The DumbBrexit / #Wexit thread

[JM_]

This topic deserves its own thread. Well maybe deserve is a strong word, but instead of populating the other political threads with western separation lets bring it all to one spot to properly debate it. 

 

Lets open with equalization, the much maligned and often pointed to area of contention with Alberta. 

 

Here are some facts we can refer to:

 

1) Here's a very good article on how equalization is actually calculated: https://www.policyschool.ca/unpacking-canadas-equalization-payments-2018-19/

 

2) Here are the actual federal transfer amounts to each province: https://www.fin.gc.ca/fedprov/mtp-eng.asp

 

Jason Kenney has been and is going to continue to use the world "equalization" to whip up anger  to confuse and divide people. But the fact is, equalization isn't the largest federal transfer, its 1/2 the size of the health transfer and about the same as the social transfer, both of which Alberta receives. 

 

Even if Alberta were to receive a per capita share of the equalization program back, it would still be less than 2 billion per year, about what they'd get with if they had a 2% PST and hardly worth separating over. 

 

Its also a little quirk of equalization that only 1/2 of resource revenues are used in the calculation. Many in AB are calling for that to be 0%... but if thats how the formula worked Quebec's payments would actually go up! We can't have that now can we. 

 

When you look at the actual calculations of federal transfers on balance, Western Canada gets a fair deal. Its not even close to enough money to break up a country over.

 

___

 

Please feel free to add in other lines of debate as well that make up the main reasons for DumbBrexit. 

 

 

Edited October 28, 2019 by Jimmy McGill

[ForsbergTheGreat]

In current transfer payments there’s a lot of rule set up that determines on how much each province gives.  It’s not simply you make the most, you pay the most that people love to parrot so much. would call it.  

 

First, we have fiscal stabilization that pays up to $60 per capita to provinces that suddenly lose more than 5% of their revenue.  It’s why a province like Ontario still received $1 billion despite being a have province.  Alberta should also fall into that category since lost more than 5% the last few years but here’s the kicker, fiscal stabilization doesn’t count for natural resource revenue unless it loses over 50%.  So Alberta gets next to no benefit for that. 

 

But where Natural resources don’t account for fiscal stabilization, they sure do count for equalization.  With Equalization payments it’s not just the personal income taxes of individuals that so many here love to parrot. There are five different revenue streams taken into consideration,  personal income taxes, business income taxes, consumption taxes, property taxes and Alberta’s biggest stream natural resource revenues.  Because Alberta is able to generate large amounts of revenue from it’s natural resource it will always be on the hook for equalization payments, even if the personal and business income taxes drop below other provinces. 

 

The formula to calculated the “how much” is in place for 3 year segments.  It’s set up this way to allow for changes in the market.  With the way Alberta has been hurting in the down turn of oil the last four years, you would assume this the ideal reason for adjustment.  But Trudeau approved the current plan to remain the same for another 3 years in 2018. 

 

It’s a system that has some major flaws that many of you are not willing to admit.  One example would be A province like Quebec has government owned hydro,  they can technically artificially keep prices low to bring in lows revenue that in turn makes the province look poorer than they actually are = more equalization money.  It’s a win/win for them as lower hydro looks good on a provincial political level but also helps keep their ability to generate revenue lower than it actually should be. 

 

This is why Albertans want change, we are working on an uphill battle pulling other have not provinces up the mountain with us.  And to make matters worse, many of these provinces are trying to make life even more difficult for us by attempting to hurt our natural resource revenue. 

[thedestroyerofworlds]

What we have are a bunch of CONservative types whining about equalization without realizing that the last time there were major changes, Stephen Harper was PM, the PC's were in charge of Alberta, and the BC Liberals were in charge of BC.  They're just salty that Justin renewed the program that is similar to the one Harper had in place.

[RUPERTKBD]

3 minutes ago, thedestroyerofworlds said:

What we have are a bunch of CONservative types whining about equalization without realizing that the last time there were major changes, Stephen Harper was PM, the PC's were in charge of Alberta, and the BC Liberals were in charge of BC.  They're just salty that Justin renewed the program that is similar to the one Harper had in place.

Not only was Harper PM, but Jason Kenney was involved as well. Here's an article I found on the subject:

 

http://www.formac.ca/starrspoint/2018/12/18/the-equalization-history-that-jason-kenney-likes-to-forget/
 

Quote

 

There was a predictable skirmish over the federal equalization program last week after Finance Canada announced the details of transfer payments to the provinces for 2019-20. The fact that Quebec received a $1.4 billion increase in equalization may have been enough in normal times to attract some negative comment from politicians whose provinces do not receive equalization. But these are not normal times and even though Parliament renewed equalization to 2024 earlier this year, the program is not likely to disappear as an issue.

Alberta is facing an election in the coming months amid angst over low oil prices and pipelines. On top of that, Quebec’s new Premier waved a red flag at Albertans at this month’s first ministers’ meeting when he dismissed the possibility of the mythical Energy East pipeline crossing Quebec because there was no social acceptability for “dirty energy” from the oil sands.

Legault’s comments were condemned across the board, but Jason Kenney, the man who would be Premier of Alberta, was quick to bring equalization into it. “PM Trudeau gave Quebec a veto over any future Energy East Pipeline,” he tweeted. “Premier Legault exercised that veto, saying oil is ‘not socially acceptable in Quebec.’ Now QC gets $1.4 billion more in equalization for a total of $13 billion, thanks in part to Alberta’s oil industry.”

The first part of Kenney’s tweet – about Trudeau handing a veto to Legault – verges on Trumpian in its mendacity. Energy East’s promoter abandoned the project well before Legault became premier of Quebec, and has shown no interest in reviving it. As for Quebec’s increase in equalization, only a tiny fraction of which can be attributed to “Alberta oil,” Kenney should start to admit that the formula delivering the increase is the handiwork of the federal Conservative government he was part of.

The Harper Conservatives, Kenney among them, brought in a new equalization formula with the 2007 budget. The more generous formula – up 20 per cent between 2006 and 2008 – also contained provisions on treatment of property taxation that delivered an even larger increase to Quebec. Quebec’s equalization payment went up 50 per cent from $4.8 billion to $7.2 billion over the two years.

 

.....but it wasn't all bad for Alberta.....

Quote

Alberta benefitted

I have posted on this topic a few times, most recently here, pointing out that not only was Jason Kenney part of the government that crafted the equalization formula that he now suggests favors Quebec, but also that changes to the overall federal transfer system brought in by the Harper government and continued under the Liberals have in fact benefitted Alberta more than any other province.

That’s because the new equalization formula was only part of a package of changes to the transfer system that included equal per-capita cash transfers for health and social programs. Although equalization gets more attention, it represents just over 25 per cent of the $75 billion in major federal transfers to the provinces, while health and social transfers will total $55 billion in 2019.

It was acknowledged at the time that the move to per-capita funding for health and social transfers would benefit the wealthier provinces, but the enriched equalization was supposed to compensate the less wealthy ones for those losses. Unfortunately that has not happened, for several reasons. To recap:

• In 2008 the government Kenny was part of deemed that the sudden rise in oil prices and royalties made it too expensive to fully equalize provinces’ fiscal capacity, and so put a ceiling on equalization, limiting increases to GDP growth;
• In 2011 the Conservatives announced that the six per cent a year increases in health transfers would end in 2017, to be replaced by increases tied to the rise in the GDP;
• In 2013, the Conservatives decided that an extra $800 million in health cash to bring Alberta to the same per-capita cash amount as the other provinces would come from the overall health transfer allotment, reducing increases to the other nine provinces from the usual 6 per cent range to anywhere from 0 (Newfoundland) to 4.3 per cent (Saskatchewan);
• Making matters worse, future increases to CHT would be calculated on the diminished 2014-5 base.

As a result, with the exception of Quebec, equalization-receiving provinces (ERPs) like Nova Scotia received lower than average increases in total federal transfers – that’s equalization, CHT and CST – over the last 12 years.

 

Sounds to me like Kenney is playing Albertans and if the Election thread is any indicator, it's working.....

[Alflives]

Western provinces get ripped off for sure.  We pay way more to the feds than we get back.  Quebec (especially) and Ontario will continue to get the best deals because they have the most votes.  

When we use government statistics to support a case for the government, I wonder about those statistics credibility.  

How many military people are there in BC?  How many in the eastern Provinces?  

When the gravy train of the West runs out of food to feed the troughs of Quebec and Ontario, that's when things out this way will become really nasty.  Right now our lives are all cushy and comfy.  It's when the feds introduce austerity measures (which will for sure hurt us the most out here) that people will really get on board for WEXIT.   

[inane]

6 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Western provinces get ripped off for sure.  We pay way more to the feds than we get back.  Quebec (especially) and Ontario will continue to get the best deals because they have the most votes.  

When we use government statistics to support a case for the government, I wonder about those statistics credibility.  

How many military people are there in BC?  How many in the eastern Provinces?  

When the gravy train of the West runs out of food to feed the troughs of Quebec and Ontario, that's when things out this way will become really nasty.  Right now our lives are all cushy and comfy.  It's when the feds introduce austerity measures (which will for sure hurt us the most out here) that people will really get on board for WEXIT.   

 

[ForsbergTheGreat]

18 minutes ago, RUPERTKBD said:

Not only was Harper PM, but Jason Kenney was involved as well. Here's an article I found on the subject:

 

http://www.formac.ca/starrspoint/2018/12/18/the-equalization-history-that-jason-kenney-likes-to-forget/
 

.....but it wasn't all bad for Alberta.....

Sounds to me like Kenney is playing Albertans and if the Election thread is any indicator, it's working.....

You guys seems to not understand that the price of oil was a lot different in 2007. In 2008 it was the highest point it’s been over the last 20 years. Oil didn’t average below $85 Per barrel until 2015. (When Trudeau took over). 
 

Yet despite this huge economic down turn Alberta is Still expected to contribute as if it was still generating revenue like it was in 2014. How is that fair? It’s not and it’s why Alberta is up in arms about seeing some alterations. 
 

If you’re raking in a 7 figure salary, letting the trophy wife go out and hit the mall on a shopping spree every month isn’t something to bat an eye about. But if all of the sudden you get a job demotion to now only barely crack the 6 figure mark, things start to change.  If the wife has to continue her spending habits, eventually you’ll be looking to spilt. 
 

 

Edited October 28, 2019 by ForsbergTheGreat

[inane]

2 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

You guys seems to not understand that the price of oil was a lot different in 2007. In 2008 it was the highest point it’s been over the last 20 years. Oil didn’t average below $85 Per barrel until 2015. (When Trudeau took over). 
 

Yet despite this huge economic down turn Alberta is Still expected to contribute as if it was still generating revenue like it was in 2014. How is that fair? It’s not and it’s why Alberta is up in arms about seeing some alterations. 
 

If you’re raking in a 7 figure salary, letting the trophy wife go out and hit the mall on a shopping spree every month isn’t something to bat an eye about. But if all of the sudden you get a job demotion to now only barely crack the 6 figure mark, things start to change.  If the wife has to continue her spending habits, eventually you’ll be looking to spilt. 
 

 

Sounds like a good case to diversify your economy so you're not beholden to this all or nothing paradigm. 

[RUPERTKBD]

Just now, ForsbergTheGreat said:

You guys seems to not understand that the price of oil was a lot different in 2007. In 2008 it was the highest point it’s been over the last 20 years. Oil didn’t average below $85 Per barrel until 2015. (When Trudeau took over). 
 

Yet despite this huge economic down turn Alberta is Still expected to contribute as if it was still generating revenue like it was in 2014. How is that fair? It’s not and it’s why Alberta is up in arms about seeing some alterations. 
 

If you’re raking in a 7 figure salary, letting the trophy wife go out and hit the mall on a shopping spree every month isn’t something to bat an eye about. But if all of the sudden you get a job demotion to now only barely crack the 6 figure mark, things start to change.  If the wife has to continue spending habits, eventually you’ll be looking to spilt.

So when Harper and Kenney et al were putting this together, they were unaware that commodity prices fluctuate?

 

Seems like a pretty big swing and miss for a so-called fiscally responsible party...

[ForsbergTheGreat]

12 minutes ago, RUPERTKBD said:

So when Harper and Kenney et al were putting this together, they were unaware that commodity prices fluctuate?

 

Seems like a pretty big swing and miss for a so-called fiscally responsible party...

Do you not understand how it works?

 

see this is what creates so much anger. Your lack of understanding is how you justify passing off your judgment and claim it they were incompetent. .
 

equalization payments are evaluated every 3 years. This allows you to adjust when markets crash or flourish. They weren’t locking into anything long term, thus calling them “idiots” to setting up something during a different market era is really stupid and lacks logic.
 

But, hey don’t let logic get in the way of calling conservatives stupid. 

 

 

[ForsbergTheGreat]

22 minutes ago, inane said:

Sounds like a good case to diversify your economy so you're not beholden to this all or nothing paradigm. 

Alberta does need to diversify its economy there’s no question about that. 

[RUPERTKBD]

1 minute ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

Do you not understand how it works?

 

see this is what creates so much anger. Your lack of understanding is how you justify passing off your judgment and claim it they were incompetent. .
 

equalization payments are evaluated every 3 years. This allows you to adjust when markets crash or flourish. They weren’t locking into anything long term, thus calling them “idiots” to setting up something during a different market era is really stupid and lacks logic.
 

But, hey don’t let logic get in the way of calling conservatives stupid. 

 

 

Who called them "idiots"? The only one throwing insults around is you....as usual.

[nuckin_futz]

[6of1_halfdozenofother]

9 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

Alberta does need to diversify its economy there’s no question about that. 

Then that begs the question: what was stopping them when oil prices were high?  Seems like successive Alberta governments did not have the foresight to plan ahead.

[Philthy]

Within reason everything has up's and downs.. Western Canada has been supporting Eastern Canada long enough and still cant even garnish a right to even have their vote heard. When was the last time the east has put up for equalization payments? to use the last 4 years in perspective to the last 35 with how the west has supported is bogus.

Questions to ask, Is this system fair to the west? Why hasn't electoral reform happened?

 

The east shouldn't hold all the cards, parity and fairness should be in the fore front for this country, the pride for diversity can take a back seat.

[aGENT]

13 minutes ago, Boone Jenner said:

Why hasn't electoral reform happened?

Harper had an opportunity to bring it in when he was in power...wonder why he didn't?  

 

(And FTR, I'm still ROYALLY pissed the Libs reneged on it as well).

[ForsbergTheGreat]

13 minutes ago, 6of1_halfdozenofother said:

Then that begs the question: what was stopping them when oil prices were high?  Seems like successive Alberta governments did not have the foresight to plan ahead.

It’s not easy to create an economy out of nothing. Resources are the main drivers of a provinces economy. and they have tried.
 

This started in the 80 and 90’s when the govt provided loans and equity stakes to companies in the non energy sector.  And they even tried to open up for investment firms. It hasn’t been that successful but with that said today we are more diversified then ever. 
 

They focused on renewable energy they already have the largest wind farm in Canada. And they are in the process of building Canada’s biggest solar farm. 

[Philthy]

1 minute ago, aGENT said:

Harper had an opportunity to bring it in when he was in power...wonder why he didn't?  

 

(And FTR, I'm still ROYALLY pissed the Libs reneged on it as well).

And every PM before him, not one person who was running had electoral reform in their parties platform. 

[Ryan Strome]

1 hour ago, thedestroyerofworlds said:

What we have are a bunch of CONservative types whining about equalization without realizing that the last time there were major changes, Stephen Harper was PM, the PC's were in charge of Alberta, and the BC Liberals were in charge of BC.  They're just salty that Justin renewed the program that is similar to the one Harper had in place.

 

1 hour ago, RUPERTKBD said:

Not only was Harper PM, but Jason Kenney was involved as well. Here's an article I found on the subject:

 

http://www.formac.ca/starrspoint/2018/12/18/the-equalization-history-that-jason-kenney-likes-to-forget/
 

.....but it wasn't all bad for Alberta.....

Sounds to me like Kenney is playing Albertans and if the Election thread is any indicator, it's working.....

Just so you two know this is all well known. It's why guys like me hate SH and JK they sold out Alberta for the east again. 

42 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

Why? You mean you don't want to debate this in 3 threads? 

11 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Harper had an opportunity to bring it in when he was in power...wonder why he didn't?  

 

(And FTR, I'm still ROYALLY pissed the Libs reneged on it as well).

Did Harper campaign on it? 

I know JT said very clear 2015 would be the last FPTP election....

5 minutes ago, Boone Jenner said:

And every PM before him, not one person who was running had electoral reform in their parties platform. 

Exactly but he likes to only blame conservatives. 

[JM_]

1 hour ago, Alflives said:

Western provinces get ripped off for sure.  We pay way more to the feds than we get back.  Quebec (especially) and Ontario will continue to get the best deals because they have the most votes.  

When we use government statistics to support a case for the government, I wonder about those statistics credibility.  

How many military people are there in BC?  How many in the eastern Provinces?  

When the gravy train of the West runs out of food to feed the troughs of Quebec and Ontario, that's when things out this way will become really nasty.  Right now our lives are all cushy and comfy.  It's when the feds introduce austerity measures (which will for sure hurt us the most out here) that people will really get on board for WEXIT.   

I didn't quote government stats Alf, I used the actual money transferred and the article explaining how equalization is calculated is pure bean counting, no spin. Thats why I picked them, so we'd all have a real base of info to argue from.