[Rumor] Boeser Camp Eyeing 4 Year Deal Worth $28M

[Baggins]

On 7/18/2019 at 8:25 PM, WHL rocks said:

JB has to negotiate hard for a 7 or 8 yr deal.  Drive a hard bargain. 

 

Precedent has to be set with BB. Or well be looking like TML in a couple of years. All the kids will want big money short term deals so they can hit UFA asap.  

 

7 yrs. 6.5 mill per year is a fair deal for both sides. 

But why would Boeser sign that? If he believes he's going to become a 80-90 point player, and there's no reason for him not to believe that playing with Petey, he'd be in line for a much bigger payday in just a few years. Would you sign long term knowing that? 

[stawns]

On 7/19/2019 at 12:48 PM, wai_lai416 said:

4 year deal is not short. You can apply the same principle to jake if u want but if you take out all his empty net goals hes projected to exactly the same as he finished at. If hes signing at below market at 5.5 itll be for 2 years.. which would put the Canucks in a terrible spot. If boeser continues to improve and be in the 8+mil range then I dunno how they will get petterson and Hughes and boeser all under contract. Pettersson will have arbitration rights so he ain't signing a low bridge deal. If Hughes is the real deal I dont see how u can convince him to sign for less than myer.

So projections only apply to players you like?

[Mike Vanderhoek]

1 hour ago, Baggins said:

But why would Boeser sign that? If he believes he's going to become a 80-90 point player, and there's no reason for him not to believe that playing with Petey, he'd be in line for a much bigger payday in just a few years. Would you sign long term knowing that? 

I think he should bring it down a notch and see if he can get to 30 goals first off.

[oldnews]

4 hours ago, Baggins said:

But why would Boeser sign that? If he believes he's going to become a 80-90 point player, and there's no reason for him not to believe that playing with Petey, he'd be in line for a much bigger payday in just a few years. Would you sign long term knowing that? 

 

2 hours ago, Mike Vanderhoek said:

I think he should bring it down a notch and see if he can get to 30 goals first off.

I agree with both of you.

 

Boeser taking 6.5 long term = probably not realistic - he'll be wanting to 'project' future production - which is not really the basis on which to sign deals with 21 year old players.

 

Teams need to stop doing away with bridge contracts.

Players need to stop expecting marquis deals after 2 NHL seasons.

 

Boeser at Horvat money on a bridge - and then get back to us when you hit 80 pts over that term - and both sides can  readjust for market value.

Buy more of Boeser's UFA years in the process.   Signing deals like this should be less based on 'projections' and more on actual performance to date - which imo spells bridge - has not yet earned a 50+ million deal imo, and conversely, can't expect the player to potentially undersell themself long term based on current production to date.

[Baggins]

3 hours ago, Mike Vanderhoek said:

I think he should bring it down a notch and see if he can get to 30 goals first off.

This is precisely why he wouldn't be interested in a long term deal at this point.

[wai_lai416]

5 hours ago, stawns said:

So projections only apply to players you like?

what are you even talking about? virtanen stats the last 2 years is almost identical minus empty net goals... i project him more or less the same as he's shown nothing to prove he's all of a sudden going to be a 20 goal power forward who's willing to go to dirty areas and hit. boeser even if you don't project him in a few years to be better than he is now.. based on salary cap increase and how players are signed to % of the salary cap usually.. his price tag will automatically be inflated if you sign him now vs if you sign him 2 years down the road unless the salary cap shrinks

[WHL rocks]

On 7/22/2019 at 7:53 AM, Baggins said:

But why would Boeser sign that? If he believes he's going to become a 80-90 point player, and there's no reason for him not to believe that playing with Petey, he'd be in line for a much bigger payday in just a few years. Would you sign long term knowing that? 

Boeser was close to a career ending injury. His back still wasn't right most of last season. 

 

He likely appreciates the risk of injury in this game. Long term security is very important instead of short term less money and big pay out in 3 or 4 yrs. 

 

If they can find a balance on money and term and get him to 7 yrs it'll be great. Team also takes a chance because Boeser injury might not have fully healed still. He might stay a 50 or 60 point guy with minimal board work and back check like last season.

 

Risk and reward for both parties equals win win deal. 

[Baggins]

35 minutes ago, WHL rocks said:

Boeser was close to a career ending injury. His back still wasn't right most of last season. 

 

He likely appreciates the risk of injury in this game. Long term security is very important instead of short term less money and big pay out in 3 or 4 yrs. 

 

If they can find a balance on money and term and get him to 7 yrs it'll be great. Team also takes a chance because Boeser injury might not have fully healed still. He might stay a 50 or 60 point guy with minimal board work and back check like last season.

 

Risk and reward for both parties equals win win deal. 

There's no way he signs a long term deal at his current worth. If it's long term it will be well above current worth. 

[WHL rocks]

1 minute ago, Baggins said:

There's no way he signs a long term deal at his current worth. If it's long term it will be well above current worth. 

Well ofcourse. 

 

Current worth plus more for future worth. 

 

And added risk to team that he fully recovers from a very serious back injury. 

 

That's what they negotiate over. That's why taking so long. They are attempting to agree on current worth and future worth.

 

[Baggins]

21 minutes ago, WHL rocks said:

Well ofcourse. 

 

Current worth plus more for future worth. 

 

And added risk to team that he fully recovers from a very serious back injury. 

 

That's what they negotiate over. That's why taking so long. They are attempting to agree on current worth and future worth.

 

He's certainly not signing long term at 6.5m. It's not really much more than current worth.

[WHL rocks]

1 minute ago, Baggins said:

He's certainly not signing long term at 6.5m. It's not really much more than current worth.

His last year's performance doesnt put him at 6.5 mill on a short term deal. 

 

Timo Meier who is a beast of a player signed for 6 mill cap hit for 4 years. It's back loaded so his QO will be 10 mill. But Boeser is not worth more than Meir for next 4 years based on their past performance. 

 

So for long term security he signs 6.5 mill 7 yrs. 

 

That averages 6 mill first 4 seasons 7.2 mill last 3 season. 

[Baggins]

2 minutes ago, WHL rocks said:

His last year's performance doesnt put him at 6.5 mill on a short term deal. 

 

Timo Meier who is a beast of a player signed for 6 mill cap hit for 4 years. It's back loaded so his QO will be 10 mill. But Boeser is not worth more than Meir for next 4 years based on their past performance. 

 

So for long term security he signs 6.5 mill 7 yrs. 

 

That averages 6 mill first 4 seasons 7.2 mill last 3 season. 

Meir signed a 4 year deal, not 7, for a reason. He's certain he'll be worth much more down the road. Odds are his next contract will indeed be much higher. Boeser is in the same boat. He's not going to sign long term for an extra handful of coins. Not when he could be looking at far higher in just four years.

[Provost]

8 minutes ago, Baggins said:

Meir signed a 4 year deal, not 7, for a reason. He's certain he'll be worth much more down the road. Odds are his next contract will indeed be much higher. Boeser is in the same boat. He's not going to sign long term for an extra handful of coins. Not when he could be looking at far higher in just four years.

Except it isn’t a handful of coins.  On a short 2-3 year deal, Boeser is in the $4.5-5 million dollar range... maybe $5.5 on a 4 year deal.  Shorter deals are based on current performance, longer term deals project improvement and cap increases, as well as buying years of expensive free agency.

 

The math gets pretty close to even if he earns an extra $2 million per year in his first few years on a long term deal, or gets paid and extra couple million per year on his next contract after a short term deal expires.

[Baggins]

Just now, Provost said:

Except it isn’t a handful of coins.  On a short 2-3 year deal, Boeser is in the $4.5-5 million dollar range... maybe $5.5 on a 4 year deal.  Shorter deals are based on current performance, longer term deals project improvement and cap increases, as well as buying years of expensive free agency.

 

The math gets pretty close to even if he earns an extra $2 million per year in his first few years on a long term deal, or gets paid and extra couple million per year on his next contract after a short term deal expires.

One million may cover the salary inflation from cap increase over 3 or 4 years. Figuring an 80 point player is in the 9m+ currently then add in the salary inflation four years from now. Which would be the better deal? 

 

I don't see him signing a long term deal at barely above what he's currently worth. His production will rise just with Petey gaining experience without any improvement to his own game or on the LW. If both of their games progress as expected they'll be among the elite of the league. He'd be crazy to sign long term at 6.5m when he could be making 10m+ in 4 years on a long term with a lucrative front loaded structure.

[Provost]

3 minutes ago, Baggins said:

One million may cover the salary inflation from cap increase over 3 or 4 years. Figuring an 80 point player is in the 9m+ currently then add in the salary inflation four years from now. Which would be the better deal? 

 

I don't see him signing a long term deal at barely above what he's currently worth. His production will rise just with Petey gaining experience without any improvement to his own game or on the LW. If both of their games progress as expected they'll be among the elite of the league. He'd be crazy to sign long term at 6.5m when he could be making 10m+ in 4 years on a long term with a lucrative front loaded structure.

Obviously he wants to get paid as much as possible and there is a real risk to the team that salary inflation hits hard right at the 3-4 year mark from now when the new US TV deal and the Seattle expansion numbers hit the revenue calculation.  Mitigating that is the amount the players hate escrow and how the cap is artificially high right now by 10-15% due to using the escalator clause.  They might agree to keep the cap fairly flat until the revenue catches up... which would eat the entire amount of inflation for a few years.... cap inflation is by no means guaranteed right now, and Boeser could find getting the scraps AFTER Petey and Hughes extend  less than lucrative.

 

Right now assume a short term deal of $4.5 at 4 years = $18 million.  Then the first 4 years of a new contract @ $9 million per.... that equals $64 million over the next 8 years.

 

An 8 year long term deal at $6.5-7.0 = $52-56 million.

 

The difference isn’t as huge as you are making it out.  Factor in the fact a long term contract is guaranteed money even if he gets hurt or performs poorly, as well as that a much bigger chunk can be paid up front and invested with a decent rate of return.... the delta between the two choices is a lot thinner than at first blush.

[18W-40C-6W]

3 hours ago, WHL rocks said:

Boeser was close to a career ending injury. His back still wasn't right most of last season. 

 

He likely appreciates the risk of injury in this game. Long term security is very important instead of short term less money and big pay out in 3 or 4 yrs. 

 

If they can find a balance on money and term and get him to 7 yrs it'll be great. Team also takes a chance because Boeser injury might not have fully healed still. He might stay a 50 or 60 point guy with minimal board work and back check like last season.

 

Risk and reward for both parties equals win win deal. 

As the say in business. The best deals are where neither side feels like they “won”

[Baggins]

1 minute ago, Provost said:

Obviously he wants to get paid as much as possible and there is a real risk to the team that salary inflation hits hard right at the 3-4 year mark from now when the new US TV deal and the Seattle expansion numbers hit the revenue calculation.  Mitigating that is the amount the players hate escrow and how the cap is artificially high right now by 10-15% due to using the escalator clause.  They might agree to keep the cap fairly flat until the revenue catches up... which would eat the entire amount of inflation for a few years.... cap inflation is by no means guaranteed right now, and Boeser could find getting the scraps AFTER Petey and Hughes extend  less than lucrative.

 

Right now assume a short term deal of $4.5 at 4 years = $18 million.  Then the first 4 years of a new contract @ $9 million per.... that equals $64 million over the next 8 years.

 

An 8 year long term deal at $6.5-7.0 = $52-56 million.

 

The difference isn’t as huge as you are making it out.  Factor in the fact a long term contract is guaranteed money even if he gets hurt or performs poorly, as well as that a much bigger chunk can be paid up front and invested with a decent rate of return.... the delta between the two choices is a lot thinner than at first blush.

I honestly don't think you get him at 4.5 for four years. 

 

You don't think 8m is a big difference? And that's without a lucrative structure to that next contract.

[WeneedLumme]

6 hours ago, Baggins said:

I honestly don't think you get him at 4.5 for four years. 

 

You don't think 8m is a big difference? And that's without a lucrative structure to that next contract.

Yeah, $4.5M for the productivity he has already demonstrated is just silly. Are there any players who come close to his goal production who have recently signed for those kind of numbers? I suspect that if there were, someone would have pointed them out already.

[Maketherightmove]

13 hours ago, Provost said:

Obviously he wants to get paid as much as possible and there is a real risk to the team that salary inflation hits hard right at the 3-4 year mark from now when the new US TV deal and the Seattle expansion numbers hit the revenue calculation.  Mitigating that is the amount the players hate escrow and how the cap is artificially high right now by 10-15% due to using the escalator clause.  They might agree to keep the cap fairly flat until the revenue catches up... which would eat the entire amount of inflation for a few years.... cap inflation is by no means guaranteed right now, and Boeser could find getting the scraps AFTER Petey and Hughes extend  less than lucrative.

 

Right now assume a short term deal of $4.5 at 4 years = $18 million.  Then the first 4 years of a new contract @ $9 million per.... that equals $64 million over the next 8 years.

 

An 8 year long term deal at $6.5-7.0 = $52-56 million.

 

The difference isn’t as huge as you are making it out.  Factor in the fact a long term contract is guaranteed money even if he gets hurt or performs poorly, as well as that a much bigger chunk can be paid up front and invested with a decent rate of return.... the delta between the two choices is a lot thinner than at first blush.

The shorter the term on the deal, the more expensive it's going to be. $4.5M for 4 years is a ridiculous thought. If the Canucks came to the table with that his agent is hanging up the phone. 

[Provost]

4 minutes ago, Maketherightmove said:

The shorter the term on the deal, the more expensive it's going to be. $4.5M for 4 years is a ridiculous thought. If the Canucks came to the table with that his agent is hanging up the phone. 

No, that is the opposite of the way it works.  Longer equals higher AAV for young players.  You are buying UFA years.  That is literally the exact issue with Marner.  They are willing to pay him $10 million per year but want a full 8 years... he wants that at least and a shorter deal.