost of doing business. TB had to unload a big time contract and Jim didn't bother trying to wittle the price down

So you were privy to the negotiations?

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56 minutes ago, UKNuck96 said:

So you were privy to the negotiations?

Someone tweeted, I think it was Dhaliwal and said Benning straight up offered a 1st right away. Regardless, JT Miller his last season in TB was absolutely NOT worth a 1st round pick. He was 3rd - 4th liner that was a healthy scratch some parts of the season and someone offered you a 1st round pick, you'd say no?

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33 minutes ago, filthycanuck said:

Someone tweeted, I think it was Dhaliwal and said Benning straight up offered a 1st right away. Regardless, JT Miller his last season in TB was absolutely NOT worth a 1st round pick. He was 3rd - 4th liner that was a healthy scratch some parts of the season and someone offered you a 1st round pick, you'd say no?

There is probably some context missing though from that. It’s possible there were other teams sniffing around for miller (or another player making miller trade not essential for tamp) and went in with it to get the deal closed and done quickly. 
 

if you negotiate for the best return and try and put the other team over the barrel, you risk losing out to someone else. 
 

its unlikely he went in with a 1st without knowing some ground level info 

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On 8/22/2020 at 12:03 AM, canucklehead80 said:

Well, if we don't advance past the 2nd round, looks like that 1st rounder sits at 24. No problem there.:gocan:

Nope that pick is 20th overall unless we beat Vegas which would make it 28. They do not re-order the pick for the losers in the first two rounds. 

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9 hours ago, filthycanuck said:

Add to the fact that Jim Benning isn't the greatest negotiator. Geez, you call a team WITH CAP PROBLEMS, and offer right away a first round pick? You couldn't wiggle a better deal, like maybe offering a 2nd or a 3rd in the beginning. Its like posting something on craigslist to sell, and you put a "hope and prayer" price and Benning calls, doesn't even ask "hey want to knock off 20$" just offers you the price that you want. Thats my problem with the trade, if it was another team with no cap issues like a Carolina Hurricanes, if JT went for a 1st, then thats the cost of doing business. TB had to unload a big time contract and Jim didn't bother trying to wittle the price down

Not that it hasn't been discussiod a bazillion times already in this thread, but just for fun. Possible reasons why JB offered a 1st rounder for Miller:

  • He was so high on Miller that he didn't want to risk losing him to another team.
  • Considering the package of skill, physicality, mentality, leadership, age, contract and personality he felt a mid/low first-rounder was a fair price to pay.
  • Having future transactions in mind he felt lowballing and trying to squeeze out every last bit would be detrimental to his reputation as trading partner and thus not worth it.
  • He knew Miller would have a breakout year (because he's psychic)
  • He was sure that the team would go deep in the playoffs in one of the following two seasons and considering the depth of his prospect pool he decided to could go without a low 1st-round pick.
  • He wanted to piss off CDC.
  • All of the above (after realizing that it is not a video game with clear-cut game mechanics that can be exploited)
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13 minutes ago, joe-max said:

Not that it hasn't been discussiod a bazillion times already in this thread, but just for fun. Possible reasons why JB offered a 1st rounder for Miller:

  • He was so high on Miller that he didn't want to risk losing him to another team.
  • Considering the package of skill, physicality, mentality, leadership, age, contract and personality he felt a mid/low first-rounder was a fair price to pay.
  • Having future transactions in mind he felt lowballing and trying to squeeze out every last bit would be detrimental to his reputation as trading partner and thus not worth it.
  • He knew Miller would have a breakout year (because he's psychic)
  • He was sure that the team would go deep in the playoffs in one of the following two seasons and considering the depth of his prospect pool he decided to could go without a low 1st-round pick.
  • He wanted to piss off CDC.
  • All of the above (after realizing that it is not a video game with clear-cut game mechanics that can be exploited)

You forgot:

 

- Other teams were also highly likely competing to acquire him and that price may have already been set before he picked up the phone.

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