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[proposal] Canucks should consider trading Tanev and signing Gardiner


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10 minutes ago, Hindustan Smyl said:

3) Gardiner has the type of game that will age relatively well.  He shouldn’t be too much worse at the age of 34 than he is now (barring injuries, which is admittedly a concern for him).  A 6 year deal to Gardiner is more than acceptable.

 

So a guy who is too stupid to play defense will age well?  He's already so bad he was on the third pairing on a team that had one legit NHLer in Muzzin.  Gardiner makes Pouliot, Larsen, and Weber look rock solid in their own end by comparison.  We don't need a defenseman who can't play defense for any amount of time, let alone six years.  Gardiner would make Loui Eriksson look like a bargain in comparison.  He's that bad.

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3 hours ago, Hindustan Smyl said:

[proposal] Canucks should consider trading Tanev and signing Gardiner

 

While I've been happy with the moves that the Canucks have made this off-season, our defense in the long term still concerns me.    

 

Here is what our defense looks like right now:

 

Edler-Myers

Hughes-Tanev

Benn-Stecher

 

Fantenberg.

 

 

Short term concerns:

 

While that defense isn't too bad, I still have concerns for that left side.  If Edler goes down with injury (and perhaps I shouldn't be saying, "if,"........I should be saying, "when,"), you'll either have.....

 

1) A very young Quinn Hughes playing on the top pairing  OR

2) An honest yet talent-challenged 3rd pairing caliber dman in Jamie Benn moving up to fulfill that role.

 

In both cases, I think there are significant risks involved in having either of those men playing on the top pairing for any length of time.......and if the Canucks have playoff aspirations, and Edler injury could once again prove to be fatal.

 

 

Long term concerns:

 

One major concern I have for our defense long term, is the lack of Top 4 caliber defensemen in our system.       Two years from now, the Canucks will be faced with the following dilemna:

 

1) Do we re-sign 35 year old Alexander Edler?  If so, for how much?    As I addressed in another thread, will we have enough cap space to re-up Edler, given that Hughes and Pettersson will need to be re-upped at this same time?

2) IF Hughes is ready to assume that top pairing position on the team, who takes that 2nd pairing LD?    Is Olli Juolevi projecting to be a 2nd pairing defenseman as of this writing?    Can Tryamkin fulfill that role?     

 

2019-2020:

 

Edler-Myers

Hughes-Tanev

Benn-Stecher

 

2020-2021

 

Edler-Myers

Hughes-[Tryamkin? (as a Tanev replacement)]

Benn-Stecher

 

2021-2022

Hughes-Myers

[Tryamkin-Juolevi]-[Stecher-Woo]

[Tryamkin-Juolevi]--[Stecher-Woo]

 

My only problem with the above, is that we might be assuming too much..........and that we might be making unrealistic projections.

 

While it's nice to make assumptions that guys like Juolevi, Tryamkin, and Woo will easily be able to fill those Top 4 positional voids, I'm just not sure if they'll be able to be GREAT in those roles.   Are any of those guys projecting to be GREAT 2nd pairing dmen at the NHL level?   I'm not so sure.      

 

On top of all that, I'm also assuming that Hughes will automatically become a top pairing calibre dman.       Although it seems likely, it's by no means a guarantee.    

 

Gardiner would not only solidify the left side D both short term and long term, but would also allow the Canucks to make more realistic long term and conservative projections on their D: 

 

This is where I think a guy like Gardiner will come in handy.    The presence of Gardiner will allow the Canucks to:

 

1) Have more top pairing LD options if/when Edler gets injured.   Now, instead of relying on a very young Quinn Hughes, or the 3rd pairing calibre Jamie Benn, the Canucks could easily put Gardiner as an adequate top pairing replacement, while still allowing Hughes to develop his game on a 2nd pairing.

 

Edler-Stecher

Gardiner-Myers

Hughes-Benn

 

[If Edler gets injured]

 

Gardiner-Myers

Hughes-Benn

Fantenberg-Stecher

 

2) Let Edler walk after two years without having to worry if the Canucks will be deep enough:     If Hughes is good enough to assume Top pairing D at this point, great!  Stick him on the top pairing.  If he's not ready.......great!   Gardiner goes there.    For the purposes of conservatism, you can then make preliminary projections to have guys like Juolevi, Tryamkin, and Woo taking over those 3rd pairing positions instead of making "lofty" 2nd pairing forecasts:

 

2021-2022:

 

[Hughes-Gardiner]-Myers

[Hughes-Gardiner]-[Tryamkin-Stecher-Woo]

[Tryamkin-Juolevi]-[Tryamkin-Stecher-Woo]

 

3) Will the presence of Gardiner affect the development of Hughes?       

 

I think this is the biggest reservations that many people have (including Benning), with regards to signing Gardiner.     I'm of the opinion that it wouldn't for the following reasons:

 

A)    Even if Hughes plays on the 3rd pairing 5  on 5, you could still give Hughes boatloads of PP time.        

B-)  As mentioned earlier, injuries to the D are inevitable.  Hughes would likely start on the 3rd pairing, but would likely get significant minutes in a top 4 role due to inevitable injuries.   Significant minutes on the Top 4 would be great for Hughes' development.    You know what likely wouldn't be great for his development right now?   Getting significant minutes in a top 2 role (which is basically what would happen right now if injuries occurred to the D).    

C)    If Hughes proves to be a Top 4 calibre dman right from the get go, move one of Edler or Gardiner to the right side.   Plain and simple.    Gardiner has had extensive experience playing on the right side in Toronto, while Edler played on the right side with Erhoff back in 2011.   

 

[Gardiner-Edler]-[Edler-Gardiner]

Hughes-Myers

Benn-Stecher

 

Fantenberg

 

 

Long term cap ramifications:   

 

I don't want to speculate about the long term cap ramifications of simultaneously trading Tanev (for a pick) while signing Gardiner (my guess is that Gardiner would be had for 6 million), and so the extra cap hit we'd take on would be (6 - 4.45 = 1.55 million), but I think it would definitely be worth exploring on Benning's end.    Again - I have no idea if the Canucks would be able to afford this move in the long term.    I speculated enough in my other thread and so I want re-hash that over here.

 

Conclusion:

 

Bringing in Gardiner would solidify the Canucks' left side D both short term and long term.    We wouldn't be forced to overburden Quinn Hughes, and we could also make more realistic and conservative projections with regards to guys like Tryamkin, Juolevi, and Woo.   Canucks D would be absolutely set both short term and long term on that left side.

Gardiner has a bad back, and he’s not nearly a Paul Reindhart. 

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Gardiner has been a UFA for a long while and seemingly nobody is running up to his door to sign him. If he can be had for 5mil I'd consider it. Would be easier to sign Gardiner rather than trade for Ghost, like I'd want. Gardiner is pretty poor defensively though. So personally, I think Edler Myers as a 1st pair would be better. Gardiner can have Stecher babysit him defensively. 3rd pair can be Benn Hughes. 

 

This depends on Gardiner's asking price and what we could get for Tanev. If we get a 3rd rounder and some no name prospect I'd rather just keep Tanev. Tanev can babysit Hughes and maybe the easier deployment of playing with Hughes will help him stay healthy this season. Benn and Stecher can be a Bieksa/Hamhuis lite shut down 3rd pair.

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  Gardiner might take a 5 x 5 deal at this point you never know.   TO suffered greatly without him in the lineup down the stretch he’s actually pretty good.   Finding .5-1.5 million couldn’t be that hard.   Not sure it’s the best choice or the best direction but it would solidify the L side and in a way replace quite a bit of what Edler does.  He is a very mobile, and would help give us two PP options.   OJ won’t beat him, but I don’t expect him to make it full time for at least one more year anyways.   I see OJ getting eased slowly into the lineup for both developmental  and physical reasons.  Gardiner absolutely would be an upgrade, not sure he’s the right guy or the cap situation is a good fit though. 

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The Canucks have signed a lot of UFAs over the last few years. 

I think of what they have on the roster currently one of their most valuable commodities is their expiring contracts over the next two years.

They need a lot of flexibility in 2 years when both EP and Quinn are up.

EP is definitely going to be expensive and hopefully so will Quinn.

I would not bring him in unless it was a two year contract which seems unlikely.  We would also need to clear at least a couple more million off the cap before it could work. 

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15 hours ago, N7Nucks said:

Gardiner has been a UFA for a long while and seemingly nobody is running up to his door to sign him. If he can be had for 5mil I'd consider it. Would be easier to sign Gardiner rather than trade for Ghost, like I'd want. Gardiner is pretty poor defensively  though. So personally, I think Edler Myers as a 1st pair would be better. Gardiner can have Stecher babysit him defensively. 3rd pair can be Benn Hughes. 

 

This depends on Gardiner's asking price and what we could get for Tanev. If we get a 3rd rounder and some no name prospect I'd rather just keep Tanev. Tanev can babysit Hughes and maybe the easier deployment of playing with Hughes will help him stay healthy this season. Benn and Stecher can be a Bieksa/Hamhuis lite shut down 3rd pair.

JG had a couple years where he was a minus magnet playing against top competitors when TO blew things up.   Nothing different then the many years of Edler getting -39 to - 20, how easily we forget.   He’s a good second pairing defenseman with wheels, some size and an offensive skill-set especially passing plays.   Some would argue he’s an upgrade on Elder right now, THN would for example have him the second best defender available this UFA season, one spot ahead of Myers (8,9) best ones available, Edler was 17.  

 

He’s been TO’s version of Edler for years now, a whipping boy and a goat one playoff series to boot, but the numbers don’t lie, he pushes the play and with better players does just fine 5 x 5.  His biggest downfall so far is that when the pressure amps up in the playoffs he hasn’t had the same succes as the regular season.  O’Reilly did the heavy lifting, but he was relied on just as much, and TO went through a dreadful patch without him last spring.  Could barely keep their heads above water.   Which makes you wonder what’s going to happen to them next year without him, much the same as us when Edler is out.

 

   The reality is like he’s better suited for second line duty  (unlike Edler hasn’t had that luxury here we could provide that for him and he’d still have a decent amount of talent to feed passes to, or get the puck too when he skates it out.  The ice tilts the other way when he’s on it, but the plays he gets burned on tend to be noticeable, the same way they are when EK flubs it.  Or Edler for that matter.   As a semi-long term solution for an aging Edler we could do much worse, and at least until recently he’s been healthy.

Edited by IBatch
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Gardiner has been on the market 3 weeks...I would be shocked if he got term and 5m or more as a cap hit. He likely is going to have to settle for a short term deal. We don't have the cap space to try and sign him until we sign Boeser (which annoys me that rfa's take so long to sign...they have 0 leverage)

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1 hour ago, Canuckster86 said:

Gardiner has been on the market 3 weeks...I would be shocked if he got term and 5m or more as a cap hit. He likely is going to have to settle for a short term deal. We don't have the cap space to try and sign him until we sign Boeser (which annoys me that rfa's take so long to sign...they have 0 leverage)

Possibly but it also depends on the ask. Maybe his camp wants 7 million (Gasp!) and so far no takers.  Doesn’t help that he’s a LHD, there is 50% more of those in the league then righties.   One fifty point season feeding that offense two seasons ago doesn’t mean he’s going to get much more then 30 on an average team...I’d say he’s done enough it deserve a modest raise, but the markets he market.  Kind of surprised given the lack of D in general this year.   Dzingel signed for a song, maybe he will too now. 

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3 hours ago, IBatch said:

JG had a couple years where he was a minus magnet playing against top competitors when TO blew things up.   Nothing different then the many years of Edler getting -39 to - 20, how easily we forget.   He’s a good second pairing defenseman with wheels, some size and an offensive skill-set especially passing plays.   Some would argue he’s an upgrade on Elder right now, THN would for example have him the second best defender available this UFA season, one spot ahead of Myers (8,9) best ones available, Edler was 17.  

 

He’s been TO’s version of Edler for years now, a whipping boy and a goat one playoff series to boot, but the numbers don’t lie, he pushes the play and with better players does just fine 5 x 5.  His biggest downfall so far is that when the pressure amps up in the playoffs he hasn’t had the same succes as the regular season.  O’Reilly did the heavy lifting, but he was relied on just as much, and TO went through a dreadful patch without him last spring.  Could barely keep their heads above water.   Which makes you wonder what’s going to happen to them next year without him, much the same as us when Edler is out.

 

   The reality is he’s better suited for second line duty but hasn’t had that luxury, here we could provide that for him and he’d still have a decent amount of talent to feed passes to, or get the puck too when he skates it out.  The ice tilts the other way when he’s on it, but the plays he gets burned on tend to be noticeable, the same way they are when EK flubs it.  Or Edler for that matter.   As a semi-long term solution for an aging Edler we could do much worse, and at least until recently he’s been healthy.

No, he’s definitely poor defensively, not saying he’s straight trash but he’s pretty meh at best. And his deployment I’m pretty sure was behind Rielly on the 2nd pair. Soooo, yeah.

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3 hours ago, flickyoursedin said:

Gardiner would cost at least 2 mill more in cap space than Tanev. If they could somehow also shed Eriksson in a separate trade of course than something like this Tanev out and Gardiner in could work.

-switch Tanev and Gardiner

-keep Eriksson for one more year (will be almost impossible to move him this year with. Zero retention and without adding a sweetener).

-use Baertschi and Schaller to clear cap space instead (zero retention).  That’s about 5.3 million right there.

 

5.3 million - 2 million (your estimated difference between Gardiner and Tanev) = 3.3 million in overall extra cap space = more than enough to re-up Boeser.

 

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Gardiner has his warts, but is a 2nd pairing defenseman.  

 

Ultimately, that’s the biggest factor for me.  Gardiner might have his warts defensively (although I do think this has been blown out of proportion by a number of people), the guy is still a bonafide 2nd pairing dman at the end of the day that will likely remain at his level for another 5-6 years.

 

-Tanev is a 2nd pairing dman, but his body is breaking down.

-Juolevi is a question mark and may not reach 2nd pairing caliber status.

-We don’t know what we have in Woo yet.

-Tryamkin, like Hutton, wouldn’t look out of place on a 2nd pairing, but can he become a GOOD 2nd pairing dman?   It remains to be seen.

 

Again, for me it’s more of an Insurance thing.  

 

IF the Canucks’ current plan is to.....

 

1) Move on from Tanev this summer and replace him with Tryamkin

2) Walk away completely from Edler, or assume that Edler would be willing to re-Sign here for less money in a 2nd/3rd pairing role,

 

The Canucks might be expecting too many dominos to fall into place (ie Hughes being a number one, Juolevi and Tryamkin becoming good number two’s, Edler will to re-Sign for less money as a 2nd pairing guy, etc).

 

Meh.  Not my problem to worry about I guess, lol.    

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8 minutes ago, Hindustan Smyl said:

Gardiner has his warts, but is a 2nd pairing defenseman.  

 

Ultimately, that’s the biggest factor for me.  Gardiner might have his warts defensively (although I do think this has been blown out of proportion by a number of people), the guy is still a bonafide 2nd pairing dman at the end of the day that will likely remain at his level for another 5-6 years.

 

-Tanev is a 2nd pairing dman, but his body is breaking down.

-Juolevi is a question mark and may not reach 2nd pairing caliber status.

-We don’t know what we have in Woo yet.

-Tryamkin, like Hutton, wouldn’t look out of place on a 2nd pairing, but can he become a GOOD 2nd pairing dman?   It remains to be seen.

 

Again, for me it’s more of an Insurance thing.  

 

IF the Canucks’ current plan is to.....

 

1) Move on from Tanev this summer and replace him with Tryamkin

2) Walk away completely from Edler, or assume that Edler would be willing to re-Sign here for less money in a 2nd/3rd pairing role,

 

The Canucks might be expecting too many dominos to fall into place (ie Hughes being a number one, Juolevi and Tryamkin becoming good number two’s, Edler will to re-Sign for less money as a 2nd pairing guy, etc).

 

Meh.  Not my problem to worry about I guess, lol.    

If he’s a second pairing Dman then he should be worth about $4.5m per year.

 

I would sign him for 4 years at $4.5m.

 

But as many have said, if he was willing to take that he would already be signed.

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31 minutes ago, BigTramFan said:

If he’s a second pairing Dman then he should be worth about $4.5m per year.

 

I would sign him for 4 years at $4.5m.

 

But as many have said, if he was willing to take that he would already be signed.

I think an average or “passable” 2nd pairing dman will get about 4.5 million in this market, but a good 2nd pairing dman that wouldn’t look completely out of place on a 1st pairing (if there are injuries) will get about 5.5-6 in my opinion.   I’d personally go as high as 6 for Gardiner.   

 

I don’t want Hughes or Benn being forced to play on the top pairing if Edler gets hurt.

 

 

Edited by Hindustan Smyl
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Gardiner is a 40+ point dman with no PP time. Obviously Quinn and even Edler seem to be locks for those spots but it’s not crazy to think that if Gardiner got some PP time he could be a 50 point dman. If Benning could find new homes for Tanev, Schaller and Eriksson I’d offer Gardiner the same deal we gave Myers. I’d maybe go as high as 6.75 mill a year.

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2 hours ago, flickyoursedin said:

Gardiner is a 40+ point dman with no PP time. Obviously Quinn and even Edler seem to be locks for those spots but it’s not crazy to think that if Gardiner got some PP time he could be a 50 point dman. If Benning could find new homes for Tanev, Schaller and Eriksson I’d offer Gardiner the same deal we gave Myers. I’d maybe go as high as 6.75 mill a year.

The great thing about Gardiner is that he swings both ways.   He’s adept at playing both sides of the ice (left side and right side) regardless of who his partner is.  

 

And again, Gardiner’s presence makes it so much easier to make future projections:

 

1) Edler not to re-Sign after two years?  No biggie.  One of Hughes or Gertie assumes the top pairing position.

 

2). Hughes not ready to be a dominant top pairing guy in two years?  No biggie.  Gardiner can fill that hole.

 

3) Juolevi and/or Tryamkin haven’t panned out to be 2nd pairing dmen?   No biggie.   They can be 3rd pairing dmen.

 

Gardiner’s presence here would check a lot of boxes.

 

And again - If protecting and developing Hughes is a major priority for us, then which of the following is more important?

 

1) Hughes being a 2nd pairing guy that gets “thrown to the wolves” as a first pairing guy if someone like Edler gets injured for an extended time period?   Does being Blake Wheeler’s wife sound fun as he blows Hughes into the boards on the forecheck?

 

2) Hughes being a 3rd pairing guy that get significant time on the PP and significant time on the 2nd pairing when inevitable injuries to the defense occurs.

 

If you have a 19/20 year old potential budding superstar on your hands, what do YOU think would be the wiser option for his development?

Edited by Hindustan Smyl
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