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A Fair Criticism of Jim Benning

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14 minutes ago, Alflives said:

I was pissed at that draft too.  But JB, in a round about way, did build a really good young core.  I think it’s time to go all in and support that young core with the best players JB can get.  When the Hawks were rebuilding they drafted Cam Barker and Jack Skille at 3 and 8 OA.  Still they got P. Kane and J Toews at 1 and 3 OA.  And they got Keith in round two.  My point is teams make mistakes, and still can win if their hits outweigh those mistakes.  I think JB’s hits way outweigh his mistakes.  Our team is going to be really good for the next decade,  

This thanks Alf.  I read an article today predicting the best playoff teams over the next few years...and was pleasantly surprised to see Van at 14.   This was also written BEFORE Myers and Miller and Benn (who’s considered a bargain) came by THN before the playoffs started this year.    I’m sure they’d move us up a few places now and bump a few teams around since the draft and free agency.

 

No GM hits on all their firsts, and no GM misses out on a surprise pick either (assuming they make a few drafts and your not EDM). 

 

Benning has picked the BPA the past three drafts or since OJ, so maybe he learned his lesson.   He’s also been cautious when it comes to UFA signings since LE so maybe he learned from that too.  For our case as fans, let’s hope so.

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1 hour ago, IBatch said:

Benning has picked the BPA the past three drafts or since OJ, so maybe he learned his lesson.   He’s also been cautious when it comes to UFA signings since LE so maybe he learned from that too.  For our case as fans, let’s hope so.

We've nearly had back-to-back Calder winners with Boeser coming close before his injury. Next season we could have that same trajectory with Hughes. This is a first in Canucks history. 

 

If OJ pans out, Tryamkin returns and excels, Podcolzin becomes a star, etc, Lockwood, Woo ... it'll make up for certain UFA frustrations and that 1st with Miller. We are playing a numbers game between drafting and UFAs. The Miller signing is a much better bridge to a higher level of competitiveness as the drafted emerge.

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6 hours ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

Too late, friend. Too late.

 

I’ve embraced the mismanaged Accidental Tank era-turned spend your way out of trouble to compete with a half-baked rebuild product as to salvage what went well, while turning the page on what went wrong. Might as well get some miles out of EP and the other two or three pillars of this rebuild by trading for it, because drafting it sure as puck hasn’t worked, outside of the obvious few high picks. 

 

 

 

It’s too early to be sure about that.  I’ve said before only 7 guys past the second round have played 200 games for the Canucks or other teams that we’ve drafted since 2001 and half those guys were chumps.  Benning has Tree, AG, and a few other possibilities out there that could break that measly trend.     It’s those guys that usually make or break a rebuild.  EDM for example despite their wealth of early picks, and Buffalo for that matter and even CAR haven’t (of course their on the rise now) don’t have much to 

speak of either past round two.

 

Of course you can’t hit on a good one if you don’t play but the odds are bad.  7.5% of all picks combined past the second round haven’t made it (for us).  And only 4% have been decent-good.

 

I really wish some CDCer would be willing to spend the time to illustrate this in a way to make people understand that picks can be overrated.  

 

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19 hours ago, Borvat said:

We could use the Red Wing model but that hasn't seemed to fair very well either - Chicago has struggled as well among others.  Rebuilds are not easy to complete successfully.  Especially when you have 2 aging superstars (Sedins) who are your best assets that you can not move.  While at the same time trying to prop up the team to make it "reasonably" competitive.  Completely opposing objectives in most regards. 

 

However, I look at the future of this young team and the prospects in the system and have hope.  Just a couple more years of staying the course and I believe the future is bright.  I am hopeful they miss the playoffs this year and make one more complete draft.  The cupboards are no longer bare.

The Red Wing model wasn't very good until  Mike Ilitch took over as owner. They floundered like many teams until they drafted Yzerman in 1983 i believe. Then they just out spent everyone else to become and stay competitive. If you want a better example of how to go about a good rebuild have a look at Colorado who are building a massive talent base especially at D.

Every team will go about rebuilding differently. Trying to build from the Center Ice position and drafting what some call BPA every year without regard for positional needs will get you a good team but will leave you with holes. At some point you need to find the pieces you are missing and draft them regardless of the criticism you may face.

Yzerman did it this year with a selection of the Defenseman they wanted.  Benning did it with OJ. The big issue has been Juolevi's injuries that have held him back. If he had been healthy and played well people would have less issue with the pick.

I agree the future is brighter today than a few years back. You are spot on when you say it is difficult to balance an aging core with trying to stay competitive. We are past that now. Now we need a few of the prospects to over perform.

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13 hours ago, IBatch said:

It’s too early to be sure about that.  I’ve said before only 7 guys past the second round have played 200 games for the Canucks or other teams that we’ve drafted since 2001 and half those guys were chumps.  Benning has Tree, AG, and a few other possibilities out there that could break that measly trend.     It’s those guys that usually make or break a rebuild.  EDM for example despite their wealth of early picks, and Buffalo for that matter and even CAR haven’t (of course their on the rise now) don’t have much to 

speak of either past round two.

 

Of course you can’t hit on a good one if you don’t play but the odds are bad.  7.5% of all picks combined past the second round haven’t made it (for us).  And only 4% have been decent-good.

 

I really wish some CDCer would be willing to spend the time to illustrate this in a way to make people understand that picks can be overrated.  

 

This is why teams load up on picks. Its still premature to nail down a success rate of JBs drafting. If we look at who we still have in the system and who is still a potential asset, our success rate is profound. Let’s include the late 1st round because everyone is downplaying the significance of a late 1st. Due to TJ Miller narrative. 

2014

McCann - full time NHL -core 

Demko - Has  Vez potential - Core

Tree - NHL Bottom pair

Forsling - NHL Bottom pair

 

2015

Boeser - Core

Brisebois - NHL Bottom Pair

Gaudette - NHL 3rd Line C - core

 

2016

Lockwood - NHL 4th line

* note, this is the year he really threw away a lot of picks

 

2017

Lind - NHL top 9 Forward

Gadjovich - NHL 4th line 

DiPietro - NHL Solid 1B or tandem Goalie

Rathbone - NHL Depth 

Palmu - NHL 4th line/ Depth

 

2018

Woo - NHL top 4 - potentially core 

Madden - NHL 3rd Line C potentially core

 

Do not underestimate this teams amateur scouting bro. I will put this up against any other teams late round success in the same time period. Imagine if we kept those 2nds. Imagine if he loaded up on picks. Imagine if he kept those picks in 2016. Our 2-5th round draft picks are worth (to our team) more than anything else we have It’s how we are built. 

 

 

Edited by Bubble Man

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While I disagree on JB,s earlier picks I think we are on track picking up more draft picks should be his focus for the next two years we need growth in prospects to allow the transition of the core . Trades to get an first pick back at the dead line and to add more seconds,. Its going to take 3 years to transition this team to be playoff regulars. The faces of this team will change and todays Vets will be gone. Defense should be Jim's focus     

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10 minutes ago, Bubble Man said:

This is why teams load up on picks. Its still premature to nail down a success rate of JBs drafting. If we look at who we still have in the system and who is still a potential asset, our success rate is profound. Let’s include the late 1st round because everyone is downplaying the significance of a late 1st. Due to TJ Miller narrative. 

2014

McCann - full time NHL -core 

Demko - Has  Vez potential - Core

Tree - NHL Bottom pair

Forsling - NHL Bottom pair

 

2015

Boeser - Core

Brisebois - NHL Bottom Pair

Gaudette - NHL 3rd Line C - core

 

2016

Lockwood - NHL 4th line

* note, this is the year he really threw away a lot of picks

 

2017

Lind - NHL top 9 Forward

Gadjovich - NHL 4th line 

DiPietro - NHL Solid 1B or tandem Goalie

Rathbone - NHL Depth 

Palmu - NHL 4th line/ Depth

 

2018

Woo - NHL top 4 - potentially core 

Madden - NHL 3rd Line C potentially core

 

Do not underestimate this teams amateur scouting bro. I will put this up against any other teams late round success in the same time period. Imagine if we kept those 2nds. Imagine if he loaded up on picks. Imagine if he kept those picks in 2016. Our 2-5th round draft picks are worth (to our team) more than anything else we have It’s how we are built. 

 

 

Define core.

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1 minute ago, Bubble Man said:

This is why teams load up on picks. Its still premature to nail down a success rate of JBs drafting. If we look at who we still have in the system and who is still a potential asset, our success rate is profound. Let’s include the late 1st round because everyone is downplaying the significance of a late 1st. Due to TJ Miller narrative. 

2014

McCann - full time NHL -core 

Demko - Has  Vez potential - Core

Tree - NHL Bottom pair

Forsling - NHL Bottom pair

 

2015

Boeser - Core

Brisebois - NHL Bottom Pair

Gaudette - NHL 3rd Line C - core

 

2016

Lockwood - NHL bottom Pair

* note, this is the year he really threw away a lot of picks

 

2017

Lind - NHL top 9 Forward

Gadjovich - NHL 4th line 

DiPietro - NHL Solid 1B or tandem Goalie

Rathbone - NHL Depth 

Palmu - NHL 4th line/ Depth

 

2018

Woo - NHL top 4 - potentially core 

Madden - NHL 3rd Line C potentially core

 

Do not underestimate this teams amateur scouting bro. I will put this up against any other teams late round success in the same time period. Imagine if we kept those 2nds. Imagine if he loaded up on picks. Imagine if he kept those picks in 2016. Our 2-5th round draft picks are worth (to our team) more than anything else we have It’s how we are built. 

 

 

I agree that it’s way too early to predict who might be an NHL player past the third round under Bennings last four drafts...his first two are basically locked in.   At this point two are Tree and AG.   I think your being a little optimistic on quite a few of these guys making it and definitely where they might end up.   Some of these guys are second rounders too, which weren’t included in the point I was trying to make.   

 

I definitely think he will buck the trend of the previous few GMs, in not hitting on many at all.   But I don’t expect we will see more then a handful of guys, and most of them will be third rounders.  Madden, Tree and AG are locks IMO, MD has a decent chance of making it, 200 games though?  Hard to say.  yes to Woo and Lind (second rounders).  

 

JG looks like a career AHLer at best so far (can’t push guys around so easy, his size is not longer a factor, although his skating is improving) ... Brisbois might get the third role but looks to be a first call-up depth option, doubt he will play 200 games but hope I’m wrong.

 

Statistically Benning is only a above average drafter, plus four based on ADP. TB is plus 22, by far the best drafter in the league based on average draft position the last five years.  EDM is DFL, -27 based on ADP the past five years.  Definitely agree it’s too early for the last three or even four drafts to really know what we’ve got.  

 

In the end a GM expects one NHLer per draft and hopes for two.  More then that is huge.

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3 minutes ago, IBatch said:

I agree that it’s way too early to predict who might be an NHL player past the third round under Bennings last four drafts...his first two are basically locked in.   At this point two are Tree and AG.   I think your being a little optimistic on quite a few of these guys making it and definitely where they might end up.   Some of these guys are second rounders too, which weren’t included in the point I was trying to make.   

 

I definitely think he will buck the trend of the previous few GMs, in not hitting on many at all.   But I don’t expect we will see more then a handful of guys, and most of them will be third rounders.  Madden, Tree and AG are locks IMO, MD has a decent chance of making it, 200 games though?  Hard to say.  yes to Woo and Lind (second rounders).  

 

JG looks like a career AHLer at best so far (can’t push guys around so easy, his size is not longer a factor, although his skating is improving) ... Brisbois might get the third role but looks to be a first call-up depth option, doubt he will play 200 games but hope I’m wrong.

 

Statistically Benning is only a above average drafter, plus four based on ADP. TB is plus 22, by far the best drafter in the league based on average draft position the last five years.  EDM is DFL, -27 based on ADP the past five years.  Definitely agree it’s too early for the last three or even four drafts to really know what we’ve got.  

 

In the end a GM expects one NHLer per draft and hopes for two.  More then that is huge.

You miss understood what I said. These are the potential ceilings of these players. These are the players he pulled out of the post top 15 who are still assets. Who are still worth 1 of the 50 contracts. I find it so odd how you can be a huge Benning supporter and downplay his biggest strength, while simultaneously downplaying his biggest weakness. 5 years is required to judge a draft. 2014 is in the books. The rest are still very much undetermined. 

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I think JB is in the College sign mod  meaning all our next D prospects are going to come from that route.

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13 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Define core.

A core piece is a player who exceeds the league average contract in cap/term. Anything under the league average is depth/replaceable complementary pieces. I’m high on Gaudette. McCann is  a top 6 forward in Pittsburgh who will probably sign an above league average contract. 

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2 minutes ago, vannuck59 said:

Gaudette will have to make a bigger statement this year and show  he can drive play and scoring

Hard to prove when you’re stuck behind foundational Sutter. He has exceeded all expectations at every level, hard to have reason he can’t do the same in the NHL given the opportunity. 

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8 minutes ago, Bubble Man said:

This is why teams load up on picks. Its still premature to nail down a success rate of JBs drafting. If we look at who we still have in the system and who is still a potential asset, our success rate is profound. Let’s include the late 1st round because everyone is downplaying the significance of a late 1st. Due to TJ Miller narrative. 

2014

McCann - full time NHL -core 

Demko - Has  Vez potential - Core

Tree - NHL Bottom pair

Forsling - NHL Bottom pair

 

2015

Boeser - Core

Brisebois - NHL Bottom Pair

Gaudette - NHL 3rd Line C - core

 

2016

Lockwood - NHL bottom Pair

* note, this is the year he really threw away a lot of picks

 

2017

Lind - NHL top 9 Forward

Gadjovich - NHL 4th line 

DiPietro - NHL Solid 1B or tandem Goalie

Rathbone - NHL Depth 

Palmu - NHL 4th line/ Depth

 

2018

Woo - NHL top 4 - potentially core 

Madden - NHL 3rd Line C potentially core

 

Do not underestimate this teams amateur scouting bro. I will put this up against any other teams late round success in the same time period. Imagine if we kept those 2nds. Imagine if he loaded up on picks. Imagine if he kept those picks in 2016. Our 2-5th round draft picks are worth (to our team) more than anything else we have It’s how we are built. 

 

 

Not sure how you can use "success rate" and "potential" in the same sentence and conclude "profound". Either they are a success or they have potential of success. For example, Shinkaruk would have been on your list of "profound success" and have "core" after his name back in 2014 as many had him as our future 1st line LW. It certainly didn't play out that way. Not sure how you could put "core" after McCann's name five years after being drafted. Do "core players" get traded twice before they're 23? I honestly don't know how you can declare anybody a "profound success" or "core" without them actually achieving it first. Horvat, Petie and Boeser are certainly profound successes and core as they have already achieved that status.

 

It's great to be optimistic, or excited, about our prospects but even calling Gaudette core at this point is nothing but speculation. He certainly hasn't established it. He has the potential but he also has the potential to be an average 3rd liner at this point. 

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2 minutes ago, Bubble Man said:

Hard to prove when you’re stuck behind foundational Sutter. He has exceeded all expectations at every level, hard to have reason he can’t do the same in the NHL given the opportunity. 

Sutter only played 26 games last season. :lol:

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14 minutes ago, Baggins said:

Not sure how you can use "success rate" and "potential" in the same sentence and conclude "profound". Either they are a success or they have potential of success. For example, Shinkaruk would have been on your list of "profound success" and have "core" after his name back in 2014 as many had him as our future 1st line LW. It certainly didn't play out that way. Not sure how you could put "core" after McCann's name five years after being drafted. Do "core players" get traded twice before they're 23? I honestly don't know how you can declare anybody a "profound success" or "core" without them actually achieving it first. Horvat, Petie and Boeser are certainly profound successes and core as they have already achieved that status.

 

It's great to be optimistic, or excited, about our prospects but even calling Gaudette core at this point is nothing but speculation. He certainly hasn't established it. He has the potential but he also has the potential to be an average 3rd liner at this point. 

If you need to dissect the way I’m trying to articulate a point to support your narrative then great. If these players didn’t have the potential they wouldn’t bother spending the time and money developing them. 2014 alone provided more potential then the entire Gillis era post top 15. I’m not here to argue McCann, he is vital to Pittsburgh right now. Who are we to judge his path to a top 6 player. If 25% of those players make their ceiling it’s still a better success rate then his ability to obtain core pieces through trade. 

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7 minutes ago, Bubble Man said:

If you need to dissect the way I’m trying to articulate a point to support your narrative then great. If these players didn’t have the potential they wouldn’t bother spending the time and money developing them. 2014 alone provided more potential then the entire Gillis era post top 15. I’m not here to argue McCann, he is vital to Pittsburgh right now. Who are we to judge his path to a top 6 player. If 25% of those players make their ceiling it’s still a better success rate then his ability to obtain core pieces through trade. 

If they didn't have potential they wouldn't have been selected in the first place. Potential doesn't equal success let alone profound success. Nor does it mean core player, a label that tends to get tossed around pretty freely and prematurely around here. Like I said, it's great to be optimistic, but you can'ty draw conclussions like ":profound success rate" based on optimism.

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1 minute ago, Baggins said:

If they didn't have potential they wouldn't have been selected in the first place. Potential doesn't equal success let alone profound success. Nor does it mean core player, a label that tends to get tossed around pretty freely and prematurely around here. Like I said, it's great to be optimistic, but you can'ty draw conclussions like ":profound success rate" based on optimism.

It takes 5 years to judge a draft. I clearly stated this. IMO, Demko, Tree, McCann, Forsling after the top 15 is profound success. It’s holy f success. 

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