iceman64 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 On 10/4/2019 at 2:02 AM, Nuxfanabroad said: After the first tilt in Edm, took a few mins to peruse the 2019-20 schedule(I'd only glanced a coupla' months back)..certainly looks a far sight better than last yr's! We posters all utter(or hear) the cliches, "2 pts is the same in Oct, or Spring", or the old, "pace yerself, NHL season's a marathon". Two maxims that almost stand in contrast..this yr I'd contend the team's better to approach this from the latter perspective. Marathon(42.195 k's) runners often aim for a "negative split", where the latter half(21 km's) is quicker than your first. Not many actually DO it..far easier to just talk about! Similarly on the pro ice, we often see the strong contenders closing out seasons on a sweet roll, as PO's arrive. To peak at the perfect time, seems a well-crafted, balanced art. Our sched is nicely spread out, the first few months. The daunting aspect is 17 roadies out of the first 27 tilts(to end-Nov). To get through these first two months at about .500 seems a reasonable target, & I'd wager it would bode well to set up a strong 2nd half. December's a gem, with 10 out of 13 games at home, & the guys should appreciate less travel over that holiday season. At New Year's it's an even 40 games in, 20/20 split road & home. So then, how many pts do you feel is necessary after game #40, to make PO's a realistic bid? (I feel we need at LEAST 45 pts at that given time) Yeah well I'm just watching how we do in November as we play the better teams in league, not even concerned with how we look at the 40 game mark since injuries etc play into as the grind continues, how we fare against the best teams this month will show how we're progressing as a team. That being said, we're still a fairly new team with our newest additions and simmering time is needed but at any rate time will tell JB how his work has turn out and where things need to be tweeked to be even better.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nuxfanabroad Posted November 14, 2019 Author Share Posted November 14, 2019 On 11/13/2019 at 3:35 AM, iceman64 said: Yeah well I'm just watching how we do in November as we play the better teams in league, not even concerned with how we look at the 40 game mark since injuries etc play into as the grind continues, how we fare against the best teams this month will show how we're progressing as a team. That being said, we're still a fairly new team with our newest additions and simmering time is needed but at any rate time will tell JB how his work has turn out and where things need to be tweeked to be even better.. None of this can really be disputed..to me, the question I highlighted(in bold) is a way to simply look ahead. Eg: at 40 games, say we only had 35 -37 pts. They're cooked. If it's 50, we're probably in like Flynn. It's likely somewhere within that range, of course. So over the relative-leisure of winter holidays, that number will also have bearing on JB's trade decisions; from Jan1st , until TDL in later Feb. With the ongoing cap pinch, we'll have to be decisive in Jan/Feb, as well as season-end. It's compelling that these next 6 wks(on top of interest/excitement in each, individual tilt) should play such a big part in making those calls. In Aug/Sept they decided to carry LOTS of extra, sizeable, grinding depth. That decision is looking pretty sharp, about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItTakesAnArmy Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 I think the team looks better. Although, I thought that the last two years at the beginning so I thought I would see how they were doing now compared to then. Last year on November 15th they were, 21 games played, 10 wins, 9 Losses and 2 OTL's for 22 points, 65 GF - 75 GA - W% = .476 This year they are 20 games played, 10 wins and 7 Losses and 3 OTL's for 23 points, 65 GF - 54 GA. - W% = .500 This is an improvement especially in GA. The numbers were so close I decided to compare against other season and due to the few games played, they are all pretty close, 2 yrs ago the GA was 57, three years ago it was 62, Goals for two years ago were 51G three years ago 45G Where is the team trending? It appears for around a .500 W% which is around 24th with 83 to 90 points. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nuxfanabroad Posted November 15, 2019 Author Share Posted November 15, 2019 3 hours ago, ItTakesAnArmy said: I think the team looks better. Although, I thought that the last two years at the beginning so I thought I would see how they were doing now compared to then. Last year on November 15th they were, 21 games played, 10 wins, 9 Losses and 2 OTL's for 22 points, 65 GF - 75 GA - W% = .476 This year they are 20 games played, 10 wins and 7 Losses and 3 OTL's for 23 points, 65 GF - 54 GA. - W% = .500 This is an improvement especially in GA. The numbers were so close I decided to compare against other season and due to the few games played, they are all pretty close, 2 yrs ago the GA was 57, three years ago it was 62, Goals for two years ago were 51G three years ago 45G Where is the team trending? It appears for around a .500 W% which is around 24th with 83 to 90 points. They seem a little light, fragile recently. The 2nd half ain't too kind to such teams. But then what if you add a healthy(& fresh) Motte, Roussel, Beagle, & maybe MacEwen, instead of LouiE, Schaller & perhaps Baer? It lays the foundation for the top 2 lines playing as they should. The depth in bodies could help create a strong 2nd half. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nucker 67 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 I think some Pacific teams are going to have to really screw up for the Canucks to make the playoffs. It will be great to get Roussel, Ferland and Motte etc back, but let's just hope we're not sending Petey, Brock, Bo or Hughes to the infirmary anytime soon. Those guys are having to play tough minutes against bigger, more experienced opponents. I just hope they can stay healthy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItTakesAnArmy Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 (edited) On 11/15/2019 at 9:23 PM, NUCKER67 said: I think some Pacific teams are going to have to really screw up for the Canucks to make the playoffs. It will be great to get Roussel, Ferland and Motte etc back, but let's just hope we're not sending Petey, Brock, Bo or Hughes to the infirmary anytime soon. Those guys are having to play tough minutes against bigger, more experienced opponents. I just hope they can stay healthy. Petey and Brock are showing some signs of the pressure already. Bo is a trooper but this is affecting him as well. Last few seasons all of them have tired, if they got the whole season in at all. Petey still looks light and Brock looks like he will blow a groin. Even Miller is starting to show cracks. Over 100 hits, hits, not love taps in one of Washington's playoff games, just one game. Whistles away and booming hits, guys like Reeves, Wilson and Watson are not under contract to play like ballerina's and Getesalf, Ovechkin, Wheeler and many other top players are not marshmallows either Do you think ANY of the current Canuck brass took notice? True they did sign a couple of larger guys that look like they could withstand a playoff grind but there is more needed on defence besides just Tryamkin. How will Hughes and Stecher hold up or Edler and Tanev when 220 lb guys start hitting to hurt. Myers is big but not really nasty, Groot is only one player, Ferland is one knock out away from retirement if not already there and the team does not have two forward lines yet. Just how much is 6 points worth at the end of the season if they are out of the playoffs anyway? That 6 points could represent a 8% better chance of a top player out of this deep draft. You can bet there will be many very easy games at the end of the season against teams' "seeing what is in the system", "keeping players out due to injury", "reduced icetime". I have read that many posters don't think players would tank, wrong, players with a desire to win a cup will sacrifice two or three months if they think management will be drafting multiple young player to give them another shot at the chalice, they may not like it but they are "professionals" and their contracts are directly influenced by where the team is in the standings. The next month will tell the tale. Edited November 20, 2019 by ItTakesAnArmy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nuxfanabroad Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 Looks more & more like about .500 to end Nov. This road trip is a timely test. Might find out early, it's wise to sell off some excess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman64 Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 (edited) On 10/4/2019 at 2:02 AM, Nuxfanabroad said: After the first tilt in Edm, took a few mins to peruse the 2019-20 schedule(I'd only glanced a coupla' months back)..certainly looks a far sight better than last yr's! We posters all utter(or hear) the cliches, "2 pts is the same in Oct, or Spring", or the old, "pace yerself, NHL season's a marathon". Two maxims that almost stand in contrast..this yr I'd contend the team's better to approach this from the latter perspective. Marathon(42.195 k's) runners often aim for a "negative split", where the latter half(21 km's) is quicker than your first. Not many actually DO it..far easier to just talk about! Similarly on the pro ice, we often see the strong contenders closing out seasons on a sweet roll, as PO's arrive. To peak at the perfect time, seems a well-crafted, balanced art. Our sched is nicely spread out, the first few months. The daunting aspect is 17 roadies out of the first 27 tilts(to end-Nov). To get through these first two months at about .500 seems a reasonable target, & I'd wager it would bode well to set up a strong 2nd half. December's a gem, with 10 out of 13 games at home, & the guys should appreciate less travel over that holiday season. At New Year's it's an even 40 games in, 20/20 split road & home. So then, how many pts do you feel is necessary after game #40, to make PO's a realistic bid? (I feel we need at LEAST 45 pts at that given time) More importantly.....JB has a knack wow.. Karel Plasek showed some Peteyness on his goal, second goal on the page (oct 13)... not bad!!!! https://www.nucksmisconduct.com/2019/11/21/20975941/karel-plasek-the-skinny-on-the-canucks-skinniest-prospect Edited November 22, 2019 by iceman64 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nuxfanabroad Posted December 24, 2019 Author Share Posted December 24, 2019 Gotta' love this team. The negative-split(back from original post) is shaping up as a possibility. In early Oct, was really hoping we could get to mid-season, with pts in the mid-40's. Gentleman Jim has set us up with the depth to bring the hammer down in this season's 2nd half. We've got a GREAT opportunity here, & the guys have truly earned it. Very proud of this squad. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nuxfanabroad Posted December 30, 2019 Author Share Posted December 30, 2019 Whoa.. 40 gp & 46 pts! Beauty. 2nd half with a neg split would put them within the 100 pt-range. Boys are rollin'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colt 45s Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Two points out of first in our division with two games in hand. I don't know if they can keep this pace, but I sure hope they can. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saved_by_Jesus Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 (edited) I always like the 40 game mark because you can usually separate the teams into tiers and usually those tiers remain stable for the rest of the season. The number of tiers changes from season to season (e.g. this year Detroit is in a tier of its own given how hopeless they are), but I assess the Canucks to be in the second tier in the "contender" category: ELITE BOS; PIT; WSH; COL; STL; CAR CONTENDERS NYI; TBL; TOR; VAN; PHI BUBBLE ARI; DAL; VGK; FLA; NSH; MTL; WPG SO YOU'RE TELLING ME THERE'S A CHANCE NYR; BUF; MIN BAD CBJ; CGY; EDM; CHI; ANA; OTT REALLY BAD LAK; SJS DISGUSTING NJD EXCEPTIONALLY DISGUSTING DET Edited December 30, 2019 by Saved_by_Jesus 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
48MPHSlapShot Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 (edited) 7 hours ago, Saved_by_Jesus said: I always like the 40 game mark because you can usually separate the teams into tiers and usually those tiers remain stable for the rest of the season. The number of tiers changes from season to season (e.g. this year Detroit is in a tier of its own given how hopeless they are), but I assess the Canucks to be in the second tier in the "contender" category: ELITE BOS; PIT; WSH; COL; STL; CAR CONTENDERS NYI; TBL; TOR; VAN; PHI BUBBLE ARI; DAL; VGK; FLA; NSH; MTL; WPG SO YOU'RE TELLING ME THERE'S A CHANCE NYR; BUF; MIN BAD CBJ; CGY; EDM; CHI; ANA; OTT REALLY BAD LAK; SJS DISGUSTING NJD EXCEPTIONALLY DISGUSTING DET Love the optimism, but I think we belong firmly in "bubble" territory, and as of this moment, so to EDM and CGY. Edited December 31, 2019 by 48MPHSlapShot 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saved_by_Jesus Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 3 hours ago, 48MPHSlapShot said: Love the optimism, but I think we belong firmly in "bubble" territory, and as of this moment, so to EDM and CGY. I hear you, and looking at the standings, I can see how you would say that. But then again, our goal differential is 24 goals better than both of those teams (we are +13, they are -11) - I actually think that says more about the sustainability than just the current records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
48MPHSlapShot Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 3 hours ago, Saved_by_Jesus said: I hear you, and looking at the standings, I can see how you would say that. But then again, our goal differential is 24 goals better than both of those teams (we are +13, they are -11) - I actually think that says more about the sustainability than just the current records. We do have two remember that a big part of our goal differential is tied to the fact that we played quite a few games against bad teams early in the season and were able to blow them out. Granted, you still need to be good to blow out a bad team, but our differential is definitely a bit inflated right now. As far as the teams are concerned, I’m willing to grant that EDM is absolutely paper thin and is likely going to be a sinking ship for the rest of the season, but on paper Calgary is still a solid team. Maybe not as good as their record indicated they were last year, but solid nonetheless, and at least on par with us imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grape Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 (edited) 3 hours ago, Saved_by_Jesus said: I hear you, and looking at the standings, I can see how you would say that. But then again, our goal differential is 24 goals better than both of those teams (we are +13, they are -11) - I actually think that says more about the sustainability than just the current records. Love the use of goal differential as a better judgement of ability; I believe that GD is generally a better judgement of ability than points. With that being said, our goal differential has involved quite a bit of puck luck this year so far (there are metrics for this too), and so while I believe it to be accurate to say we’ve been much better than those teams this year so far, we haven’t been 24 goals better. I see it this way, point totals in the standings involve game luck (you could blowout your opponents in wins but lose a lot of close games). The Canucks have had bad game luck. However, to mitigate game luck as a factor, you look at Goal Differential. GD involves the aforementioned puck luck. The Canucks have had good puck luck. To mitigate puck luck as a factor you look at a bunch of advanced stats. Since we’ve had bad “game luck” and good “puck luck,” I believe our current record of just above .500 is indicative of how good we are. Bc of this I would put us in the 4th out of your 8 categories. Just my 2 cents Edited December 31, 2019 by Grape 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nuxfanabroad Posted January 1, 2020 Author Share Posted January 1, 2020 On 12/31/2019 at 6:48 AM, Saved_by_Jesus said: I always like the 40 game mark because you can usually separate the teams into tiers and usually those tiers remain stable for the rest of the season. The number of tiers changes from season to season (e.g. this year Detroit is in a tier of its own given how hopeless they are), but I assess the Canucks to be in the second tier in the "contender" category: ELITE BOS; PIT; WSH; COL; STL; CAR CONTENDERS NYI; TBL; TOR; VAN; PHI Always seems like the heavier, D-oriented teams are better suited to a 2nd half surge. Also ones with stellar goaltending. So I almost completely agree w/ your evaluation. We're getting real close to being a balanced, top-level beast, that'll be very hard to knock out. Just too much % of cap wasted on some mediocre depth/penalties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nuxfanabroad Posted January 3, 2020 Author Share Posted January 3, 2020 (edited) 41 games & 48 pts is a pretty solid mid-season number. Also extrapolated stats for many skaters(by simply doubling today's pt totals) might seem optimistic, at first glance. However since we had so much roster turnover, prob took 5-10 games in Oct for guys to start gelling. Then another 10-20 games to get the lines pretty consistent. Considering these factors, I'd say it's fairly realistic to project such high totals for many of our skaters, by the time spring arrives. The lines & special teams look quite solid/established now. Edited January 3, 2020 by Nuxfanabroad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nuxfanabroad Posted February 9, 2020 Author Share Posted February 9, 2020 (edited) Current situation is the challenge they both need, & deserve. To make PO's they've gotta battle through this malaise/funk, & truly earn it. edit: for reference, 56 gp & 65 pts(1 pt up on Coilers; 1st in Div) Edited February 9, 2020 by Nuxfanabroad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nuxfanabroad Posted February 29, 2020 Author Share Posted February 29, 2020 Feb 29th: 63 gp & 74 pts. Not too shabby. Wouldn't mind 11-7-2, or 10-6-3 to finish. Looks like about 92 pts, should ensure a PO ticket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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