Nils Hoglander | #21 | LW

[GoldenAlien]

 

[Phat Fingers]

On 9/11/2019 at 1:51 AM, Ihatetomatoes said:

Past or present players on this team  that went through the CHL to the AHL to the Canucks in their 1st years in the AHL. (More than 15 games)

 

Jannick Hansen 34pts 72 games .47ppg

Cody Hodgson 30pts 52 games .57ppg

Michael Grabner 44pts in 74 games .59ppg

Sven Baertchi 26pts in 32 games .81ppg

Jay Beagle 36pts in 64 games .56 ppg

Michael Ferland 18pts in 25 games .72ppg

Tanner Pearson 47pts in 64 games .73ppg

Brandon Sutter 12pts in 22 games .54ppg

 

Like I said it's rare to find a player that scored less than .4ppg in their 1st year in the AHL go on to NHL success whether they are 4th liners or 1st liners.  Please show me these guys you are hinting to on our team

 

 

 

 

 

Bo horvat, since your including  small sample sizes, Jake Virtannen, Rousel, Burrows (who, God forbid was an ECHLer) etc.  Alot of players you haven't mentioned have become successful NHLers without scoring above .4 pts per game.  

 

One critical point you have always failed to show is players that have made it.  If you want to prove that it is 'rare' then show me how 'rare' it is.  

 

The players you list all prove that scoring above .4 ppg improves your odds of becoming an NHLer.  

 

Your hypothesis is not that, but how 'rare' it is to becoming even a 4th liner without scoring above .4ppg.  

 

Look, if you argue that it's better odds, statistically, that a player becomes a successful NHLer if they score. 4 ppg in their rookie year in the AHL, absolutely no arguements.  

 

But that's not your premise.  All you are showing me is the obvious.  You need to prove the opposite point to prove your fundamental point. 

 

It's your fundamentalist wording.  You speak in certain terms.  There are plenty of examples of players scoring above .4 ppg and not making the NHL.  Just as there are plenty of examples of players not scoring .4ppg and making the NHL.  

 

Added to that, so much more has to be factored.  Two off the top are what age the player is when coming into the AHL and how good the team was that they played with.  

 

Does Gads have it in him to become a top 6 player like some of us hoped at his draft? Not looking good, for sure, but not certain, cue Burrows.  He was a late 2nd rounder and has the make up of being able to be a good bottom six player if his skating can be improved.  Fair chance of seeing this happen, not likely,  absolutely not certain.

 

Lind, higher pick, bigger expectations for sure.  Disappointing first season.  No doubt.  Some silver linings in that grey sky, he was injured early (so was Gads I think) and in the final 3rd of the season he had noticable improvements.  

 

Other factors.  Utica had a pop gun offence that could only be lifted with personal moves IMO.  Who was going to play with Lind?  Dahlen?  

 

Lind showed that he can be the primary producer on a depleted team in the CHL.  That's alot to expect from him at the AHL with a depleted offence as a rookie.  He isn't Ep40, who did that for us at the NHL.  

 

Can Lind become a top six player in the NHL, uncertain.  Willing to give him a but more time prior to making a judgement.  

 

Does Lind have the tools to be a middle six player in the NHL, fair.  Some similarities to how Jake faired in his earlier pro days.  Mostly about unmet expectations.  Sure.  

 

 

We are talking about young players developing into pro players or not.  Maybe as a group, we should avoid writing them off too soon.  Just my point of view.  

 

[Ihatetomatoes]

3 hours ago, Phat Fingers said:

Bo horvat, since your including  small sample sizes, Jake Virtannen, Rousel, Burrows (who, God forbid was an ECHLer) etc.  Alot of players you haven't mentioned have become successful NHLers without scoring above .4 pts per game.  

 

One critical point you have always failed to show is players that have made it.  If you want to prove that it is 'rare' then show me how 'rare' it is.  

 

The players you list all prove that scoring above .4 ppg improves your odds of becoming an NHLer.  

 

Your hypothesis is not that, but how 'rare' it is to becoming even a 4th liner without scoring above .4ppg.  

 

Look, if you argue that it's better odds, statistically, that a player becomes a successful NHLer if they score. 4 ppg in their rookie year in the AHL, absolutely no arguements.  

 

But that's not your premise.  All you are showing me is the obvious.  You need to prove the opposite point to prove your fundamental point. 

 

It's your fundamentalist wording.  You speak in certain terms.  There are plenty of examples of players scoring above .4 ppg and not making the NHL.  Just as there are plenty of examples of players not scoring .4ppg and making the NHL.  

 

Added to that, so much more has to be factored.  Two off the top are what age the player is when coming into the AHL and how good the team was that they played with.  

 

Does Gads have it in him to become a top 6 player like some of us hoped at his draft? Not looking good, for sure, but not certain, cue Burrows.  He was a late 2nd rounder and has the make up of being able to be a good bottom six player if his skating can be improved.  Fair chance of seeing this happen, not likely,  absolutely not certain.

 

Lind, higher pick, bigger expectations for sure.  Disappointing first season.  No doubt.  Some silver linings in that grey sky, he was injured early (so was Gads I think) and in the final 3rd of the season he had noticable improvements.  

 

Other factors.  Utica had a pop gun offence that could only be lifted with personal moves IMO.  Who was going to play with Lind?  Dahlen?  

 

Lind showed that he can be the primary producer on a depleted team in the CHL.  That's alot to expect from him at the AHL with a depleted offence as a rookie.  He isn't Ep40, who did that for us at the NHL.  

 

Can Lind become a top six player in the NHL, uncertain.  Willing to give him a but more time prior to making a judgement.  

 

Does Lind have the tools to be a middle six player in the NHL, fair.  Some similarities to how Jake faired in his earlier pro days.  Mostly about unmet expectations.  Sure.  

 

 

We are talking about young players developing into pro players or not.  Maybe as a group, we should avoid writing them off too soon.  Just my point of view.  

 

I didn't speak in certain terms, I just said it was rare, which is true.

 

Guys like Burrows and Rousell are rare cases, Horvat played 5 games. Virtanen development was just horribly mishandled and could end up being a good example of a guy that doesn't do well in his 1st AHL year but considering the amount of players on the team that didn't struggle, even guys like Beagle or Ferland I think my point still stands that is quite rare for guys to struggle mightily in their 1st few years and go onto success. I've spent quite a lot of time going through players that have gone into NHL success from the CHL through the AHL and it is quite surprising how even 3rd and 4th line players almost always score more than .4ppg. There are obviously guys that do break the mold but I stand by my point that it is rare and the odds of Lind or Gad going on to NHL success are incredibly low when looking at the historical evidence. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Phat Fingers]

8 minutes ago, Ihatetomatoes said:

I didn't speak in certain terms, I just said it was rare, which is true.

 

Guys like Burrows and Rousell are rare cases, Horvat played 5 games. Virtanen development was just horribly mishandled and could end up being a good example of a guy that doesn't do well in his 1st AHL year but considering the amount of players on the team that didn't struggle, even guys like Beagle or Ferland I think my point still stands that is quite rare for guys to struggle mightily in their 1st few years and go onto success. I've spent quite a lot of time going through players that have gone into NHL success from the CHL through the AHL and it is quite surprising how even 3rd and 4th line players almost always score more than .4ppg. There are obviously guys that do break the mold but I stand by my point that it is rare and the odds of Lind or Gad going on to NHL success are incredibly low when looking at the historical evidence. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You know what's funny IHT, I didn't have to look up any stats to pick 4 guys off our current roster without thinking.  So it's not rare.  It's just less likely than making the NHL with AHL rookie pt totals above. 4ppg.  

 

BTW, Sutter played 12 games, Bo played 5, small sample size meet small sample size.  

 

Since both Lind and Gads had some legit issues IE injuries and and in Gads case, he wasn't prepared mentally and/or physically for the toughness of the AHL.  

 

Let's say that these areas are addressed in the off season and both players come in healthy and ready for this year.  They both surpass the .4ppg mark and maybe by  wide margin.

 

Based on your premise, neither will make the NHL, cause it's their rookie season that matters statistically and only the rookie year.  They could both go on to have 60pt seasons and not be anymore likely, by your premise, to make the NHL.  

 

Doesn't that sound a bit ridiculous?  

 

'Thump.'

 

That's the sound of a mic dropping...  

 

 

[Rollieo Del Fuego]

Hogwash....every player is different....

 

...Hoglander forum...

[Ihatetomatoes]

5 hours ago, Phat Fingers said:

You know what's funny IHT, I didn't have to look up any stats to pick 4 guys off our current roster without thinking.  So it's not rare.  It's just less likely than making the NHL with AHL rookie pt totals above. 4ppg.  

 

BTW, Sutter played 12 games, Bo played 5, small sample size meet small sample size.  

 

Since both Lind and Gads had some legit issues IE injuries and and in Gads case, he wasn't prepared mentally and/or physically for the toughness of the AHL.  

 

Let's say that these areas are addressed in the off season and both players come in healthy and ready for this year.  They both surpass the .4ppg mark and maybe by  wide margin.

 

Based on your premise, neither will make the NHL, cause it's their rookie season that matters statistically and only the rookie year.  They could both go on to have 60pt seasons and not be anymore likely, by your premise, to make the NHL.  

 

Doesn't that sound a bit ridiculous?  

 

'Thump.'

 

That's the sound of a mic dropping...  

 

 

Lol.  Did you really just mic drop at that? Pretty sad.

 

I'd love to continue the discussion but it is Hoglander talk. I'm routing for Lind and Gad either way. 

[Tre Mac]

13 minutes ago, Ihatetomatoes said:

That's the sound of a mic dropping...  

You Shure?

 

[Kanukfanatic]

13 hours ago, Phat Fingers said:

Bo horvat, since your including  small sample sizes, Jake Virtannen, Rousel, Burrows (who, God forbid was an ECHLer) etc.  Alot of players you haven't mentioned have become successful NHLers without scoring above .4 pts per game.  

 

One critical point you have always failed to show is players that have made it.  If you want to prove that it is 'rare' then show me how 'rare' it is.  

 

The players you list all prove that scoring above .4 ppg improves your odds of becoming an NHLer.  

 

Your hypothesis is not that, but how 'rare' it is to becoming even a 4th liner without scoring above .4ppg.  

 

Look, if you argue that it's better odds, statistically, that a player becomes a successful NHLer if they score. 4 ppg in their rookie year in the AHL, absolutely no arguements.  

 

But that's not your premise.  All you are showing me is the obvious.  You need to prove the opposite point to prove your fundamental point. 

 

It's your fundamentalist wording.  You speak in certain terms.  There are plenty of examples of players scoring above .4 ppg and not making the NHL.  Just as there are plenty of examples of players not scoring .4ppg and making the NHL.  

 

Added to that, so much more has to be factored.  Two off the top are what age the player is when coming into the AHL and how good the team was that they played with.  

 

Does Gads have it in him to become a top 6 player like some of us hoped at his draft? Not looking good, for sure, but not certain, cue Burrows.  He was a late 2nd rounder and has the make up of being able to be a good bottom six player if his skating can be improved.  Fair chance of seeing this happen, not likely,  absolutely not certain.

 

Lind, higher pick, bigger expectations for sure.  Disappointing first season.  No doubt.  Some silver linings in that grey sky, he was injured early (so was Gads I think) and in the final 3rd of the season he had noticable improvements.  

 

Other factors.  Utica had a pop gun offence that could only be lifted with personal moves IMO.  Who was going to play with Lind?  Dahlen?  

 

Lind showed that he can be the primary producer on a depleted team in the CHL.  That's alot to expect from him at the AHL with a depleted offence as a rookie.  He isn't Ep40, who did that for us at the NHL.  

 

Can Lind become a top six player in the NHL, uncertain.  Willing to give him a but more time prior to making a judgement.  

 

Does Lind have the tools to be a middle six player in the NHL, fair.  Some similarities to how Jake faired in his earlier pro days.  Mostly about unmet expectations.  Sure.  

 

 

We are talking about young players developing into pro players or not.  Maybe as a group, we should avoid writing them off too soon.  Just my point of view.  

 

Excellent reasoning. Every one of us can pick the stats that fit our narrative and that is exactly what was done.

 

We have no idea if the premise was accurate or not.

[Kanukfanatic]

10 hours ago, Ihatetomatoes said:

I didn't speak in certain terms, I just said it was rare, which is true.

 

Guys like Burrows and Rousell are rare cases, Horvat played 5 games. Virtanen development was just horribly mishandled and could end up being a good example of a guy that doesn't do well in his 1st AHL year but considering the amount of players on the team that didn't struggle, even guys like Beagle or Ferland I think my point still stands that is quite rare for guys to struggle mightily in their 1st few years and go onto success. I've spent quite a lot of time going through players that have gone into NHL success from the CHL through the AHL and it is quite surprising how even 3rd and 4th line players almost always score more than .4ppg. There are obviously guys that do break the mold but I stand by my point that it is rare and the odds of Lind or Gad going on to NHL success are incredibly low when looking at the historical evidence. 

 

Then show the evidence as Phat Fingers said. Otherwise, it is just one more narrative in a sea of narratives.  Btw I have no stake on either side.  I just like to see proof when there is a narrative.

 

Although, just like most of you, I get caught up in the online world and type things with no evidence too sometimes! 

Edited September 13, 2019 by Kanukfanatic

[Ihatetomatoes]

32 minutes ago, Kanukfanatic said:

Then show the evidence as Phat Fingers said. Otherwise, it is just one more narrative in a sea of narratives.  Btw I have no stake on either side.  I just like to see proof when there is a narrative.

 

Although, just like most of you, I get caught up in the online world and type things with no evidence too sometimes! 

"no evidence too sometimes"

 

I wish I saved the research I did last year. After watching Lind and Gad struggle so much I went out to find other players that went to the AHL in their D+2 seasons from the CHL and put up low numbers in the hope of finding a trend that it is completely normal for young guys to struggle to make the jump from the CHL to the AHL at such a young age. 

 

Unfortunately time after time no matter the player if they went on to NHL success they almost always put up more than .5ppg. You can find a few guys who like Burrows who went the ECHL route or an undrafted guy like Rousell who basically pested his way into the NHL but I just found it was actually so rare that a player went onto NHL success after struggling in the AHL, especially in cases like Lind and Gad who are in their D +2

 

Now obviously this doesn't mean that Lind or Gad are write-offs like I said I'm just saying the narrative that it's normal for guys to struggle in their 1st years in the AHL and go onto NHL success is just wrong.

[Phat Fingers]

9 hours ago, Ihatetomatoes said:

"no evidence too sometimes"

 

I wish I saved the research I did last year. After watching Lind and Gad struggle so much I went out to find other players that went to the AHL in their D+2 seasons from the CHL and put up low numbers in the hope of finding a trend that it is completely normal for young guys to struggle to make the jump from the CHL to the AHL at such a young age. 

 

Unfortunately time after time no matter the player if they went on to NHL success they almost always put up more than .5ppg. You can find a few guys who like Burrows who went the ECHL route or an undrafted guy like Rousell who basically pested his way into the NHL but I just found it was actually so rare that a player went onto NHL success after struggling in the AHL, especially in cases like Lind and Gad who are in their D +2

 

Now obviously this doesn't mean that Lind or Gad are write-offs like I said I'm just saying the narrative that it's normal for guys to struggle in their 1st years in the AHL and go onto NHL success is just wrong.

4 or 5  guys on our current roster have or are doing it right now.  JV, Bo, Rousell, Motte and Schaller.  

 

Obviously Schaller is weak, Bo is a smaller sample size, but they all got the criteria.  

 

So is it normal to struggle in your first year pro, yes.  Is it the average experience, maybe not, but it is certainly common.  Does it bode well for the prospect to struggle, no.  Can they still turn things around, yes.  

 

Kicking it back to Hogslander.  He isn't going to struggle.  The kid is a fitness beast and could probably start his own NHL off season training camp.  

 

The difference between Hogslander and our CHL alumni is that he us already playing against men.  Ditto for Podz.  Podz would be playing 20 plus minutes a night in the CHL racking up points and destroying everything in his way.  Easy.  

 

Looking at JV and Gads, two guys that play a similar physical game, they both coasted thru CHL hockey, only to struggle adjusting that physical brand to competition that could do it back to them. 

 

Skill is a premium atm, Hogslander would likely be in our top six based on skill alone atm.  Not bad for a 2nd rounder.  

 

[Phat Fingers]

14 hours ago, Ihatetomatoes said:

Lol.  Did you really just mic drop at that? Pretty sad.

 

I'd love to continue the discussion but it is Hoglander talk. I'm routing for Lind and Gad either way. 

Yup.  Just got power back after hurucaine Dorion.  A bit cabin happy at the moment.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ray_Cathode]

On 9/12/2019 at 4:56 AM, Phat Fingers said:

Bo horvat, since your including  small sample sizes, Jake Virtannen, Rousel, Burrows (who, God forbid was an ECHLer) etc.  Alot of players you haven't mentioned have become successful NHLers without scoring above .4 pts per game.  

 

One critical point you have always failed to show is players that have made it.  If you want to prove that it is 'rare' then show me how 'rare' it is.  

 

The players you list all prove that scoring above .4 ppg improves your odds of becoming an NHLer.  

 

Your hypothesis is not that, but how 'rare' it is to becoming even a 4th liner without scoring above .4ppg.  

 

Look, if you argue that it's better odds, statistically, that a player becomes a successful NHLer if they score. 4 ppg in their rookie year in the AHL, absolutely no arguements.  

 

But that's not your premise.  All you are showing me is the obvious.  You need to prove the opposite point to prove your fundamental point. 

 

It's your fundamentalist wording.  You speak in certain terms.  There are plenty of examples of players scoring above .4 ppg and not making the NHL.  Just as there are plenty of examples of players not scoring .4ppg and making the NHL.  

 

Added to that, so much more has to be factored.  Two off the top are what age the player is when coming into the AHL and how good the team was that they played with.  

 

Does Gads have it in him to become a top 6 player like some of us hoped at his draft? Not looking good, for sure, but not certain, cue Burrows.  He was a late 2nd rounder and has the make up of being able to be a good bottom six player if his skating can be improved.  Fair chance of seeing this happen, not likely,  absolutely not certain.

 

Lind, higher pick, bigger expectations for sure.  Disappointing first season.  No doubt.  Some silver linings in that grey sky, he was injured early (so was Gads I think) and in the final 3rd of the season he had noticable improvements.  

 

Other factors.  Utica had a pop gun offence that could only be lifted with personal moves IMO.  Who was going to play with Lind?  Dahlen?  

 

Lind showed that he can be the primary producer on a depleted team in the CHL.  That's alot to expect from him at the AHL with a depleted offence as a rookie.  He isn't Ep40, who did that for us at the NHL.  

 

Can Lind become a top six player in the NHL, uncertain.  Willing to give him a but more time prior to making a judgement.  

 

Does Lind have the tools to be a middle six player in the NHL, fair.  Some similarities to how Jake faired in his earlier pro days.  Mostly about unmet expectations.  Sure.  

 

 

We are talking about young players developing into pro players or not.  Maybe as a group, we should avoid writing them off too soon.  Just my point of view.  

 

Add to that that Gadjovich and Lind are both wingers and that when Gaudette was not there they were woefully thin in the middle.  Hard to get production from the wings with a vacuum in the middle. Things were so tough there that they had to convert guys that were primarily wingers to play centre - Yasek, MacEwen, Gaunce.

[gttxc]

Your all doing it wrong.  You have to compare the nhl players that made it with all the players from the AHL that didn’t make it.  I ain’t doing it, lol, that’s a ton of work but this is the best link I could find.

 

https://canucksarmy.com/2015/07/24/establishing-ahl-baseline-s-for-prospect-success/

 

And then y’all arguing over semantics for the sake of winning a discussion...

 

 

[Ihatetomatoes]

3 hours ago, Phat Fingers said:

4 or 5  guys on our current roster have or are doing it right now.  JV, Bo, Rousell, Motte and Schaller.  

 

Obviously Schaller is weak, Bo is a smaller sample size, but they all got the criteria.  

 

So is it normal to struggle in your first year pro, yes.  Is it the average experience, maybe not, but it is certainly common.  Does it bode well for the prospect to struggle, no.  Can they still turn things around, yes.  

 

Kicking it back to Hogslander.  He isn't going to struggle.  The kid is a fitness beast and could probably start his own NHL off season training camp.  

 

The difference between Hogslander and our CHL alumni is that he us already playing against men.  Ditto for Podz.  Podz would be playing 20 plus minutes a night in the CHL racking up points and destroying everything in his way.  Easy.  

 

Looking at JV and Gads, two guys that play a similar physical game, they both coasted thru CHL hockey, only to struggle adjusting that physical brand to competition that could do it back to them. 

 

Skill is a premium atm, Hogslander would likely be in our top six based on skill alone atm.  Not bad for a 2nd rounder.  

 

I know I said I was over it as it's Hog talk but Motte and Schaller didn't come out of the CHL and Bo played 5 games. Rousell went undrafted and played his first AHL season at 22. 

 

JV could be argued that he's a good example but he had already played a full NHL season and had his development horribly mismanaged. 

 

There isn't 4 or 5 guys on our roster that fit the criteria of guys making the jump from the CHL to the AHL in their D +2 or even +3 seasons

Edited September 13, 2019 by Ihatetomatoes

[Kanukfanatic]

6 hours ago, Phat Fingers said:

4 or 5  guys on our current roster have or are doing it right now.  JV, Bo, Rousell, Motte and Schaller.  

 

Obviously Schaller is weak, Bo is a smaller sample size, but they all got the criteria.  

 

So is it normal to struggle in your first year pro, yes.  Is it the average experience, maybe not, but it is certainly common.  Does it bode well for the prospect to struggle, no.  Can they still turn things around, yes.  

 

Kicking it back to Hogslander.  He isn't going to struggle.  The kid is a fitness beast and could probably start his own NHL off season training camp.  

 

The difference between Hogslander and our CHL alumni is that he us already playing against men.  Ditto for Podz.  Podz would be playing 20 plus minutes a night in the CHL racking up points and destroying everything in his way.  Easy.  

 

Looking at JV and Gads, two guys that play a similar physical game, they both coasted thru CHL hockey, only to struggle adjusting that physical brand to competition that could do it back to them. 

 

Skill is a premium atm, Hogslander would likely be in our top six based on skill alone atm.  Not bad for a 2nd rounder.  

 

No S in Hoglander...  

[Phat Fingers]

17 hours ago, Kanukfanatic said:

No S in Hoglander...  

Single Hog, not plural.  Got it.  Guess it would be Swinelander if it was plural.  

[-Vintage Canuck-]

 

[canuckledraggin]

Hoglander gets his 1st goal of the season. It's great to have another player to follow in the SHL. The atmosphere in those buildings is really fun to see. #21 in green is like a pitbull when the puck is near him and he isn't afraid to go to the corners to battle. His puckhandling is also very good and he's getting powerplay time. It's going to be great to follow him this season.

 

 

[RetroCanuck]

Looks like we have another PPG player in the SHL!